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SSP Daily Digest: 7/28

by: Crisitunity

Tue Jul 28, 2009 at 3:05 PM EDT


FL-Sen: Charlie Crist got an endorsement today from one of the guys who was considered to be one of the likeliest GOP nominees up until the point when, well, Crist got into the race: Rep. Vern Buchanan. (If you're keeping score among Florida's Reps., the Diaz-Balarts and Cornelius McGillicudy IV have endorsed Crist, while Jeff Miller has endorsed Rubio.)

IL-Sen: Rep. Mark Kirk has drawn another seemingly-minor challenger in the GOP primary. John Arrington, an African-American former city councilor from Chicago's southern suburb of Harvey, will run. He also sought the party's nomination for the same seat in 2004 after GOP primary winner Jack Ryan dropped out, although the state party gave the nomination to the much more fun Alan Keyes.

NC-Sen, NC-07: As most people expected, Rep. Mike McIntyre announced that he will run for re-election instead of for the Senate seat held by Richard Burr. Which is just as well, as McIntyre is pretty conservative and also needed to hold down his reddish district. SoS Elaine Marshall is probably the biggest name left who's sounding interested in the Senate race.

OH-Sen: George Voinovich had one of his occasional moments of independence the other day, telling the Columbus Dispatch that too many conservative southerners (specifically citing Jim DeMint and Tom Coburn) are dragging down the party's brand nationwide. "They get on TV and go 'errrr, errrrr,'" he said. "People hear them and say, 'These people, they're southerners. The party's being taken over by southerners. What they hell they got to do with Ohio?'" (I'm not quite sure what "errrr, errrr" means -- maybe it's supposed to be some sort of Frankenstein's Monster noise -- but otherwise it's spot on.)

CT-Gov: State senator Gary LeBeau, from East Hartford, seems to be the first Democrat to actually announce his candidacy for Governor. He's been a Senator since 1996. Potential candidates he may face in the primary include Stamford mayor Daniel Malloy, SoS Susan Bysiewicz (both of whom have outpaced incumbent Governor Jodi Rell at fundraising so far), former state House speaker James Amman, and former Senate candidate Ned Lamont.

MI-Gov: Although Lt. Gov. John Cherry seems on track to the Dem nomination, he got another primary opponent, former state Rep. John Freeman. Freeman's hook is strong ties with organized labor, but Cherry is also friendly with labor. State Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith is also in the race, and former MSU football coach George Perles is all but in.

MN-Gov: Will he or won't he? After the news broke last night that Norm Coleman wasn't planning to run for Governor, that has been updated today to reflect that he won't really decide until some point in spring 2010... which seems intended to give his personal brand some time to, uh, recover his interminable contesting of the Senate election, but still sounds very odd, as the party's endorsing convention is in late April, giving him almost no time to ramp up.

SD-Gov: If there's one job that's even more thankless than being state Senate minority leader in South Dakota, it's being the Democrats' gubernatorial candidate in South Dakota. Kudos to Scott Heideprem for doing both. Likely GOP contenders include Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard and state Senate majority leader Dave Knudsen.

TX-Gov: Kay Bailey Hutchison is already shaking up her campaign staff, confronted with polls that show her faltering in the gubernatorial primary as incumbent Rick Perry consolidates the hard-core base with his ranting against the feds. Campaign manager Rick Wiley is out, replaced by Terry Sullivan.

CA-26: Rep. David Dreier has reimbursed himself an unusually high $200,000 out of his congressional campaign funds this decade, without the proper level of itemization required by the FEC, and watchdog groups are starting to wonder why. He says these are mostly mundane food expenses and that he'll provide additional documentation if the FEC makes him. Hopefully he's not making the same mistake a lot of small-time crooks make: when you launder money, you don't put it in the Dreier afterwards.

FL-16: With state Sen. Dave Aronberg running for AG, our next best bet is probably St. Lucie Co. Commissioner Chris Craft, and he's "leaning" toward jumping into the race against freshman GOPer Tom Rooney in the next few weeks.

LA-02: The first Democrat to announce a run against improbable GOP Rep. Joseph Cao is state Rep. Juan LaFonta. LaFonta had been rumored to be thinking about avoiding the Dem primary and running as an Independent, but won't. State Rep. Cedric Richmond, who lost last year's primary, and State Sen. Cheryl Grey Evans also sound likely to get in.

MN-06: State Sen. Tarryl Clark made her run official, filing the paperwork for her candidacy ysterday. She'll face off against 06 candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg and former IP member Maureen Reed in the primary.

MS-01: This has been expected since state Sen. Merle Flowers said he wouldn't run, but state Sen. Alan Nunnelee made it official yesterday, filing to run against Rep. Travis Childers. Nunnelee's opening salvo against Blue Dog Childers was that he votes with Nancy Pelosi "100 percent." Which is true, if by 100%, you actually mean 61%.

TX-32: Here's a profile of Grier Raggio, the locally-prominent attorney who's running for the Democrats in the 32nd. The district still is Republican-leaning, but demographics are poised to move it quickly in our direction.

FL-St. House: Term limits look like they'll cut a sizable swath through the GOP delegation in Florida's state House, with Republicans facing 25 open seats in 2010 -- many of which are narrowly GOP-leaning and in Dem-trending central Florida -- compared with only three for Democrats. Dems are starting out in a very deep hole in the state House, so an outright takeover isn't likely, but it may bring them closer to balance.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/28
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errrrr, errrrr
I imagine him making the sound of a bear raised up on its hind legs, a sort of primal growl.  His comment is much more provocative (and accurate) if he's calling them primitive tribalists, rather than just describing their accent.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

What's the deal with the Louisiana Democratic Party?
Sounds like they're trying their hardest to blow LA-02 again. That race should be a sure thing.  

You're basing that on...? eom


[ Parent ]
I'm basing that on the fact that they blew LA-2 and LA-6 last year
And this silly idea of running as an independent to avoid a tough Democratic primary. That would only help Cao by splitting the vote.  

[ Parent ]
But that didn't happen.
The candidate thinking of running as an independent is running as a Democrat.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
You can ask for a refund at the door. (eom)


[ Parent ]
I'll be here all week


[ Parent ]
LOL

I think I can handle a few more.  :-)

[ Parent ]
I thought that
the biggest news today is Charles Grassley finally earned his stripes.

He voted against Sotomayor in the committee.


NYC-Mayor
Via CNN, a Quinnipiac poll:

New York City Comptroller William Thompson, the top Democratic challenger, trails Mayor Michael Bloomberg 47 - 37 percent among New York City voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This 10-point gap is less than half of Mayor Bloomberg's 54 - 32 percent lead June 16.

Since I haven't heard anything about Thompson's campaign, I'm assuming this is what made the difference:

In the June 16 survey, New York City voters were asked to choose between "Thompson the Democrat" and "Bloomberg the independent." In today's survey, Bloomberg is identified as "running as both a Republican and an independent."

Any New Yorkers have thoughts?


Yeah
My thought is that it doesn't amount to a hill of beans. Bloomberg may win by 10 points or by 15, but he'll win.

By the way, though it's a minor factor, the fact that Sharpton announced his endorsement of Thompson is at least as likely to hurt as help. Many New Yorkers, regardless of party, consider Sharpton a charlatan and a blowhard and haven't forgotten his central role in the Tawana Brawley hoax, for which he's never apologized or even admitted any mistake.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
At first
I was a little taken aback by Voinovich's southerners comment, but then i read all of what he said in your post and realized it wasnt a slight against us southerners. Which is good considering I am one ;).

Voinovich is dead on with his comments
I'm glad Voinovich stated the obvious in a indirect way:  the GOP has become a regional party.  I wish like hell that Sessions and DeMint (among others) were in a different region because they have a way of unfairly stereotyping Southerners as a whole.  There's two parts of the South:  areas of growth that bring new people with new ideas and more open-mindedness, and other areas where businesses have left and where the remaining people have a tendency of being bitter.  I've lived in NC my whole life, and I've lived in both areas.  My old hometown is becoming more of a ghost town, and the people in this county voted 67% for McCain.  Where I have lived the last 16 years is an area of growth that supported Obama with 68% of the vote.

It's kind of interesting on how the South's politics, along with the border states, have changed in the last 15 years.  Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia have taken a turn to the right.  Other states, such as Virginia and North Carolina, have made a turn to moderation.  Florida has also changed, becoming a little more centrist-based than 20+ years ago.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
Agreed
On a state-level, they're looking at being left with just Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Tennessee, West Virginia, at least in the South.  Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida are no longer reliable for them.  Georgia won't be too far behind.  And behind Georgia will be South Carolina and Texas.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
South Carolina
Don't you think that'll take a while?  Let's see how DeMint does in his reelection campaign.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Yes
But with two close House races and a presidential race in the single digits, it looks promising.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
SC surprises me
From afar, the only political force I can see is hardcore conservative Republicans.  DeMint is by the book conservative, Graham is for the most part but has his moments where he wants to be moderate, the delegation is 4/2 and will be 5/1 at some point, etc.

And then in 2008, damn, Ketner made it RIDICULOUS close and Obama came within 9%.  And imagine if he dominates in 2012, he probably couldnt win SC but he'd get it close.

The South is by far the most interesting place in the entire country when it comes to politics.  It is all conservative and totally not my cup of tea when it comes to the issues, but I'm always surprised to see how they voted and what's going on politically there.  No other part of the country has ever voted so consistently and by such large margins for a single party than the South.  I love wikipedia; I was going through vote margins for Presidential races all the way back in the 20's, 30's, 40's, etc.  GA, SC, AL, MS, AR, those states went 90-10 with GA being 98-2 just about every year, until the Civil Rights movement.  So fascinating.


[ Parent ]
More like embarassing.


[ Parent ]
The states that you mentioned..
is more the "Deep South" as opposed to the South.  Not trying to belabor a point, but states like NC, FL, TN and VA supported LBJ in 1964, while others (AL, MS, SC, GA, LA)went for Goldwater because of Civil Rights.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Well...

They'll probably have Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, and Alaska for a good while longer as well.



[ Parent ]
not even Arkansas
Arkansas is still favorable to Democrats.

South Carolina, no. Democrats top out statewide at 45%, the white vote is too conservative.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus


[ Parent ]
Will Obama be able to win AR next time?
If he actually campaigns there?  If AR comes, he better be working at WV.  Those are kind of a set.

[ Parent ]
I concur (eom)


40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Reasonable Republicans
Sen. Voinovich is one of the last remaining reasonable Republicans who aren't firebreathing conservatives just for the sake of being conservative. Former Sens. Warner and Hagel and current Sens. McCain and Lugar also come to mind.  

[ Parent ]
Well
Soon they will be all gone since the birthers, wingnuts, and teabaggers will demands every Republican senator be of the Jim DeMint type.

I think this quote from a Republican sums it up best

"This Republican is voting for Charlie. There is a reason only one Jim Demint type exists in the Senate. If Rubio wins, he and Demint can have their own discussions in an otherwise empty room."

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
Very true
I think any party shrinking too close to its ideological core is a bad thing, and that's not just because I'm a centrist. It's just as important to have more conservative and moderate Democrats as it is to have liberal and moderate Republicans. I'm a big subscriber to the idea of having a "big tent" on both sides. And I also oppose voting for someone just because they have a "D" or "R" next to their name.

I would also add Sens. Hatch, Snowe, Collins, and Graham to the list of respectable, reasonable, and intelligent Republican Senators. The detestable type I've been talking about is DeMint, like you said, as well as Sens. Sessions, Inhofe, Coburn, Thune, Ensign, Vitter, Cochran, Grassley, etc.


[ Parent ]
I've heard that Mike Enzi isn't too bad either.
Come to think of it, Wyoming might turn out later to be a Republican analog of Appalachia--identifies strongly with one party, but doesn't quite hold beliefs that strong.  I've heard that Mountain West Republicans tend to be more of the libertarian kind (with the exception of Republican Mormons).

Also, is Grassley considered a semi-centrist?  I know he isn't a crazy-hardcore conservative, but is he semi-centrist or just simply conservative?

And I haven't heard much about Thune.  Is he one of the "quieter" conservatives or have I just not listened enough?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
The difference
I guess the main difference here is between reasonable, thoughtful conservatives and Bible-thumping obstructionist conservatives. I would put Grassley and Thune in the latter category for sure, especially Thune. I don't really know anything about Mike Enzi...

[ Parent ]
Wait.
Is Grassley is a thoughtful conservative or an obstructionist conservative?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Obstructionist
At least in my opinion.

[ Parent ]
Voinovich
Has never been overly conservative.  I mean heck, his first major job was as mayor of Cleveland, where conservatives are basically an endangered species.  The city is just about as liberal as Chicago, Detroit, and Boston, although maybe not as crazy as LA or NY.  He then did a fabulous job as governor, instituting many key reforms for Ohio's government (although he missed the boat on gambling).  He was particularly progressive on environmental issues, as Ohio's lakes, rivers, and streams became cleaner than they had in decades.  

Being a democrat from Ohio, I've never had a problem with Senator Voinovich.  He is more conservative than I'd like on most issues, but at least he's open minded at least 90% of the time, which is way more than you can say for most of the other Repubs (and probably most non-Blue Dog Dems too).  Somebody mentioned McCain, and Voinovich does show a lot of similarities with McCain, they both look out for the best possible solution, not necessarily the one that will drive home their party's agenda the best.  It's a shame he's retiring.  The only candidate I see on the board in the OH-Sen race that could be as strong a senator as him is Brunner.  I don't like Fisher, and I sure as hell don't like Portman.  Ganley I don't know much about.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


[ Parent ]
"Crazy" New York?
New York elected Giuliani to two terms and is pretty set to elect Bloomberg to his second term soon. But we're "crazy" liberals? Meanwhile, you also mentioned LA, home of former mayor Riordan. Care to reconsider?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Yeah on L.A.
Care to explain how the city that elected moderate Republican Richard Riordan as mayor is "crazy"?

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
And wasnt Hahn a DLC Clinton-supported Dem?
Or maybe just Clinton-supported. But I thought he was moderate by CA Democrat standards.

[ Parent ]
Murkowski and Hatch
I'd also throw Murkowski in the group of non-firebreathing conservatives.  Unlike the ones you mention, however, she, like most Alaskan politicians, seems to be all about what's in it for Alaska, rather than reasonable and statesmanlike.

I might take fire for this, but I'd also include Hatch in the better Republican group.  He always seems genuinely civil and moderate in his rhetoric, and can sometimes surprise you with a vote, especially given how conservative his electorate is.  If Hatch weren't being primaried from the right, I'd bet he would vote to confirm Sotomayor.


[ Parent ]
Bennett's the one being primaried this year.
Hatch's vote geniunely surprises me. Most of the "why's" are easy to figure out (Grassley's becoming chairman, Kyl and Coburn are fucking crazy, Graham has always been sympathetic to Latinos, etc.) Maybe he would have voted yea if had no other GOP on the committee was going to support her.

I'm very interested in seeing what Murkowski and McCain do. Both are up for re-election fwiw though I doubt either will get formidable primary challengers.  


[ Parent ]
I think McCain is a no
Unless he uses his floor speech to bash Obama by voting yes for the same reasons as Graham. Beyond those already announced I can't see any potential Repub votes other than Voinovich and Gregg.

[ Parent ]
Right on many points
Tarheeman's point about there being two parts of the South can be applied to other regions too. I come from the strongly Democratic (but not especially liberal) Mahoning Valley in OH. The area has been dying for more than 30 years now, and there is A LOT of bitterness. It also doesn't help that many residents over a certain age hold very unenlightened views on race (one of them being my father). Conversely, Franklin County (Columbus) has been growing pretty solidly, and I've found that it is way more open-minded than almost every other part of the state (with the possible exception of the Cleveland-Akron area).

As for the "err err", I think Voinivich was really going for "rawr rawr". The former makes him sound like the buzzer used when someone give a wrong answer.


[ Parent ]
I always thought
A big chunk of Cleveland and Akron's demographics were also working class white. I guess they are more open than the ones in the Mahoning Valley? Or maybe their numbers are just completely drowned out by more open people?

[ Parent ]
McIntyre made a good call
At least to this North Carolinian, I didn't like Mike's chances in the general election.  McIntyre is fairly conservative:  he might have been a Republican-light senator, and he doesn't have the charisma to pull out a statewide election.

North Carolina needs a candidate that's a good contrast to Richard Burr.  McIntyre wasn't the one...

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


McIntyre
McIntyre is Robert Morgan redux.

[ Parent ]
In defense of Robert Morgan...
His ideology was pretty much in line with Sam Ervin.  After Jesse Helms won in 1972, Morgan had to be fairly conservative to get elected.  Morgan's problem was that he didn't have the charisma of Sam Ervin.

McIntyre is a different story.  Democrats in NC today can be progressive and elected as long as they have some charisma.  McIntyre is not progressive, he lacks charisma, and he's not electable in a statewide race.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
A puddle of water has more charisma than Burr
McIntyre is like Cher in comparison...

[ Parent ]
Elaine Marshall
Marshall will probably run and crush Burr hopefully. He is a do-nothing senator.

[ Parent ]
I came to report that LeBeau is getting into CT-Gov
but it seems you already have it.

I heard it on the local news tonight.  Yeah, he's my state senator.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01



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