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SSP Daily Digest: 6/4

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 2:45 PM EDT


CT-Sen: Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons needs to look like one of those allegedly-not-quite-extinct moderate New England Republicans in order to get elected in Connecticut, but he's not doing himself any favors by appearing with Newt Gingrich at the annual Prescott Bush Awards Dinner. With a large Puerto Rican population in Connecticut, Simmons probably doesn't want to be anywhere near Sonia Sotomayor's loudest and most toxic critic. Another problem for Simmons: businessman Tom Foley, the former ambassador to Ireland, made his official entry into the GOP primary field today. Foley, unlike Simmons, has deep pockets he can self-fund with.

MN-Sen: Sources close to Norm Coleman are suggesting he won't appeal at the federal level if he loses his case with the Minnesota Supreme Court. Republicans still publicly say they'll try to stop any Dem efforts to seat Al Franken until Coleman has conceded or exhausted his appeals. John Cornyn has sent some mixed signals, though, saying it's "entirely" Coleman's decision whether to keep fighting and that he's "amazed that Sen. Coleman's been willing to persevere as long as he has."

NV-Sen: Wondering why the GOP is having a hard time attracting a challenger to supposedly-vulnerable Harry Reid? Maybe it's because of his deep levels of support among much of the state's Republican establishment. The Reid camp released a list of 60 GOP endorsers, including, most prominently, soon-to-be-ex-First Lady (and former NV-02 candidate) Dawn Gibbons, Reno mayor Bob Cashell, and, in a move guaranteed to nail down the key 18-29 demographic, Wayne Newton.

NH-Sen: Could it be that the NRSC could actually be stuck running Ovide Lamontagne against Rep. Paul Hodes? Just the very fact that the NRSC is talking to Lamontagne (a businessman whose one claim to fame is losing the 1996 governor's race to Jeanne Shaheen) with an apparently straight face should be a red flag that their top-tier possibilities (ex-Sen. John Sununu, ex-Rep. Charlie Bass) aren't looking likely.

NY-Sen-B: Joe Biden reportedly had a sit-down earlier this week with Rep. Carolyn Maloney, who may or may not be running in the Senate primary against Kirsten Gillibrand. Presumably the meeting would contain some of the same content as Barack Obama's now-famous phone call to Rep. Steve Israel.

OH-Sen: If a candidate falls in the woods with no one around, does he make a sound? State Rep. Tyrone Yates has been exploring the Senate race for several months, and apparently found nothing that would help him overcome Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and SoS Jennifer Brunner, as he bowed out of the race.

NJ-Gov: Rasmussen has the first post-primary poll of the New Jersey governor's race. Chris Christie may have gotten a bit of a brief unity bounce in the wake of his primary victory, as he's up to a 51-38 edge over Jon Corzine now, as opposed to 47-38 last month. There's one spot of 'good' news, as it were, for Corzine: his approval rating is back up to 42%.

AZ-08: Construction company executive and ex-Marine Jesse Kelly seems to be the establishment GOP's choice to go against Rep. Gabrielle Giffords in 2010. He announced endorsements from three House members: Trent Franks, Duncan Hunter, and Frank Wolf. (Not quite clear how endorsements from Hunter and Wolf help him in Arizona, though.)

KS-01: State Senator Jim Barnett got into the race for the seat being vacated by Rep. Jerry Moran, who's running for Senate. Barnett may quickly become front-runner, based on his name recognition from being the 2006 GOP gubernatorial candidate (where he lost the state as a whole to Kathleen Sebelius, but won the dark-red 1st). He's up against a more conservative state Senator Tim Huelskamp, and Sam Brownback's former chief of staff, Rob Wasinger. The primary is the whole shooting match in this R+23 district.

KY-01: After the purchase of "whitfieldforsenate.com" got people's attention yesterday, Rep. Ed Whitfield had to tamp that down, confirming that he's running for re-election in his R+15 House seat.

MN-06: Even if this goes nowhere, it's great to have a GOPer doing our framing for us... attorney Chris Johnston is publicly mulling a primary challenge to (his words, on his website) "'anti-American' hurling, malaprop-spouting, 'they took me out of context'" Rep. Michele Bachmann. He confirms that he and Bachmann share "strong conservative beliefs;" he just thinks the 6th would prefer someone "who thinks before they speak."

NH-02: Attorney Ann McLane Kuster is launching an exploratory committee to run for the open seat left behind by Rep. Paul Hodes. St. Rep. John DeJoie is already in the primary field, and they may soon be joined by Katrina Swett.

NY-03: Dems are scoping out potential candidates in Long Island's NY-03 (which fell to R+4 in the wake of 2008), thinking that even if Rep. Peter King doesn't vacate to run for Senate he's still vulnerable. The biggest fish would be Nassau Co. Exec Tom Suozzi, who seems to have bigger fish to fry (reportedly AG if Andrew Cuomo vacates). The next-biggest fish would Nassau Co. DA Kathleen Rice. Smaller fish listed include Isobel Coleman of the Council of Foreign Relations, and minor league baseball team owner Frank Boulton.

NH-Legislature: It took a rewrite of a couple sentences that Gov. John Lynch didn't like, but after a few weeks of back-and-forth New Hampshire finally enacted gay marriage. Both chambers passed the amended bill yesterday (clearing the House 198-176) and Lynch signed it into law on the same day.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 6/4
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This further bolsters my theory
that Wayne Newton has, over the last few years, worked secretly to bring down the GOP from the inside.

Danke Schoen, indeed, Mr. Newton.

Check out the Guru's blog at http://www.senateguru.com/


NJ-GOV
Predictions?

Anyone want to take guesses on the final numbers? And how many third parties are on the ballot? I got Corzine winning over Cristie 47-46 with 7% going to other candidates.

NY-03 - I may be from Galveston County, TX, but I hate fish.


You may be dead on
Corzine will close the gap this Summer with Christie.  I believe whomever wins this race will not win by more than 5%.  I don't care what the polls say because my gut feeling is that come November it will be a late night for both candidates.

[ Parent ]
Yeah I still think in the end Corzine will pull it off
          Although I do think that alot of this does still hinge on the economy. For now I'm going with Corzine 49% to Christie 48%.

[ Parent ]
NJ
I think this is Christie's highwater mark.  If Corzine runs a decent campaign, and keep Christie on the defensive, he can win.  But I'm not making any predictions at this point.

[ Parent ]
Suozzi
Is Suozzi really qualified to run for Attorney General?  Being Nassau County Executive doesn't seem like it is relevant to what the Attorney General does.  I think someone with a background in the state legislature with experience on the judiciary committee, or as a county District Attorney, or as an assistant Attorney General, or as a US Attorney would be much better equipped to run for AG.  Suozzi's best moves for a promotion would be to run for Governor or Lieutenant Governor (not too familiar with NY politics but I think the nominee for governor would need to appoint him for him to run for LG).  Running for Congress might seem to be a lateral move for him because it is not an executive position.  He was in this type of position as mayor and is currently an executive in his County Executive role.  A while back, I raised the same critique when discussing Sam Olens, Chairman of the Cobb County Board of Commissioners, running for Georgia Attorney General.  

Gelber looks to be in AG's race
http://www.dangelber.com/blog/...

Although the "strongest ticket" stuff may mean he's open to LG. I sure wouldn't mind that.


GA-Gov: Vernon Jones thinking about it
http://blogs.ajc.com/political...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA *GASP*
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

[ Parent ]
Duncan Hunter was the "sane" go-to guy on immigration
if I recall correctly.  So that would be the reason his endorsement would matter in AZ-08.  Not sure about Wolf.

Hunter and Wolfe Endorsements
There's a joke in there somewhere.

[ Parent ]
Hunter? Sane?
Well, if you're staring at Tom Tancredo, Randy Graf, Sensenbrenner (why does he care, exactly, as a non-border guy?), and that Minuteman idiot Simcox who might run for Congress, I guess Hunter appears sane.

[ Parent ]
Hunter? Sane?
Well, if you're staring at Tom Tancredo, Randy Graf, Sensenbrenner (why does he care, exactly, as a non-border guy?), and that Minuteman idiot Simcox who might run for Congress, I guess Hunter appears sane.

[ Parent ]
Which Duncan Hunter?
The current Duncan Hunter, aka "Duncan D. Hunter", is a few months into his first term in Congress.  Daddy, aka "Duncan Hunter" was a long term Congressman who ran for President with little evident effect.

Duncan D. Hunter is hardly the go to guy on anything.

Frank Wolfe is in his 70s.

Trent Franks is listed as "Hispanic" but it must be on mom's side.  Trent Franks is one of two Republicans in Congress who is not a Florida Cuban.  The other, Devin Nunes, is Portuguese.  Yes, I'm laughing.


[ Parent ]
The Duncan Hunter being referred is the ex-congressman. Duncan L. Hunter
[ Parent ]
Go Chris Johnston!
I'd love to see Bachmann's response when "un-American" Republicans start calling her BS out.  Not to mention a  shootout in the 6th, coupled with a potential vacancy in the 2nd and a wide-open Governor's race could turn Minnesota into the Wild West of 2010.  I'd be all for that - the DFL would be in a great position to put in some truly progressive folks.

PW is reporting that Maloney is out
Ah well. There goes the DavidNYC for Congress campaign.

I think you got her mixed up
with McCarthy, son.

[ Parent ]
Whoops
So I did. My brain isn't working too well today it seems.

[ Parent ]
Outrageous
As DGA chair, he shouldn't be doing this sort of shit -- especially since there's a good chance that McAuliffe won't be the nominee!

[ Parent ]
The comments there are priceless
Pesonally, I'd rather have the endorsement from the paper.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, and
As someone said to me via IM, there couldn't be a candidate who's more antithetical to the populist, DC-despising image that Schweitzer has carefully cultivated for himself over the years than Terry McAuliffe.

The mind. It boggles!


[ Parent ]
The only thing I can think of is that there is some worry
That Terry and only Terry can raise the funds needed to defeat McConnell. I'm skeptical. If Deeds were to win he will be able to raise enough to win I'm sure.

[ Parent ]
And all the more amazing
Considering the new Kos poll. Explains why Terry needs Schweitzer but not why Schweitzer would does this when the momentum is all with Creigh.

[ Parent ]
Did McAuliffe call in some past favor
owed to him by Schweitzer, perhaps?
But still, definitely not cool that Schweitzer is doing this

[ Parent ]
Agreed
And I cant say I know much about Deeds but he seems more like the kind of guy Schweitzer would support.

[ Parent ]
WAT?
Not appropriate when Cornyn endorsed Crist on the Republicans, not appropriate with Schweitzer endorsing T-Mac for the Democrats.

I got no problem with party leaders recruiting candidates for races (they should) but I got issues when they wade into primaries unless they have very, VERY good reasons to do otherwise. We're talking a like a Republicans running as a Democrat intentionally working to undermine the party (see TX-State Senate 17 Special Election from earlier this year for an example of this).


[ Parent ]
My guess
would be that Schweitzer, as head of the DGA, figures that McAuliffe can fund his own way but Deeds will require the DGA to break open the piggyback to get over the finish line. (But I don't think that rises to the level of "good reason.")

[ Parent ]
As just posted at pollster
I think Terry is done. All the undecideds (and there were lots of them) are breaking to Deeds and, to a lesser extent to Moran.

[ Parent ]
Insane
I'm pretty sure everyone would agree that Schweitzer won't gain McAuliffe any votes or if he does they won't be the deciding factor. So it's not like if he wins it will help Schweitzer or the DGA in any way. If he loses (which is probably a 50-50 bet right now) it will hurt efforts to unify and breed resentment among the Deeds or Moran campaign against the DGA which is not a good thing. Crisitunity's explanation is the only one I can think of but he can't be delusional enough to think that his endorsement will achually sway votes in Virgina.

It doesn't nothing but hurt unity and Schweitzer.

Also we now have Deeds leading in three of the last four polls and according to the latest R2000/Dkos poll most of the undecideds are not in NoVA. McAuliffe has the strongest turnout team so I'm not writing him off but Deeds is doing very well. If he snags some more newspaper endorsements this Sunday and turnout isn't big then he could win this thing. At this point I'm rooting for that result.


[ Parent ]
Exciting stuff
Can't wait for liveblogging on Tuesday night now. Break out the county charts!

[ Parent ]
Ditto
There havent been very many interesting three way races, in fact I cant remember following a single liveblog where it wasn't one vs ones.  I think it'll be an interesting night.

[ Parent ]
Deeds vs. McDonnell = repeat of 2005
That race was pretty much a tossup, for Attorney General - McDonnell by a hair. I imagine Governor will be equally close between them, and if Deeds can bring together the usual NoVA base and any appeal he might have in Southern Virginia I think he has a good shot at this.

I think it's a toss up
with Deeds, but we start off in a hole with the other two.

I'm just hoping he can pull it off.  McDonnell by a hair would be a crappy out come.


[ Parent ]
NY-03
Can we please not screw this up? This will be the only chance we get for a long time to pick up this district. This district is winnable but if we run the owner of a minor league baseball team then we will lose. Better possible candidates can include the mayors of the larger cities in the district and congressional aides for Schumer and Gillibrand who happen to be from Long Island.

Or one of the only shots ever again
If a Republican wins it I am guessing it will be the one that is eliminated, so long as a Republican is the congressman come redistricting time.  

[ Parent ]
What's wrong with a baseball team owner?
In general I'd take that over a Congressional staffer any day.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

[ Parent ]
Baseball team owner is a Dem?
That's pretty strange (I've seen the report so I don't doubt it) but that's an occupation where I would suspect you would lean R pretty strong. Now, a really wealthy owner who owned a Major League/ NFL/ NBA I could leaning one way or the other politically because really wealthy/successful people seem to be more eccentric than just semi-wealthy people (think Howard Hughes versus a small town doctor).

I wonder if Nate Silver would do a regression model on this...

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog


[ Parent ]
NJ-Gov
You know, it's kind of too bad we can't really do anything to help him win, I obviously wont be donating anything to him since he can self-fund bazillions.

the problem is that
Simmons isn't a moderate and doesn't even hardly know how to act like one. He was actually way to the right of Nancy Johnson and Chris Shays depstie representing a district supposedly more Democratic than either of them. He was nearly a mainstream conservative and gave 5000 dollars in 2006 to Tom DeLay's legal defense fund. I'm only incredulous he only barely lost. I mean what's wrong with his district? I could never figure out how a guy like him kept winning against credibile Democratic opponents in a Democratic district.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Apparently
He was a strong fighter for the important military base in his district. Although maybe it has since closed, i cant recall.

[ Parent ]

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