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AL-Gov: Artur Davis Set to Announce Run

by: DavidNYC

Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 11:06 PM EST


Another unsurprising departure:

U.S. Rep. Artur Davis on Friday will declare his intention to seek the governorship of Alabama, sources close to the congressman confirm.  

The much-anticipated announcement marks the most serious bid ever launched by a black candidate to win the top office in a state that still observes Robert E. Lee and Jefferson Davis' birthdays but that also gave rise to the civil rights movement that ended Jim Crow.

Sources close to the campaign said Davis, 41, will announce his intention to seek the Democratic Party nomination for governor at a midday event Friday in Birmingham, which he represents in Congress, followed by a late-afternoon event in his native Montgomery. He'll kick off his campaign outside the state's Archives, within sight of the first White House of the Confederacy and the Alabama Capitol, where that Confederacy was born 148 years ago Wednesday.

Ag Comm'r and SSP hero Ron Sparks, as well as Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom, are also considering runs for the Dems. Open seat fans, don't fret - Obama won 79% of the vote in AL-07. In fact, this is a good opportunity to replace Davis with someone more progressive, in the mold, perhaps, of Steve Cohen replacing Harold Ford, Jr.

UPDATE: A Roll Call piece (h/t politicalal) lists some potential AL-07 candidates:

Of the several members of the state Legislature who have been mentioned as possible Davis replacements, the most intriguing may be state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr. (D), the son of the former Congressman [whom Davis ousted in a primary in 2002]. ...

Other Democratic state legislators whose names have been floated as possible candidates in the 7th include state Rep. Merika Coleman and state Sen. Rodger Smitherman, who both hail from Jefferson County, where Birmingham is located. State Sen. Bobby Singleton, whose senate district includes parts of Tuscaloosa and rural counties south and west, has also been mentioned. ...

Birmingham attorney Terri Sewell, a longtime associate of Davis' who attended Princeton University at the same time as first lady Michelle Obama, is expected to run in an open-seat race in the 7th.  ...

Another candidate mentioned in Democratic circles is Sheila Smoot, a two-term Jefferson County commissioner who is also known for her work as a former television news anchor.
DavidNYC :: AL-Gov: Artur Davis Set to Announce Run
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AL-Gov: Artur Davis Set to Announce Run | 69 comments
Awesome
There's another decent pickup opportunity lost.  I put Davis's ceiling at 43%.  If we're going to have a black candidate with no chance of winning it coud at least be Charles Barkley.  That way it's fun to watch if nothing else.
I wouldn't call Alabama a "decent" pickup opportunity
None of the Deep South gubernatorial races seem particularly competitive to me.
[ Parent ]
First, just because Davis is running doesn't mean he'll get through the primary
Second, Aggriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks is a pretty popular statewide Democrat.  We'd at least have a shot with him.  
[ Parent ]
If Sparks was worried about a racially polarized Senate primary
I can't see him being interested in anything against Davis who is much stronger than Vivian Figures ever was.
[ Parent ]
It was a cop out excuse.
Like 99% of the "I need to spend more time with my family" retirement speeches/don't want to run for senate speeches.  
[ Parent ]
Davis has no chance
but getting rid of him from the House is worth his candidacy.

Any chance, though, with all the retirements already in the Senate, Richard Shelby might hang it up?  I think Ron Sparks, however, might have a shot at winning an open Senate race in a midterm.

Don't get too excited
This is Alabama we're talking about.  Even a majority black district is likely to elect a moderate Dem.
[ Parent ]
Was Earl Hillard a moderate?
I vaguely remember, but I thought he was pretty liberal and Davis ran to the right of him in the primary because of local support for the Iraq war.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Hillard was liberal on all issues
except gun control.  He also had an ethical cloud over his head, which was the main reason for his defeat, as Davis campaigned that he was a new generation of black politician.  Some say that he lost because Jewish groups funded Davis because Hillard was too pro-Palestinian, but I don't think Hillard lost because of that.
[ Parent ]
Correct
Hillard was a solid liberal.  I'd love to take this opportunity to get another liberal elected, but I fear we're going to just get another Arthur Davis type of moderate.
[ Parent ]
We certainly can do a hell of a lot better than Artur Davis in AL-07
Who, need I remind you, voted in favor of the hideous bankruptcy "reform" act of 2005.
[ Parent ]
Ya, Davis sucks
I'm glad he's going to be gone from the House.  Hopefully we can get an electable Democrat to beat him in the primary, but that's unlikely given how big of a proportion of the Dem primary voters blacks are in Alabama.
[ Parent ]
I think people ought to
Take a step back and focus on the nuances of politics in majority (or heavily) African American districts. A lot of people think, "Well, black Democratic voters tend to be more conservative than white Democratic voters," which has a grain of truth - but then take that bit of data and use it to reach improper conclusions.

But the problem with that broad brush is that, well, it's a broad brush. It may be true that on certain issues, such as abortion or gay rights, black voters tend to be more conservative. But importantly, intensity of preference on those issues in the black community has almost always taken a back seat to economic issues, which is why black and white liberals have often been able to forge successful political coalitions. And on the economic front, majority black districts are not exactly hotbeds of DLC-style thinking.

So yes, I would not expect Davis's successor to be a champion of, say, gay equality. But on economic issues, I have every reason to hope that his replacement will be a lot better. In particular, Davis voted for the odious bankruptcy bill - something wildly out of step with his district. Almost anyone representing a district that voted 80% for Obama should not be supporting a bill like that.

[ Parent ]
Bingo
Just because a district is over 50% black doesn't make it liberal.  Southern black voters are by and large economically liberal/socially conservative.  This is especially the case in the deep south.  Congressmen like Lewis of Gerogia and Cohen of Tennessee are the exception rather than the rule.
[ Parent ]
Sure
But that's why I didn't say "liberal" but instead "progressive." To my mind (for a district like this) that means an economic progressive who will put economic issues first and not run on social issues. Now, in a messy, multi-way primary, it's possible that social issues could come to the fore. But with the economy the way it is, I'd like to think we can get a serious champion of economic justice into that seat.
[ Parent ]
This is a huge problem IMO
over on OpenLeft, or as I like to call it, OpenLeftBehind, Paul Rosenberg has a diary up showing a map of states Gallup polled that showed a Democratic registration advantage and he's using it to argue that we're a liberal nation.

I don't disagree with his opinion that we may no longer be the same conservative nation we were five, ten years ago, but some of those states in blue; Kentucky, Arkansas, West Virginia, Tennessee, Louisiana, OKLAHOMA are not liberal states.

The Democratic Party is more conservative than the Republican Party is liberal, and while that's changing, we need to be aware that it's true and Democrats, as we saw in the 1980's and to an extent in the 2000's, will vote Republican if they feel their party is moving away from them.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
More liberal
Paul's argument is that the nation is more liberal in 2008 than in  1992 despite similar majorities in the House, Presidential election (electoral vote), etc.  think it is the case.  That doesn't mean that the US is liberal, he's using the data to show that the US is not the "conservative" or "center-right" nation that Fox and the Republicans claim.  I'd say center-left is closer than center right at this moment.

One of the important things that has happened since 1992 is that much of the overlap between the two parties is disappearing.  Traditionally, a few northern Republicans were more liberal than at least a few southern Democrats.  Some of the southern Dems from that school retired, some switched parties, and at least half of the moderate Republicans are gone from the scene.


[ Parent ]
Party overlap
To me, it's a good thing that is disappearing.  Party should mean something.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
to borrow an old wingnut phrase, voters should have a choice, not an echo.
[ Parent ]
Still
A bit of moderation keeps people honest. Hence why Republicans are in such a mess. Dems have always had the bigger tent being the party that actually looks like America and I for one hope it stays that way.
[ Parent ]
Sure
and that's what red state Democrats and blue state Republicans are for.  
[ Parent ]
And yet we are the more fractious party
And the party that has the hardest time creating, selling, and maintaining a message.  I'll take coherence and cohesion even if it means a few "moderates" like Bobby Bright, Joe Lieberman, and Jim Marshall feel left out.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Depending on what the message is
they aren't the only ones who would feel left out.

Look at some examples;

Marcy Kaptur and Tim Ryan, otherwise very progressive, is very pro-life. Would they be left out? Would their constiuencies? How about Democrats on Long Island who are socially very liberal, very supportive of Democratic economic ideas, but are strongly anti-illegal immigrant...would they be left out?

The problem with our party is no one is really sure of whose message to sell. Do we sell the more socially moderate, pro-labor party of the rust belt? do we sell the more socially liberal but fiscally moderate party of the Northeast? Do we sell the more libertarian pro-gun, pro-environment wing of the party out west?

The problem with the blogsphere right now is that everyone seems to think theirs is the message the party needs to sell...and there are like a million different messages. Who wants single-payer healthcare vs. who doesn't think it'll work. Who's pro-gun control vs. who's anti-gun control. Who's for choice vs, who believes there should be restrictions. Who's for religious influence vs. who's 100% against it. Who's for hawkish foreign policy vs. who's dovish.

The Republicans decided in the early 2000's to shut up and accept the victorious wing of the party's message as their own. That's what destroyed them.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
and I'd say
we have a center left government, so I don't really understand why he's bitching the party leadership isn't listening.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Because he and many others at OpenLeft aren't left of center
They are hard left. The Bush Dog campaign being Exhibit A1.
[ Parent ]
They may be hard left
but the country isn't...it may be very Democratic, but it's not hard left.

If it were, Jim Inhofe would not be a Senator from Oklahoma.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Exactly

[ Parent ]
Oklahoma is not America
That would be a weird non-sequitur even if anybody were seriously claiming that the country is more than moderately centre-left - and nobody really is.
[ Parent ]
That's not hard left
Frankly, most of them (although admittedly not Paul - although that's not to say he's hard left) are fairly mainstream social democrats, even moderate by European standards. Sirota is abrasive, but essentially just an old-style union Democrat, Lux is not particularly radical and Bowers is hardly out on the radical fringe.

And whilst there's a definite faction in the commentariat (myself included) who are much closer to Paul ideologically, there's also a significant faction who are slightly to the right of all the front-pagers with the possible exception of Mike, a fair swathe between the two poles and a couple of Obama-worshipping trolls (as distinguished from those who just still remain enthusiastic about Obama).

You just think we're hard left because Open Left is confrontational towards more moderate Democrats when they act in ways that we disagree with. That's a horrible misuse of the term. We may not be quietists, but that doesn't make us hard left - we do internal dissent on a continual basis, and the revolutionary left very definitely does not.

Finally, the Bush Dog campaign wasn't a particularly radical act. It was just an attempt to form a relatively rigorous definition of what we would define as a 'bad' Democrat. It led to a bit of complaining and a bit of relatively half-hearted support for primaries that were happening anyway. If that's hard left to you, you need to rethink your attitude towards permissible dissent.

[ Parent ]
Hard left was perhaps not the best description
But the hostility over there to moderate, even left of center Dems is palpable. Sometimes politicians vote a certain way because they believe what they are doing is right not because they are scared into voting the way they think their constituency wants them to vote.
[ Parent ]
True, however
if a liberal wins the Democratic primary--and that's possible--he or she will have no trouble being elected in November.  
[ Parent ]
Who our are progressive candidates
in this district?

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
Yeah, good luck with that.

Davis
I don't suspect that Artur Davis is as conservative personally as a voting record shows.  I think this was just a case of him trying to carve out a moderate record for this statewide run.  I could be wrong though.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  
Correct
I'd put him in the same category with Harold Ford and Kendrick Meek.  He probably votes to the right of his district because of statewide ambitions more than anything else.
[ Parent ]
Good point
Ford represented the one liberal district in Tennessee and voted like the statewide Blue Dogs.  In his case, his family's political dynasty and their misadventures may have cost him.

Douglas Wilder got elected statewide but Harvey Gantt didn't.  Harold Ford didn't.  It may be easier to get elected Governor than to the Senate. I'd still say he's the underdog.

[ Parent ]
Open Seat '10 Tally
GOP:
FL-12 (Putnam)
KS-01 (Moran)
KS-04 (Tiahrt)
MI-02 (Hoekstra)
TN-03 (Wamp)

Dems:
AL-07 (Davis)
FL-17 (Meek)

Am I forgetting any?

The Cook Report has a helpful rundown of open and potentially open seats
http://www.cookpolitical.com/c...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Possible 7th District Replacements
What Happens If Davis Runs turned into what happens when Davis Announces.

I don't think Davis
has as little of a chance as some here. He's smart and savy and shouldn't be underestimated. Obama got 40 percent here, he's certainly do better. It's a tough slog, but if everything goes right I think he could win.
Here's your problem:
Obama got 10% of the white vote in Alabama. 10%. Can Davis do better? If so, by how much?

I have my doubts.

[ Parent ]
The thing that works against Davis the most
is that he's only familiar to the parts of the state that would support any Democrat overwhelmingly.  If he represented a more evenly divided district I'd be more optimistic about his chances, regardless of his race.  But he's going to need around 40-45% in all the other congressional districts for AL-07 to put him over the top, and I can't imagine how he accomplishes that against any competent Republican.
[ Parent ]
Davis can do better
Because he's not a Kenya-born Socialist Muslim (at least not yet). But well enough to get the, say 30% of the White vote he'd need to win? I'm not optimistic.
Adding to his problems is the fact he chose to undercut Josh Segall instead of help him out through his role in the DCCC (or at least keep mouth shut), when we clearly could have won. Whatever grassroots there are in AL-03 are probably a little pissed, and this is a part of the state where Davis better do extremely well if he wants to win.
[ Parent ]
Snark?
Because he's not a Kenya-born Socialist Muslim (at least not yet).


Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog
[ Parent ]
Yes
Someone needs to figure out a way to transmit sarcasm across the internet.
The point is that Obama's image was hopelessly tarnished among most White conservatives because of these ridiculous accusations, where as on paper anyway Davis should be a little better at reaching out to them (though the flip side could be that Davis will have similar problems as well, since it's certainly arguable that a lot of the fuss came from people who weren't quite comfortable in saying they just could never vote for a black man, particularly the Muslim "slur").
[ Parent ]
few comments
Hard to say whether Davis will have a shot.  Alabama does tend to vote for dems in statewide races and we have a dem legislature.  I don't think there's any real evidence that Obama only got 10% of the white vote.  Even if he had gotten every single black vote, 10% of the white vote would not make up his total.  Regardless, Obama ran no campaign here so it's not a great indicator.  

When Davis gives a speech about Alabama politics, he is plenty progressive.  The big issue is education funding and Davis would commit himself to that in a way that no other candidate would.  

He did a rally with Segall in Montgomery right around the time they were arguing about the bailout.  

Jewish support was a huge deal between Davis and Hilliard b/c Davis couldn't raise enough money to do a ton of ads.  Hilliard had gone to Libya and made some pro-Palestinian comments and Davis got a ton of support.  But yeah, the major issue was ethics and Davis has been opposed to any sort of pay-to-play arrangement, never doing favors for donors.

On getting a progressive in AL-7, the question is probably who might have state-wide ambitions.  Someone with broader ambitions is going to want to look more conservative.  Also, Birmingham is a banking town, tons of big banks headquartered there.  So that explains Davis on bankruptcy.

Blacks = 26.1% of active voters
Voter registration stats in Alabama indicate that blacks comprised 26.1% of active voters in Alabama as of 12/31/2008.  If Obama got 40% of the vote, he probably got more like 19%  or 20% of the white vote in Alabama. The math would work as follows:

Obama % - black % = 40-26.1=13.9
13.9/73.9=18.8% (that's the total vote-26.1=73.9)

That's a rough number.  I don't know if black turnout exceeded white turnout (probably yes). The offset is that Obama may have gotten 95% of the black vote but he didn't get 100%.  I figure that the two effects cancel each other out.

Turnout for a Presidential election probably exceeded 70%.  Turnout in the last two Governor's elections was a lot lower (58% in 2002 and 50.6% in 2006).  That's the wildcard.  Davis would need 100% of the black vote and 32.3% of the white vote.  The goal should ve 35%.

all good points except
I doubt black vote exceeded white vote as a percentage.  Alabama is one of the few states that voted more for McCain than Bush.  Since there was no Obama campaign, black vote didn't go up by that much.  
[ Parent ]
That's not true, actully.
McCain won about 60% of the vote in Alabama, down from 62% for Bush in 2004. Yes, it's pretty modest, but at least it didn't go the other way.
[ Parent ]
point taken
But usually democratic north alabama was part of the redder Appalachian swing.  

Btw, another point for Davis.  The repubs in this race are super-weak.  Kay Ivey, Bradley Byrne, and Tim James are the contenders.  None of them are remotely strong.  

[ Parent ]
Davis keys to victory
he would have to run Jefferson County and Montgomery County at upwards of 55%. He would need to win Madison County (Huntsville) and at least break even in Mobile (unlikely with a Mobile candidate which is very likely on the ballot). He would also have to close the gap in such places as Tuscaloosa County (which is possible since its part of his district).

Obama did very poorly in some traditionally Democratic counties. Davis is going to need to do 10 points better in some of these places which is possible.

Also the 7th Congressional District race will be over in the primary so you cannot count on increased turnout in the Black Belt like you did in Presidential 2008.

It is difficult for a Birmingham based candidate to win a general regardless of race. Davis would be an underdog in a general, but do not count him out with his increased presence, likability and ability to raise funds

this discussion mirrors the Meek discussion
1) there are people who want a more liberal candidate to represent this democratic district.  they say nasty things about his moderate record.
2) it is assumed that he'll never win statewide in a southern state because he's black and he's too liberal and he represents too liberal district.

really no point in blacks running statewide south of the mason dixon.  i mean they're too conservative for their districts.  they are too liberal for the state (no matter how they vote apparently).

i think this is dissappointing and looks a little like...like...what's that r word?

but obama introduced a template and i don't think it should be ignored.  he was smart, attractive, inspiring and competent and he ran as a talented leader who happened to be black.  meek and davis and deval patrick before him want to run this way.  and it might work.

if any other candidate who had a rock solid base in 1/7th of the state (his district), and around the state (AAs), and is articulate and has an impressive resume and is running for an open seat, we would say that he is an excellent candidate for this seat.  still an underdog because of the republicaness of the state.  but hell, we haven't won the governorship of alabama since 1998.

i mean the old recipe - conservative white democrat - siegelman in AL, hodges in SC, musgrove in MS, can work, but it hasn't worked lately.  i certainly think we should be willing to accept, maybe even be excited about a different recipe in the united states.

I've been precise in my criticism of Meek and Davis
it's not race.  They're just out of step with their states in a big way, Meek not so much (Florida did after all vote for Obama, and should have voted narrowly for Gore).  But Alabama...coming from a district Obama got 70% in, trying to win a state Obama took 40% in...it would be like Steve Cohen trying to get elected statewide in Tennessee.  The Republicans are content to pack Democratic voters into a few ultra-blue districts because they know the representatives they produce will not be viable statewide in much of the South.

Candidates like Folsom and Sparks have already been elected statewide.  It's really unfortunate that time and time again in the South the strongest Democratic candidates are white, when such a high percentage of Democrats are black, but until Southern Republicans indicate that they're willing to consider voting for black Democrats, things aren't going to change unless a truly talented politician comes around.  Davis does not strike me as such a politician.

[ Parent ]
You mention Cohen
But what about Cohen's predecessor, Harold Ford? Ford ultimately lost, but it was only by 3 points. And Davis has a couple of key advantages over Ford: state vs federal race, and he doesn't have the family baggage that Ford had.

I'm not saying Davis will win, he has to be considered a pretty significant underdog. But if Harold Ford can get 48% in a TN Senate race, Davis can win an AL Gov. race.

[ Parent ]
Tennessee isn't Alabama

[ Parent ]
why does it strike you that he is not a talented politician
I don't buy that a housemember from a very liberal or very conservative district can't win statewide, especially if they have been careful to moderate their record.  the negativity that many have expressed here comes from the fact that he is a moderate, NOT A LIBERAL. any democrat is probably to the left of the electorate in AL, but that doesn't mean they can't win in the right cirmcumstances.

folsom, sparks, and davis far out-performed obama in their elections.  but all were in different circumstances than running for Gov statewide.

in the end, it will come down to inspiring people, putting together a crack team, performing in debates, shrewdly playing the issues of the year, raising money, and probably getting a little lucky...you know the drill.

what it needs to change is "a truly talented politician."  i don't know if davis or meek is such a person.  but they might be and i've seen nothing in this thread that addresses that key point including skaje's offhand comment.

are these guys articulate? inspiring? smart?  do they have good people around them?  vivian figures was a waste of time as was cleo fields, but i'd like to think that meek and davis are potentially very good candidates and i see signals that they may be.

[ Parent ]
I'm somewhat familiar with both men
I've heard them speak quite a few times and know of their knowledge and experience.  I've always been far more impressed with Arthur Davis than Kendrick Meek.  Davis is far more articulate and experienced.  Davis also accomplished just about everything on his own merits, as opposed to Meek who has never won a competitive election and was handed his seat.  Of course Meek is still more likely to win his race than Davis simply due to the far more favorable demographics of Florida versus Alabama.  Davis really should have waited another 8 years to run statewide in Alabama in my opinion.
[ Parent ]
Move along. Nothing to see here folks..
Seriously...Gov of Alabama?? Alabama?? The state of tumble down religious drive by populism? How is Davis, a liberal democrat federal legislator (to AL voters, not voting 70% republican all the time is being a 'librul')going to win a state Obama got 10% of the white vote and before that Kerry and Gore got 19% and 25% respectively, is going to vote for Davis! Like I said..nothing to see here..move along.
Liberal Democrat?
Hardly.  But ya, he is way left of Alabama as a whole.
[ Parent ]
Interesting timing of Davis's announcement
an alabamian on davis
I don't know how many Alabamians have weighed in on this site, but it seems clear to me that the number is not great. As an Alabamian, I would put two elements in the mix: first, Davis is an extremely gifted politician, he is an exceptional speaker, he draws an emotional response from many of his supporters,  and while he lacks Ford's glamour looks, it would be a huge mistake to underestimate his candidate skills.

Second, there have been two major published polls in the last several months showing Davis ahead of the leading Republican candidates for governor. Polls are not gospel, but it is unfair to Davis to paint him as a quixotic or Denise Majette like candidate.

On the race front, time will tell how my state reacts to a living breathing black candidate for governor. I do know that the Mayor of my hometown Mobile is black and won easily in a predominately white city, and that he ran comfortably ahead of Obama in the white precincts in Mobile. I also know that a lily white rural legislative district that gave Obama 15% of the vote has a black Democratic state Representative who won with over 60%. I also know that a black who served on the Alabama Supreme Court until he lost in the Alabama Republican landslide in 2000 carried a slew of counties where Obama got trounced.

The bottom line: politics is very local here, and I would not rule out the possibility that while Davis is not our Obama that he could be our Bobby Jindal.  

Jindal
Good analogy. At least we hope so.
[ Parent ]
That's an aweul analogy
Jindal's may be a nutter, but his views they are very close to where the state is at.  Davis on the other hand has views well left of Alabama.  I'd be stunned if he gets 10% of the white vote.  
[ Parent ]
Racial analogy
Jindal lost first time around because of it.
[ Parent ]
True
But he was actually in touch with the state politically, unlike Davis.  Davis is actually a bit left of where Ford was when he ran statewide in 2004 and in a state that's a good deal more republican at the state level.
[ Parent ]
Davis "could" win
if he had a socially conservative yet economically moderate or even populist voting record in Congress, could point to a handful of significant accomplishments in Congress and represented a district in which the white vote was about 45%. But he is not any of these and that is what will sink him in the general election. AL had the highest racially polarized voting pattern last Nov. With the exception of trial lawyers and public employee unions, most white Alabamans of any income, religion or region shun statewide Dem primaries. Davis has virtually no exposure to this group since being in Congress and they account for 65% of the general election vote. Even against a lackluster wingnut like Bob Aderholt or Mike Rogers, he'd be lucky if he cracked 45%.

The guy you reference is State Rep Jim Fields of Cullman County who is the black democrat that won a 90% white and GOP leaning district (there is a Dem State Senator in Tishomingo County, MS like him also). But both these guys, sans skin color, actually fit their districts socially conservative views and have deep roots there. First, Davis went to school in Boston of all places, as opposed to 'Bama or Auburn. He doesn't even sound like he's from Alabama (and no, having that high North Carolina accent doesn't count). Second, his voting record is pretty much in the mainstream of House Dems which is full of exploitative holes for the GOP and finally, he looks young and if there is one crazy thing that counts in the deep south, looking like you are 100 yrs old even if you have the intellectual wherewithal of a 5 yr old is "experience".

[ Parent ]
In the 2008 Prez primary
blacks made up 51%, while whites made up 44%.  Given that blacks were energized by Obama to vote for him in the primary, I think a more likely breakdown of the 2010 primary will be about 50% white, 45% black.  

My guess is that if both Folsom and Sparks run, Davis will win the primary without a runoff by outspending Folsom and Sparks.  But I think he could lose against a single white opponent.

[ Parent ]
More specifically
I meant whites as a percentage of AL's general electorate shun the Dems. The rule since the late 80s has been that a Dem needs to win 30-35% of the white vote and 90% of the black vote to hit 51% in the general election.  
[ Parent ]
Doubt your scenario
will happen. It looks like Sparks will run for either governor or lt. governor, depending on which one Folsom runs for.
[ Parent ]
AL-Gov: Artur Davis Set to Announce Run | 69 comments

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