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LA-Sen: Melancon Makes it Official

by: James L.

Thu Aug 27, 2009 at 11:26 AM EDT


It's on:

Three-term Congressman Charlie Melancon, D-Napoleonville, announced today that he's running for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Republican David Vitter.

Melancon, 61, former president of the American Sugar Cane League, a lobbying group, described himself as "pro-life, pro-gun Southern Democrat."

The announcement was made in an Internet video mailed this morning to his supporters.

When I heard that Melancon was going to commit himself to the race, I was actually a bit surprised. Melancon told Democratic leaders that he'd challenge Vitter back in June and make an announcement a few weeks later. The radio silence since then made me speculate that he was having second thoughts, so locking him down is a major piece of good news for the DSCC. Two polls showed Melancon within striking distance earlier in the year; an R2K/DailyKos poll had Melancon trailing Vitter by only 48-41, while PPP pegged the race at 44-32. Vitter's vulnerabilities aside, Melancon will have to run the race of his life in order to get over the hump in conservative Louisiana.

Our attention will also turn to the open seat race in the House that Melancon is leaving behind. As we outlined in detail back in June, both parties have decent benches of state legislators in the district, not to mention other downballot office-holders for the DCCC to pick over. No candidate has emerged yet for Team Blue, but I'm sure we'll see some action on both sides of the aisle in the coming weeks.

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LA-Sen: Melancon Makes it Official | 66 comments
Between this and the VT-Gov news my day has been made

Great news!
I can't stand Vitter and I really think Melancon could knock him out with the right campaign. This will probably be our best chance at winning this seat because by 2016 Diaper Dan gate will surely be forgotten.

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Good luck, I guess
I admit to a combination of doubt that he can win and indifference to whether he does or not.

I'm sure others will have different opinions.  

The question you must ask yourself is
Does this make it easier for Paul Hodes to win, or harder?
[ Parent ]
That's a fair point
but I actually expect it to make not much difference at all. We'll see if Charlie gets any traction.  
[ Parent ]
Hodes?
Hodes is from New Hampshire.  Douglas is from Vermont.  Melancon is from Louisiana.  New Hampshire and Vermont are very different states.  Burlington has nowhere near the same feel as Manchester or Nashua.  Even the snow belt of northern New Hampshire has a different feel than the snow belt (and ski slopes) of northern Vermont.
[ Parent ]
I think James is talking about
the limited resources of the NRSC.  
[ Parent ]
What I mean here is
Melancon's candidacy will force the GOP to commit resources to Vitter's defense -- resources that, in theory, could have been spent in New Hampshire.
[ Parent ]
The NRSC wont have to spend a penny on Vitter
I suspect he will hold a double digit lead over Melancon for all of the campaign.  
[ Parent ]
DSCC spent money in New Mexico, Colorado, and New Hampshire for most of the 2008 campaign
Only to cut out very late in the game even though we held significant leads throughout the entire campaign season.  You're lying to yourself if you think the NRSC won't spend money here.  
[ Parent ]
Dems only had small leads in Colorado and NewHampshire
until the very end of the campaign.  
[ Parent ]
Not really
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Granted, they just ran away with it in October, but they still had consistent leads outside the margin from about the Conventions on.

[ Parent ]
Cuts both ways
That's less money we'll be spending for Hodes as the DSCC commits to LA now as well.
[ Parent ]
However
It also means that Vitter will have to drain his war chest dry. He won't be free to give a dime to the NRSC or to anyone else.
[ Parent ]
It MIGHT Cut A Little Deeper for the Reds, Though
I'm not sure, but I've always been told that the campaign committees are, first and foremost, incumbent protection devices (which makes sense, as they're run by incumbents). If that's the case, the NRSC may be pushed to throw more money at Vitter than the DSCC would at Melencon.  
[ Parent ]
Yup
I suspect Melancon will have to do most of the fundraising himself. Though the DSCC will have made promises to get him to run they aren't going to give him limitless cash for a sure fire losing battle if it turns out that way. Especially as it looks like they will have to ring fence for Arkansas, Nevada, Colorado, Connecticut and maybe some others.
[ Parent ]
Have to agree
Not that enthusiastic, about Melancon winning, about him actually being a Senator, and seeing the DCCC spend all kinds of money to elected another worthless conservadem in the House.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Melancon would be a very frustrating senator
for liberal Democrats, another Evan Bayh type, but compare that to Vitter, who's one of the most extreme right-wing Republicans in the Senate, as well as a hypocrite. I surely won't be contributing to Melancon's campaign, but given the choice, I do hope he beats Vitter.
[ Parent ]
And I presume that Melancon
 would be far less likely to place stupid "holds" on various Obama appoitments, as Vitter is wont to do.
[ Parent ]
This is getting really dangerous
Does anyone actually believe that Melancon can beat Vitter in a blood red state like Louisiana while Blanche Lincoln is likely to get knocked off as an incumbent next door?  At the same time, we are basically giving Republicans another free House seat that we can ill afford to lose when we have so many incumbents that are fighting uphill battles to hold on.  
So many are in uphill fights to keep their seats?
Melancon's seat sounds like an uphill fight... Minnick is probably an uphill fight.  Who else?  
[ Parent ]
Probably the Sestak seat if Meehan runs
Bright, Markey, Kind(if he runs for governor), Etheridge(if he runs for Senate), Kilroy, Driehaus, Grayson, Periello, and Massa.  We are already in the hole 11 seats(10 if you give us LA-02).  This is the type of environment where any competitive open seat will likely go Republican by default simply because voters want to "check" Obama.  
[ Parent ]
I doubt that
Maybe in the Senate, where electorates are much less polarized (of course, maybe not, looking at the actual open-seat races), but in the House, most seats are just gerrymandered beyond all reason. And of course, by October, 2010, people may not want to "check" Obama at all...
[ Parent ]
A lot of our seats are gerrymandered to favor R's
Like the ones that I listed and many more.  
[ Parent ]
Apparently, not very well. ;)
And even still, that's a far different argument than saying the electoral environment augers that "any competitive open seat" will go R because people want to "Check" Obama...
[ Parent ]
Okay, Sean
Welcome to Bansville, U.S.A.
[ Parent ]
remind again which one was Sean?
Hard to keep track...
[ Parent ]
Must be BillNolan
The sky is falling, chicken little, panic stations MO is all there.
[ Parent ]
Even if all of your assumptions are correct...
The point is to put a serious candidate in every race, especially against odious sadsacks like Vitter. All he has to do is say one dumb thing (See: Allen, George) and we win. If we don't have someone in there ready to capitalize, Vitter can do whatever he wants and get rewarded for it with another term (See: Bachmann, Michelle). The point is to not give these guys any free lunches.

And of course, we're NOT "giving Republicans another free House seat"- as outlined earlier, we have a lot of potential candidates in this district, the Republicans are still going to have to work.

This is pretty much the 50 State Strategy at work. Maybe we won't win 'em all, but that's no reason not to try.

[ Parent ]
Lets look at this another way
If Mike Castle retires from his House seat in Delaware, would you give Republicans any chance of holding it?  Melancon's seat is even more Republican than Delaware is Democratic.  
[ Parent ]
Maybe
I don't really know enough about DE, but if it's elected a significant number of serious Republicans in the last couple years, I might. If that's the case, it's clearly not as "Blue" as the numbers indicate.

And that's what's going on with Melencon's seat; as described earlier, there's a lot of Democratic officeholders in this district, it's clearly comfortable sending Dems to legislative positions. I'm not saying it's a gimme, or that we we'll even win at all, but no, we're not giving it away, either.

And even all of that aside, "We'll lose a House seat!" is a pretty crummy reason not to try to unseat a loathsome criminal like Vitter.

[ Parent ]
Charlie Cook has already moved the seat to "Lean R"
Take a look.  http://www.cookpolitical.com/

Look at his other ratings.  He has moved TN-06 from "safe D' to "Likely D", OH-16 from "Likely D" to "Lean D", and WI-08 from "Likely D" to "Lean D".  To say that things are not shifting against us quickly is like putting blinders on.  

[ Parent ]
I bet a bunch of other arguments I didn't make sound silly, too!
But the problem is, I never made them, just like I never said "things are not shifting against us quickly". In fact, I've carefully said that winning this seat would NOT be easy, and may not even happen, only that we HAVEN'T given it away. Charlie Cook, in fact, agrees, as "Lean R" is, well, NOT "safe R" or even "Likely R". To say nothing of the fact that Cook's ratings are hardly infallible (Which, actually, cuts against both of us).

And of course, that also says nothing of the fact that "We'll lose a seat in the House!" is still a lousy reason to give a very conservative Republican who has admitted to committing crimes a pass.

[ Parent ]
Dems typically do better
At winning and holding opposition territory than the other way round.
[ Parent ]
That is true.
I've wondered why for a long time.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
We have a much bigger tent, and everyone
except for right wing message board ranters knows it.  
[ Parent ]
I agree about his House seat...
I think the Dems have a good shot at retaining it. This is in very, very traditionally Democratic 'Cajun Country'. Sure theres some GOP officeholders, locally, these days, but even locally i still believe its very Democratic. Of course, the problem is, national and local races are much different. But obviously Melancon proved a Dem can win it.  
[ Parent ]
Odd thing is, perhaps
Most of the Cajun transplants here in the Houston suburbs seem to be rather Republican. But they are a different breed, really. White collar and more middle class while the Cajuns in Louisiana are blue collar and less middle class.  
[ Parent ]
Melancom's seat will be eliminated in the 2010 redistricting
LA will lose a seat after the 2010 census. Rep. Cao's seat can't be touched because it's a majority-minority seat (he's the least senior house member plus he is in a very democratic district which normally would be very tempting for the GOP to eliminate). This leaves Melancom's seat as the most likely to be cracked. Also don underestimate the tribalism of Cajuns. They tend to vote Cajuns over anyone else. I don't think Vitter will have a large lead over Melacncom.  He will go all out knowing he will be out of congress in a few years if he lost the race anyways.
[ Parent ]
Im not sure if 'tribalism' is that big an issue, though
Charles Boustany, whose district includes part of Cajun Country, seems to be popular there and Wikipedia (for what its worth) doesnt list him as being Cajun at all but only mentions him being Arab American. Not even a Catholic either, but rather an Episcopalian.  
[ Parent ]
Interestingly...
Boustany's wife is the niece of Louisiana's former Democratic Governor Edwin Edwards (who is still serving a prison sentence for corruption).
[ Parent ]
LA
Hopefully we can get someone great to run for his House seat.

I don't think he has much of a chance, but I hope he wins obviously.

Charlie Melancon
Will certainly be one Democrat I wouldnt mind seeing win a Senate seat.  

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
pfft "keeping Louisiana safe from terrorists"
Come on! Terrorists aren't going to attack Louisiana. He should worry about keeping Louisiana safe from hurricanes.
Is that what you thought about Oklahoma City?
n/t
[ Parent ]
Louisiana
Has numerous oil refinery's aswell as the port of New Orleans that would make very good targets for a terrorist attack. Of course you are right in saying he should probably be more worried about hurricanes as the probablity of them hitting is much higher.
[ Parent ]
He is saying it because the state is full of Repubs
And we have seen time and time again since 9/11 that they are more likely to shit their pants at even the mention of the word.
[ Parent ]
If he wants to dye his hair
He should at least get it done by a pro, rather than using a box of "Miss Clairol" from Wal-Mart.
He'd a be a conservative Dem senator,
but I'm always in favour of taking out Republicans with whatever's at hand, particularly a personage as repugnant as Vitter.

The video has a good spiel (though it seemed to me like his accent was coming and going).

GREAT NEWS !!
This house seat is lost in redirecting anyways.  What's one house seat, in a state that the Dems will pick up one anyway in 2010.

This is the one and only chance to seriously contest this seat.  It's now or never.  Why would you anyone advocate leaving it on the table?

Vitter could win big, or he could get beat.  We will never know, if we don't try.  Whatever happened to 50-state strategy??

The only poll on this race showed Melancon within striking distance.  

I honestly don't see a downside to this.  

I agree
Strongest possible get and worse case is that the Cao seat will cancel it out and whoever wins there will be a more reliable vote in the House anyway.
[ Parent ]
50 State Strategy
I for one have become less enthusiastic about it in its current practice as it has too often involved running near-Republicans.  The mantra of electing the better than the Republicans so you can get more done has had its veneer stripped away by the actions of the Blue Dogs and other conservadems on healthcare, climate change, etc.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
There's nothing 'new' about Blue Dogs...
... they used to be called Boil Weevils. The demise of Boil Weevils led to ...  a GOP takeover.

Is that what you want again?

If the Blue dogs start losing, the RED elephants will trample your majority.  

The US is not nearly as liberal, as everyone on here wants to think it is.  You MUST hold a portion of the middle ground to pass ANYTHING. That is particularly true when you are passing MAJOR legislation of the nature of Obama's agenda.

Find the compromise that lets you keep a sufficient number of Blue Dogs.  That's the real world of national poliitics.  Better get use to it.      

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I sincerely hope Joel Chaisson (pronounced 'shas-on' for you Northerners) runs for his seat.

Any Democrat that thinks Melancon is too conservative obviously has no idea what Louisiana is like.

His post-Katrina work alone makes me proud to be in the same party as he.

[ Parent ]
Party?
I wouldn't look at it that way, cause your also in the same party as Kathleen Blanco, and I'm in the same party as Bobby Jindal, but also George Bush.
On topic-
This is bittersweet. One, we have a better chance at Melancon's seat, but Vitter Melancon is also a strong candidate. If Vitter can hammer Melancon on the stimulus enough for it to stick, he wins. If he hammers Melancon alot for his support of BHO, he wins. If he fails epically at attacking Melancon, he wins.If Melancon doesn't attack Vitter (most of his attacks would be seen a plusses in LA) and stays positive, especially about his response to Katrina, it will be closer, depending on the effect of his and Vitter's message  
[ Parent ]
Why is the stimulus unpopular in Louisiana?
And are you sure it is? The Louisiana State Legislature overrode Jindal's opposition to it, right?
[ Parent ]
No
The Dem majority legislator voted to reject it. Even the Dems here are against it. And I don't believe there have been any polls on it, but anyone I talk to about it is unhappy.  
[ Parent ]
Wait a second
Are you saying that Louisiana refused the stimulus money?
[ Parent ]
Yes.
Our Dem controlled legislator refused the unemployement portion of the stimulus. Haha. Thats funny. Our Democratic controlled legislator denied it, but SC's GOP controlled legislator accepted it.  
[ Parent ]
So the upshot is
that unemployed people get cut off sooner? I still don't really understand how power is divvied up between the Federal and State governments. It's kind of surprising to me that states can refuse Federal funding.
[ Parent ]
Wrong year
In a better climate for Dems (like 2006), Melancon would probably have a 50/50 or better shot to take out Vitter, but I don't think Melancon has much of a shot this time around. I guess he's just taking a shot at it since he knows he's on the chopping block come redistricting time.
The year will be 2010, not 2009
None of us knows what things will look like next year. Neither panic nor irrational exuberance is appropriate.
[ Parent ]
Yes
This is great news!!!!! Go Melancon!
In case anyone complains...
that Melancon is pro-life, let us remember that as of 2005, Louisiana was the 2nd most pro-life state in the Union.  This is not a state where a pro-choice candidate can win statewide, unless there's a MAJOR scandal embroiling the other guy.  As we've seen, even enjoying the company of prostitutes while wearing diapers is NOT considered enough of a major scandal, else he would've resigned a while ago.

Also, Obama did worse than Kerry in Louisiana, one of the very few states (along with Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee) in which that happened.  It isn't a state that's trending Democratic either.

Landrieu
She's pro-choice. Then again, her last name may have helped. I'm not sure if Mitch is pro-choice or pro-life though  
[ Parent ]
Mitch
too is pro-choice.  It's fairly safe in New Orleans, but outside of it, even in Democratic South Louisiana, it's fatal.
[ Parent ]
LA-Sen: Melancon Makes it Official | 66 comments

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