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SSP Daily Digest: 4/22

by: Crisitunity

Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 1:54 PM EDT


PA-Sen: The founder of the PA chapter of the Club for Growth has called on Pat Toomey to drop out (!), saying that he's too conservative for Pennsylvania. (No shit.) The Toomey camp fired back with some mostly non-responsive B.S. (D)

CA-Gov: San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom made the official leap from exploring the California governor's race to being an officially announced candidate yesterday. He joins Lt. Gov. John Garamendi as the only formal candidates in the race, although Garamendi's campaign is on hold while he pursues the CA-10 special election.

CA-Sen: The California GOP has lined up a "strong second choice" to challenge Barbara Boxer if ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina doesn't get in the race. African-American talk radio host Larry Elder, who was on Los Angeles's KABC for 15 years, is meeting with GOP officials, but still sidelined while waiting for Fiorina. (The pro-choice, pro-pot legalization Elder is very much from the libertarian wing of the party.) Assemblyman Chuck Devore is already officially a candidate, but the party seems unenthused about his odds.

NC-Sen, NC-07: Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre says that his re-election to the House is his current "concentration", but when asked if he's considering a Senate bid, McIntyre told a local ABC affiliate that "you never say never to anything." A recent PPP poll had McIntyre trailing Richard Burr by only five points. (J)

TN-09: Rep. Steve Cohen, as a white Jewish man representing a mostly African-American district, is going to always be vulnerable to primary challenges (as seen with last year's mudfest with Nikki Tinker). It looks like he'll be facing a serious test this year, as Memphis mayor Willie Herenton has formed an exploratory committee for the House race. Herenton is African-American and has been mayor since 1991, elected five times. On the other hand, there may be some Herenton fatigue going on in this district, as he is under federal investigation, was re-elected most recently with less than 50% of the vote, and announced his resignation in 2008 only to withdraw it shortly after.

NY-20: You know it's over for Jim Tedisco when major Republicans are telling him to pack it in. Yesterday, ex-Rep. Tom Davis said it was over, and today, state senator Betty Little (who lost the special election nomination to Tedisco) and Dan Isaacs (who's running for state GOP chair) also called for the pulling of the plug. Isaacs is so upset that he's reduced to making up new words: "Tedisco appears not able to pull out a victory in an overwhelmingly Republican district; to me that's the final indignancy."

MI-02: Roll Call takes a quick look at the race to replace retiring Rep. Pete Hoekstra. On the GOP side, former state rep. Bill Huizenga is the "biggest voice that's out there," but state senator Wayne Kuipers is poised to get in, as is former NFL player Jay Riemersma, who's well connected with the Christian right. (Notice a common thread in those names? This is the nation's most heavily Dutch-American district.) There are three Democratic state reps in the district, too, but none of them seem to be making a move yet.

Michigan: An interesting white paper obtained from the Michigan GOP shows that they're quite pessimistic about getting back into power in 2010, despite the advantages they seem to be taking into next year's governor's race. Their suburban base has eroded since the 1990s, and their one-note message just isn't resonating with swing voters anymore.

NRSC: Continuing our theme of unusually reality-based Republicans today, NRSC John Cornyn is sounding an increasingly cautious note about senate prospects in 2010, telling the Hill that it's "going to be real hard" to keep the Democrats from breaking 60 seats in 2010.

NH-St. Sen.: Ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley, who lost twice to Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, has begun a new, more low-key chapter in his career, as a state senator. He easily won a special election, 61-39, over retired judge Bud Martin, to retain a GOP-held open seat. Dems continue to hold a 14-10 edge in the chamber.

John Sununu Sr. (the state GOP chair) didn't seem interested in spinning the victory as indication of a new GOP trend in New Hampshire, though. Always a charmer, Sununu's thoughts instead were:

He said Bradley's election actually helps [Gov. John] Lynch. Bradley could be counted on to sustain a Lynch veto of the gay marriage and transgender discrimination legislation, "if he (Lynch) finds the strength to veto that garbage," Sununu said.
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/22
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Larry Elder
I've read some of his opinion columns. He's an idiot.

lol
Ya, he does not sound like a 2nd tier candidate.  3rd tier at best.

[ Parent ]
NC-07
Do we have any kind of a bench in NC-07 in order to hold McIntyre's seat? Looking at McIntyre's voting record it sure would be hard for Burr to paint him as some left wing loon.  In fact didn't Burr end up voting for CAFTA, his goofy run on banks strategy and other misdeeds.  The problem with McIntyre is that he wouldn't exactly excite the blogs which was the same problem with Heath Shuler although I think McIntyre would be more prepared for a rigorous campaign from a message standpoint.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

McIntyre would dominate
in eastern NC, but the only probablem is he'd he about equate with Ben Nelson in conservativeness. Oh well. I doubt he will run if Cooper doesn't, and Cooper is stronger both in the general, and as a moderately progressive Dem who's a good fit for the state. But if Cooper doesn't run I expect McIntyre to jump in and mount an extremely strong campaign he's likely to win.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
How do you tell if a name is Dutch?
Apparently Hoekstra, Huizenga, Kuipers, and Riemersma are Dutch names. I never would have known that. This is a serious question, and I mean no disrespect. How do you tell if a name is Dutch, if it doesn't start with Van?

Well Hoekstra was born in the Netherlands
so that helps.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Same as porn
You know it when you see it.

[ Parent ]
Good question
Seems like many Dutch names have "oe"s or "sma"s in them. This seems like a good question for Ask MetaFilter.

[ Parent ]
My question would be
how Dutch-Americans turned out to be one of the most reliably conservative ancestries in the U.S., when the Netherlands itself is such a forward-looking and permissive country these days? (My guess would be the role of the Dutch Reformed Church in America, but I dunno.) (Also, if I don't bring up the counterexample, no doubt someone else will: the nation's two most famous Dutch-Americans, Teddy Roosevelt and Franklin Roosevelt, are two of our most important progressives.)

[ Parent ]
Ever heard of the South African Boers?
Nuff said.

[ Parent ]
That wasn't necessary.


[ Parent ]
What are you talking about?


[ Parent ]
My Grandmother was a Liberal Dutch American
From Western Michigan no less.  She was active in politics, serving on the board of the local community college and running unsuccessfully for state legislature on the Democratic ticket.

[ Parent ]
because they live in Western Michigan
The rural Midwest is (mostly) conservative. Most people in this country who identify by some ethnic ancestry live in a more liberal part of the country.

[ Parent ]
Michigan
I'm glad the GOP is not feeling good about there chances.  We have a big opportunity to seize complete control of redistricting.  The state house is now solidly democratic.  We need to hold the Governorship and pickup 3 state Senate seats.  Very good chance of that considering every state Senate seat is up in 2010 and I believe a lot of republicans in merginal seats are term-limited.

Speaking specifically of the Second Congressional district,
There are 3 House members who live here, compared to 3 or 4 Republican House members.  The Democrats are Doug Bennett, who represents the heavily Democratic city of Muskegon and who is term limited in 2010, so he may run for Congress.  

Then there is Mary Valentine, who represents The remaining portion of Muskegon County that is not the City of Muskegon.  Her district was really Republican up until about 2006, when she easily defeated Republican incumbent David Farhat by a 56-44 margin (Farhat was the only incumbent to lose re-election in 2006 and 2008).  In 2008 she beat top Republican Recruit and mega fundraiser Holly Hughes, while Barack Obama won her district something like 55-44.  She's my top pic to run for the 34th Senate district whichi includes Muskegon County and some surrounding rural counties.  Barack Obama won it by like 59-40 and it has a PVI of approximately D+5.5.  The Republicans have no bench from Muskegon, the base there, and If Valentine runs I think she wins.

The third Democrat is Dan Scripps, who is a really impressive young Freshman who won a perrenially close district in 2008 by a 60-40 Margin.  The seat was previously held by a Republican whom Scripps almost defeated in 2006.  He (Scripps) may be more interested in building up seniority first, but it's worth noting that he lives in the 35th Senate District, which is being vacated by Michigan's own Michelle Bachmann, Michelle McManus.  (McManus is running for Secretary of State, and she seriously needs to be defeated.) Anyway, Barack Obama narrowly won this Senate District like 50-49 and Scripps would be a formidable candidate.

To your larger point that we stand a good chance of taking back the state senate, you're absolutely right.  The 20th District, which is held by a Republican and is Kalamazoo County, has a PVI of D+5.7 and will be vacant, the 20th, which is mostly the city of Grand Rapids, has a PVI of approx. D+6. The 32nd, held by Roger Kahn has a PVI of D+4.1 and includes the city of Saginaw (Kahn only holds the seat because he won it in a lowturnout special election a few years ago).  The 7th, whichi is suburban Wayne County is D+1.8 and will be vacant.  The 13th, in Oakland County held by John Pappageorge (frequent foe to all peoples named "Levin" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J... will be competitive.  It has a PVI of D+0.8.  

I plan to do a diary soon handicapping the senate races including recruits, presedential results, and a lot of in depth analysis.

"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)


[ Parent ]
sorry, bad link
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J...

"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)

[ Parent ]
Any idea
What is the tiebreaker for votes should we pickup only 2 seats  and the State Senate ends up tied?  Is the Lt. Gov the tiebreaker?

[ Parent ]
I don't know for sure, but I assume
the Lt. Governor, because he is the President of the senate.  Interestingly, the Lt. Governor seems to actually Preside over the senate at all times, Like he's in the chair all the time.  He probably has a replacement, but whenever the st. sen. is on TV cherry is always presiding.  In the U.S. senate it's mostly a formality for the VP to be "president of the senate," so I thought that was strange.

"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)

[ Parent ]
Also
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/Co...

This link has the results from the 2006 MI State Senate races.  Republicans held on to win by less than 5 points in 5 districts and by less than 10 points in 9 districts.  

Democrats only won by less than 10 points in one district, that being the 6th district that was our only pickup in 2006.

Quite a few of those republicans who won by <10 points in 2006 are term-limited in 2010.


[ Parent ]
6 to be exact
There are six republican-held state senate seats won by <10 points in 2006 that will be open seats in 2010.  Definately bodes well.

[ Parent ]
In MI-13 and MI-32
the Democrat only lost because of a Green Party candidate.  The Dem lost by less than 1%, while the Green candidate got 2-3%.

[ Parent ]
Is the 34th
currently held by a Republican?

So our chances are great. Do you see us picking up a minimum of 4 or 5 seats if Democrats play their cards right?

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus


[ Parent ]
Sorry I didn't mention it.
Yes, the 34th is held by moderate Republican Gerald VanWoerkom (another Dutch name), who came very close to losing in 2006 to former state rep. Julie Dennis.  He is term limited in 2010.  Prior to serving in the State Senate he represented Mary Valentine's house district.  

To your other question, I have no doubt that Democrats could pick up 4-5 seats or maybe more.  But it hinges a lot on recruitment.  Last cycle, recruitment was not as good as it could have been.  Too many state reps who could have won did not want to sacrifice their house seats to run for the senate.  For example, the 36th district is a mass of sparsely populated rural counties in the North-East lower Peninsula.  It's gerrymandered to favor a Republican from the City of Midland over a Democrat from the city of Alpena, which is a strongly and historically democratic area.  In 2002, Alpena state rep. Andy Neumann ran against Midland rep. Tony Stamas, and Stamas won.  Stamas is term limited in 2010, and if Democrats can convince term-limited Rep. Joel Sheltrown, who lives near Midland, to run this seat becomes a tossup.

The same could be said for Rep. Marc Courriveau in the 7th, former Rep. Michael Sak in the 29th, Rep. Gary McDowell in the 37th, Rep. Marie Donigan in the 17th, and many more.

"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)


[ Parent ]
will Democrats ever have a good shot at
Hoekstra's district?

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Even though his long record
Has shown how spineless he is, I hope folks here who thought Lynch was our best (or even only) hope to win NH-Sen realize what kind of man he is when he vetoes same-sex marriage - if a bill ever reaches his desk, which it may not now.

Oh I think he was always the best in terms of being able to win
But I agree New Hampshire Dems can and have done better. And Paul Hodes can and will win. If he starts raising real money.

[ Parent ]
he's still in a 2002 New Hampshire/1990s
New Hampshire mindset. That said New Hampshire still likes fairly moderate liberals, its not Vermont yet.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure it'll ever get as liberal as Vermont
They still seem to like fiscal moderates in NH.

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure a spineless lump like Lynch
Would indeed have been the best bet purely on "electability."

[ Parent ]
Man
do I really want to see Sununu's son run for something next year and get humiliated again.  The elder one is a real piece of work.

Yikes
Hate to pick on looks, but after seeing Sununu's old man for the first time he makes Bill Gates look cool in comparison.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J...


[ Parent ]
Maloney starting to staff up for senate race
Yeah good luck with that


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
I see the Gillibrand flacks are out in full force
The same people who said there was no way, no way, anyone would challenge Gillibrand in the primary, are now saying there's no way she'll lose.  Despite the fact that she'd die for Michael Bennet's poll numbers.  We shall see.

[ Parent ]
I don't see Michael Bennet winning by twenty points
And nobody has announced yet. If anybody actually does then more fool them. I remain unconvinced.  

[ Parent ]
Yes, we are


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Well
Guess she wants her career to end in a whimper.  I'd give Gillibrand a 85% or so chance of beating her in a primary.

[ Parent ]
My primary concern with Gillibrand
was that we would lose her House seat.  That shockingly didn't happen.  Gillibrand has moved to the left on basically every issue.  There is zero reason for a primary now.

I really hope that the Democratic establishment both in NY and in DC clear this field in NY and prevent a primary.


[ Parent ]
Same here
There was a lot of griping on the left in that Gillibrand had been a moderate in the house.  It was plainly obvious that the only reason for that was her swing/moderate republican district she represented.  Of course she was going to immediately start voting like a liberal once she had a more liberal constituency.  

My concern was also keeping NY-20.  We held it and got a good Senator, so it all worked out.  I just don't see what Maloney has to run on.  


[ Parent ]
If that was the only reason
Then she'd be unscrupulous and worth voting against because she has no beliefs of her own.

"Of course she was going to immediately start voting like a liberal once she had a more liberal constituency."

Sounds like Norm Coleman in reverse.  That's no way to act.

If she has no core beliefs and bases her votes only what is going to get her elected, get rid of her and find someone with convictions.

I don't believe this is the case though.  It's actually pretty insulting to her to suggest that.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...


[ Parent ]
Oh please...
Nearly all politicians do it.  They adapt their positions to fit their constituency and get re-elected.  It's happened since the beginning of time.

[ Parent ]
I take it you didn't vote for President last year
since all the major Democratic candidates ran campaigns that sometimes were contrary to their voting records.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Exactly
This is all a matter of perspective.  I happen to think that representatives are elected to serve their constituency, not impose their own views.  I see no problem whatsoever with Gillibrand keeping a moderate voting record while serving NY-20 and adapting to a more liberal statewide constituency.


[ Parent ]
I like Maloney in the house
I think she should stay there.  Hopefully Nancy Pelosi, who she has a good relationship with, can convince her to stay.

"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)

[ Parent ]
She could want to retire anyway
and is just deciding to keep her options open.

Or this could be nothing...or she's looking at some other statewide race, maybe she's going to make a quixotic run for Governor or something.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
If Cuomo really is serious about not running for Gov
A run for Gov may not be so quixotic for her.  But I really think he will run in the end.

[ Parent ]
Maloney got blasted a few weeks ago
because she received $1,000 from Bernie Madoff in political donations. She was forced to defend herself against allegations of quid pro quo. It was sort of disingenious the way the media was attacking her (and ironically not Schumer, who had received more money). I mean, really, is she really going to jeopardize her political career, not to mention her freedom, for a measley $1000?


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
It's very stupid
A $1,000 donation in New York is chump change.  Even $10,000 is considered little by Y election standards.  I doubt she would have even known Madoff donated thta amount to her it's so little, much less had some sort of quid pro quo.

[ Parent ]
she didn't know and she gave the money back
but the news story ended with a "She claims she didn't know and did nothing wrong, but you know politicians" type of ending.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Sounds like the media seem kinda bored.
They might want to check out a few more national headlines.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

[ Parent ]
This is a waste of 30 million dollars
that could go to elect Dems to the Senate in Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, etc.

[ Parent ]
Breaking News from NY-20
Murphy continues to pull away from Tedisco as more votes were counted today.  He now leads by 365.

Herenton vs. Cohen-excuse me while I vomit.
I live in east Arkansas and have to listen to all the shit that pours out from and about Willie Herenton to the point that I pray everyday the man goes on vacation and gets lost in the Bermuda Triangle.  Cohen is a great congressman and Herenton is a corrupt, egotistical, asshole.  Anyone who'd vote for Willie Herenton doesn't deserve a great representative like Cohen.

Check out Blue Arkansas:
http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/


What's his maximum vote share before we lose faith in humanity?
It was 20% for Nikki Tinker, and she got 19% thankfully.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

[ Parent ]
didn't Herenton resign as Mayor
and then change his mind. he's a piece of work from what I've heard.

I don't think this would be much of a contest as Herenton didn't even get 50% of the vote in his last election.

i think Cohen would get 65-70 percent of the vote here also.  


[ Parent ]
Cohen should win
A competent, honest African-American Democrat would probably beat Cohen in a primary.  Willie Herenton is neither competent nor honest.

Also remember that Tennessee has open primaries.  Republicans in the 9th might cross over and vote for Cohen because they dislike Herenton that much, though with it looking like there will be a contested Republican primary for governor, that might not be the case.


[ Parent ]
That's true.
And he got a majority of the African American vote at the same time.

Check out Blue Arkansas:
http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/


[ Parent ]
I hope Obama comes out for Cohen
if this guy runs against him.

[ Parent ]

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