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TN-06: Gordon to Retire

by: James L.

Mon Dec 14, 2009 at 11:47 AM EST


More bad news for the DCCC:
Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN) will retire after 13 terms, he announced today in a press release, becoming the 4th Dem in a potentially competitive district to step down in the past 4 weeks.

First elected in 1984, Gordon had a solid hold on his seat, winning his past 5 re-election bids with more than 60% of the vote; his office said he has never lost any of the 15 counties he represents. He is stepping down, he said, after re-evaluating his future.

"When I was elected, I was the youngest member of the Tennessee congressional delegation; now, I'm one of the oldest. In fact, I have members of my staff who weren't even born when I took office. That tells me it's time for a new chapter," Gordon said in a statement.

At a PVI of R+13, this seat will be even tougher than John Tanner's open 8th District (R+6) to defend. While Al Gore just barely lost Gordon's district in 2000, Barack Obama was crushed here by 25 points last year. (John Kerry didn't fare much better in the interim, losing by 20 points.)

It's unclear whether Dems have anyone on the farm team who will step up to run for the seat. For the Republicans, a primary is expected between Rutherford Co. GOP chair Lou Ann Zelenik and state Sen. Jim Tracy.

UPDATE: Hotline On Call posts the names of a few possible Democratic contenders:

A Dem source points out early names floated as possible Gordon replacements, including state Reps. Mike McDonald and Hank Fincher, Wilson Co. Property Assessor Jack Pratt, Wilson Co. Sheriff Terry Ashe, ex-state Sen. Andy Womack and Kent Syler, a top Gordon aide.

LATER UPDATE: Politico also mentions Murfreesboro mayor Tommy Bragg as a possible Democratic candidate.

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TN-06: Gordon to Retire | 117 comments
Think we might be due
A fresh retirement watch. See who might be next.
good idea--Gordon was on the list
[ Parent ]
Target list
Ike Skelton, 78 (MO-04) R+14 (McCain +23)
Rick Boucher, 63 (VA-09) R+11 (McCain +19)
Alan Mollohan, 66 (WV-01) R+9 (McCain +15)
Marion Berry, 67 (AR-01) R+8 (McCain +21)
Nick Rahall, 60 (WV-03) R+6 (McCain +14)
Mike Ross, 48 (AR-04) R+7 (McCain +19)
John Spratt, 67 (SC-05) R+7 (McCain +7)
Allen Boyd 64 (FL-02) R+6 (McCain +9)
Vic Snyder, 62 (AR-02) R+5 (McCain +10)
Baron Hill, 56 (IN-09) R+6 (McCain +1)
Earl Pomeroy, 57 (ND-AL) R+10 (McCain +8)
Tim Holden, 52 (PA-17) R+6 (McCain +3)
Collin Peterson, 65 (MN-07) R+5 (McCain +3)
Sanford Bishop, 62 (GA-02) D+1 (Obama +8)
Loretta Sanchez, 49 (CA-47) D+4 (Obama +22)
Leonard Boswell, 75 (IA-03) D+1 (Obama +10)

From that I would say most likely to quit are Skelton, Boucher, Mollohan, Berry, Spratt and Peterson. That would be managable I think.

[ Parent ]
Dammit! I knew this was going to happen
Gordon has been surviving as a fairly liberal rep in this uber-conservative district because Middle TN voters did not associate him with the national party and the TN GOP never could make the case against him. Once, however, that changed, he was toast. He probably saw poll numbers to that effect. This seat is gone.

I would keep an eye on Rick Boucher and Vic Snyder, as well as Jim Spratt, Colin Peterson, Ike Skelton and even Ben Chandler.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

Collin Peterson
Decent bet there I think. Would be shocked at Chandler. He is only 50.
[ Parent ]
Peterson has threatened to retire before
When the House passed some new ethics bill, it involved some provision about restricting personal flying or something, which caused Peterson to threaten to retire because then he wouldnt be able to fly around his district and would instead have to drive I believe, or something like that.  

Factor in him having to have his arm twisted as Ag chair, he may be one to retire.  Although, Id certainly hope he'd wait one more cycle and just let us dismantle his district in redistricting first.

[ Parent ]
If nothing else
this is shaping up to be a realignment election, with Rs winning seats like TN-06 and LA-03 while Ds win seats like DE-AL and PA-06.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
PA-06 is not guaranteed.

[ Parent ]
No
But it would be malpractice not to win it. Dems won open seats like that in 1994.
[ Parent ]
This is the year for Democratic malpractice.

[ Parent ]
Still don't think it is that bad

[ Parent ]
I think that comment requires explanation, James L.......
The DCCC and other allies have played their cards extremely well the past couple cycles, and frankly Van Hollen has done a good job so far this cycle with candidate recruitment.  And we still have fewer Dem-held open seats than GOP-held open seats, with the difference in arguably competitive open seats still only a very small GOP advantage.

It's one thing to say you think we'll have a tough year, but it's quite another to say at this point you EXPECT our party apparatus, whether locally, statewide, or nationally, to perform badly to make things even worse than they otherwise would be.

And I still stand by what I said in a comment in another discussion thread earlier this month, that I was humbled enough last year by wrongly predicting we'd lose Bud Cramer's seat to not be so quick to write off a particular seat.  To be sure, I still think a guy like Walt Minnick is toast given his district, but I don't write off these districts where Democrats have been successful locally.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I agree
Our committees are still doing extremely well and can afford to fund all of our incumbents in need of cash - for now.  Though I do still believe the DCCC may need to prioritize should we have many more retirements.  In my view the Dem-held seats in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania are more important to hold than say seats in TN and AL or ID-01.  Whatever we win or lose in states like OH or PA are likely to be locked in when an incumbent ptrotection map is implemented in those states for 2012 while we are going to lose the AL and TN seats eventually regardless.
[ Parent ]
But "eventually" could take a long time
Yes, the party may have to prioritize, but a 50-state strategy, or something like it, is a much better one as long as they can do it. There were some surprising victories in the 2008 Presidential elections.  

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Oh I agree
Which is why I want to see the DCCC support all incumbents for as long as possible.  Only when it becomes obvious they have no chance of winning should they be abandoned (for example Lampson in 2008).  Also, it really doesn't help a lot of these people by running DCCC ads in the ruby red districts.
[ Parent ]
That sounds sensible to me
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Moreover
The votes we lose from members in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and the like are likely to be much more tangible than the votes we lose from Blue Dogs.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Okay
"Malpractice" is the wrong word to use. But I don't think local Democrats or even the DCCC would necessarily need to commit malpractice to lose PA-06. I'm underwhelmed with the Democratic frontrunner in PA-06 (Pike), and it's not unforeseeable that the Philly burbs may experience some GOP bounceback in the Gube race next year that could seep down the ticket -- if I recall correctly, the Democratic candidate in the state's Supreme Court election last month ended up doing pretty poorly in the SE PA 'burbs, almost like the clock was turned back 10-15 years.

That is not to say that I think we'll lose the race -- I consider it a Tossup at this point. But I think the potential exists for Democrats to lose it even while not committing "malpractice".

[ Parent ]
It's probably lean at this point though
I wanted to put IL-10 there too but I think that's barely leaning our way if at all. Beth Coulson seems like a strong candidate.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I agree
Were I in charge of strategy at the DCCC, I'd be working on bolstering incumbents and even playing offense in the Blue States, and let the chips fall where they may in the South. If the narrative continues to be one of an intensely polarized political climate, rather than the de-marginalization of the GOP, that on balance is probably as close as we can come to a win.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Right now the DCCC doesn't HAVE to make the choice you suggest...
...because they have so much more money than the NRCC.  That could change and even up more during the next many months, but so far the DCCC has continued outraising their counterparts in spite of "the bad environment."  And our individual incumbents also are outraising their would-be GOP challengers substantially.

Don't be so sure we can't play a really big map next year.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
it might have been a tough hold
and frankly I'm not sure I want the DCCC spending millions defending an R+13 seat here.
Agreed
More bang for buck spending resources elsewhere.
[ Parent ]
Hey, it depends on the candidate and campaign, as always......
Don't write it off so soon.  I did that last year with AL-05, Cramer's seat.  And the Democrat won.  He's proved a DINO, but he's still less conservative than the Repub he beat.

The DCCC will play it smart by helping to recruit a good candidate, and playing in the district if a good candidate running a good campaign proves competitive.  And that's as it always should be, no matter the nature of a given district.


43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
And it's mostly defense this year
The only positive to having a limited number of targetted takeovers is that you can concentrate on protecting incumbents.  Nearly all endangered incumbents we have are going to outraise their challengers - some by a huge margin.  It's just the advantage of incumbency.  Throw in big cash margins for the Dem committees over their republican counterparts and it leaves republicans scrambling for cash.
[ Parent ]
Makes me wonder if they are all seeing numbers
that we aren't seeing.  Wonder if poll numbers are scaring them off and Southerners are finally finishing off their realignment.  And it all took it was a black guy to be President....
No really
Those numbers are out in the open. Not really a surprise.
[ Parent ]
I mean more like internals
not Obama approval ratings and such.  Maybe Gordon and Tanner both have been running internal polling and dont like the numbers they are seeing.

If we are going lose a bunch of seats, lets just make sure we keep them limited to the South.  If we lose like 20 seats and more than 75% of them are from Southern districts, no news media could skew the results so much so that people dont recognize it.  If they list out the seats or show a map, it'll be near impossible for the narrative to not have a hint of, well the South is off doing their own thing.

[ Parent ]
it's not even worth fighting
for this seat.  Spending $$$ to hold an R+13 seat in the south in this environment is just foolhardy.  We've got better options on the board than this.  

Whoever the Repub is will win this one easily.  At least in TN-6 we've got a good candidate which makes it a toss-up.  If Davis retires TN-4 is gone also (I think it might be gone anyway even if Davis stays in)  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

Rules
Anyone know why Gordon opted not to go back on Rules after he was kicked off following the '94 election (b/c the Democrats lost seats on the panel when they lost the majority)? He was senior to Slaughter before '94, so he'd be chairing that (instead of Science) if he hadn't gone to Energy and Commerce instead.

And is there any chance this helps us with holding Tanner's seat (since more of the TN Republican money will perhaps be heading to Gordon's district than it would have been otherwise)?

[ Parent ]
If I understand correctly...
If I understand correctly, the Rules Committee membership is selected by the Speaker.  At least for the majority party.  I would assume the minority leaderrship selects the members on the minority side.  So, it may be less of a case of choosing not to return and more of a case of Pelosi not letting him.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Whoops
meant to say TN-8, we've got a good candidate there, not TN-6

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
I disagree
As others have posted, wait and see who the Democratic candidate(s) is (are). If the Democratic candidate has a chance to win this election - even if it looks like a long shot - the DCCC should spend some money.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
First Time Poster
    I really think you guys are exaggerating the seriousness of all these red state retirements. This level of retirements is frankly expected (In fact I thought at this time it would be alot worse).

   In the end its likely that the GOP will take c5-8 open seats and beat another 10-15 incumbents while Ds add 2-3 hardcore liberals. A large portion of the losses will likely to be moderate to conservative dems anyway, so the effect on your majority will be even less. BTW nowhere near as bad as GOP senate retirements (OH, NH, KY, MO, FL,...)

First time poster from Ireland. It's a great site and it sounds like a good group of posters too.

Welcome!
Welcome to SwingState!

I'm not sure if Irish politics are totally off-topic for this site, but if it's permissible, I'd be interested in an occasional post about Ireland and its position in Europe, in an open thread.

Enjoy your stay here.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
On the up (optimist) side . . .
TN Democrats lost the House last cycle and were unlikely to hold the governorship next year giving the Republicans the trifecta to gerrymander. Tanner, Gordon, and Davis were going to get some real ugly districts next cycle that were going to be hard for them to hold as incumbents. These two don't bother me as much as Moore retiring.

Also, if Colin Peterson retires, it means we get a better agriculture committee chairman, which I would greatly appreciate.

No upside to Boucher, Snyder, or Spratt throwing it in.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

The house Ag committee
Is loaded with moderate to DINO democrats.  Vice Chair is Tim Holden.  He would probably be an improvement over Peterson but not by much.  
[ Parent ]
Much worse than the Tanner retirement
While Tanner's district remains pretty Democratic on the local level, Gordon's has been overtaken by the solidly-Republican suburbs of Nashville. Aside from Murfreesboro and some of the counties on the eastern edge of the district, there's not much favorable territory for the Dems there. I don't see Democrats holding this one.
So, what are the odds that Lincoln Davis retires now?
3:2?
I dunno
I really think he would have run for Governor if he were stepping down from the house.
[ Parent ]
I would expect
he'd want to avoid capping his career with a loss, be it for the House or for Governor.
[ Parent ]
Goodbye TN-06
If we can hold a seat like this, I would be shocked. At least it looks like there's a solid local bench. Speaking of, we still don't have any sort of candidate in KS-03 and Moore was first to announce his retirement.

And I say this every time but ....please not Ike Skelton, please not Ike Skelton. Just one more term, man, one more term.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Man, this article is depressing
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

Blaming the WH is not the answer. Cowards.

I don't buy it
Democrats has historically low numbers of retirements for the past few cycles, probably because many of them wanted to be in the majority for their last few elections after 12 years of republican rule.  And even still our numbers of retirements are far below that of house republicans in 2008.  Historically low numbers of retirements cannot go on forever.
[ Parent ]
Ouch
I usually like Redi Wilson's pieces but this one was hackjob.  Calling a President with above 50% approval ratings "politically radioactive" is crap.  I also take umbrage to this "we're doing too much" meme the piece was promoting.  Too much?  The Democratic Congress hasn't done enough!  Why the hell do they think Dem motivation is so low?
[ Parent ]
Too much
I have no doubt Reps. in Republican territory believe that.
[ Parent ]
That may be
but I don't like hearing that from leadership.  Above all else, voters don't like ineffective incumbents.  You need to pass some big items in order to have something to show for when you're on the campaign trail.  Doing nothing will get you the same if not worse results in those areas, and to boot you won't have passed any of your prized legislative goals.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
Not only is this bullshit; it's also a Republican frame:

Dems face "a political environment that Obama created by pushing an agenda this fast."

The alleged "senior Dem consultant" who's shoveling this shit is incompetent.

Anyone who thinks the Democratic Party was elected to just twiddle its thumbs and whistle Dixie while the country went directly down the toilet is an idiot. The voters elected the Democrats because the Republicans almost destroyed the world economy and the Democrats promised to right things. And lest I be accused of promoting a stridently leftist viewpoint, this is more about competence - doing what's necessary to fix things in this country - than ideology, for a lot of voters.

The consultant, though, warned that Obama could be "politically radioactive" by next year.

That's from the same incompetent anonymous consultant. A Lieberman supporter, perhaps? President Obama will be quite popular in 2010 if the Democrats in Congress pass enough jobs programs to get lots of people to work and manage to override Senator Lieberman's attempt to veto any kind of insurance reform worth a damn.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
The South is gonna suck in 2010...
... that is becoming more apparent every day.  We better hope for a significant turn around in the economy next year.    

It's been a rough month since just priot to the off-year elections (VA/NJ) going through today.  I hope for an  end to this trend, soon.  

Yes
But it is important to point out we have far fewer southern seats than we did in 1994.  Back in 1994 we even had some GA seats and FL-01 which are some of the reddest in the country.  There just aren't an overwhelming number of southern seats to be lost.  Thankfully the bulk of Dem margins in the House are in the northeast and west.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
2010 is going to be a polarized election.  The very strategy that will allow the GOP to make gains in the South and pockets out West (attack Obama, appease the teabaggers) will precisely limite their gains in the Northeast, upper Great Lakes, and West Coast.  1994 was so successful for the GOP because they turned the election into a massive referendum on how the long-controlled Democratic Congress was running things and they offered a compelling alternative plan that voters could buy into.  That hasn't quite happened yet - even though the GOP does well on the generic ballot they don't have a decided advantage there, and most folks still trust Democrats over Republicans to handle the big issues of the day.  Once those sentiments start shifting decidedly for the Republicans I'll be concerned, as that means voters are really serious about turning the keys of government over to the Republicans.  I don't see that happening though - their leadership isn't strong enough to promote a unified, coherent agenda (besides "stop Obama") that would be needed to push them over the hump.
[ Parent ]
The economy, stupid
That slogan is still true. It's still the economy (and health care), stupid, as long as there's no horrible calamity from domestic terrorism or foreign wars that's so severe as to pull attention away from everyday life.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
The problem with HCR
Is this stupid 2013/2014 window.  Not much kicks in until then.  When HCR passes people are going to see little to no difference for four friggin years.  For low-informed voters (which is the bulk of the American electorate) I'm worried they will go to the polls in 2010 seeing HCR as a failure even though it hasn't kicked in.
[ Parent ]
Yes, that window is idiotic
But if the economy is in much better shape in 2010, that should blunt Democratic losses significantly.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
True
As crappy as the current healthcare system is the overall economy will be by far the biggest factor in 2010.  Almost all signs are pointing to a solid recovery.  Sadly jobs/unemployment is a lagging indicator.  There is no certainty the unemployment rate will improve significantly by November 2010.
[ Parent ]
Which is why more jobs programs are politically essential
I think they're morally essential and practically a good thing, if directed toward important repairs and innovations for the future, much as the FDR programs were, but politically, the Democrats would be fools not to see how necessary they are.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Agree completely
Though this should have been done in early 2009 not late 2009/early 2010.  A great jobs/small business bill can still do wonders by 2012 but it likely wouldn't do much by the 2010 elections.  Still it must be done and done soon.  With all the TARP money now being repaid it's probably a good strategy to use that money for jobs investment.
[ Parent ]
My other worry
Is that should the republic party come within a few seats of a house majority some of "dems" might switch sides.  Does anyone honestly believe folks like Bright and Griffith, assuming they survive by slim margins would not flip parties if the margin in Congress was very close?  Many of these people hate being democrats anyway.
They'd flip if majorities switched
But I don't think they'd flip to change control of the entire House.  That's too big a move for them (considering they try to shy away from controversy as much as possible) and I don't think they'd want that to be their legacies.  I could see a Jeff Sessions type of switch though so they could still enjoy the benefits of being in the majority.
[ Parent ]
Hard to imagine any of them having Jim Jeffords type cajones, n/t

[ Parent ]
I call bullshit on Bright
He chose the hard path of winning on the Democratic line for reasons he stated (he appreciated the tolerance of diversity in the party). He would have had a much easier time running as a Republican, but CHOSE NOT TO.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Wait until we see a candidate
while this may seem likely R, we won't know until if a prominent D steps up.

So y'all please keep an open mind on this one. Remember the 50 state strategy.

Ya
Murfreesboro I believe is a decent sized city.  I suppose a democratic Mayor of the city could make a credible candidate.
[ Parent ]
It's gone
This and LA-3 are gone.  Long long gone.  

TN-8, OTOH is a different story.

[ Parent ]
Open seats thus far
Here's a rundown so far on open seats for 2010.

Reps (12 open seats) - 4 in danger of flipping
DE-AL (D+7)
FL-12 (R+6)
IL-10 (D+6)
PA-06 (D+4)

Dems (11 open seats) - 7 in danger of flipping

KS-03 (R+3)
LA-03 (R+12)
NH-02 (D+3)
PA-07 (D+3)
TN-06 (R+13)
TN-08 (R+6)
WA-03 (D+0)

Not as bad as many seem to think.  

HI-01
Is a concern in the special.
[ Parent ]
Really?
I thought that idea was sort of debunked in one of the earlier threads. If Case is indeed more likely to draw more votes away from Djou than Hanabusa despite having a 'D' next to his name, then this affair ought to be a non-event.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Until there is evidence of that in polling
It could easily work the other way. All conjecture right now.
[ Parent ]
Maybe
But the only evidence we have to go on so far is Case's past electoral track record, and as Skaje noted, his support in the Democratic primary against Akaka came from crossover Republicans and conservative-leaning independents. Presuming a similar pattern to play out in HI-01, I don't see Hanabusa being in too much danger.

I agree that polling needs to come forth before we can draw any conclusions one way or another about where this election is headed, but until that much substantiates a real race on our hands, it seems to me premature to be fretting the loss of a D+11 district in Obama's very best state.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Mmm . . . Perspective . . .


26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
This one is gone
unlike TN-8.  Expect more of this in the South.  Bart Gordon was one of our more liberal ones down there, and I think he realized how the area was moving, and that his options were voting like a hard core Repub or leaving Congress, and he chose the latter.

Anybody still doubt what I said that we would lose 10-15 House seats in the South in 2010?

No
But you were talking about incumbents losing. This is very different. If people like Skelton run I still think they will win.
[ Parent ]
Missouri isn't part of the south
Not sure why you would lump it in there.
[ Parent ]
It's a border state, at least
It may not have been part of the Confederacy, but it's fairly southern.

There was an old joke that went something like: "If you call your state Missouri (mizz-ur-eee), you're a Midwesterner. If you call your state Missourah, you're a southerner."

And it has a lot of the Appalachia-style poor white voters who are swinging Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky toward Republicans.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
James Carville's line about PA kind of applies here
Missouri=Kansas City and St. Louis with Alabama in between.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Missouri is a border state
and Central and Southern Missouri is culturally Southern.

So I would consider MO-4, MO-7, and MO-8 as Southern districts.  I would consider MO-6 and MO-9 Midwestern.

[ Parent ]
No I was talking 10-15 total
regardless.  Yes I expected incumbents to lose.  Gordon's seat would have been a tossup if he stayed.  Rick Boucher's seat is likely going GOP regardless of him running or not.

But I think it will be closer to 15 because of these retirements.

 

[ Parent ]
No
I don't think many people ever doubted that retirements or not.  Thankfully we only hold 59 seats in for Ex-Confederate states by my count (I may be off 1 or 2).  
[ Parent ]
Here's my count.
Alabama - 3
Arkansas - 3
Florida - 10
Georgia - 6
Louisiana - 1
Mississippi - 3
North Carolina - 8
South Carolina - 2
Tennessee - 5
Texas - 12
Virginia - 6

Total - 59

So you're right.

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Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
Wow
I knew the exact number of democratic reps for an entire region.  Not sure if I'm proud or ashamed...
[ Parent ]
and only around 25 will actually be competitive on the worst of days
Hooray for the voting rights act.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
By my count
There are roughly 21 or so out of 59 southern house seats held by Dems protected by the VRA.  May be higher or lower as I'm not sure the exact number Texas has.  So that leaves only about 38 non-VRA seats held by Dems in the south.
[ Parent ]
258-38 = 220 seats, a bare D majority today, n/t

[ Parent ]
yes
Just saying this isn't like the old day when Dems had upwards of 75 white southern seats to defend.  Even in a disasterous 2010 we lose 15 of those 38 seats mentioned.  I hope we don't lose even that many but it's not out of the question.
[ Parent ]
Gotta throw in a few others
Jim Moran in Virginia
The Jewish districts in Florida
North Carolina is a grab bag

It's not many, but you get my point.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Huh?
The Jewish districts in Florida

Whose are VRA protected?  I thought VRA protected race not religion.

[ Parent ]
I think he means those are safe Dem districts.

[ Parent ]
Of those
these are black, Hispanic, and Democratic metro districts:
AL-7
FL-3
FL-11
FL-17
FL-19
FL-20
FL-22
FL-23
GA-2
GA-4
GA-5
GA-13
MS-2
NC-1
NC-4
NC-12
NC-13
SC-6
TN-5
TN-9
TX-9
TX-15
TX-16
TX-18
TX-20
TX-23
TX-25
TX-27
TX-28
TX-29
TX-30
VA-3
VA-8
VA-11

That is 34 seats that are not really rural Southern.  That leaves only 25 which are truly Southern.  I would add MO-4, WV-1, WV-3, MD-1, KY-6, and OK-2 as culturally and politically Southern.  Thus you get my list of 31 rural Southern/border seats which I predict that the Dems would lose at least 10-15 from.

[ Parent ]
Yes
And if we do hold the losses for those seats to 10-15 I'd say we're looking at 20-25 net losses.  Not TOO bad really.
[ Parent ]
I disagree
I don't think we will lose more than a net 5 seats outside my list of 31.

So my prediction is a net 10-20 seat loss.  Or probably about a 5-10 seat loss of reliable Democrats.

[ Parent ]
Hope you're right
But I can see several seats even in the northeast being trouble.  Both NH seats could be in danger and I think people are starting to take our boatload of NY Dems a bit for granted.  Several of those upstate Dem seats won in 2006-2009 are still republican-leaning  and could flip back the other way in a bad year.
[ Parent ]
I too am worried about those NH/upstate NY seats.
My concern started with Arcuri's closer-than-expected margin last year, as without Bush on the table, that area, along with many in the northeast, might revert to its Republican roots, especially if the GOP somehow dumps the birthers/teabaggers/etc. and reverts to its traditional small-l libertarian roots, and the Dems revert to their populist roots, only without the racism.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
the NY seats are in more trouble
I don't think the NH seats are a real problem- the slow liberal shift is real and those are districts with normal and continuing population growth. I.e. enough young people are joining the electorate and the small tech/manufacturing economy that is growing outwards from Boston while the angry old hardcore Republicans are dying away.  This is sustaining moderation of NH Republicans and keeping partisan shifting at roughly the national rate.  Old New Hampshire was defeated around 2004 and is fading fast.

The New York Appalachian districts (Massa, Arcuri, Owen) are places many of their young people have to leave for nearby cities and the local industries are mostly either state funded/subsidized, seasonal, or on life support.  (Much of Massa's district is a wretched pit, on par with some in Ohio and Pennsylvania.)  National partisan splits are standing still or moving a lot slower there than the national average there.  

[ Parent ]
I see it the other way
In NY, teabaggers are pushing hard to nominate unelectable candidates, and if they are not nominated, then third party candidates run against them.  

I actually think that 5-10 Democrats will be saved by small margins solely due to third party teabaggers.


[ Parent ]
Can you name a NY district other than NY-23
where your assertion

In NY, teabaggers are pushing hard to nominate unelectable candidates, and if they are not nominated, then third party candidates run against them.

is true?

If so, please tell us who and where.

[ Parent ]
NY 19
The GOP grassroots are not happy with the nrcc backed Nan Hayworth.

Ball have have dropped out, put there's plenty of tea baggers there who have a taste for moderate blood, after their cough "success" in NY 23.

If they run against in the general, John Hall can breath a major sigh of relife. BuT I do think a loss or two in Ny is too be expected. Ny (esp upstate) isn't blue enough to hold 26 of 29 seats.

[ Parent ]
Good, that's one. Anyplace else in NY? n/t

[ Parent ]
Ooops sorry
Dems hold 17 ou of 19 seats in new york.

2-3 losses there are pretty much inevitable up state especially if Guiliani runs for senate and give's the gop a star candidate on the top of the ballot

[ Parent ]
Ooops again!
Dems hold 2 out of 29 seats
[ Parent ]
AAArgh!
Other way around!
[ Parent ]
Don't get a health care bill
and you could be right.  Get a health care bill through, and the economy starts recovering, then Obama is still strong in New England and Upstate NY, and I see it very difficult to lose any of these incumbents.  The only one I see possibly losing is NH-2, and that only if Charlie Bass can get through the primary w/o a third party teabagger.

I stand by my prediction, contingent on the economy improving and a health care bill being passed, that the Dems will lose a net 0-5 seats outside my 31 rural Southern/border seats.

[ Parent ]
I still think,
you will be slightly off, but its not like losing 8 or 9 is a good sign either (I assume we are not talking net here). I think we will likely lose more in the South than the other regions of the country combined. As of now, I think we are headed to a 12-20 seat net loss next year, with 6-8 of those being southern seats.  
[ Parent ]
Do you want to bet?
Doesn't have to be money, but I'm willing to offer a bet to any takers that of the 31 seats on my list, we will lose 10-15 of them.  I'm guessing it will be closer to 15.

I will write a diary of my race ranking of my 31 seats very shortly.

[ Parent ]
Jim Tracy
State Senator Jim Tracy had the profile and marketability to have knocked off Congressman Gordon in a head to head race; so one has to assume outside of losing the primary to another high-profile Republican, of which there are several in this district, that he has to be straight-out favorite over any Democrat this district can produce. There are a few Democrats in the district capable of putting up the good fight, but barring unforeseen circumstances its hard to see how any of them could engineer a victorious campaign. Mayor Tommy Bragg of Murfreesboro or State Representative Henry Fincher (Cookville) would probably be the best bets to keep the race competitive; but watch former State Senator Jo Ann Graves (Gallatin) as she has a sufficient profile to be taken seriously and little in the way of political capital to risk.  

Democrat: TN-8
I doubt,
Tracy could have beaten Gordon (there is a reason he had not actually gotten in the race). In an open seat scenario, he should be the favorite in the primary (although I could see that being a bloodbath). Former state Senator Andy Womack would be our best candidate (especially if Tracy is not the nominee) because he would do well in Rutherford (it would be hard for the Democrat to lose if he wins Rutherford) and Bedford counties. Tommy Bragg could be a good candidate, but one name I haven't seen tossed out id state Rep. Kent Coleman. He hs shown an ability to raise money and represents a swing district in Rutherford County.
[ Parent ]
Womack and Coleman
Andy Womack on paper would be a very strong candidate with his name ID and geographic base, but he passed on a pretty solid bet at retaining John Hood's vacated 48th House District in 2008 by citing on-going health concerns/issues. So if he was not up to a much likelier State House run (in a fairly compact district), one has to wonder if he would be up to a very tough campaign at the congressional level.

As for Kent Coleman, he is a great Democratic state representative for Rutherford County, but I am not sure he has the marketability to sell himself throughout the Congressional District.

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
I knew
Andy Womack personally, so I am aware of his health issues. This may be an opportunity he does not want to pass up. When Kent Coleman first ran for the state House, I thought he was a poor campaigner, but he has gotten alot better at it, so I think he would be a good candidate (geography, having won a tough seat before, and fundraising ability are also positives for him).
[ Parent ]
Open CDs are rare, so everyone has to "look" hard at them
I have no doubt Andy Womack wants to look at this race; I was was simply stating the obvious questions concerning whether or not he will end up making the race with the information available.

Having faced increasingly tough races for his seat, Kent Coleman absolutely has the experience in campaigning and fundraising to be taken seriously for the nomination. My concern is his service on the Judiciary Committee, where lots of votes over the years have been made to bottle up legislation, i.e. "guns in bars" legislation was killed in this committee until 2009, and those types of votes could be used against him.  

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
House
I bet we have 10-15 more retirements in the next 2 months or so and possibly lose the house.

29/D/Male/NY-01
I bet no more than 10
And very unlikely to lose the House despite people fretting over health care.
[ Parent ]
There are already 7 Democratic open seats
You are betting no more than 3 more Democratic members of Congress will retire?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
No
No more than ten more in addition.
[ Parent ]
How about you and I make a bet
The Democrats don't lose anymore than 15 seats (net) in the House.

If I had some way of collecting on it, I'd definitely bet you that the Democrats lose no more than 15 seats at $5 per seat under/over that estimate.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I bet you a dollar
that Tekzilla makes at least 10-15 overly dramatic dire predictions before November 2010.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I somehow don't see anyone taking you up that offer.
I know I certainly won't.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
We might lose 15 seats in the South/border alone
I just don't think we'll lose that many net outside that area, however.
[ Parent ]
I don't think so
I'm sure that we'll lose seats in the South, as you've said before, but I suspect that unless there are a lot more retirements, there will only be a loss of 5-10 seats in the south (maximum).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
TN-06: Gordon to Retire | 117 comments

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