I'm from the district

I think it's the economy, the increase in the Hispanic vote (particularly Puerto Ricans), and a boost in the African American turnout. We also came very close (within a few %) to picking up 2 county commission races, which would have given Dems a majority, and a state legislature race (Hagenmaier) when our candidates were heavily outspent.

The county has somewhat urban areas in Lakeland and poor rural areas in the northern and eastern parts of the district. There must be a reason Republicans added suburban Hillsborough County to the district in 2002 to make it more Republican, trends seem to be favoring Democrats more recently in the rest of the district.

I would actually like to see Polk County Commissioner Jean Reed run. She's currently the only Democrat on the Commission and besides the legislative seats, it would give a candidate the most publicity in the county which makes up the majority of the district.

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by: Progressive America @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 12:33:50 PM CST

Man, this is why I love the Internet

Thanks for the local analysis! I hope you'll keep us updated regularly on this race, as it could turn out to be very interesting indeed.

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by: DavidNYC @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 12:40:56 PM CST

[ Parent ]

What do you think about

Rick Dantzle?

Also, what's your take on the Republican prospects?

Thanks for the in district perspective!  

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by: Populista @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 13:35:37 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Some info

Well his earlier runs were a bit before my time as I'm only 21, but he would certainly be a formidable candidate. Right now he is the head of the PR department for Cypress Gardens, a famous theme park in Winter Haven. I would have to imagine he would at least consider running for Congress. His base is Winter Haven, which is a pretty good one for the district.

This article discusses his consideration for running for the open seat in 2000. Then he was worried about his daughters, who have obviously left the house by now.

He's seriously interested, by the way. If he says yes, that would be some of the best news Florida Democrats and the national party could hope for. Highly respected as a state legislator from Winter Haven for 15 years, Dantzler, 43, would be an exceptionally strong contender for the 12th District seat that Republican Charles Canaday is giving up. Without Dantzler, the Democrats might not even have a candidate.

...

"I think I could finance the race," he said. "It's just a matter of whether it fits in with me and my family. ... My girls will be 14 and 12 at the beginning of that term, and that's a hard time for a dad to be away so much. I live with three pretty independent women. They know the drill, but I'm not sure I'd want to miss it."

On our side I suppose Lori Edwards, the Supervisor of Elections for Polk County, could also run. She would be a great candidate as she has also previously served in the state House and was recently elected county-wide for the Elections position. She also considered running in 2000, although now she has an even higher profile in the district. Her main worries last time were money and gerrymandering, so if the DCCC promised her fundraising that could be a boost to getting her in.

If I'm the DCCC, I would be doing heavy recruiting for Dantzle, Edwards, or Reed.

McKeel's name is very famous in Lakeland with a history of politicians in his family and the McKeel Academy schools having his family name on them. He got over 60% in 2006 when he was first elected to the state House and was previously elected on the Lakeland city commission, so he would likely be the toughest opponent.

Dockery would be pretty good for them. She's served in the state House and Senate for 12 years, but she's still fairly young (47). She also comes from Lakeland, the largest city in the district where a Democrat will need to do well.

Dennis Ross has been elected in two different state House districts in the district, with 6 of the 8 years in the same Lakeland based one as McKeel, so he could also have a pretty big base.

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by: Progressive America @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 21:04:59 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Well

I hope one of them runs, clears the field and puts together a good campaign team. Thanks for the info.  

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by: Populista @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 22:15:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Wow

Ag. Commissioner isn't even a very powerful post in Florida.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 13:47:22 PM CST

But it sets up a

Putnam vs Sink 2014 battle which is the real reason Sink is running for re-election and Putnam for Ag. Commissioner.

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by: Populista @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 14:00:19 PM CST

[ Parent ]

well what if Bill McCollum

decides to run for Governor too?

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 14:14:28 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Billy Mac?

will be past his expiration date by then. Only so many statewides one can lose before being devalued entirely.

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by: pinhickwv @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 14:16:16 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Doesn't matter

Putnam wants to be guv and McCollum will be old news by then. Putnam will be 40 at that time and seen as a "rising star." He'll win a primary if it happens.

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by: Populista @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 15:19:34 PM CST

[ Parent ]

ahhh, but it will not draw fire

the fight is going to be over revenue the next few years.

Putnam gets to build name rec while locking down agri-biz funding and gliding above the very difficult and possibly irreconcilable problem of funding the state govt without an income tax.

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by: pinhickwv @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 14:14:08 PM CST

[ Parent ]

looks like Putnam-Sink for 2014, huh?

Ag commish is a good place for Putnam to boost his statewide name rec while avoiding the revenue crisis likely to dominate Florida politics over the next few years. CFO and Insurance Commish are going to be lightning rod positions.

Hard to say how things will break over the next 5 years, but looks like both Putnam and Sink are positioning for the post-Crist era.

Besides, Putnam's luster was tarnished as his mentors fell. The House GOP caucus is moving towards a harder line and more confrontational approach than fits Putnam's style. Newer rising stars eclipsed his.

The earlier post is a good suggestion. For a Democrat to win, having a good base in Polk is a nice start. A Democrat who has won county-wide should be seriously considered.

And the post makes a very cogent point on the Hispanic numbers. The area saw a big jump in Hispanic registered voters from 200 to 2008, largely from PR and S. America. In other words, non-Cuban Hispanics, which accounts for a big chunk of the uptick in Dem numbers within Polk county proper.

As for the presidential numbers, the western and northwestern parts of the district were one areas the Obama GOTV machine micro-targeted. Their operation was incredibly precise and energetic. They contacted folks three times weekly at a minimum until they cast their early votes.

Found precincts around Lakeland and I4 where they were able to get 90 percent of reg Dems out to vote. Massive effort produced an enormous number of early Obama votes.

On top of this, the GOP GOTV effort was nearly non-existent this cycle. In 2000 and 2004 they concentrated their operation along I4 and spillover areas. Outside of late robocalling (lame and poorly timed with early voting), they sat on their hands in 2008, not even working the megachurches.

Another factor is in play here. Both McCain and Crist are Republicans who do not inspire fervor among their conservative base, whether religious right or libertarian or pro-business. Both are press release kinds of guy who do not put much stock in boots on the ground. Hard to run a good GOTV operation when your foot soldiers don't turn out themselves.

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by: pinhickwv @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 14:11:21 PM CST

I wouldn't say libertarians are that crazy about the Repubs these days

Dissatisfaction, a failing party, and Ron Paul are encouranging them to splinter off.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 14:18:04 PM CST

[ Parent ]

This is good on several levels

For starters this district is trending our way and even if republicans hold it in 2010 they will have a weak freshman going into 2012 redistricting.  That might make it necessary for republicans to strengthen the district for their guy, making surrounding districts more Dem friendly.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 14:41:32 PM CST

Putnam

Never been a huge fan of Putnam and am not shedding any tears to see him go. Im glad hes stopped climbing the GOP House ranks. Even more happy to see my favoirte Representive from my state doing so instead :).

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

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by: Kyle98632 @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 15:41:54 PM CST

But he's clearly aiming at Governor

Would you really want this guy as your party's nominee for FL Governor down the road?  If 2014 is Sink vs. Putnam I like our chances.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 16:05:10 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Go Doug Tudor!

You have the name recognition and almost beat Putnam last year. And you are right on the issues!

It's you turn to serve this country in government!

TIM CUNHA is a graduate of Rutgers University and Georgetown University Law Center. He has extensive experience in forming and managing entrepreneurial companies in diverse fields.  His business career has equipped him to understand and appreciate both the perils and potential of small business, and the constant struggle "Main Street" has competing with the special interests of "Wall Street."   He also has experience practicing law, teaching college, and conducting bio-science research. Tim and his wife Johanna, a former social worker, live in Ocala and are members of the Blessed Trinity Catholic Church. They have two sons.  Tim and Johanna continue to be avid hikers and campers, enjoying most outdoor activities.

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by: Faye for Congress @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 16:21:21 PM CST

How is a 14 point loss "almost beat"ing Putnam?

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 17:05:18 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Ooops Tim Cunha, another 2008 candidate is planning to run again

Here is Doug Tudor's short Bio:

DOUG TUDOR is a retired Navy Master Chief Petty Officer, and was the 2008 Democratic nominee for the U.S. House in FL-12.  During his active duty, Doug served as the Senior Administrative Assistant to three Commanders, U.S. Central Command - General Tommy Franks, General John Abizaid, and Admiral William Fallon - as they planned and prosecuted Operations ENDURING FREEDOM and IRAQI FREEDOM.  He has deployed into the combat zones of Iraq and Afghanistan over 30 times each.  He and his wife, Paula, live in Riverview with their children.

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by: Faye for Congress @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 16:23:42 PM CST

Young ones leaving

The youngest Florida House Republican is Adam Putnam, born 7/31/1974.  He's leaving.  Next his Tom Rooney who was just elected in November (born 11/21/1970).  Finally there is Connie Mack who is also leaving the House (born 8/12/67).  That's two leaving, all among the youngest group.

Meanwhile, Bill Young (12/16/1930), Cliff Stearns (4/16/1941), John Mica (1/27/1943), Ginny Brown-Waite (10/5/1943), and Ander Crenshaw (9/1/1944) who all pre-date the Boomers are literally hanging on for grim life.

Something is depressingly wrong about this picture.  It is a picture of slow death and not revival or comeback.  Looks good to me.

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by: David Kowalski @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 17:22:23 PM CST

Slow death?

Mack and Putnam are aiming for runs for higher office. Thats not a death, its a new generation of Republicans moving up. Its a GOOD thing IMO. Shows oppertunity for Republicans. If they were leaving and not seeking other offices, that would be different. But they arent.  

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

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by: Kyle98632 @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 18:15:34 PM CST

[ Parent ]

True

But it does show that the near future, at least for House Republicans, is very bleak.

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by: conspiracy @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 18:24:58 PM CST

[ Parent ]

A perfect face for republicans

Very representative of the old Florida rather than the new one.  If Mack and Putnam are the future of the Florida republican party I like our chances.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 18:34:38 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Rooney

Rooney's leaving? That's news to me. His uncle might get chosen to be the Irish ambassador and his brother might run for Congress in another district next year.

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by: Progressive America @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 21:57:53 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I think he's the next youngest

not leaving.

Who's his uncle and who's his brother? Are they Dan Rooney Republicans, Tom Rooney Republicans or Democrats?  

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by: Populista @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 22:20:49 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Speaking of Rooney

He's probably smiling tonight.  His family's team, the Steelers, just won another Super Bowl.  Ironically the team owner, I believe it's his uncle, is a staunch Democrat and campaigned for Obama.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 22:24:28 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Dan Rooney

who I believe you are referring to is actually a Republican. But he also did campaign for Obama, give Obama a Steelers Jersey and in the post game said that he thanked President Obama and all the Steelers nation for their support. Seemed a little unneeded but funny anyways. He's also campaigned for higher taxes and various other progressive causes so he's mostly a real RINO. I think Dan's son who's the team President is a full fledged Democrat but Rep. Rooney is a Republican. It's an interesting family. The Steelers are one of the most admirable football teams in the league, IMO. If only hometown boy Larry Fitzgerald didn't play for the Cards I would have had a clear mind celebrating the victory.    

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by: Populista @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 22:30:01 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Just a wide opne year

The entire season changed in the blink of an eye when Brady went down.  As good as Roethlisberger is he's stunk in the Super Bowls but still had two rings.  

In any case, the game wasn't a total loss for Kurt Warner.  He locked up a Hall of Fame selection with that performance.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 22:36:16 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Dick LeBeau

The announcers were raving about his call at the goal line at the end of the half but LeBeau nearly lost it for the Steelers by playing prevent defence in the fourth quarter.  I don't think Warner could throw a 30 yard pass anymore but dropping the safeties opened the middle of the field for Larry Fitzgerald whose open field running was amazing.

LeBeau went by the standard routine and did not change according to the circumstances.  I guess that holds true in politics, too.  We neeed to know who we are playing and adapt while also maximizing our own game.  Go Dems!

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by: David Kowalski @ Thu Feb 05, 2009 at 09:14:27 AM CST

[ Parent ]