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Wednesday, July 27, 2005

OH-2: Five Points & $285,000

Posted by Tim Tagaris

2004: 72% to 28%
2002: 74% to 26%
2000: 74% to 23%
1998: 76% to 24%

In fact, only one Democrat has received more than 30% of the vote in over 20 years. With less than one week to go, this race is within 5 points. And not only is it within five points, but Jean Schmidt is tanking. And no, I am not sitting in my hotel room with a .pdf file in-front of me. Here is what I am hearing, so take it fwiw...

The NRCC conducted a poll earlier this week (there is another poll in the field, but no idea by who), that showed the poor numbers. The numbers were leaked by a Republican who is part of a group that doesn't see eye to eye with Schmidt on certain issues.

In response, the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee has just dumped $285,000 into an astounding 1800+ point ad buy that will start running Friday through Tuesday. This is public record.

Now Jean Schmidt is scurrying to round up to volunteers from her primary opposition in a last ditch effort to counter Paul Hackett's overwhelming advantage on-the-ground. To the shock of the GOP, Hackett is also going toe-to-toe on television as well in terms of dollars. The free press because of Paul's service has been huge as well. I overheard the campaign manager (I believe) of Schmidt's campaign say to a Hackett staffer, "I have no idea how the hell you guys are raising this much money." They are worried.

I don't know what to say, other than this is a grassroots takeover. Whatever Paul Hackett accomplishes in this race will be because of us. The work done on the blogs, the volunteer and fundraising support of DFA, and Howard Dean's pledge to fight it out in all 50 states; if MoveOn were to jump in, the future of the Democratic Party will be completely represented in overcoming the most insurmountable of odds. When the ballots were cast on November 2nd, this is the moment we all looked towards. When Howard Dean was elected DNC Chair, this was the moment we all looked towards. In the first federal election since the fiasco in 2004, the grassroots of the party banding together, taking on the most dauting of tasks, and winning. Who would have thought we had such an opportunity, so soon.

While Jean Schmidt and her allies run a slash-and-burn campaign, attempting to "Swift Boat" Paul Hackett, the message is simple, if we can win here, we can win anywhere.

Down the stretch we go.

Paul Hackett's ActBlue Page

Voluteer: volunteer@hackettforcongress.com -- they have housing available

Call Cincinnati Talk Radio All Week (LINK - Scroll Down)

UPDATE: Some guy has been walking down the street outside Hackett HQ a few hours ago, taking down everyones license plates and making phones calls while walking in and out of Republican HQ across the street.

Posted at 08:48 PM in Ohio | Technorati


Well, there's $50, as much for the smears as for anything else.

The difficult part will be replicating the effect in an election year, when all of the races are running simultaneously.

Posted by: paperwight [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 27, 2005 09:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Tim, in a summer of discontent (CAFTA, energy bill, SCOTUS) you and Paul are a beacon of hope. I am hanging on every word you write, man. The other night I updated that post about 30 times hoping that "Update 4" would be complete. LOL!

Listen, man. It occurred to me that Paul can make the bimbo pay instantly if she votes for CAFTA. Is ther any plan for TV ads nailing her for her vote?

(I assume she will dutifully vote for the miserable thing.)

Hang in there. There are thousands of us with you in spirit.

Tell Paul we're all behind him.

Posted by: Thresholder [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 27, 2005 09:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Does anybody have a link to this poll?

Posted by: Trinhmaster [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 27, 2005 09:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

heh. There never was an update four, was there?

Sorry bout that, Internet connection was terrible in that room. Thanks for the kind words though.

As for CAFTA, she is not a house member yet, and the vote is tonight, so note vote.


No link to the poll, I described above how I came to the information.

Posted by: Tim Tagaris [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 27, 2005 10:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Tim! I just realized that about CAFTA. It hit me about 5 minutes ago.

This is a SPECIAL election and she is not an incumbent!


Posted by: Thresholder [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 27, 2005 10:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Not that it matters in Ohio, but I believe it is illegal to search plate numbers without meeting certain criteria.

Posted by: Susie from Philly [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 27, 2005 11:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Remember which party controls the counties in Hackett's district, and which party will be ultimately in control of counting votes. Five points in the polls is encouraging, but not enough to predict a Hackett win.

Posted by: buma [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 28, 2005 01:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

don't forget - a Democrat, Tom Luken, once won this seat in a special election during Watergate - the similarities are erie

Posted by: calebfaux [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 28, 2005 05:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment