Rep. John Tanner (D-TN), a leading Blue Dog Dem, will retire at the end of his current term, Dem sources tell Hotline OnCall.
Tanner has begun informing key House Dems of his decision — one that will make his seat a prime pickup opportunity for GOPers. He has served 11 terms in Congress representing northwest TN, a district based around Jackson, Clarksville and Union City. […]
Tanner was almost certain to have a tough election. GOPers are thrilled with the prospects of Stephen Fincher (R), a farmer and gospel singer who raised more than $300K in his first several weeks campaigning. Though Tanner has nearly $1.4M in the bank, he may not have wanted to deal with what would have been his first tough race in years.
At a PVI of R+6, Tanner’s 8th District isn’t the toughest of Tennessee’s Blue Dog bastions, but it will be a challenging hold nonetheless. Obama lost the district by a 43-56 margin in 2008, down from Kerry’s 47-53 loss in 2004 and Al Gore’s 51-48 edge at the start of the decade. For stats fans, that means that this district saw the 9th-worst district decline from Kerry to Obama, and the 12th-worst district drop from 2000 to 2008.
Presumably, Democrats will have a healthy bench down the ticket here, but it remains to be seen whether or not a candidate with solid campaign skills will take the plunge.
UPDATE: Here’s one downballot name who represents part of this district: Democratic state Sen. Roy Herron. Herron is currently running for Governor in a crowded Democratic field, but perhaps he’d be interested in a switch. There are also quite a few more Democratic state Senators and Representatives whose districts overlap with the 8th CD.
LATER UPDATE: Looks like Herron is operating on the same brainwave. From the Associated Press:
Democratic state Sen. Roy Herron tells The Associated Press he is dropping his gubernatorial bid to instead seek the northwest Tennessee congressional seat being vacated by Rep. John Tanner.
Herron, a Dresden attorney, said in a phone interview Tuesday night that representing the 8th Congressional District has long been a goal of his.
Well, that’s one hole filled — and by a pretty credible candidate, to boot. This will be a race well worth watching. (Hat-tip: TNDem)
RaceTracker Wiki: TN-08
Other thoughts about Tanner redacted.
The House will likely be lost.
So far we are still in very good shape on the retirement front. Still just 5 dangerious opne seats right now. As long as the floodgates don’t open we’re in good shape.
KS-03
TN-08
LA-03
NH-02
PA-07
I’m not a huge fan of John Tanner’s record, but he was nowhere near the worst of the Blue Dog.
Nevertheless, of the three Tennessee seats, this one is the least difficult to hold. Much like Arkansas districts 1 and 4, this is a district that votes much more Dem at the local and state level (I’m pretty sure Harold Ford carried it.). So much so that even a strong shift to the GOP in the rural South in 2010 will be unlikely to swing this area.
My concern is that we will get a Democratic nominee that is much more conservative than Tanner, and much more conservative than needs to be.
Given the trend toward the GOP in the South, I would put this race as a Tossup.
Question? Does Kim McMillan live in this district, if so maybe she can shift to this race from Governor.
There is a very high liklihood tht republicans are going to control the remap of Tennessee in 2012. Is it possible that Tanner’s district could be screwed with in 2012 to make life nearly impossible for him? Maybe that played into his thinking.
Is it dead yet? State House lost in 2008 (sorta, yes, no, there are more Rs than Ds and they won a special, yes), 1 of three states Obama performed worse than Kerry in, Dems preparing to lose their only statewide office of Governor with no real bench, and 3 of 5 US House seats held by democrats went for Grampa McCain by big margins with this one now left open.
For kicks one of the two seats Obama did win has a democratic congressman who is kinda worthless.
So, future of TN Democrats, what is it?
And how long until Arkansas catches up?
Family members? Ya, nepotism isn’t always great but Tanner is well-respected in the district and a household name. Does he have any family members (preferrably state rep or senator) who could run for this seat?
Since Tanner is retiring he’ll at least vote for the final HCR bill. He opposed the last house bill vote.
Sure, it might be held with a strong candidate, but I’d assume TN-08 is gone. If it’s not, then that’s just a pleasant surprise.
15% of the precincts reporting
Pretty much has to be Roy Herron or Lowe Finney.
At least there’s Dem elected officials in the area. Even if the district and most of Tennessee got zero attention last year.
This is how 1994 started happening.
There are differences between next year and 1994, but they look less and less like fundamental differences of kind and more and more like mere differences in degree.
However….
The GOP got a strong majority in 1994 because they won all those Southern seats and were able to hold onto nearly everything they had historically held in the East, Midwest, and West. They were roughly at parity in California at that point, and not far from it in New York.
The national GOP is all but a dead letter in most of the Northeast and West Coast, and big chunks of the West and Midwest seem disposed against them as well.
Turnout among Democrats is going to be key. They can hold the bleeding down in everywhere but the reddest parts of the country.
But TN-8, though, is exactly the sort of seat Democrats aren’t going to be able to keep. It’s not as bad as some, but the bonds holding it to the Democratic Party are weak.
and run there. Them running again in those seats would immediately push them into the “likely” or “safe” catagories. They should abandon their longshot Senate bids now.
Herron just jumped races:
http://www.wreg.com/news/sns-a…
Tanner’s one of the co-founders of the Blue Dog Coalition! Terrible news 🙁
If Republicans regain the House in 2010, they will likely have a lock on it for much of the rest our lifetimes. This basically means no progress on healthcare, climate change, and gay rights until we are all very old, if then. As this is a big redistricting election, I have think, “of all the election cycles to f**k up, we had to choose this one”. Good god, this has been a nightmare.
have any intel on Lincoln Davis’s intentions? His fundraising has been abysmal.
I don’t recall seeing them here.
That we were going to lose TN-4, and some people thought I had said that thinking that Davis was going to run for governor. They never even considered the idea that a Repub could beat Davis straight up, as if he was untouchable. No rural southern Democrat is untouchable in this climate, not Gene Taylor, not Rick Boucher, nobody. TN-4 and TN-6 I think we’re in big trouble. But TN-8 isn’t quite as red as the other two, and we are putting up a good candidate, so I think our chances of retention are at least 50-50, maybe even better than 50-50