With filing deadlines passing in many states, the House Open Seat Watch series is beginning to come to an end. That said, we’ve seen quite a bit of action since our last installment in January, so it’s well past time for another, perhaps final, update.
As always, we’ve compiled three separate lists: one of confirmed vacancies/retirements, another of potential open seats, and a third – available below the fold – of names that have dropped off the watch list. As always, please note that “age” in our charts reflects the incumbent’s age on election day, 2010. Blue boxes indicate a new entry (or an incumbent who has been shuffled between categories). All tables are sortable – just click on any column header to sort.
Definite Retirements/Vacancies:
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-07 | Artur Davis | D | D+18 | Running for Governor |
| AR-01 | Marion Berry | D | R+8 | Retiring |
| AR-02 | Vic Snyder | D | R+5 | Retiring |
| AR-03 | John Boozman | R | R+16 | Running for Senate |
| AZ-03 | John Shadegg | R | R+9 | Retiring |
| CA-19 | George Radanovich | R | R+9 | Retiring |
| CA-33 | Diane Watson | D | D+35 | Retiring |
| DE-AL | Mike Castle | R | D+7 | Running for Senate |
| FL-12 | Adam Putnam | R | R+6 | Running for Ag Comm’r |
| FL-17 | Kendrick Meek | D | D+34 | Running for Senate |
| FL-19 | Robert Wexler | D | D+15 | Resigned to join non-profit |
| FL-21 | Lincoln Diaz-Balart | R | R+5 | Retiring (Declined to seek Senate appointment) |
| FL-25 | Mario Diaz-Balart | R | R+5 | Running for FL-21 |
| GA-07 | John Linder | R | R+16 | Retiring |
| GA-09 | Nathan Deal | R | R+28 | Running for Governor (Resigned) |
| HI-01 | Neil Abercrombie | D | D+11 | Running for Governor (Resigned) |
| IL-10 | Mark Kirk | R | D+6 | Running for Senate |
| IN-04 | Steve Buyer | R | R+14 | Retiring |
| IN-08 | Brad Ellsworth | D | R+3 | Running for Senate |
| KS-01 | Jerry Moran | R | R+23 | Running for Senate |
| KS-03 | Dennis Moore | D | R+3 | Retiring |
| KS-04 | Todd Tiahrt | R | R+14 | Running for Senate |
| LA-03 | Charlie Melancon | D | R+12 | Running for Senate |
| MA-10 | Bill Delahunt | D | D+5 | Retiring |
| MI-02 | Peter Hoekstra | R | R+7 | Running for Governor |
| MI-03 | Vern Ehlers | R | R+6 | Retiring |
| MO-07 | Roy Blunt | R | R+17 | Running for Senate |
| NH-02 | Paul Hodes | D | D+3 | Running for Senate |
| NY-29 | Eric Massa | D | R+5 | Resigned |
| OK-05 | Mary Fallin | R | R+13 | Running for Governor |
| PA-07 | Joe Sestak | D | D+3 | Running for Senate |
| PA-12 | John Murtha | D | R+1 | Died on 2/8/2010 |
| RI-01 | Patrick Kennedy | D | D+13 | Retiring |
| SC-01 | Henry Brown | R | R+10 | Retiring |
| SC-03 | Gresham Barrett | R | R+17 | Running for Governor |
| TN-03 | Zach Wamp | R | R+13 | Running for Governor |
| TN-06 | Bart Gordon | D | R+13 | Retiring |
| TN-08 | John Tanner | D | R+6 | Retiring |
| WA-03 | Brian Baird | D | D+0 | Retiring |
We’ve got a whopping 13 new open seats on the big board — seven of them Democratic, six of them Republican. Sadly, though, the only competitive races we’ll likely see from this fresh batch of opens will come on Democratic-held turf (unless Dems can convince Joe Garcia to give FL-25 another crack).
Our list of potential retirements has been whittled down considerably with 14 incumbents dropping off the watch list. We’ve added only Jason Altmire and Mike Arcuri, who have attracted potential primary opponents for their recent votes against healthcare reform. (UPDATE: And Carolyn Maloney, too, due to her challenge from unabashed Wall Street Democrat Reshma Saujani.)
Potential Retirements/Vacancies:
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-AL | Don Young | R | R+13 | 77 | Age/Legal issues |
| AL-05 | Parker Griffith | R | R+12 | 68 | Primary challenge |
| CA-36 | Jane Harman | D | D+12 | 65 | Scandal/Primary challenge |
| CA-42 | Gary Miller | R | R+10 | 62 | Primary challenge |
| CA-44 | Ken Calvert | R | R+6 | 57 | Primary challenge |
| FL-02 | Allen Boyd | D | R+6 | 65 | Primary challenge (Declined Senate run) |
| GA-04 | Hank Johnson | D | D+24 | 56 | Primary challenge |
| IN-03 | Mark Souder | R | R+14 | 60 | Primary challenge |
| IN-05 | Dan Burton | R | R+17 | 72 | Primary challenge |
| MI-01 | Bart Stupak | D | R+3 | 58 | Primary challenge |
| MI-12 | Sander Levin | D | D+12 | 79 | Age/Primary challenge |
| MI-13 | Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick | D | D+31 | 65 | Primary challenge |
| NC-10 | Patrick McHenry | R | R+17 | 35 | Primary challenge |
| NY-14 | Carolyn Maloney | D | D+6 | 62 | Primary challenge (Declined Senate run) |
| NY-15 | Charlie Rangel | D | D+41 | 80 | Age/legal issues/primary challenge |
| NY-24 | Michael Arcuri | D | R+2 | 51 | Possible primary challenge |
| PA-04 | Jason Altmire | D | R+6 | 42 | Possible primary challenge |
| PA-11 | Paul Kanjorski | D | D+4 | 73 | Primary challenge (won’t retire) |
| PA-19 | Todd Platts | R | R+12 | 48 | Seeking GAO appointment/Primary challenge |
| SC-04 | Bob Inglis | R | R+15 | 51 | Primary challenge |
| TN-09 | Steve Cohen | D | D+23 | 61 | Primary challenge |
| TX-06 | Joe Barton | R | R+15 | 61 | Possible Senate run |
A list of incumbents whose names we’ve removed from the Open Seat Watch is available below the fold.
Off the Watch List:
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-01 | Jo Bonner | R | R+14 | 50 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| AL-02 | Bobby Bright | D | R+16 | 58 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| CA-12 | Jackie Speier | D | D+23 | 60 | Won’t run for AG |
| CA-24 | Elton Gallegly | R | R+4 | 66 | Won’t retire |
| CA-31 | Xavier Becerra | D | D+29 | 52 | Declined USTR/Commerce Sec’y |
| CA-47 | Loretta Sanchez | D | D+4 | 50 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| CT-03 | Rosa DeLauro | D | D+9 | 67 | Considered for Labor Sec’y |
| FL-03 | Corrine Brown | D | D+18 | 63 | Declined Senate run |
| FL-05 | Ginny Brown-Waite | R | R+9 | 67 | Won’t retire |
| FL-10 | Bill Young | R | R+1 | 79 | Won’t retire |
| FL-13 | Vern Buchanan | R | R+6 | 59 | Declined Senate/gubernatorial run |
| FL-14 | Connie Mack | R | R+11 | 43 | Declined Senate run |
| FL-20 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz | D | D+13 | 44 | Declined Senate run |
| FL-22 | Ron Klein | D | D+1 | 53 | Declined Senate run |
| GA-01 | Jack Kingston | R | R+16 | 55 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| GA-03 | Lynn Westmoreland | R | R+19 | 60 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| GA-08 | Jim Marshall | D | R+10 | 62 | Never expressed interest in gubernatorial run |
| IA-01 | Bruce Braley | D | D+5 | 53 | Declined Senate run |
| IA-03 | Leonard Boswell | D | D+1 | 76 | Won’t retire |
| IA-05 | Steve King | R | R+9 | 61 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| IL-07 | Danny Davis | D | D+35 | 69 | Withdrew from run for local office |
| IL-06 | Peter Roskam | R | D+0 | 49 | Declined Senate run |
| IL-09 | Jan Schakowsky | D | D+20 | 66 | Declined Senate run |
| IL-13 | Judy Biggert | R | R+1 | 73 | Won’t retire |
| IN-06 | Mike Pence | R | R+10 | 51 | Declined Senate run |
| IN-09 | Baron Hill | D | R+6 | 57 | Declined Senate run |
| KY-01 | Ed Whitfield | R | R+15 | 67 | Declined Senate Run |
| KY-06 | Ben Chandler | D | R+9 | 51 | Declined Senate Run/won’t retire |
| MD-04 | Donna Edwards | D | D+31 | 52 | Avoided primary challenge |
| MD-06 | Roscoe Bartlett | R | R+13 | 84 | Won’t retire |
| MI-08 | Mike Rogers | R | R+2 | 47 | Never expressed interest in gubernatorial run |
| MI-09 | Gary Peters | D | D+2 | 51 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| MI-10 | Candice Miller | R | R+5 | 56 | Has not expressed interest in gubernatorial run |
| MN-06 | Michele Bachmann | R | R+7 | 54 | Has not expressed interest in gubernatorial run |
| MO-01 | Lacy Clay | D | D+27 | 54 | Has not expressed interest in Senate run |
| MO-08 | Jo Ann Emerson | R | R+15 | 60 | Declined Senate run |
| NC-02 | Bob Etheridge | D | R+2 | 69 | Declined Senate run |
| NC-06 | Howard Coble | R | R+18 | 79 | Won’t retire |
| NC-07 | Mike McIntyre | D | R+5 | 54 | Declined Senate run |
| NC-11 | Heath Shuler | D | R+6 | 38 | Declined Senate run |
| ND-AL | Earl Pomeroy | D | R+10 | 58 | Declined Senate run |
| NH-01 | Carol Shea-Porter | D | R+0 | 57 | Declined Senate run |
| NJ-02 | Frank LoBiondo | R | D+1 | 64 | Not tapped for Lt. Governor |
| NV-02 | Dean Heller | R | R+5 | 50 | Has not expressed interest in gube run/ Declined Senate run |
| NY-02 | Steve Israel | D | D+4 | 52 | Declined Senate run |
| NY-03 | Peter King | R | R+4 | 66 | Declined Senate run (Twice) |
| NY-04 | Carolyn McCarthy | D | D+26 | 66 | Declined Senate run |
| NY-09 | Anthony Weiner | D | D+5 | 46 | Declined mayoral run |
| NY-16 | Jose Serrano | D | D+41 | 67 | Declined Senate run |
| MN-07 | Collin Peterson | D | R+5 | 66 | Won’t retire |
| MO-04 | Ike Skelton | D | R+14 | 78 | Won’t retire |
| OH-08 | John Boehner | R | R+14 | 60 | Averted primary challenge |
| OH-17 | Tim Ryan | D | D+12 | 37 | Declined Senate/Lt. Gov. run |
| OH-18 | Zack Space | D | R+7 | 49 | Declined Senate run |
| OK-04 | Tom Cole | R | R+18 | 61 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| OR-02 | Greg Walden | R | R+10 | 53 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| OR-04 | Peter DeFazio | D | D+2 | 63 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| PA-06 | Jim Gerlach | R | D+4 | 55 | Aborted gubernatorial bid |
| PA-08 | Patrick Murphy | D | D+2 | 37 | Never expressed interest in Senate run |
| PA-13 | Allyson Schwartz | D | D+7 | 62 | Declined Senate run |
| PA-17 | Tim Holden | D | R+6 | 64 | Won’t retire |
| SC-05 | John Spratt | D | R+7 | 68 | Won’t retire |
| SD-AL | Stephanie Herseth | D | R+9 | 39 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| TN-01 | Phil Roe | R | R+21 | 65 | Avoided primary challenge |
| TN-04 | Lincoln Davis | D | R+13 | 67 | Declined gubernatorial run/won’t retire |
| TX-03 | Sam Johnson | R | R+14 | 80 | Won’t retire |
| TX-04 | Ralph Hall | R | R+21 | 87 | Survived primary challenge (won’t retire) |
| TX-10 | Mike McCaul | R | R+10 | 48 | Declined AG run |
| TX-17 | Chet Edwards | D | R+20 | 58 | Declined VA Sec’y/won’t retire |
| TX-18 | Sheila Jackson-Lee | D | D+24 | 63 | Survived primary challenge |
| TX-23 | Ciro Rodriguez | D | R+4 | 63 | Survived primary challenge |
| UT-02 | Jim Matheson | D | R+15 | 50 | Declined gubernatorial run/won’t retire |
| UT-03 | Jason Chaffetz | R | R+26 | 43 | Declined Senate run |
| VA-09 | Rick Boucher | D | R+11 | 64 | Won’t retire |
| VA-10 | Frank Wolf | R | R+2 | 71 | Won’t retire |
| WI-01 | Paul Ryan | R | R+2 | 40 | Declined Senate run/Declined gube run |
| WI-03 | Ron Kind | D | D+4 | 47 | Declined gubernatorial run |
How about NY-14 where Carolyn Maloney is being primaried by Reshma Saujani?