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FL-02: Lawson Will Run

by: James L.

Wed Feb 11, 2009 at 7:07 PM EST


State Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson is now making it known that he will indeed challenge Rep. Allen Boyd in the 2010 Democratic primary:

Lawson, an insurance agent who has represented Tallahassee in the Legislature since 1982, said today he intends next year to take on Congressman Allen Boyd, a Democrat from Monticello.

The primary will be bruising, with the nation's economic crisis front and center. [...]

Lawson has come out of the gate swinging, accusing Boyd of forgetting his struggling constituents.

Boyd voted in favor of a $700 billion taxpayer rescue of the nation's troubled financial industry that was first proposed by former President George W. Bush. Boyd joined most Republicans in Congress in voting against a more than $800 billion economic stimulus package being pushed hard by the new administration of President Barack Obama.

Congress is still negotiating a final package.

"He's putting Wall Street ahead of Main Street, and there's something wrong with that," Lawson said. "Most of that district is rural and the people need help."

Before you get too excited, though, let's not forget that Lawson "almost" endorsed Charlie Crist in 2006 -- not exactly the behavior of a progressive firebrand.

(Hat-tip: The Briefing Room)

James L. :: FL-02: Lawson Will Run
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Hey, Great
Even if he loses the primary, and he's being term limited in the Legislature, he can always go back to insurance. I hear that business is still staying steady despite the economic downturn.

Yay.
   Well, Charlie Crist is to the left of Boyd anyway.  It's just nice to have a challenger for God's gift to defense contractors.

24, Male, GA-05

Boyd is too conservative for FL-2
even as a Democrat. This is an ancestrally democratic district like its northern neigbhor in GA-2 held by Sanford Bishop, though it has more white residents.

What is Lawson's record locally? is he considered a good legislator and popular in the district? If so and he is able to position himself as an economicaly moderate yet socially conservative Dem, he may be able to win the general.

The difficulty is holding heavily GOP Bay County, which is the 2nd largest county wholly within the district but which Lawson doesn't currently represent. Sure Obama lost the district but on the local level, it is still pretty Democratic; unlike Jeff Miller's FL-1, which abandoned its democratic roots when Barry Goldwater won it in a landslide (almost enough to take FL from LBJ).  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


Its different than GA-02
GA-02 is almost half black and Obama carried it by a good amount.  FL-02 is only 22% black and has LOTS of Dixiecrats that havent voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter.  

[ Parent ]
You are repeating what I said n/t


Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


[ Parent ]
Bay County voted 70-30
McCain. There's also a lot of rural dixiecrat counties.

Escambria is actually a lot better for Dems than Bay, which is Panama City. Pensacola, Escambria, went for McCain only 59-40.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus


[ Parent ]
What does the statehouse look like?
Can we push Bay County into the 1st, thereby making it even more Repub dominated?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Are you kidding me?
No, Boyd is in fact not too conservative for FL-02.  It's a republican leaning district and unlike the rest of Florida, is trending even more republican.  Boyd is the only Dem who can hold that seat without a tough fight.  Lawson will lose big if he wins the primary and a tough republican steps up to run.

Like Boyd or hate him, he's the best we're getting in FL-02.  He fits the district.


[ Parent ]
Yes he is
Obama lost more republican leaning districts held by Dems more moderate than Boyd by a higher margin (Gordon and Davis in TN; Edwards in TX and Ross in AR to name a few). The previous Dem who held the district was not that conservative, Boyd just seems to want to overcompensate for possible adverse redistricting by postioning himself so much to the right that few Dems notice and other GOPers can't outflank him. His strategy has worked so long as local Dems are ignorant of his policy positions. The guy is even pro-choice and I bet you many pro-life Baptists in the FL Panhandle don't even know that. Now he's got a real challenge and all of a sudden he's on Air Force One with Obama and going to the White House for cocktails.

As per Lawson losing big, why would that happen? I mean, compare the map of his State Senate District to FL-2 and sans Bay County, I can't really tell the difference. He's been in public office since the early 1980s so its not like no-one knows who he is. Finally, if you look up his voting record on project vote smart, he is pretty much another Sanford Bishop and is probably pro-life to boot. If he gets enough funding, he should be fine.

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


[ Parent ]
Redistricting Boyd
It would seem easy for the GOP to redistrict Boyd. His home of Monticello, in Jefferson County, could easily be redistricted into the solidly Republican FL-4 (Anders Crenshaw) or FL-6 (Cliff Stearns). Or split heavily Dem Leon County into FL-4 and FL-1 (Jeff Miller). I could see Stearns making a fuss but Miller? Miller's went for McCain by 35 and Bush by 44 in 04. Take most of Leon out of Boyd's and I dont see how he survives. I wonder why they didnt do all this in this decade's redistricting.

[ Parent ]
Errr.
I meant could see CRENSHAW making a fuss, not Stearns, as he is the one representing FL-4.

[ Parent ]
Lawson
Even if a tough Republican doesnt run in 2010 one may in 2012 if Lawson is the congressman.  

[ Parent ]
it'd be harder to knock off an incumbent then n/t


Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


[ Parent ]
In 2012
That district will likely be made a quite a bit more conservative after redistricting, offsetting any advantage of incumbency.

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure about that
Looking at the district Tallahassee is still growing by a decent amount in numbers in terms of the metro area (with Jefferson county in particular being fast growing) so I don't know that you can say that.  

[ Parent ]
Not much to be excited about here
This is the kind of district that once it opens up, it will be gone for Democrats, unless its a really good Dem year(probably the reason why we held AL-05).  McCain won here 54%-45% after Bush won 54%-46% in 2004.  Outside of the three Tallahassee based counties, this district is deep red and in some places McCain got around 80% of the vote.  

Hell
if Charlie Crist ran against Boyd as a Democrat, I'd probably support him. At least Crist supports the stimulus.

Lawson is not going to be some amazing progressive guy, but he's not going to be a pro-Bad SSP, anti-jobs hardcore Blue Dog either. And that's all I care about, if he puts together a solid campaign and shows that he will run a real race I intend to actively support him.  


Sarah Palin supports the stimulus. That doesn't mean I'd want her in the house or senate.
The stimulus is a terrible barometer.  Palin wants the stimulus passed because she lost Alaska one billion dollars changing the investment strategy to the stock market before the crash.  I'm sure Crist wants it passed so he can balance the budget without making drastic cuts.  (Just like Doyle in Wisconsin)

[ Parent ]
Ha
Yeah, Alaska can keep Palin.

Didn't Bush want to invest our Social Security benefits into the stock market, or was the intention when we control our own accounts.  Holy shit did everyone just dodge a bullet there.  If it weren't for the Democrats being forceful for once, everyone would've been screwed.


[ Parent ]
I'm not sure
He wanted private accounts that I do know but I believe it had to do with thr stock market. From what I read the one Dem that supported this was... you guessed it: Allen Boyd.

[ Parent ]
He did want private accounts
He wanted to give people the option of diverting up to a certain % (half I think) of their social security money into private accounts invested in securities like stocks and bonds.  The entire reason social security exists is because it's a backup plan in case people's pensions and 401K's falter.  

Private social security investment accounts are completely illogical and could potentially cause a surge in deep poverty among the elderly, something social security as we know it has done a fantastic job in preventing.

Back when Bush started pushing for it I believe public support was pretty evenly split on the measure, with young peopel for it and middle aged and elderly opposed.  That was at a time when the market was going up.  I imagine if a poll were done today you'd see 20% tops in favor of it.  Had Bush actually gotten what he wanted with private accounts republicans would probably be far fewer in D.C. today.


[ Parent ]
hey, I like Crist too


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Yeah
but Crist also extended voting hours, achually appeared with the president to promoting the stimulus, signed into law good climate change laws and has done a lot of other half decent stuff.

Having a "D" by his name is about all that makes Boyd any better. I would vote for him in the general election over a Republican any day of the week but that doesn't mean that Boyd is good.  


[ Parent ]
"A lot of half decent stuff"
adds up to less than 50%.  Boyd's PP score is just under 70%.  Either way, I wasn't arguing Boyd was good by any means.  

[ Parent ]
Felon rights
Im generally 'tough on crime' and support tough sentencing laws, but Crist is right when it comes to restoring felons' voting rights. Theyre still citizens. They made mistakes and did their time (or doing their time if it also refers to current inmates). So they should be allowed to vote. Im just libertarian on the matter. I dont particularly feel sorry for them. But I just think every citizen should have the right to vote.  

[ Parent ]
If anything
maybe Boyd will figure out he doesn't have to vote like Gene Taylor to hold this relatively purple district.

Gene Taylor probably
doesn't even have to vote like Gene Taylor anymore. It's hard to imagine him losing.  

[ Parent ]
Be careful what you wish for people
This is a bad primary challenge.  Lawson isn't even much to the left of Boyd and he'd almost certainly lose (probably big) to any credible republican in a general election.  

I just hope the primary doesn't get race-ugly.
We got a very vivid illustration with Cazayoux of what happens when the black vote, or even a sizable fraction of it, walks away from our candidate.  In the case of a bitter primary with Lawson, such voters would more likely be staying home than coming out to vote for any independent candidate, but the effect is the same.

I'm not saying I have any problem with Lawson running, because from what little I know of him I don't, but I do hope the primary stays above-board.  And as people as stand-up as Hillary and Barack have shown us, that's not that easy to do.

Oh well, such is life in a multiracial coalition.  I wouldn't want it any other way.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


[ Parent ]
Same here!
It's VERY boring living in a 95% white/95% Christian area like I'm in now in the northern Arlington/FW suburbs. I want to be around more blacks, Latinos, Asians, Jews, Muslims, and atheists like myself!

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Oh come on
I'm 30 miles North of you in Denton right now (I tell you all, I move a lot between South Houston and Denton). It's not boring. There are plenty of Latinos, that's what got Paula Pierson over the hurdle in 2006 for Arlington. Go to the FW stockyards for a big Latino group if you want some diversity, my best friend lives just north of them in Saginaw.

Besides, Californian Mexican food sucks. Then again, D/FW Mexican food kinda sucks as well, about 200 miles too far north to be good.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
Okay, let me be more specific.
I live in Grapevine, which is almost 90% white and neighbors Colleyville (90% white) and Southlake (95% white).

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Where Im at...
In the SE Houston suburbs theres a sizable number of minorities. Latinos, blacks and asians. Not sure how many agnostics/atheists there are (Im agnostic myself), though. I hope alot and Im sure there is. Which cong. district are you in trowaman & californianintexas? Im in Olson's, although I live like 5 minutes drive from Ron Paul's. The whole Seabrook/Kemah/League City area. Ive actually worked with a few Californian transplants at my job. One is a gay dude from San Diego, another a college aged girl from the coastal area a little north of L.A and another an older lady from the SF Bay Area (whos one of those Great Plains transplants to California, hence why shes pretty conservative unlike many in the SF Bay Area in general).

[ Parent ]
Off topic
Though very off topic there, sorry ;)

[ Parent ]
I'm stuck in Kenny Marchant's district.
And Texas is fine, though I miss California a lot and want to return.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Registered in Olson's
I live permanently in Friendswood but I was going to College in Denton and am up there right now to get Grad school information and will be back in TX-26 (Burgess) next fall if all goes according to plan.

Parents in F-wood, Friends/Girlfriend in Denton. I go between both.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
Wow, Friendswood
I actually went to HS in Friendswood (at Clear Brook HS), though I lived in Clear Lake. Graduated in the early part of this decade. I always thought all of Friendswood was in Ron Paul's. I guess just part of it.  

[ Parent ]
Look at the TX-22 Map
You see that REALLY narrow strip that connects Galveston county to the rest of the district. That is about 2 Friendswood Precincts on the Alvin side. That's me.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Also I got you beat
It goes my house, house behind my house, then Ron Paul's district starts for me.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
District lines
Yeah the district lines are pretty crazy around here. Lots of refinery workers around where I live. Some are in my district and I wonder how they voted in Olson/Lampson. Lots of union members in those refineries. My stepmom's dad, for example, was a proud card carrying pipe fitter's union member but switched to the GOP in around the 80s.

[ Parent ]
Ah, ok then
Yeah, Grapevine/Southlake are pretty lousy. Except for the Southlake Town Square shopping center. I like traveling down there. Good Apple store.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
LOLZ
My dad lives in Keller.  (One suburb west of Grapevine.)  I wouldn't live there for the world.

I grew up in Sugar Land, SW Houston, which had whole flocks of Asians.  My high school was 35% Asian, which meant the smart classes were 70% Asian.  Thems was good times.  I loved that school.

UT-Austin was reasonably diverse, not enough Asians but a lot more Latinos.  

And now San Francisco is pretty diverse, though a lot more segregated by neighborhood than I expected.  The white-collar segment of San Francisco is pretty damn white.  The neighborhood where I live and work (Castro) is almost entirely white.  I'm not real crazy about that.  

Mostly, I miss my Indian-Americans.

Oh, and the Mexican food in California SUCKS.  At least in SF it does.  The Burrito is not the alpha and omega of Mexican food, damnit!

I'm just gonna have to learn to cook it all myself, I guess, because as much as I love Tex-Mex, it's not really worth having to deal with, you know, the rest of Texas.  ;-)  

I lie; Austin is the shit.  

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


[ Parent ]
Though I've never been to NorCal
I think San Fran is not exactly the best place to find Mexican food. I think you're better off trying Asian foods there. In the Southland where I'm from, closer to the border, the Mexican food there is great, especially the Baja-style fish tacos.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Now that's Mexican Food We Can Believe In!
And yes, the sushi here is amazing.  There's like three sushi restaurants per neighborhood.  My neighborhood has seven, actually, and of those three are good!

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
Mexican food in TX
::Homer uhhhhh sound::

I used to live in Fresno, TX which is little east of Missouri City.  TX-22, and then my parents moved to MN-6 where we have Bachmann, come on...

But yeah, I really miss Mexican food, good Mexican food.  Living in MN, well, nothing even comes close.  In fact, I've had Mexican food I've hated here, which is pretty hard since Mexican food is really just a bunch of shit thrown together in a tortilla.  You can't screw it up.


[ Parent ]
And I do like Baja California-style Mexican food.


My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
With Cazayoux
the problem was that the losing Democrat ran as an independent in the general!  Took like 10% and sunk Cazayoux.

The primary is the time to find the best Democrat and afterwards the party must unite.  When Democrats pull stunts like running in the general as a spoiler, they need to be called on it.  For elected officials like Michael Jackson, it's even easier for others to put the pressure on.  He's a state representative, why didn't the Louisiana Democratic Party make it clear to him that if he costs us a congressional seat, the state party wouldn't fundraise for him anymore?  He's still in the state legislature, hasn't lost any committee seats.  Still vice chair of the Democratic caucus, too.

As long as Lawson endorses Boyd (should he lose), or Boyd endorses Lawson (should the primary be successful), and only one Democrat goes to the general, I'm not too worried about holding this seat.


[ Parent ]
LA is f'd
In a real Democratic state, that simply wouldn't fly.  

[ Parent ]
Some local thoughts
On FriedGator.com -- Lawson isn't so liberal either:

http://www.friedgator.com/2009...


Allen Boyd flips his vote to support stimulus
That may have more to do with the Obama visit though.  In any case, the stimulus lost previous supporter Pete DeFazio so that should tell you who thinks this version is better and worse.

Probably
But it needed to change to get the votes in the senate.

[ Parent ]
Actually
I believe we gained a few votes from the last House vote on this bill.

http://projects.washingtonpost...

Only 7 Dems voted against this time.  They are Bright, DeFazio, Griffith, Minnick, PetersonShuler and Gene Taylor.  Childers, Boyd and Marshall voting for it is surprising.


[ Parent ]
RE: Childers and Marshall
They actually voted for it the first time.  

Boyd was a switch.  

The others that needed to switch were Kratovil, Ellsworth, Kanjorski, and Cooper.

No, Childers and Marshall voted for it both times.

Hopefully, that is a good sign.


[ Parent ]
Childers voted for it the first time, too. (eom)


[ Parent ]
Yeah it could tell you something about the bill
But DeFazio was just one progressive that didn't support it. I would care more if him, Kucinich, McDermott, Woolsey, Lee and all the other CPC members all joined in disapproveing the bill. Then I would be concerned more

[ Parent ]
In all honesty
If I were in the House, I would kind of want to not vote for it.  As someone whose incredibly progressive, I'm still a penny pincher and there was plenty of bullshit in there.  Every cent in there should be towards creating jobs.  Although,  I didnt see what got cut out in negotiations so maybe it's a better bill now.  I just wouldnt ever want to say, like most of the Dems in their House floor speeches, this isnt a perfect bill but..., it could use more work but..., etc.  If your speech in favor of the bill involves speaking poorly about the bill, then there is something wrong there.

I still wouldve voted for it in the end, a not perfect bill is better than no bill.  I wouldve just wanted to work a bit more on it.  Like I think the stimulus shouldve been tax cuts/welfare to get money in peoples hands and then infrastructure projects, with that being pretty much it.

And 2.5 trillion for the banks, DEAR GOD!  That shit better be looked at CLOSELY by Congress and take a lot longer than 5 days to get passed or what have you.


[ Parent ]
Why should it all be for creating jobs?
Every bill in Congress stuffs things that aren't necessarily for the purpose the bill is intended.  The stimulus bill was the perfect opportunity to squeeze in many items that promote progressive ideals, like money for ACORN, environmental initiatives, and expanding the size and scope of government in general.  I believe there was even some funding to train doctors in nurses in preparation for universal healthcare.  

Democrats were given a mandate to promote these ideas and that's exactly what they did.  This bill is a homerun on all fronts.


[ Parent ]
So I just read
Lawson is African-American.  (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/2/11/194755/424/286/696377)

That seems to bode well for him in a primary if the district has a large AA population (anyone able to look that up?)  But at the same time, in the general, with this being the Florida panhandle, not be a plus for us.  DK reports that the district underperformed for Obama compared to Kerry/Gore.  Not good.

I'm supporting Boyd.  That way we keep the seat.  Why chance it.  Although primarying him to scare him is pretty nice vote wise.


Same here
Hopefully this turns out to be a primary challenge that goes nowhere but moves Boyd to the left.  Lawson may actually win the primary given the large number of blacks who vote in the Democratic primary in that district, but he's not very electable in a general.  Even if he slides by in 2010 he'd probably lose out in 2012 after redistricting.

[ Parent ]

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