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Texas Primary Results Thread

by: DavidNYC

Tue Mar 02, 2010 at 8:00 PM EST


1:25am (J): Team SSP is signing off for the night. Feel free to keep the flame going in the comments, though.
12:43am (J): Ugh, the AP has called the TX-22 Dem nomination for LaRouchite nutcase Kesha Rogers. Check out these pics that we pulled from her campaign website.
12:36am: Man, check out that Land Commissioner race: Austin attorney Hector Uribe leads east Texas realtor Bill Burton by 236,921 to 236,634. That's less than 300 votes.
12:20am: Ultra-geezer Ralph Hall is winning with just 58%. A united front could surely unseat him in 2012 - if he doesn't retire. His weakness perhaps suggests his district might also be on the chopping block come redistricting. Despite his extraordinarily advanced age, he just doesn't have that much seniority in the GOP caucus, since he only switched in 2004.
12:12am (D): TX-17 and TX-23 Republican primaries will go to runoffs, between Flores/Curnock and Canseco/Hurd respectively. Meanwhile, over in TX-22, some f*cking LaRouchie is leading the Dem field with 53% of the vote. Hard to believe Nick Lampson was our nominee here less than two years ago.
11:59pm: Looking at the Board of Eduaction again... Over in the ominously-named District 9, "moderate" Republican Tom Ratliff is ahead of lunatic Republican Don McLeroy by just under 2000 votes with most of the votes counted.
10:59pm (J): The AP has called the Ag Commish race for Hank Gilbert. Kinky Friedman will have to find some other way into this show.
10:56pm: TX-18: Sheila Jackson Lee has been declared the victor. Jarvis Johnson got into the race too late.
10:37pm (J): Despite the snoozefest at the top of the ballot, there are some pretty suspenseful elections for the TX Board of Education -- especially in District 9. Darth Jeff has the details.
10:32pm: Looks like her wish came true: KBH just called Rick Perry to concede. Presumably her brain trust ran the numbers and found he'd stay over 50% no matter what.
10:27pm: The saddest thing is that KBH is up in her hotel suite praying that Rick Perry doesn't fall below 50%.
10:12pm: The TX-23 Dem primary has been called for Ciro Rodriguez - no surprise there. The GOP side is a bit more interesting, with Quico leading Hurd 37-31. Still three quarters of the vote to count, so maybe Quico will lose again. UPDATE: Of course, there's still the little matter of the run-off....
10:10pm (D): Check out the race for Land Commissioner - the two Dems are literally tied at 50% apiece.
10:09pm (J): 18% in, and Perry sits at 52.2%.
9:59pm (David): 13% and Perry's at 52.5%. I'm not optimistic.
9:36pm: With 6.9% in, Perry's take has nudged down to 52.6%.
9:24pm: Wowza. Incumbent Republican Railroad Commissioner Victor G. Carrillo is losing his primary to newcomer David Porter by 19 points. That's a shockingly huge spread to me, but I wasn't giving that race any attention at all. Can any local commenters fill in the gaps on this one?
9:17pm: Let's look at some House races! With 8.3% in, TX-04 fossil Ralph Hall is checking in at under 57%. In TX-17, Bill Flores leads '08 candidate Rob Curnock by 36-27. And in TX-23, Quico Canseco leads Will Hurd by 36-30.
9:08pm: The AP calls it for White, which was expected, but still good news. Perry's at 52.9% with just 2.8% of precincts reporting.
9:04pm: Just looking further down the totem poll here... Surprisingly (to me, at least), Kinky Friedman is down by about 8 points to Hank Gilbert in the Ag Commissioner race. Linda Chavez-Thompson has a bigger lead on Ronnie Earle for the Lt-Governor nod, but there are still tons of votes left to count.
8:47pm (James): Wow. It looks like Democrat Eileen Filler-Corn just barely retained the swingy VA-HD41 seat by a margin of 42 votes. I'd expect a recount!
8:31pm: While the Texas results trickle in, that VA House race is super-close. However, Johnny thinks the remaining precincts probably favor the Dem.
8:15pm: Some early numbers (less than 1% reporting) show White just crushing while Perry is over 50%.

Polls have just closed in most of Texas (though they are still open another hour in the El Paso area). We'll be bringing you returns as they come in. If you have any other good sites for results links, please let us know.

Results: Politico | Associated Press | Secretary of State

DavidNYC :: Texas Primary Results Thread
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just realized
I just realized there's 7 democrats in the running for the GOV nomination. Are any of them credible other than White?

22, male, VA-10

Farouk Shami
at least has been all over my TV screen.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
See my comment above.


[ Parent ]
He's at least running a campaign.
Though he's getting trounced.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Does anyone have a link to a live stream of local news coverage?
I know for the Illinois Primary there were a few sites where you could watch the TV news coverage of the results. Anyone have links for that in Texas?

Thanks a lot
looks good

[ Parent ]
this one's tight: VA 41st House of Delegates
https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virg...
Precincts Reporting: 7 of 15 (46.66%)

Kerry D. Bolognese (R)   2,531   50.3%
Eileen Filler-Corn (D)   2,496   49.6%


Bolognese won't win
All but one of the precincts he won in 2009 have reported, and he's only up by about 100 votes. He's run about even with his margins in 2009, while Filler-Corn has so far outperformed Marsden in some of the precincts Marsden won last year. Unless he's somehow managed to win big in the outstanding Dem-leaning precincts, he's done for.

[ Parent ]
Of course, now that I said that
he IS outperforming in the remaining precincts. Good news is 2 of the last 3 precincts went heavily for Marsden.

[ Parent ]
Filler-Corn down by 3 votes
with one precinct left.  

[ Parent ]
That precinct is Burke, and...
...it leans Dem, but not reliably so.  Democrat Dave Marsden won the precinct in the state Senate special in January 58-42 over Rethug Steve Hunt, and Marsden won it 54-44 over Bolognese in November.  But in last January's special for Fairfax County Board Chair, Democrat Sharon Bulova lost the precinct 54-46 to Rethug Pat Herrity.

What burned Johnny in his earlier projection is that normal precinct behavior goes out the window in these oddly-timed specials, so that you get weird outcomes.  The outcomes were really weird in Marsden's win in January, where he lost some clearly Dem precincts and carried some strongly GOP precincts.  They're less weird tonight, with only margins off-kilter from a regularly scheduled general.  But they're still weird enough on those margins tonight to leave us unable to predict anything.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
amazingly tight
Precincts Reporting: 14 of 15 (93.33%)

Kerry D. Bolognese (R)   5,339   49.98%
Eileen Filler-Corn (D)   5,336   49.95%


[ Parent ]
Perry looking very good
He's winning Dallas Cty. 2 to 1 early.

Interesting
Only three precincts in, but Ralph Hall is only at 59%.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

Virginia Elections
Bolognese is a long shot to win. Virginia has become pretty blue pretty quickly, and that may be too much for him to overcome.

Also, in the Fairfax County, Virginia School Board District, the Democrat Sandy Evans is leading the Republican Sam Rucker 57-42. The Democratic Primary for a Roanoke City Council seat is even closer than Bolognese's race with just 5 (!) votes seperating the top two vote-getters as of 8:12 PM.

Anybody have the connecticut results?

16, Male, MD-8.


Roanoke
the primary is for three seats, so only the last-place finisher will be left out in the general.

[ Parent ]
CT
according to the local paper's Twitter, the Republican either won or is winning, I'm not sure which they mean:

http://twitter.com/StratfordStar


[ Parent ]
Republican hold, I believe. n/t


[ Parent ]
In Texas
 I think Perry will be able to avoid a runoff. He seems to be doing poorly in the rural areas which are reporting more quickly than the urban areas.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


Uhh... really?
The rural areas are Perry's base.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
He's just about 50% right now


[ Parent ]
I thought they were too
 Until I saw the numbers. In most of the counties, Hutchinson is pulling close there but is doing poorly in the urban areas.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
All early voters
We shall see.

[ Parent ]
Good point
 But I just saw that many rural counties have precincts in and not just early votes. Perry is leading but his leads are smaller in many of them than his leads in the urban areas.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Why do you think that?
Considering that rural areas are in general more conservative (although I know nothing about Texas in particular). I guess that there are too little votes in those areas to make a difference even if Perry is doing badly?

I actually think that Perry will be forced into a runoff, but just barely (like .10% or so). Medina is performing a bit worse in the early returns than the last polls but she hasn't utterly collapsed as some have speculated.

White is doing a bit better than I thought, even considering the fact that his opposition are a bunch of nobodies. It would be nice if he stayed above 70% when the votes are all counted but its too early to say now.


[ Parent ]
In Texas
rural areas are far more conservative than the urban areas.  You would think that Hutchison's natural base would be the country club crowd, and that's mostly in the metro areas.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
The Coryell County returns are odd
Perry's won 356 of 2,334 votes there so far.  Did he do something to piss someone off there?

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

Same with Carson County. n/t


[ Parent ]
Maybe its people pissed about the trans-texas corridor


[ Parent ]
Those two counties
are entirely unrelated though.  Coryell is Fort Hood; Carson is Amarillo area.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
One precinct left in VA HD-41
Filler-Corn is down by three votes. The last precinct is Burke, which Marsden won 55-45 in 2009.

Burke in, Filler-Corn wins by 42 votes (50.2% to 49.8%).
I expected her to win by a larger margin, but I guess a win is a win.

[ Parent ]
Perry is trouncing
KBH in the metro Dallas area, i think this isn't going to a runoff.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

It still looks as though
Perry will be flirting with the 50% mark all night.  Where are you getting these results?  I'm showing Perry at around 50% in Dallas County from the SOS website.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
He is just about 50% in Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, etc
These appear to mainly be absentee/early votes.

But if there is one part of the state KBH should be running strongly, it is the Metroplex - it is her home turf, probably has the largest number of chamber of commerce/country club types in the state  -- if she can't hold Perry under 50% there, I think it is extremely difficult for her to do it elsewhere in the state unless Medina really runs up higher numbers in some of Perry's stronger areas. Unfortunately I think he's going to manage to avoid a run-off.  


[ Parent ]
Good for Perry
Leading with 218,000 votes and 53.5% of the vote. He won 63% of the vote in Harris County (Houston.)  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


Texas SOS
is showing zero votes case in Harris County.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Is the AP going to call the Dem Gov. Primary for White anytime soon?
Just looked at political and with 1.4% of the vote White has 77%. Yes more than 98% of precincts to go but there is no doubt that White has not only won but avoided a runoff completely.

Too early for the GOP side, although Perry may actually avoid a runoff after all.


They're probably going to wait
 Until 6pm PT when all the polls close in Texas.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Yep
I think three counties in Texas (El Paso, Hudspeth, and Culberson) are on Mountain time.  El Paso obviously is the only one of those that will make much difference.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Early Returns
from what I saw were absentee. Perry was 2/1 over KBH. Could it be the early county returns listed absentees first?  

Yes
Right now the Texas Secretary of State lists all the votes that are in as "Early Votes"

[ Parent ]
TX22
Rogers had 57% with some absentees in. Hope that she drops below 50% or else that district will have a LaRouche Youth member who advocates impeaching Obama as the Dem nominee

That would be nasty
Right now she is at 48.3%  (10.15 CT) -- still based on absentee/early votes only (at least it is showing no precincts in, so I assume that's what it means). Let's hope that's a sign she's going stay under 50%.

Sad this is happening in a district that a Democrat won 2 cycles ago (even considering the fluke-y circumstances of that win)


[ Parent ]
Save us Shelly Sekula-Gibbs write-in candidacy, you're our only hope


[ Parent ]
VA
Looks like Filler-Corn pulled it out in the last precinct...

That area of VA should have an election every...
...week. Nothing but nailbiters.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
LIRL
The Dem even has "CORN" in her name.

[ Parent ]
Those early numbers are brutal for KBH.
How humiliating! tee hee

Eh...
I want this going to a runoff.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Looks to me like Perry's probably heading toward 53-55%
That said, the reports so far are rather odd. Perry's overperforming in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area, while Hutchison's overperforming in the rural, less-populated regions. I'd like to see more numbers out of Dallas County and Collin County before I completely write a run-off off.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Still virtually all early votes.
Early voting isn't always indicative of the final results.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
LOL
Politico has Aguado as the projected winner for Roberts County in West Texas!  lol

ATX resident here
I don't get why that is funny... can you explain?

[ Parent ]
Because it shows
0 votes for the democratic primary, yet it shows Aguado as the "winner".

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

[ Parent ]
Wtf
is that a mistake or do they really have precint data?

[ Parent ]
They don't have
any votes there so...they decided to go alphabetically.

[ Parent ]
Expect
Farouk Shami to be legally changing his name to Aashami soon.

[ Parent ]
Huh?
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
See my comment below.
In 2008, Obama won 41 votes there.  Yes, you are reading that correctly.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Per the Texas Democratic Party website
Roberts County has no Democratic Party chairman.  Therefore, there is no Democratic primary in Roberts County.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
The mistake
The idea of a clear front runner who is probably going to win with >70% of the vote losing any county is humorous.  Plus the mistake on Politco calling other counties in West Texas for Aguado in addition to Roberts.  

[ Parent ]
Again, see the comment above.
When a county has no county party chairman, that county cannot hold a primary (for whichever party doesn't have a chairman.)  That's the case in all of those West Texas counties you speak of.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Got that
Since like 4 of us replied within a 40 second window of one another I missed your first post.

I still find it humorous that politico had some counties called for Aguado, I don't even know who that is.


[ Parent ]
Haha, yeah.
I think for those counties Politico is listing the candidates in alphabetical order.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
A recount can't be done in VA HD-41
Most of the machines used a paperless direct-recording electronic systems, which do not permit an effective recount (see p. 23 of this report.

What is KBH's base? Where should she perform best? If anywhere...


Somewhere outside of Texas.


NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Dallas-Ft. Worth area


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
LOL!


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
AP says White wins
Meh.

Is it me
or do results seem to be coming in slow?  An hour and a half after polls close, we are only at 3% precincts?

Large state


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Maybe slow reporting.
FWIW, the Brownsville Herald has a bunch of numbers (probably just the early voting numbers) in for the local races in Cameron County, but the Texas SOS is still showing zero votes in both primaries.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
TX22 update
Doug Blatt DEM 964 25.85%
Kesha Rogers DEM 1,910 51.23%
Freddie John Wieder Jr. DEM 854 22.90%

Rogers is the Lyndon LaRouche supporter who wants to impeach Obama. Wieder is a Libertarian. Blatt doesn't have any unusual traits. If Rogers get a majority, then someone needs to get slapped hard for letting a Lymming through the primary. If it's a runoff, time still exists.


Who cares
Its not like he any of them can beat pete olson.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
But it does matter
No, we're not going to take back that seat.

But it isn't good for the party to have a loony fringe candidate on the ticket -- it hurts credibility, makes GOTV for the whole ticket harder, and is just a pain in the ass to have to deal with.


[ Parent ]
Maybe people will think they're voting for pop sensation Ke$ha.


[ Parent ]
She may be a failure of a candidate
but the party don't start till she walks in.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Politico shows her under 50%, more votes
Rogers 2749 (48.4%)
Blatt 1715 (30.2%)
Weider 1214 (21.4%)

It says that represents 9.6% of precincts.

Not sure how that compares with SoS numbers, or where they are coming from.  


[ Parent ]
Save NASA, Impeach Obama
LOL. I saw a lot of these Larouche people when I went to college in DC. They're fanatics. I went to her website. She posts a video that accuses Obama of genocide in Haiti.

This will be a real barn-burner of an election in TX-22.


[ Parent ]
Speaking
literally? I could see this nutcase setting a few barns on fire. I cannot believe Texas Democrats have fallen so far that they nominate escapees from the asylum to Congress.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Jerry Ray (Tea) Hall losing badly in TX-4 R Primary
The crazy kind of fails.

Ralph Hall
still appears to be flirting with the 50% mark though.  My gut tells me that if he pulls through, he'll retire next cycle.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
C-SPAN ticker calls primary for White
The way this is going, Perry can't be far behind.  

CT results
http://www.ctpost.com/news/art...

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

Re: Carillo Losing
The republicans have a history of voting out appointed hispanics from statewide offices.

That would be funny
if it weren't so depressing.  

[ Parent ]
Clearly, part of the issue
is that when you try to narrow the pool to "Hispanic AND conservative," the odds are much greater that you'll find somebody who's not really qualified for the position than if your pool is just "conservative."

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Previously
2004, Carillo has to win the RRC spot in a runoff
2002, Xavier Rodriguez (the appointed and incumbent state supreme court justice) loses 47-53 percent

[ Parent ]
history of underwhelming races
Carrillo did not win the March 2004 Republican primary outright but faced a runoff election against the politically unknown Robert Butler on April 13 to secure the required majority.

[ Parent ]
A little better?
Perry is now below 50% in 2 of the 4 big counties which compromise DFW, Tarrant and Denton.  Hopefully that trend continues

While we're on the subject of Texas...
I just made a Texas redistricting map that creates a 25-11 GOP majority and has political data now available from Dave's app. Feel free to check it out and comment: http://www.swingstateproject.c...

Ciro Rodreguiez
Won the primary with 83% of the vote and 10% of the votes in. Politico called it for him.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


Well
wikipedia calls it for Perry. Not sure if it's vandalism or not though. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T...  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Perry now <50% in Dallas County
Good news for a potential run-off.  Perry is now <50% in Dallas County

Kinky!
Let me just say this: Texas politics may be many things, but it is not boring. Pretty much ever.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Can it really be right?
In HD-100 (D), Eric Johnson is listed as beating incumbent Terri Hodge 70-30. Might this just be geographical bias?

The closest races seem to be Uribe v Burton in the D Lands race, 50.5-49.5, and seneral R board of education spots where the incumbent is losing barely (1%) to a teabagger.

There do seem to be quite a few imcumbent legislators going down so far.

Check out the R race for Supreme Court #3: 18%-18%-17%-17%-16%-10%. Talk about up in the air with 20% reporting.


Terri Hodge is planning to resign
Terri Hodge plead guilty to a felony charge in February, I think it was about taxes and failing to report income.

[ Parent ]
That still doesn't explain the incumbents' deficits in
D HD-27 (Olivo) 16%
D HD-43 (Ybarra) 10%

Plus quite a few that are frailing 1-6%


[ Parent ]
HD-43
That's geography, I think.  Texas SOS is showing no precincts in Cameron County (Ybarra's home county) reporting, just the early vote, while most of the rest of the district is in.  Now, there may not be that many votes left to come in in Cameron (IIRC, basically the only part of the county that's in the district is South Padre Island and maybe a couple of the smaller towns.)

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
As for Dora Olivo
I think this should tell you all you need to know about her:
http://halfempth.blogspot.com/...

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Traitor
Chuck Hopson is going to hold on, winning 59-22-19 with over half the results in.

Comment deleted
A user above posted an image that somehow seriously messed with the formatting of the comments. I hate to do it, but I had no choice but to delete the comment.  

OMG, Sorry!
Oh I'm so sorry, that was me. I was just apologizing for doing that when site got funky.

So sorry....will not be doing that again...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Hey man, no worries
You didn't mean to funk anything up! It's totally cool.

[ Parent ]
Phew
I am actually sorry though, because I went through that near-heart attack thing that happens when my own site goes down. Sorry to put Team SSP through that during a liveblog. :)

In fairness to me, commenters, including me, have posted pics in the comments without messing up the site, no? I mean, I put that question mark on the end of that sentence, but I know for a fact that's true.  :)  Is it a liveblogging thing, perhaps? Anyway, that pic I was using was too big so I'm happy you deleted it.

And thanks JFM, hilarious was what I was going for...and yes, sports nuts was unexpected as one would perhaps think that would constitute part of that particular base. But no. Straight to Hell with sports nuts.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
A shame
It was pretty hilarious.

So... hell awaits "sports nuts", apparently? For serious? That's a new one to me.

Male, 23, DC-At Large


[ Parent ]
Texas SOS
is now showing Perry at 51.83%, with 28% reporting.  That's compared to 52.79% of the early vote.  It's looking like it will be close.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

MSNBC: Kay Bailey Hutchinson concedes
Does this mean even if Perry doesn't make 50% she's giving up a potential run-off?

Sad
in a way. I'm not shedding a tear though. Any chance she runs as an independent? She pretty much has nothing to lose at this point.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
No.
She would have had to file a Declaration of Intent to Run as an Independent Candidate back in December or January to do that.  (I wish Connecticut had a law like that.)

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
What if Perry still falls below 50%?
What if Perry ends up with <50% even with Kay Bailey Hutchinsons concession?  Does that make it a Perry v. Medina run-off?

[ Parent ]
Perry
is destroying her 50 to 33 percent in Dallas County, her base. I wanted this to be a scorched earth primary, sad...I guess pandering to the teabaggers works in states like Texas.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Lead is shrinking in Dallas
Perry 47.71%
Hutchinson 34.10%
Medina 18.19%

With 427 of 695 precincts reporting.  Hutchinson got clobbered, but Perry could still end up below 50% if this trend continues.


[ Parent ]
Will Hutchison contest the runoff though?
That's the question I have.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Can she?
She already conceded the primary according to MSNBC, wouldn't she have to "un-concede"?

Given how she played around with resigning her Senate seat she wouldn't be taken nearly as seriously for a run-off now.


[ Parent ]
Conceding isn't anything official
Remember that at one point on Election Night 2000, Al Gore conceded the election.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Politically though
Of course it's nothing official, but politically it would be much more difficult now.

[ Parent ]
If there is a runoff, KBH has to think
who would get Medina's votes....

[ Parent ]
Ohh well
A run-off would have been good, now we'll have to work even more diligently until election day.

[ Parent ]
Texas Board of Education Races still pretty suspenseful
The outcome of the races will have national implications- if the crazies have a majority they'll be able to get some pretty nutty material into Texas' textbooks.  Since Texas is so big publishers will use those books nationwide.

In District 9 we have a close race.  McLeroy (a crazy) is slightly behind Ratiff (a moderate).  There's no Democrat running, so the winner here will be on the board barring some very strange occurrence.  This one's worth keeping an eye on tonight: since there's only two candidates there won't be a runoff.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



Who's more moderate in...
Miller v Clayton

Russell v Farney

It seems odd that an incumbent crazy (McLeroy) would almost get primaried tonight, unless the descriptions got mixed up.


[ Parent ]
Miller's not a crazy: Clayton's problem seems to be more about standardized testing than anything else
http://www.dallasobserver.com/...

I'm rooting for Miller: the devil you know...

I'm looking into the other one now.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Clayton's a bit worse than I thought
"Clayton said evolution is and should remain in science classrooms, but he thinks the alternative theories supported by the religious right -- intelligent design and creationism -- can 'find a real nice home' in humanities, philosophy or world history classes.

"'It's seems to me you can't be taught the one [evolution] without the other [creationism],' Clayton said. 'It's an impossibility to talk about evolution without mentioning creationism.'"

http://blogs.dallasobserver.co...

I can't find anything yet on the other race, but still looking.  Come on Miller!

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Russell seems to be the worst choice
He;s endorsed by retiring incumbent Cynthia Dunbar.  Dunbar called the other candidates "disguised moderates"  To get a sense of Dunbar, she called public education a "subtly deceptive tool of perversion".  

http://www.google.com/hostedne...

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Well,
Farney has on third of the vote to make up 500 votes.

[ Parent ]
It'll go to a runoff regardless
The good news is that Russell's far behind the combined vote of Farley and Osborne.  The bad news is that in a run-off with nothing else on the ballot I'd guess the most highly motivated people to show up would be Russell's people.  

The district is probably an uphill climb for a Democrat, though I don't know if it's impossible.  It has a good chunk of Travis County and the swingy Fort end County.  The rest is pretty red though.  I'm not too optimistic, but at least we have a warm body.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Where things stand now for Board of Education
Progressives (or anyone who doesn't want creationism in textbooks) should be rooting for Ratliff, Miller, and Farney or Osborne.

Ratiff is deadlocked with the very nutty McLeroy, Miller slightly behind her pretty crazy opponent Clayton, and Farney is ties with Russell, with Osborne still within striking distance.  The later race is probably a run-off between Russell and someone better: the other two are two person races.

I can't emphasize how important these races are.  The crazies have a one-seat deficit so far.  Miller going down would give them a majority if McLeroy and Russell pull it out.  Only the Farney-Osborne-Russell race has a Democratic candidate.  Since Texas is so huge their textbooks will be used nationwide.  If much of the nation is using creationist filled textbooks we're in trouble...

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Btw thank's for including my first comment in the updates/ Twitter feed
It definitely made my day.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Some reason for optimism in District 9 (McLeroy versus Ratliff)
The precincts still out are mostly from counties Ratliff is winning.  Colin Country is mostly still out, which Ratliff is winning by a narrow 51%-49%.  Hopkins Country also has a bit to add: only one out of its 22 precincts are in, but Ratliff is winning 59%-41% there.  But keep an eye on Collin County especially: it should decide this race.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
There goes Hopkins
Breaks strongly for Ratliff, giving him 51%-49% lead.  Collin unchanged: Hopkins has given Ratliff a little bit of a cushion but Collin should still decide the race.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
I hope you're right.
The Texas Secretary of State website now shows Ratliff barely ahead, 50.95%-49.04%, with a little over 83% of the precincts reporting.  Hopefully he can hold on and knock off McLeroy.

Unfortunately, it's worse in the other race.  Clayton is winning 52.21%-47.78% over Miller, though there, less than a third of precincts have reported so far.


[ Parent ]
Me too
While Texas takes it's ganja break, I'll say this whole thing reminds me of the West Wing episode where President Bartlet, in the middle of the Midterms, is obsessed with the idea a former opponent could get elected to his kid's old school district.  Only this race actually matters.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Not looking as good anymore
A lot more of Collin has come in (88/128 of precincts) and it's narrowly now breaking for McLeroy, 51%-49%.  Ratiff still has his 51%-49% though.

However, even with the rest of Collin and the other counties out there are about 100 precincts uncounted for.  Anyone know if these are uncounted early votes or something else?

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Forget the second paragraph
I either misread the chart or there was an error that was fixed.  It's all up to Colin and a few bits of a few small counties.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Looks like
Kesha Rogers is going to wake up in the morning feeling like P Diddy, assuming that P Diddy would be leading the field with 53% with 83% of the votes counted...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Ugh.
Does this mean we actually have to root for Pete Olson to win the general election?  It's simply intolerable to have a Democrat running that wants to impeach Obama.

[ Parent ]
I think we can just close our eyes and forget this race is happening


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
but seriously
how exactly did she get through? were her opponents nobodies?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I'd assume so
This kind of thing isn't unheard of.  In 2008 a bunch of Paulites won Republican primaries in safe Democratic districts.  It wasn't early Teabaggers, it was most Republicans not bothering to vote in those districts.  I assume the same kind of thing happened here.  Most Democrats, even ones turning out to vote for White, didn't care enough to vote: only LaRouchites really bothered.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
AP Calls Farney-Russell Runoff in District 10
I don't know much about Farney but Russell's a real crackpot.  

There are a few bits of good news: unlike the two uncalled races we have a Democratic candidate.  Taking a short look at the district it has a bit of Democratic-leaning Travis County and swingy Fort Bend County.  Unfortunately most of the rest of the district is pure Red: our chances here in November are probably enhanced with Russell as the nominee, but it's probably not enough.

The other bit of good news is that Russell's far behind Farney and Osborne's combined total.  Assuming the reasonably-sane Republicans unite behind Farney he should be good.  The biggest problem I see is that in April this will be the biggest game in town and I'm guessing the crackpots will be most motivated to show up.

Hopefully Ratliff and Miller win rendering this race much less important.  If either go down this race will be extremely critical.  If both lose than we're already in trouble, but we should still hope Russell goes down in case Clayton turns out not to be as bad as I think he'll be.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



Some info on Farney
On her issues page she only has one sentence that hints at any possible craziness: "I will also work to strengthen and preserve our state and national heritage as well as our traditional family values in our curriculum."

By contrast, this is what Russell says: "When the science curriculum was under consideration by the SBOE last year, I authored the Republican Party of Texas (RPT) resolution supporting the adoption of new, rigorous science standards by the SBOE that permit students to think for themselves and ask questions about scientific theories like evolution and man-made global warming.  When adoption of the new science standards was in doubt, I helped coordinate grassroots calls supporting their adoption."

Farney may not be an ideal choice, but she seems a billion times better than Russell.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Farney
If you read her facebook profile she responds to a question by noting that "evolution does not challenge my faith".

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Good to hear
With Miller looking in trouble and District 9 still to close to call Farney may be the difference between sanity and nuttiness in the nation's school books for the next generation.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Wouldn't
Osborne voters be more likely (if less motivated) to vote for Farney in the runoff?

[ Parent ]
If they show up then yes
I've seen no mention of anything creationist or otherwise scary on her website, so she's probably the moderateish pick.  If her voters and Farney's voters show up at a decent rate this one's over.

The biggest problem I see is that they may not be motivated enough to show up.  This will be one of the few races on the ballot in April if not the only one and despite the importance of this race it's not what you'd call high profile.  I'd imagine the crazy Republicans would be a lot more energized in this low turnout affair, and a lot of Osborne people will stay home with their candidate not there.

I'll give the advantage to Farney but given the circumstances of a low turnout election this one isn't in the bag for Farney.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Doesn't look good for Miller.
With 40% of precincts reporting now, she's losing even more ground, now down 52.56%-47.43%.

And nutjob Kesha Rogers is holding steady at 53% of the vote in TX-22.  Ugh.


[ Parent ]
Hopefully Dallas is a beacon of sanity
It's about tied now: it needs to break for Miller by a bit for her to win.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
R Supreme Court slot 3
Chuck Norris's anti-judicial Rick Green is basically guaranteed the runoff, 8000 votes ahead of the next competitor.

The other that will appear in the runoff (there are 5 judge candidates) is likely to Debra Lehrmann or Jim Moseley (1,000 vote difference w/80% reporting), and Rebecca Simmons has a very long shot (another 1000 votes behind and underperforming in the non-early votes).

Does anybody have an idea of the ideologies of the three runners-up that could advance?


And Uribe
Leads by 10,000

49 precincts left
and a 1128 vote lead for Ratliff.

Re: kesha rogers
Some of the candidates that get nominated, sometimes makes you yearn for the days of smoke filled rooms and machine politics.

The bigger problem isn't the candidates, it's the voters.  People who are uneducated about the candidates and just vote because

This is one of the reasons I don't think, in Texas, we should let all the voters elect our party chairs.


Yay, the Gene Kelly argument
perhaps the problem isn't the voters, it's the other candidates.

BTW, nice of the AP to call it for Rogers, when the only precincts out are all in the best county for her opponent and they can't say that she'd stay above 50%


[ Parent ]
More in from District 9 but margin remains the same
Collin County's narrowly breaking to McLeroy but Ratliff still has his 51%-49% lead.  97% of the district is in.  Looks fairly good for Ratliff and his 1,130ish vote lead.  

To recap: if Ratliff wins and Miller goes down then District 10's runoff will be critical.  Miller's down but with so much left she's not out.    

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



Bad news: Miller (a moderate) goes down.
Assuming Ratliff's small lead holds (looks good, but not definite) than we'll have a 7-7 split, on the school board between insane Republicans and an alliance of moderate Republicans and Democrats.  This is assuming no Democrat is replaced in November by a nutcase.  However, considering Democrats have only 5 of the 15 seats on the Board, I'd say Democrats have hit their floor in Texas.  I'll need to look at the individual seats to be sure though.

The 8th seat on either side will be decided in the run-off in April.  i've written about it a bit on this page so I'll avoid repetition except to say this will be a VERY critical race.


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



TX-22 D primary: This is why you need to run a warm body.
A warm one.

Because if you don't, the zombies have their nominee waiting in the wings.  Or the vampires.  Or something.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


So
the only way to lose a statewide Texas Democratic primary if you have a Hispanic last name is to have a super-prominent opponent like Bill White. Look at the Lt. Governor and Land Commissioner results.

HD:146 PHOTO FINISH IN SAFE D SEAT!
History time first

Al Edwards was a long time incumbent in this AA district. However, he was a corporate tool (or just a tool). Progressive Miles challenged him in 2006 and won.

Then Miles went crazy, and showed up drunk at a party made out with someone against their will and waived a gun around (allegedly, probably) Edwards beat Miles in the rematch.

Well round 3 just finished.

Al Edwards (I)  5,020
Boris Miles       5,031

MILES WINS BY 11 VOTES!  W00T!

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26



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