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PA-Sen: Schwartz Won't Challenge Specter

by: James L.

Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 9:29 PM EDT


Not that it's a surprise, but we can now officially cross off Democratic Rep. Allyson Schwartz from the open seat watch:

Aides to Rep. Allyson Schwartz say the third-term Pennsylvania Democrat will not seek her party's nomination for the U.S. Senate in 2010.

Schwartz was among those widely talked about as a possible candidate, and had considered a Senate run. But after Arlen Specter's party switch, Schwartz plans to support him and will focus on having a larger role in health-care policy in the House of Representatives.

Meanwhile, the Pennsylvania GOP, apparently unhappy-to-fearful with the idea of a Toomey general election candidacy and the havoc that it might wreak downballot, is searching fiercely for an alternative. The Hill mentions ex-Gov. Tom Ridge and current Reps. Jim Gerlach, Charlie Dent and Tim Murphy as possibilities. I'm not sure if any of those guys (particularly Ridge, who isn't exactly a popular figure within the GOP's base himself) would be interested in that kind of fight, but who the hell knows anymore.
James L. :: PA-Sen: Schwartz Won't Challenge Specter
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PA-Sen: Schwartz Won't Challenge Specter | 48 comments
Hah
Ridge and Gerlach would never win a PA GOP primary against Toomey.  The party has moved far right since Ridge was Governor.  His social stances would make him unelectable.
Haha
yeah Toomey vs. Gerlach, guess how that primary would go.

Sestak seems to be our best shot, but what everyone is probably going to do is just take a few months to see how Specter handles himself.  If he jumps on board with most of our agenda, then Specter will likely remove any doubts about his sincerity the way that Jim Jeffords did in Vermont some years ago.  If Specter tries to have his cake and eat it too, well then people might start talking about a primary again.

I am pretty sure we're going to see a new side of Specter, most party-switchers of recent times have made adjustments to fit in with their new parties.  Considering the concessions we are making towards him (clearing the field of establishment candidates, honoring his seniority, etc.) when we could have just as easily waited for him to get beat by Toomey, I am certain some deals were made in exchange for his support on legislation as well.

yup
they worked hard on this. I'm surprised at how far and deep the conspiracy to get him to switch went and how long it lasted. He must have really been pro-stimulus behind the scenes nad him at odds with his party gave Democrats the idea.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Looks like I'm still going to get my shot
to vote for Toomey in the primary.
[ Parent ]
Well...
Considering that Specter acknowledged that he was switching parties mainly for electoral reason, I'm not sure why we should trust him if he spends 5 months voting as a reliable Dem. After all, Jeffords switched parties a few months after being elected - not a few months before!

The point I'm making is that there's no way to know what Specter really intends to do until 2011 - so it's now or never for Democrats who intend to challenge him.  

Also, Campaign Diaries argues that Democrats are making a mistake by embracing Specter so enthusiastically:

Welcoming Specter with open arms could be a long-term mistake for the party, as it could mean living with the unreliable Specter instead of a more mainstream Democrat for the next seven years; at the very least, Democrats are making a grave short-term mistake by putting no pressure on Specter to integrate the Democratic mainstream and treating him as if he is terrifyingly powerful when he has never been so politically weak.

[ Parent ]
yes but letting Specter in with open
arms welcomes in a wide coalition and shows we are now the national party of multiple groups, unlike republicans tried to paints Democrats in just 2004. Now the tables have turned. This is a huge win in the press and eyes of the voters, moderates especially. gotta think like a political strategist man.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
David Brooks had a pretty good take on it
on the NYT blog; the broad message is that the Democrats are still the winning team.
[ Parent ]
I thought Markos (not for the first time) made a lot of sense
[ Parent ]
"Putting no pressure on Specter"
And he knows this how? Time will tell.
[ Parent ]
Actually, it looks like the Democrats
are playing this for political gain as well, heartily welcoming Specter as a giant "fuck you" to the Republican Party.

Not that I mind, of course. :P

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Tim Murphy isn't exactly
moderate and he's had his share of scandals. Plus it'd be impossible for them to win, Specter is going to wrack up like 65% margins in the burbs, he's even got hte moderate to conservative independants and Republicans that didn't vote for Obama.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
Paging Alan Keyes. Please pickup the PA GOP hotline.
I think he is still available to sign up for a Senate candidate!
Nooooooo!
I want no divide in the right-wing nutjob vote.  Toomey needs those votes in the primary.  Hopefully someone like Gerlach or Dent who represents a swing seat will foolishly ditch their house seat to run against Toomey.  That way we also get a house seat out of the deal.
[ Parent ]
Not Dent
Toomey represented PA-15 immediately before Dent.  It will be somebody outside the Lehigh Valley.  Gerlach is their best candidate from the Philly burbs.  He's probably too liberal and does not have Specter's war chest.  Otoh, the oddds are 50/50 that he'll lose his House seat so what is the risk.
[ Parent ]
Gerlach actually
has some solid conservative credentials.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I think he has a sub-10 prog punch score.
like 6.28 or something.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
8.72
http://progressivepunch.org/me...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I have a hard time calling his house seat 50/50
Every year seems like the year we're finally going to defeat him and every year we lose another 51-49 heartbreaker.
[ Parent ]
With Specter heading the Dem ticket
Gerlach is probably finished, and he knows it.  I expect Gerlach to run for Governor or the Senate, probably Governor.
[ Parent ]
That assumes Specter endorses the Democratic candidate
We need to wait and see what he acts like. If he doesn't shift into the Democratic mainstream and feels under no pressure, then it's possible he might endorse a few Republicans for the general. I think he'll happily support the more vulnerable Democratic incumbents, but unless Gerlach gets vituperative he might have to be pushed to support the challenger there.
[ Parent ]
He's part of the machine now
I find it highly unlikely he endorses a REPUBLICAN candidate. He might just stay out of the race entirely, but if he does, him on the ticket still helps.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
NOT having him as a Republican helps down ballot
It's not so much having him on our ticket that helps, it's that he won't be on a different ticket.

Pennsylvania has "big button" voting where you can push a button to vote for a party's entire slate in the general.  

In 2004, the Dems downballot took a huge hit as several hundred thousand people in the Philadelphia area (including a large number of black Philadelphians) voted for Kerry and then Specter rather than just push the button.  This probably cost the AG's race which Jim Eisenhower lost by less than one percent.  

Having Specter on the same ticket with Onorato (or whomever the gubernatorial nominee is) will mean taht many of these voters will go back to being big button voters.  

Remember, the last time a Republican other than Specter won a statewide race at the top of the ticket in a federal year was Rick Santorum.  And he "only" lost by 18 points on the reelect.  

We may still elect a Republican (Corbett is pretty reasonable and Specter would have cruised to reelect had he avoided being primaried) but we won't elect another wingnut.  Thank you, thank you for Pat "Santorum" Toomey.

[ Parent ]
You assume he's part of the machine
I assume he's protected by the machine, but it's too early to tell whether he joins it or acts more like Lieberman and bucks the party when he likes a Republican candidate. That's not to say I think it's likely - I freely admit I have no idea what relations between Specter and Gerlach are like, nor what sort of Democrat Specter will turn out to be - but it is to say that it's too early to rule it out.

Either way not having him on the Republican ticket probably hurts the likes of Gerlach, but the degree to which he helps is liable to be closely linked to how partisan he becomes.

[ Parent ]
Gerlach refused to endorse Specter
in the Repub primary this year.  So I'm not sure Specter cares to protect him.
[ Parent ]
Ooh.
Someone made a mistake.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I missed that
Given that Specter bears his grudges for the long-term, I'd say Specter endorsing Gerlach isn't something we'll have to worry about for 2010.
[ Parent ]
Being part of the "machine"
and your voting record don't go hand in hand. If Gerlach wants to be the GOP nominee for anything, he's going to have to get behind Toomey. He's not safe in his district, he can't go maverick and alienate his base. If he runs for Governor, he's going to have to get behind Toomey. And if he retires, then whatever Republican runs in PA-06 is going to be behind Toomey.

As for Specter, I hardly think he's going to endorse someone who endorses his Republican opponent. The worst case scenario is that he doesn't endorse anyone and in that case, Specter STILL helps the Democratic nominee because Specter is the Democratic Senate nominee in a Democratic district in a district he would've been strong in as a Republican.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Well
Lois Murphy raised lots of money, and befitted from a lot of DCCC spending, but from what I've heard she just didn't run as good campaigns as he did.  Plus she had a demographic problem in that her base was in the already favorable part of the district, Gerlach ran up the margins in the other counties.

So we figured the seat was lost, but then some nobody held him to 52% last year.  It's obvious Gerlach is going to get swept out one of these days just the way the Connecticut Republicans did after hanging on through some tough races.

In all likelihood, he probably runs for governor, and we easily pick up his seat.

[ Parent ]
I guess I'll get my chance
I'm still going to switch parties, vote and if needed volunteer for Toomey in the primary, as I did in 2004.

I really really want Toomey to be the Repub nominee.

you do that
it doesn't matter as much now so it don't bother me as much.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
It matters big time
for the race for Governor.  Toomey as the Senate candidate will sink the Repub Governor candidate.

And there may even be an outside chance of picking up several Congressional and state Senate seats if Toomey heads the ticket.

[ Parent ]
Exactly what I was saying on another thread
Toomey as a Senate candidate should help Dems up and down the ballot.
[ Parent ]
I'll bet you won't need to
Once people like Gerlach see the polls they probably won't risk a run at Toomey.
[ Parent ]
Gerlach won't beat Toomey
Ridge, though, might have a shot.
[ Parent ]
He'll have a lot of explaining to do
On abortion.  The party looked the other way on that issue when he was Governor, but I doubt they will nowadays.
[ Parent ]
Ridge is too busy...
Making money hand over fist here in DC. I don't envision him going back into public service.  
[ Parent ]
Easy to Look the Other Way for a Gov
Governors generally don't get much say in abortion law (though then again, a PA Governor has his name on the biggest change in abortion law since Roe). Senators, though, they get to vote on confirmation. I imagine the PA GOP, as conservative as it now is, would not like its Senator voting to confirm Obama's judges.
[ Parent ]
random, but yours
truly was one of the Specter diaries linked on the front page wrap up of Dkos. I'm always happy to get some recognition lol.

Hey James need a commentator for southern politics? lol.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

They should give up.
   No one can beat Toomey in a Republican primary.  They are stuck with him.  Why should they risk pissing off the base even more by recruiting challenger?

24, Male, GA-05
Don't forget Bill Kortz

state Rep. Bill Kortz of Dravosburg said he hasn't decided but is leaning toward running.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/...

He's from the Pittsburgh area.

Of course, how could we forget?
Wait, who is he again?
[ Parent ]
what about sestak for guv?
beating specter in a primary, while possible, is unlikely barring conservative GOP obstruction (by specter) at a major level.  it looks like no serious candidates have stepped up for the uber-important gov's seat.  how about sestak?

I posted this on the a more recent rundown but i thought some PA experts might be on this thread.

Onorato
I've been told by friends in Pennsylvania that Dan Onorato, the Alleghney County Executive, is the likely Democratic nominee and that he plans on picking a Eastern PA running mate.

Either from the Poconos area, or the Philly suburbs if Gerlach decides to run.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
He shouldn't need that much help
in the Philly suburbs.  Specter and Rendell should be able to take care of that area for him, even if Gerlach is the opponent.

But I don't think the Repub can win the Governor's race with Toomey as the senate nominee.  The Repubs know this, which is why they don't want him as the nominee, but that is only going to piss wingnuts off anymore.

[ Parent ]
Great!
If it pisses off the wingnuts, it's probably a good idea!

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
a county executive for Governor?
that seems like quite a stretch.  i'm afraid that county experience is pretty obscure.
The importance of experience is greatly exaggerated
Like who in their right mind would elect someone with just four years in the senate their president?
[ Parent ]
it's a pretty big county.
[ Parent ]
PA-Sen: Schwartz Won't Challenge Specter | 48 comments

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