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FL-10: Bill Young Will Run Again

by: James L.

Sat Feb 20, 2010 at 11:49 PM EST


It looks like predictions that Young would bail won't pan out this cycle. From the St. Petersburg Times:

But before he stood up to speak, U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas, let the news slip: "I will say to you, this is not Bill Young's swan song tonight."

That brought a round of applause. And shortly after that, Young shed a little more light on his decision to run for a 21st term in Congress by referring to his outspoken wife Beverly, an activist for supporting U.S. troops.

"Beverly told me that if I didn't run, she was going to," Young said. So he thought, "maybe I better stay on the job."

Young told the crowd of about 500 that he wasn't trying to be coy about his decision whether to run for re-election. He simply doesn't believe in long campaigns or even in raising campaign money during non-election years.

But now that it's 2010, he said, he's excited about running again.

Democrats had badly hoped that Young would decide to hang up his spurs in order to give state Sen. Charlie Justice a clean shot at the seat, but they're probably better off with Young deferring his decision to retire to another cycle. Justice is no great shakes, having proven a major fundraising bust. Barring a major injection of hustle, Justice would have a tough time winning this tossup district with the current Republican headwind in place. Moreover, who knows what this district will look like post-redistricting. Democrats will probably be better off dealing with Young's retirement in a more neutral year.

RaceTracker Wiki: FL-10

James L. :: FL-10: Bill Young Will Run Again
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alert Rasmussen.
Ras needs to ASAP get a FL-10 poll showing Young leading any and all potential Dem challengers by at least 40 points.

Oh well, I was really expecting this would be an open seat.
But nice job of spinning away the disappointment, James L.


I can't speak for James
but my honest reaction is the same. This is a marginal district that would be a tough slog this year.  

[ Parent ]
Andrew Gellman at 538 had a good point about strategic retirements
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

Basically if Congressmen/ Senators put their party before themselves they'd retire in years good for their party.  Instead, they usually retire in years where their party will have a tougher time holding their seats.  Rings true here, though redistricting complicates things a bit.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
I agree
Whooley and Cramer where helpful in that way. I wish some like Gordon, Tanner, Berry, Snyder, and many others would have done the same. Honestly I don't find the news of Young's decision to be a bad one. It would be hard to get this seat even if it was open, but we may have a good shot in 2012. At the end of the day we were probably not going to win the seat in this cycle. I am not trying to be a pessimist; I am just trying to be realistic.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I've read Florida will be ripe for Dems in 2012 because...
...redistricting is virtually certain to help Democrats.  The problem Republicans face there is that they gerrymandered to the max after 2000, and the demographic trends since have gone against them enough that it will be tough for them to keep the same partisan advantage in U.S. House districts.  That's one reason Mario Diaz-Balart is switching to Lincoln's district, because Mario's district already has trended less red and will be much more purple with new lines.  And that might happen in other districts, too.  With 2012 a Presidential year, assuming Obama has job approval in the 50s (which I think is likely because the recession really will be over, we'll be out of Iraq, and we'll be dialing down in Afghanistan), his campaign machine will maximize Democratic turnout in every swing state including Florida.  And we're likely to pick up a seat or more as a result of all that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Twelve months ago
everything was goodness and light.  Now people seem to not get that 8 months from now is a political eternity.  

What we need to have in place is solid candidates in places we can win if times favor us.  Assuming they won't favor us in eight months is to ignore the past eight months.

At ther very least, this cycle won't shape up until the August non-surprise of the partial Iraq "withdrawal".


[ Parent ]
I think that Justice has proved
that he's incapable of building a strong enough campaign to beat Young, even in a favorable year.

[ Parent ]
If I was spinning
I'd still somehow find a way to hype Charlie Justice! As it is right now, the dude may as well run for re-election.

[ Parent ]
He'd be likely to lose that too.
Republicans have a ringer recruit in former State Senate Majority Leader Jack Latvala, who was term limited, then sat out for awhile, and now is back for more.  The thought of a race against Latvala may have been part of Justice's calculus in gambling on the U.S. House seat.

Also, Dems have a committed candidate, albeit an underdog, in Pinellas County School Board member Nina Hayden.  Justice has already endorsed her.  I can't imagine Charlie would "Gerlach" her by crawling back into the race.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
James more-or-less said
"This situation sucks so hard, we should just give up!" If James were a professional spin doctor, he'd have just gotten himself fired for that one.

This is basically the equivalent of the Mets' team spokesman saying, "Yeah, our team really blows, and fans should consider getting refunds for any remaining tickets they have."


[ Parent ]
Justice's fundraising?
What's the explanation for this? As State Senate Minority leader, you'd have thought he'd have the right connections, and as a strong challenger, he should be generating excitement.

Just a theory here. Is it possible that Bill Young's fundraising had a knock-on effect? He was speculated to retire because his fundraising was slow, now he's explained that he is running, but simply doesn't like long campaigns and non-election year fundraising. Maybe the belief that Bill Young was either retiring or would be underfunded if he ran led to complacency among Democratic donors, and maybe Young's announcement might kick Democrats into a gear. A Coakley situation, essentially, except there's eight months to correct it here. Like I said, it's just a theory, but its possible.


Proper fundraising
May well have made him retire. Epic fail.

[ Parent ]
Maybe
proper fundraising isnt possible until he retires.  Thats why I think Justice blew it fundraising wise, who wants to contribute to him when Young is still in the race and its obvious Young would still win.

[ Parent ]
Maybe
proper fundraising isnt possible until he retires.  Thats why I think Justice blew it fundraising wise, who wants to contribute to him when Young is still in the race and its obvious Young would still win.

[ Parent ]
Not true at all, money is always there to be had......
There's nothing special about Young that scares off donors to a Democratic opponent.  Young has actually had a few close races, he's in a swing district that voted for Kerry and Obama, and he's a mediocre fundraiser.

Justice's fundraising woes are a reflection entirely on him.  And having helped Congressional candidates myself informally in the past, I'll bet you it's simply that he hates it and refuses to do it.  I worked with a Democrat candidate in Tennessee in 1994 in the seat won that year by Zach Wamp, my favored candidate a great guy with a great candidate profile, but my guy had to be babysat to sit there and make calls.  He just hated it and wouldn't do it unless someone was watching over his shoulder.  And he ended up with only about $100K and losing a 4-way primary narrowly, with less than 5% separating the winner from 4th place.

Either Justice refuses to do the fundraising legwork, or, far less likely but not impossible, he just is so despised personally in too many circles to be able to persuade people to ante up.  But I guarantee it ain't people refusing to cross Young.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Wasn't everyone touting how awesome a candidate Justice was like 5 months ago?
Those fundraising numbers are teh suck! =( WTF happened?

Nope
Four months ago, we were talking about how Charlie Justice had pulled in his second-straight lackluster fundraising quarter. And three months before that, we noted he had a weak first fundraising quarter. The only time we touted Justice was in the very first post we did on him, way back in April 2009.

[ Parent ]
Justice is actually going backwards.
His 3rd Q COH = $101K
His 4Q COH = $91K

Van Hollen & the DCCC need to start going Rahmbo on that guy ASAP.


[ Parent ]

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