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NY-Sen-B, NY-03: King Won't Challenge Gillibrand

by: James L.

Mon Aug 31, 2009 at 12:37 PM EDT


The NY Daily News:

"I'm not trying to kid anyone," King said in a prepared statement. "I wanted to be able to run for the Senate." [...]

"The reality is that a statewide Democratic candidate starts the race with a voter registration edge of almost 3 million. To overcome such a large margin, there would have to be intensive media coverage of the race and I would need to raise at least $30 million."

"That is why I would have run if Caroline Kennedy were the Democratic candidate. Her candidacy would have generated the media coverage and financial contributions necessary for me to run a competitive race. That's all I would have hoped for. Once the race became competitive, it would have been up to me to win it by contrasting my blue collar conservatism with her Manhattan liberalism."

"That race was not to be. Senator Gillibrand generates neither strong support nor opposition. This makes it virtually impossible for me to raise the campaign funds I would need to overcome the built-in Democratic registration advantage and the countless millions of dollars which the Democrats will make available to Senator Gillibrand."

While this is hardly a surprise at all, I can't think of a more mopey, sorry-for-yourself press release in recent history. Good grief.

RaceTracker Wiki: NY-Sen-B

James L. :: NY-Sen-B, NY-03: King Won't Challenge Gillibrand
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It was clear
as soon as Maloney dropped out that Gillibrand just wasn't going to have any race to speak of.

If Paterson drops out of the race, she's got completely smooth sailing.  


Remarkable how things have fizzled
on that front.  No primary challenge of any significance, no formidable GE opponent in sight (barring the even-more-unlikely-to-run George Pataki).

[ Parent ]
.
Or a more honest one.  Seriously, there was no reason for that level of candor.  You don't need to say that you didn't run because you couldn't win; you can just say you don't want to run.

Weird.  


Shorter version
"I think I could have beat Caroline, I know I can't beat Gillibrand".

The rest is excuses. Seriously weak.


[ Parent ]
Candor was odd
But refreshing given how most politicos give the same old "my heart's not in it," "I need to be with my family" or "I'll serve my constituents best in my current position" crap (pick an excuse from above).  He also laid out a pretty intensive strategy to win that, on paper, could have made him a player in the race.  I may not respect King as a politician but he seems like a smart campaigner who is never delusional about his chances or where he stands.

Agreed
It was nice getting a paragraph or two instead of a one-sentence statement on politico.

But, his argument for running against Kennedy vs Gillibrand, meh?  Kinda weak.  Are there really that many people in this country who dislike the Kennedy's that'd they donate to someone they've never heard of out in New York?  Especially versus the money Kennedy could raise from national Democrats who love the Kennedy's, and even more so with her being a Kennedy in the Senate with Ted gone.


[ Parent ]
Agreed
He would have only been marginally more competitive against Caroline. And can you imagine her actually losing after recent events? No chance. He should have just said he explored the race but determined a campaign wouldn't be successful. Going into details vis a vis different opponents just makes him sound like a cowardy custard.

[ Parent ]
Marginally?
Gillibrand's political skill vs. Caroline's name. Ordinarily it would have been a wash. Under the circumstances, she probably would have been more difficult to beat.  

[ Parent ]
I concur (eom)


40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Defeatist But Honest
Yeah, this press release from Congressman King makes him sound like a cowardly loser who backed out at the last minute. But for me reading between the lines, he's being brutally honest. King's basically admitting 1.) he can't raise enough money 2.) Caroline Kennedy is a very powerful name despite people not knowing much about her besides being JFK's daughter and 3.) There are more Democrats than Republicans in New York state (which I guess is obvious, but still hearing a Republican admit that is shocking).

It kind of reminds me of when Arlen Specter switched parties. At his press conference he basically said, "I can't win the GOP primary, and I'm not about to have my career judged by a bunch of right wing wackos."

So Congressman King, Loser yes, but Realist, definitely yes.


Also, if you were going to lose
wouldn't you rather lose to Caroline Kennedy?

In a kind of ego-focused way, runnign against Kennedy would have been a lot more FUN.  Media attention, slashing around, basically entertaining partisian politics.

Even if he lost, he would be remembered and talked about.  Now, zzzzzzzzzzzzzz, nobody would care if he ran and lost.


[ Parent ]
Another Reason
Why King decided against running, but didn't say it in his press release was probably his comments about Michael Jackson shortly after the singer's death. Calling him nothing but a child molester probably killed his chances of getting any support from the African American community, who last I checked constitute a ridiculously high percentage of registered voters in New York State.

[ Parent ]
I doubt he would have gotten
many votes from black New Yorkers, anyway.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
I'm disappointed
I was hoping he would leave NY-3, get crushed in the Senate race, and we would recruit a solid candidate and win NY-3.  I still hope we can recruit a solid candidate and give King a run for his money.

I thought King's message was in line with the "woe is me" approach to rationalization.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


Are we ever going to get a candidate to go against King
in NY-03?
I hope he doesn't get a free pass.  

[ Parent ]
King
We gave him our best shot in 06 and still came up way short.

29/D/Male/NY-01

[ Parent ]
How can any NY Republican
Run now. I realize this is a non-race now, but King has basically admitted a Republican can't win in NY and if we want to use as liberal an interpretation as possible for his rationale, this same logic could be applied to the governor's race.

Pataki May Be The Last Hope
Although it would take a lot of coercing from NY GOPers to convince him to run.

[ Parent ]
Like I said,
How can anyone run after King makes those comments. He has for all practical purposes said Republicans can't win this seat in 2010.

[ Parent ]
NY-03
Just curious, do you see Pete King being more weak now for his 2010 re-election in his congressional district?

Nah, He seems as intrenched as ever
NY-03 is one of the few districts where Obama barely moved the meter from Kerry's performance.  (Although Gore won it probably due to Lieberman)

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
it's close to a swing district
i.e. 53R/47D or closer.  But the trouble with winning it is that NY loses 1-2 seats after the census and Long Island population hasn't grown the necessary 10% to keep all the House districts (full and partial) it has.

NY-1 on the eastern end of LI will have to take some voters from NY-2.  NY-2 will then have to gain territory westward and eat substantially into NY-3 for 100K or 150K in population.  Reps from Brooklyn and Queens also need more constituents.  King's NY-3 will be seriously chewed up in any case and looks like a pretty obvious target for full carve-up.  He's close to 80 by 2012.  I don't see him surviving redistricting.  He's like Tony Scalia anyway: a walking anachronism straight out of a Mario Puzo book.


[ Parent ]
Close to 80?
He's 65 right now, according to Wikipedia.

[ Parent ]
Tom Suozzi
Does anyone know if Tom Suozzi lives in the district or not?  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

He does
he's from Glen Cove, but his aspirations are higher than Congress. He'll probably run for Attorney General once Andrew Cuomo announces for Governor.

[ Parent ]
Shocker: GOP rep talks honestly and candidly
Actually, scratch that...more like, politician talks honestly and candidly about electoral chances.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Dude,
he sounds like the unpopular dorky girl in high school that nobody liked whining to her diary about how nobody likes her. Throw in a couple of unoriginal Poe-inspired metaphors about the death of his ego, and he could probably make some money off of that at open mic night in Greenwich Village.


Candor was appreciated
but did he have to sound so mopey? I would expect to hear this talk from a grade schooler, high school student, or maybe an undergrad, but not from a multi-term congressman. Though, perhaps this is proof that he's lapsing into his second childhood.

It's one thing to openly acknowledge that the demographics of a state are not in your favor. It's a whole different thing to whine about it.


Didn't sound like whining
well, apart from that comment about "Manhattan liberalism".

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]

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