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Friday, September 10, 2004

Two SUSA Polls: OH & NC

Posted by DavidNYC

[Note: I originally had the Ohio numbers swapped. Bush is ahead 50-47.]

Survey USA has new polls out for Ohio and North Carolina.

Ohio first (PDF) (likely voters, no trendlines):

Kerry: 47
Bush: 50
Other/Undecided: 4
(MoE: ��3.8%)

SUSA is one of the more prolific polling outfits, so I'm surprised that this is their first survey of Ohio. Without trendlines, it's hard to know where this poll falls on the map, but the results seem to comport with everyone's expectations. Of course, you can never really how a given firm's definition of "likely voters" can skew their results.

Kerry apparently has the base fired up here: He gets 89% of Democrats, while Bush gets 91% of Republicans. Somewhat surprising (to me, anyhow) is that Bush leads 51-41 among independents. That might make sense, though, if that group includes swing voters who might be easily swayed by all the GOP convention coverage from last week.

And North Carolina (PDF) (likely voters, mid-August in parens):

Kerry: 46 (45)
Bush: 50 (51)
Other/Undecided: 5 (4)
(MoE: ��4.2%)

Naysayers, you're gonna have a lot of `splainin' to do. Since Edwards was tapped, no poll from any outfit that I'm aware of has shown the race wider than seven points, and most show it a lot closer. (The only exception was a Gallup poll which showed likely voters preferring Bush by a 15-point margin. As we know, though, Gallup's LV model leans heavily Republican, for whatever reason - and, not surprisingly, their RVs showed a seven-point race.)

SUSA actually once had the race out at seven points, back in late July, just before the DNC. So if we extend the trendlines back that far, the Kerry-Edwards ticket has shown gains in two successive polls. This isn't a fluke, either. Democratic Gov. Mike Easley now has a 15-point advantage in his race, up from 7 in August, and Erskine Bowles, running for Senate, saw his lead jump from 8 points to 10.

As I always caution, I don't think it's likely that we'll win NC. And I think there are better battlegrounds for us to spend (most of) our money on. But there's no denying that we're competitive here, and that barring any shocking developments, Democrats will do well in North Carolina this fall - if not at the presidential level, then certainly in the Senate and State House. I should add that the NC House of Representatives is tied - 60 Dems to 60 Repubs. A strong year for the Blue Team in this state could definitely push this branch of government our way.

Posted at 03:22 AM in North Carolina, Ohio | Technorati


Hey, I never said that Kerry would lose NC in a rout. He will lose, but it will be by anywhere from 4% to 8%. If he has extra $$$ to spend, sure, spend it here. But if not, spend it in states he might actually win, like OH, FL, WI, PA, MO, MN, NM, and MI. Regarding Bowles and Easley, I expect them to win regardless of who wins the presidency. NC is not nearly as conservative as OH, for example, and hopefully it never will be.

Posted by: Pepe at September 10, 2004 07:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

DavidNYC---there's an error in your Ohio result: it should be Bush 50, Kerry 47, not the other way around. Still statistically tied, though.

Posted by: science at September 10, 2004 08:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Things aren't as bad as the media makes them to be. Zogby, for what it is worth, is showing Kerry ahead in CO on their September 3 poll. Kerry 46%, Bush 45%, Nadar 1%. Of course, it is pre-convention and only 1 point.

Posted by: DFuller at September 10, 2004 09:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Kerry is leading in Ohio after the RNC? Thatis surpising to me? I hope we see more polls like this. Also, NC still seems reasonably close.

Posted by: Rock_nj at September 10, 2004 10:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment


No. Kerry is behind in OH 50% to 47% according to the Survey USA Poll. The original post was backwards.

Posted by: DFuller at September 10, 2004 10:37 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Still, not a bad poll for Kerry at this point. Looks like Bush's bounce is fading. People tend to come to their senses after the conventions. I look forward to the debates. Too bad Bush is poised to duck out of the one debate that might be really worthy, the one with the public answering questions.

Posted by: Rock_nj at September 10, 2004 10:50 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm actually nervous about the debates. Everybody keeps the expectations bar impossibly low for Bush and impossibly high for Kerry. Most Americans simply expect Bush to perform as abysmally in debates as he has in governance....and when he fares a rung better than the lowest denominator, he suddenly doesn't seem like such a bad choice. Unless Kerry absolutely pulverizes Bush in all (or both) of the debates, I'm not expecting the needle to move much. If, God forbid, Kerry's performances are perceived as poorer than Bush, we could see current poll margins hold.

The bottom line is that Kerry needs to hit a homerun in the debates while Bush merely needs a bloop infield single. Not a comfortable situation for the good guys.

Posted by: Mark at September 10, 2004 11:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Kerry is a fairly decent debater. He actually seems like a pretty nice and easy guy in interviews. I think he'll do well in debates. Bush will also hold his own. But, it will be a chance for Kerry to introduce himself to voters. The reason Bush doesn't want 3 debates is because it gives voters more of a chance to get to know Kerry, not a good thing for an incumbent.

Posted by: Rock_nj at September 10, 2004 02:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I was thinking today that FL's three hurricanes are probably good for Kerry. Sure, Bush will be down there pretending that he "really had to pull some strings" to get them disaster relief, but ultimately, Bush and the Republicans main appeal is that they protect against human threats, not against mother nature. By Republican reasoning, you ought to have prepared for whatever natural catastrophes you may be subjected to, and shame on you if you have to rely on some kind of nanny state to bail you out. They'll pretend that this isn't really true, or more accurately that somehow FL's hurricanes aren't among the threats that individuals (according to GOP dogma) should be left to deal with on their own, but they've already painted their spots on themselves, and they're hard pressed to change them.

Posted by: Marsden at September 10, 2004 05:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I guess "are probably good for Kerry" in my last post should have been "will help Kerry's election chances."

Stay dry, Florida!

Posted by: Marsden at September 10, 2004 05:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yes, Florida might really get hammered this time around. This hurricane is a monster. It could really do damage. People might vote Democratic for relief.

Posted by: Rock_nj at September 10, 2004 08:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Politics aside, let's just hope and pray that Ivan misses the hurricane-battered State of Florida. Those poor people in the Sunshine State have had too much to contend with already, and Ivan appears to be far more dangerous than either Charley or Frances. My thoughts and prayers also go to the folks in Jamaica, where Ivan is due to make a direct hit with 145 MPH sustained winds.

Posted by: Pepe at September 10, 2004 09:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The worst-case scenario would be for Ivan to hit New Orleans. I've heard that if ever a category five hurricane hit low-lying southern Louisiana, 50,000 would be killed since there are only two main arteries in and out of the city and it could never empty out in time to avoid storm damage. Obviously, this would be devastating. Unfortunately, it's more a matter of when, not if, this ever happens.

Posted by: Mark at September 10, 2004 11:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It looks like the worst of Ivan is going to miss Jamacia. Whew! But, that's bad news for Cuba and the U.S. Ivan will remain extremeley strong and pass over the thinest part of Cuba. It will also be over the Gulf of Mexico for a period of time before it hits the Gulf Coast of Florida, probably the upper coast. I agree this is not time for politics. This storm is very dangerous. Let's hope people get out of harms way and damage is minimal.

Posted by: Rock_nj at September 11, 2004 05:35 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment