Unfortunately

this is a district that we have no chance, especially against Strom Thurmond Jr.  We probably have less of a chance here than even in the open seat KS-1.

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by: IHateBush @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 20:02:28 PM CST

yeah

SC-01 or SC-02 we'd definitely have a shot at, but SC-03 and SC-04 are wingnut territory.

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by: skaje @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 20:20:00 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Which branch of the family is Thurmond Jr. from?

The white or the black branch?

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 20:20:14 PM CST

Strom Thurmond, Jr.

So he must be like, what, 80? ;) Just kidding ;)

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 20:55:53 PM CST

36 or 37

according to Wikipedia

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

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by: tommypaine @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 21:30:05 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Ew

Knowing that the Senator was born in 1902, I'm doing the math on that...

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by: Nathaniel90 @ Thu Mar 05, 2009 at 00:06:51 AM CST

[ Parent ]

He fathered his first (legitimate) child at 68.

So he was about 70 when he fathered Strom Jr.

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!

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by: californianintexas @ Thu Mar 05, 2009 at 01:44:36 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Oh.

And he cheated on his 4th wife at age 88!

http://www.politicsfirst.com/f...

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!

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by: californianintexas @ Thu Mar 05, 2009 at 01:45:28 AM CST

[ Parent ]

so it's a R+18 open seat

R+16.5 if you average 2004 and 2008. Other Democrats have recently won southern double-digit-R open seats; Travis Childers, Parker Griffith, and Bobby Bright. I'm hopeful that we have a good candidate to make it worth trying.

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by: duffman @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 21:45:35 PM CST

From Roll Call (linked above by David)

Recent election results, however, suggest the difficulties Democrats could have in flipping the seat. In 2004, President Bush won two-thirds of the vote in the district, which is heavily rural, poor and includes a military population approaching 15 percent. Still, Fowler claims the tide is turning and said Dyer would again be up to task next cycle. If not, Democrats also are grooming state Rep. Paul Agnew, whom Fowler called "very impressive."

Agnew's bio is available here.

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by: James L. @ Wed Mar 04, 2009 at 21:51:15 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Yeah I think it's worth a shot

Perhaps if you could organize the African American vote in North Augusta and Aiken you could drive up the numbers here slightly plus I think we need to do as well here as possible to keep Republicans from taking Democratic parts of the 2nd district and stuffing them into this district to make the 2nd safer. If we can scare them enough this election perhaps they could keep the 2nd as is and make it our top pickup target statewide.

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog

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by: fitchfan28 @ Thu Mar 05, 2009 at 01:31:39 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Ok honestly

Who here has actually heard of Rep. Gresham Barrett before?

Cause I have not. EVER.

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by: trowaman @ Thu Mar 05, 2009 at 03:00:56 AM CST

I have

I make a lot of lists and unfortunately the names stick in ny memory.  I can't say anything much about the guy.  His name is much more meorable than say fellow SC Republican reps Henry Brown and Bob Inglis.  Josiah Bonner, now there's a name.  Alas, no more Porter Goss.  Sounds like a weird alcoholic beverage.

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by: David Kowalski @ Thu Mar 05, 2009 at 03:12:42 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Barrett was the least notable to me

I used to live in South Carolina so I remember Spratt and Clyburn for sure, they were pretty powerful guys even back then.  Inglis, I remember because of his failed run against ole Senator Fritz Hollings back in 1998.

Brown and Wilson I had heard about more recently because we actually made serious runs against them this past year.

But Barrett, I'd only ever just seen his name on roll call lists.  Total back-bencher.

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by: skaje @ Thu Mar 05, 2009 at 10:30:29 AM CST

[ Parent ]

First heard his name last year

When it was first rumored that he was gonna run for Governor. My first reaction was (pardon the language): "Who the fuck is that?" Sort of like my response to hearing Ander Crenshaw's name for the first time, or when John Peterson announced his retirement last year.

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by: James L. @ Thu Mar 05, 2009 at 12:57:26 PM CST

[ Parent ]

First hearing about Bob Bennett (R-UT-Sen) was like that for me.

I think that was the last senator I found out about.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Mar 06, 2009 at 13:06:47 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Really?

To me Enzi and Thomas of Wyoming and Crapo and Craig (until the men's room incident) of Idaho were as obscure as it gets.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Mar 07, 2009 at 23:34:25 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Either I never noticed the name because it didn't stand out

or I really did take that long to get it.

I learned of Thomas when he ran for re-election against Dale Groutage, Crapo was notable for his last name, and Craig Thomas and Larry Craig were notable for their common name.

It did take me a small bit of time to mentally separate Mike Crapo and Mike Simpson though.

Now, as for the House...there are a TON of representatives (probably a majority of them Democrats) in non-competitive districts (especially in big states like California, Pennsylvania, New York, and Texas) that I don't know.  I can name you most of the small-state reps, though.

I've recently been trying to memorize the seniority of each state's pair of Senators.

Idaho: Gov. Butch Otter (R), junior Class II Sen. Jim Risch (R), senior Class III Sen. Mike Crapo (R), Rep. Walt Minnick (D-ID-01), Rep. Mike Simpson (R-ID-02)
Wyoming: Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D), junior Class I Sen. John Barrasso (R), senior Class II Sen. Mike Enzi (R), Rep. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY-AL)
New Hampshire: Gov. John Lynch (D), junior Class II Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), senior Class III Sen. Judd Greg (R), Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH-01), Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH-02)
Connecticut: Gov. M. Jodi Rell (R), junior Class I Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I), senior Class III Sen. Christopher Dodd (D), Rep. John Larson (D-CT-01), Rep. Joe Courtney (D-CT-02), Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT-03), Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT-04), Rep. Chris Murphy (D-CT-05)
Maine: Gov. John Baldacci (D), senior? Class I Sen. Olympia Snowe (R), junior? Class II Sen. Susan Collins (R), Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-ME-01), Rep. Mike Michaud (D-ME-02)
Utah: Gov. John Huntsman (R), senior? Class I? Sen. Orrin Hatch (R), junior? Class III Sen. Robert Bennett (R), Rep. ????? ????? (R-UT-01), Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT-02), Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT-03)

I don't know the seniority order between Collins and Snowe in Maine.  And the question marks are obviously someone I don't remember.  But this is just a partial list.

Okay, yeah, I only know about 100-150 Representatives' names.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sun Mar 08, 2009 at 11:38:54 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Barrett who?

Barrett has low name recognition here in SC, too, especially compared to perceived front-runner AG Henry McMaster.

He's also a pretty generic GOP candidate and his far-right social conservative leanings are a bit much even for most South Carolinians. However, Barrett has hired some of the most innovative web and communications consultants in the state to run his media operations and increase his profile. He's likely to have the most suped-up website, direct email campaign, and social media effort of any candidate early in the campaign season. Already his email announcement and intro video have gone viral across the state.  

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by: Elonkey @ Thu Mar 05, 2009 at 13:53:51 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Do we have ANYONE on our side?

Is there any credible Democrat at all likely to run in 2010 or are we just giving this race away?

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Mar 05, 2009 at 14:02:24 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Vince Sheheen

A Dem State Senator from Kershaw County (a swing county near Columbia) filed to begin raising money last month. He's a young moderate, from a prominent SC political family with ties to the conservative Upstate region. There's a lot of buzz around him. He's hired a fundraiser and begun campaigning around the state to raise his profile. Very promising.

Others interested in making a run are SC House Minority Leader Harry Ott and State Sen. Brad Hutto. Mullins McLeod, a wealthy Charleston attorney, is also said to be interested in running (could self-finance).

Any Dem faces an uphill battle running for statewide office in SC, but if a Dem candidate can raise enough money to be competitive, he/she has a shot in 2010. Working to our advantage, the GOP primary is already shaping up to be a brutal showdown between AG McMaster, Lt. Gov. Bauer and Barrett. They're likely to go nuclear on each other before primary day. Should be fun to watch.

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by: Elonkey @ Thu Mar 05, 2009 at 17:51:54 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Lindsay Graham

Its hard to believe Lindsay Graham use to represent this part of SC, as its amongst the most socially conservative part. He seems a better fit in the Charleston-based district.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Thu Mar 05, 2009 at 14:15:27 PM CST

[ Parent ]

He is extremely socially conservative

And the people of SC have always seemed perfectly content ignoring his "personal life" so long as it doesn't beccome public.  Similar to McHenry in NC.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Mar 05, 2009 at 15:31:34 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Graham

By national standards sure but I meant by South Carolina standards

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Fri Mar 06, 2009 at 00:00:48 AM CST

[ Parent ]