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TN-08: Tanner to Retire; Herron Will Run

by: James L.

Tue Dec 01, 2009 at 8:21 PM EST


Hotline on Call:

Rep. John Tanner (D-TN), a leading Blue Dog Dem, will retire at the end of his current term, Dem sources tell Hotline OnCall.

Tanner has begun informing key House Dems of his decision -- one that will make his seat a prime pickup opportunity for GOPers. He has served 11 terms in Congress representing northwest TN, a district based around Jackson, Clarksville and Union City. [...]

Tanner was almost certain to have a tough election. GOPers are thrilled with the prospects of Stephen Fincher (R), a farmer and gospel singer who raised more than $300K in his first several weeks campaigning. Though Tanner has nearly $1.4M in the bank, he may not have wanted to deal with what would have been his first tough race in years.

At a PVI of R+6, Tanner's 8th District isn't the toughest of Tennessee's Blue Dog bastions, but it will be a challenging hold nonetheless. Obama lost the district by a 43-56 margin in 2008, down from Kerry's 47-53 loss in 2004 and Al Gore's 51-48 edge at the start of the decade. For stats fans, that means that this district saw the 9th-worst district decline from Kerry to Obama, and the 12th-worst district drop from 2000 to 2008.

Presumably, Democrats will have a healthy bench down the ticket here, but it remains to be seen whether or not a candidate with solid campaign skills will take the plunge.

UPDATE: Here's one downballot name who represents part of this district: Democratic state Sen. Roy Herron. Herron is currently running for Governor in a crowded Democratic field, but perhaps he'd be interested in a switch. There are also quite a few more Democratic state Senators and Representatives whose districts overlap with the 8th CD.

LATER UPDATE: Looks like Herron is operating on the same brainwave. From the Associated Press:

Democratic state Sen. Roy Herron tells The Associated Press he is dropping his gubernatorial bid to instead seek the northwest Tennessee congressional seat being vacated by Rep. John Tanner.

Herron, a Dresden attorney, said in a phone interview Tuesday night that representing the 8th Congressional District has long been a goal of his.

Well, that's one hole filled -- and by a pretty credible candidate, to boot. This will be a race well worth watching. (Hat-tip: TNDem)

RaceTracker Wiki: TN-08
James L. :: TN-08: Tanner to Retire; Herron Will Run
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TN-08: Tanner to Retire; Herron Will Run | 179 comments
This one's a loss
Other thoughts about Tanner redacted.  
Thanks for your forbearance
I don't think we need an eleventy-zillionth debate about the merits (or lack thereof) of the Blue Dogs.
[ Parent ]
Agreed!
I usually skip them now, Ive said what Ive wanted to say pretty much.
[ Parent ]
The Avalanche Begins
The House will likely be lost.

29/D/Male/NY-01
Oh please
Cut it out.
[ Parent ]
LIST THEM!
41 SEATS, GO!!!!!

UNTIL THEN BULLSHIT AND STFU!!!!!

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
He's trolling as usual
We have FIVE open seats in danger.  That is a far cry from 1994.  Unless we have another 10 or so vulnerable seat retirements we're in good shape.

And republicans have plenty of their own tough open seats to try and hold.  LA-02 and DE-AL are easy pickups and we have at least a 50/50 shot at winning IL-10 and PA-06.

Right now the retirements are basically a wash.

[ Parent ]
I'd go as far as to say
Twenty retirements before control is in jeopardy. And only then if they are seats like Tanner's. They are not beating more than twenty incumbents.
[ Parent ]
Yep
And unlike in 1994 we don't have nearly as many entrenched Dems in DEEP red districts where there is no chance of a hold in case of a retirement.  Also, the Blue Dogs have a lot of power within the caucus these days.  They have very little to be disgusted into retirement over.  

[ Parent ]
I understand the frustration
With the endless Chicken Little-ing. But I think we can avoid phrases like "STFU".
[ Parent ]
'kayz
Sorry David

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
On further thought
Can we ration chicken littling to the commenters?  Can only claim the sky is falling 5 times a year?

Cause, yeah, I'm annoyed.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Oh please
This TN-08 loss balances a DE-AL gain.  I also have a certain LA cogressional seat that looks like a definate dem pickup.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Not to mention the Gerlach and Kirk seats

[ Parent ]
Exactly
And we probably have a better than 50/50 chance at takeovers in IL-10 and PA-06 as well.  
[ Parent ]
In 2006 or 2008, we would have won both
This year, I wouldn't count on it.  
[ Parent ]
As Chad said
50-50. But they are still Dem leaning seats and even in 1994 there were some gains in friendly territory.
[ Parent ]
Yes
I'm not counting on both of those to fall.  But at least one of those two should be a pickup in addition to DE-AL and LA-02 which are essentially in the bank.  There are quite a few other possibilities as well - namely the California seats.  The bare minimum number of republican seats to flip is probably 3-5 seats which offsets our own losses.
[ Parent ]
In 2004 we would have won both
as open seats.  Unless 2010 is worse than 2004, I think we'll win both in 2010.
[ Parent ]
I'm not so sure about 2004
After all, Gerlach only dates to 2002, and in that same election Ed Rendell won the 6th at the top of the ticket with many points to spare.  
[ Parent ]
Gerlach beat Murphy 51-49 in 2004
I'm pretty sure we would have won an open seat there.  This district was drawn specifically for Gerlach.  
Had Murphy ran even a C campaign, she would have beaten gerlach in 2006.  And if the Dems put up anything decent (even Murphy) in 2008, Obama would have carried him/her over.

[ Parent ]
The 6th is perpetually the district that "got away"
Is it just Gerlach? Who knows. I was convinced that Murphy would win in 2006. Convinced.  
[ Parent ]
I think it's Gerlach
He runs very solid campaigns and is masterful at appearing to be a sane moderate when he's really a conservative republican.  But we shall see next year.
[ Parent ]
Everyone was
PA-6 was the first GOP seat that was slated as Lean Democratic by both Rothenberg and Sabato.

But what was pathetic was 2008.  We put up a third rate candidate there, when a second rate one would be in Congress today.

[ Parent ]
Whatever.

We have DE-AL, PA-06, IL-10, LA-02, lots of California races.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
LOL
Love those guys! First appearance over here I believe?
[ Parent ]
Possibly.
I don't recall seeing them here.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Yes
If I had to make a current prediction I'd say republicans pickup 2-4 of our open seats and knock off about 15-20 incumbents.  That being offset by 4-6 democratic pickups for a net loss of around 20 seats.  

Take a look at the vulnerable Dem seats on a race by race analysis and tell me where they are going to net more than 25 seats tops from.  
Like I said, one of the few scanarios republicans even come close to 40 pickups is in the event of a dozen or so more vulnerable Dems retiring.  Incumbent Dems are always hard to defeat.

[ Parent ]
Threadwinning, Unknown
Hooray for you and for the falling sky.

But seriously, Ike Skelton, please don't retire. Give it one more term. One more term. You're chair of Armed Services for goshsakes. Do it for Missourah, Ike!

Do we have a list of Blue Dogs & McCain district Reps by age? Anyone?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Will likely be lost?
What you talking about? The House was lost when McCain stompped Obama into the ground with a 55, 44 victory.
[ Parent ]
Tek means the US House
First Moore, now Tanner. Avalanche. Not.
[ Parent ]
I suspect he means that
In a parallel universe where McCain won by double digits, the House Democrats were also massacred in huge numbers, plunging the Congress into the clutches of Speaker Boehner.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Uggg
So far we are still in very good shape on the retirement front.  Still just 5 dangerious opne seats right now.  As long as the floodgates don't open we're in good shape.

KS-03
TN-08
LA-03
NH-02
PA-07

And only two of those are likely goners
There may be a few more to come but "avalanche" is ridiculous.
[ Parent ]
Well last year I thought Bud Cramer's AL-05 seat was a "goner"!......
And "we" won that one.  I put "we" in quotation marks because the guy with a "D" next to his name is Parker Griffith, he of opposing-all-major-Dem-agenda-items and won't-vote-for-Pelosi-for-Speaker-again infamy.  But hey, I have no doubt Griffith still votes with us more than Rethug Wayne Parker.

My point is that I was humbled myself about writing off any seat.  Even today, with the highest level of ideological coherence the major parties have ever had, we seem to be able to pick off an abnormally high number of conservative districts.

And I find it amusing that while we still always seem to have a plausible path to victory in, say, a R+6 seat, Republicans rarely have a comparably plausible path in a D+6 seat, a fluke like Anh Cao notwithstanding.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I did say "likely"
Not definitely.
[ Parent ]
The Dems screwed up there
they should have coaxed Susan Parker or Roger Bedford to run in that race.
[ Parent ]
I'm much more pessimistic in the South than you
and I don't consider TN-8 a goner.  It is closer to AR-1 and AR-4 at the local level than LA-3, in that Republicans don't really have that much local strength there.
[ Parent ]
Well, we differ on incumbency
Much of our discussion has been about how important it is or isn't. If this was a D+6 seat in the last two cycles it was a certain gain while elsewhere Gerlach, Reichert and Kirk were able to hold on.
[ Parent ]
Incumbency matters I don't disagree
which is why this race is a tossup and not lean Democrat.  But the local support for Democrats, which will weaken substantially throughout the rural South in 2010, may not weaken enough to cost us this seat.  It is the same reason why I consider AR-1 and AR-4 safe, and would be even if it as open.

That said, by mid next decade, these areas will be much more Republican.

[ Parent ]
And we got slaughtered in Tennessee anyway
In 2008 Obama being atop the ballot did not help Dems in TN outside of the 9th district which is solidly Dem anyway.  Obama got destroyed in districts like Tanner's.  Dems may actually be in better shape in districts like Tanner's in 2010 than in 2008.
[ Parent ]
That's true, but how much difference would it make?
Obama got slaughtered.  Gore only barely lost.  Same outcome at the end.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
And three are blue-purple seats.
KS-03, NH-02, and PA-07.  Add to it offense opportunities in Republican-held but blue seats (DE-AL, IL-10, and PA-06), I'd say we're even and potentially ahead.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I've said it before
And I'll say it again.  I have a feeling quite a few more republican seats will open up.  I'd be stunned if Bill Young (FL-10) runs for re-election.
[ Parent ]
Really?
Dude seems to have a fair bit of piss and vinegar left in him.
[ Parent ]
Justice could have pushed him
If he was fundraising better.
[ Parent ]
That's what worries me
Justice appears to be running no campaign whatsoever.  I'm sorried that if Young retires Justice won't even be in good shape to win an open seat.
[ Parent ]
Worried that is

[ Parent ]
...and Young's challenger isn't scaring him right now......
Justice's anemic fundraising can only encourage Young to stick around another term.  If Young retires anytime in the next few weeks, it's because he's finally decided to retire to a life of leisure, or maybe lobbying and riches (after what I believe now is a legally requisite time off).  It won't be because he fears a tough race.

If Justice can up his fundraising to a serious level, then Young will have THAT as a consideration.  But not right now.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It's still early, junkies
Midterms are basically one year away and it seems fundraising help is being deployed. Justice can pick up the pace and, as far as I know (and I don't know much about this race, admittedly) has a solid record as an elected official.

And he has an awesome, memorable name. So there's that. Seriously, though, I bet the name "Justice" is worth an extra half percent of the vote just from people who have no idea but show up to vote anyway (ie-midterms). And in a close race...I'm just sayin'....if I were a Republican, I would be scared of Justice.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, probably a good name for the law and order vote
Hah!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Plenty of other candidates have raised more
MN-6, Tarryl Clark and Maureen Reed both have, and they certainly have been talked up as much as Justice has.
[ Parent ]
Ok this really sucks
I'm not a huge fan of John Tanner's record, but he was nowhere near the worst of the Blue Dog.    

Nevertheless, of the three Tennessee seats, this one is the least difficult to hold.  Much like Arkansas districts 1 and 4, this is a district that votes much more Dem at the local and state level (I'm pretty sure Harold Ford carried it.).  So much so that even a strong shift to the GOP in the rural South in 2010 will be unlikely to swing this area.  

My concern is that we will get a Democratic nominee that is much more conservative than Tanner, and much more conservative than needs to be.
Given the trend toward the GOP in the South, I would put this race as a Tossup.
Question?  Does Kim McMillan live in this district, if so maybe she can shift to this race from Governor.

I think this race now is a GOP lean, not a tossup...
...unless and until an obviously strong Dem steps up to run.

I suppose it's all how you analyze it, and if you just assume a deep enough bench is there that someone strong will run from it, then you can call it a tossup.

But in my view I start with a district's natural ideological and partisan leans, and wait for a candidate to show up who can counter that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Somebody strong will run
There is a deep Democratic bench in this region of Tennessee, it is the third strongest district for the Dems there.  

I'm not completely sure, but I wouldn't be surprised if Harold Ford won the district in 2006.  It is not Republican at the local level.  And while that matters much less in 2010 in the rural South where anti-Obama sentiment is huge, it still matters.

[ Parent ]
Agree with JSmith
I'm also pessimistic about the deep south in 2010 but TN-08 has a pretty deep bench and Dems still fare ok there.  I wouldn't put it worse than a 50/50 tossup until we see who runs.
[ Parent ]
I would
If we win that district next year, I will eat a shoe.  
[ Parent ]
For bonus points
You should make sure to boil it with herbs and stock, and film the whole thing.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
HAH!

[ Parent ]
Awesome link
We are definitely holding andgarden to that if we win TN-08.
[ Parent ]
Heh
That's one way to encourage interest in a House race.


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Nice
I would opt for an Italian shoe. Nice, fine leather...and a kids shoe...and my oh my that's among the reasons why I would never use that cliche phrase. Even if you turn out to be right. Which frankly I wouldn't discount...certainly not completely. Even if...mmmm, shoe.

Btw, you better be counting even the most conservative Blue Dog Dem who could run and win the primary as "we," or else it doesn't count...   :)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Kim McMillian
did live in his district when she was in the state house, so I assume she still does, but I don't think she is the best candidate.
[ Parent ]
The three best candidates,
as a Tennessean I would say are Roy Herron, Lowe Finney, or Doug Jackson (all state Senators). Herron and Finney would be Tanner clones, Jackson is social conservative (pro-life, anti-gay marriage, pro-gun) and probably slightly to the right of Tanner on economic issues. I want Herron to stay in the gubernatorial race, so I hope Lowe Finney considers running.
[ Parent ]
Ok Doug Jackson is simply not worth electing
if someone had Jackson's views on social issues but was an economic liberal/populist, it would be a different story.
[ Parent ]
Random thought...
There is a very high liklihood tht republicans are going to control the remap of Tennessee in 2012.  Is it possible that Tanner's district could be screwed with in 2012 to make life nearly impossible for him?  Maybe that played into his thinking.
That's what I've been thinking.
Not necessariily with Tanner per se, but for Tennessee in general.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, we'll probably have 2-3 Districts there at best
in 2012. It's sort of absurd that we have a majority of the delegation there now.  
[ Parent ]
Well it is pretty absurd IMO
that the GOP has 7 districts in Michigan and 19 in California, IMO.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
Hopefully Dems manage to take control of Michigan redistricting.  But that's a big if.  I think we'll likely take the state senate but holding the Governorship is the hard part.  Michigan can likely yield at least 2 more Dem seats if we control the process.
[ Parent ]
I'm for a national bipartisan districting commission
Congress can create one tomorrow.

that's my new pet cause.  

[ Parent ]
Sadly
It's extremely unlikely.  Just too many issues involved in such a thing.  Only real chance at such reform is at the state level.  Though there does appear to be more and more states where legislators are warming to the issue.  Even in Texas I believe a good many state republicans support it.
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure that helps us
look at MattTX's diary at gerrymanders in Maryland.  The GOP gerrymander doesn't look like a gerrymander at all.
[ Parent ]
Nope, none of that
The NJ Dems got it right.  
[ Parent ]
The NJ process is a joke
Even outrageous gerrymandering is a better process than that garbage.  There are far better models for fair redistricting than the joke of a NJ process.
[ Parent ]
Not really
Here's my assessment: Either you can have a "fair" map that naturally packs Democrats, or you can make the parties take their gamble. The latter is what we have now in most states, but who gets to make the gamble is entirely uneven. I'd like to avert the possibility of temporary Republican gains next year in various big states screwing us in years to come. Yes, there could be blowback against that that they don't predict, but at least a national model would give us consistency.  
[ Parent ]
I did a paper on democrats being packed into Dem districts
I found that in the 2004 presidential races, the popular vote will be one percentage while the percentage in number of seats will favor Republicans.  And while Obama improved on the electoral college and the popular vote, his increase in congressional districts wasnt as high.

And we have several districts over D+20 while the GOP has very very few.  If it weren't for needing VRA districts, we could improve on that margin significantly in a number of southern states.  VA-3, NC-10, and FL-3 are all such eye sores as is.  I hope we get to a day where we decide to repeal the law because it simply is not needed.

It makes me wonder if thats how the Stupkak amendment can get passed.  This country is probably a pro-choice country.  It's just that many of us are packed into Dem districts.

[ Parent ]
Possible counter argument
I wonder - if we had a bunch more say D+5 districts (instead of a few D+20 districts), would we have as many liberal heroes (a.k.a. "better democrats") - or would the D party be even more dominated by corporate interests?

(Personally, I prefer your scenario, Andrew; however, I don't know if such a redistribution would lead to unintended consequences.)

[ Parent ]
There are plenty votes to play with
The most Dem PVI is +41 with the most R being +29. But there are only about twenty Repub seats at R+20 or above but more than fifty Dem seats at or above D+20. That is a huge problem. And there are penty good progressives in +5 seats and some in much less than that.
[ Parent ]
Do you mean bipartisan or independent?
All bipartisan means is an equal number of republicans and democrats on a commission.  What you'd likely get from such a thing is a New Jersey style incumbent protection map.  An independent panel is different from a bipartisan one.
[ Parent ]
That's why I mean a bipartisan one
NJ as the model is FINE with me.  
[ Parent ]
Seriously?
New Jersey is horrible.  Bipartisan incumbent protection maps result districts that are almost impossible to even contest.
[ Parent ]
Two points
1. If ever there were a time when we'd actually want that, it would be about now. We're looking to consolidate our gains And we can give the Republicans a reason to vote for it too, because if there's a chance they'd ever win back the House--if narrowly, it would be next year.

2. In fact, such maps really don't always make contests impossible. The PA legislature uses such a panel for its legislative districts. And the PA House continues to flop back and forth periodically.  

[ Parent ]
The PA state house map fell apart
But their state senate map is ironclad.  Dems have gained what, 1 total seat in that chamber despite two democratic landslide elections?
[ Parent ]
The House map fell apart, even though there
the Republicans did not (really, could not) overreach. They tried to cement their fairly narrow majority, and nothing more. Still no dice. IMO, that's the worst possible outcome with my proposal.

The Senate situation I'm at a loss to explain. IMO, it's mostly because we've not really made much of an effort in most of their weak districts. It's like the NY state senate before 2000.  

[ Parent ]
Just looked it up
PA state Senate was 29R/21D following the 2004 elections and stands at 30R/20D today.  So we LOST a net 1 seats after two great elections nationally.  No excuse for that even it the map is heavily GOP tilted.

I seem to recall Dems losing one of the top targets in the PA state senate in 2008 to an incumbent that dies before the election.  Then we lost again in a special election to a live opponent.

[ Parent ]
The GOP basically holds all the suburban seats
in the Senate.  Until we crack that, the GOP will always hold the PA Senate.
[ Parent ]
I think the US House delegation illustrates
that even a map outrageously tilted against us probably shouldn't be so bad. It seems like we're just not even trying. The State House is a different story.  
[ Parent ]
Ya
It does seem like democrats are better at overcoming gerrymanders than republicans are.
[ Parent ]
That's because most of the overreaching gerrymanders were Republican
In 2001, the Republicans had free reign to carve up big states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, because they controlled those states outright. California was the only big state that the Democrats controlled, but they did a meek incumbent protection map. And the Democratic map from Texas was undone by the DeLay-engineered gerrymander.
[ Parent ]
The California 2002 "meek incumbent protection map"
Included:

* Making safe seats for the four freshmen Democrats elected in 2000.

* After Gary Condit imploded in CA-18, strengthening the district so another Democrat, Dennis Cardoza, could win it.

* Ensuring that California's new 53rd seat went to a Democrat.

It could've been worse.

[ Parent ]
How?
There is no possible way the 2002 California redistricting to have been done worse for Democrats, considering Democrats were 100% in charge.

Easily the worst and most cowardly gerrymander of the cycle, a complete flop.  In 2002, only one Democrat won with less than 55% of the vote, and only two with less than 58%.

Any reasonable gerrymander should have created at least two more Democrats by now.

[ Parent ]
Who in 2002 was expecting California to be 61% Dem in 2008?
No one can totally accurately predict the future. And with Davis so unpopular at the time, California could have very well slipped back to the Republicans. We just got lucky that we faced Bill Simon instead of Richard Riordan.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Basically everyone
The trends were clear.  And Davis was reelected despite being a tool.

Not a single Democrat won by less than a NINE PERCENT margin.  None were in any real danger, and only one was even in minor danger.  Tauscher didn't even get a Republican opponent, and she had more Dems crammed into her district even though she did not want them.

No one can predict the future, but only a blithering idiot would have acted how the Dems acted if they were trying to act in the Party's and the country's best interest.  No one was in danger, yet we get a gerrymander that was similar to what we would have gotten if the Republicans were in charge of everything.

And it will 95% likely happen again.

[ Parent ]
So Davis would have beaten Riordan in 2002?
And most people could see CA going over 60% Dem in 2008 all the way back in 200-freaking-2? Seriously???

Only after those elections, with Simon defeated because he was clearly too conservative for California even against an unpopular incumbent, was California's status as a strong Dem state firmly established when Dems won every statewide office. Had Riordan (who endorsed Villaraigosa in the 2001 L.A. mayor race) been the GOP nominee, the whole calculus likely would have changed.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
It seems pathetic
Isn't the person who represents Chester (heavily Democratic) the GOP leader of the Senate?
[ Parent ]
You're thinking of
[ Parent ]
ABSOLUTELY NOT
I'd rather have partisan Gerrymandering than bipartisan incumbent protection rackets.  Give us non-partisan commissions, like they use in Canada.  Politicians should have nothing to do with the process.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
If you drew an incumbent protection map today
it would be a pretty big improvement for Dems nationwide. Heck, even if we lose 20 seats next year it would be an improvement. Our House margin would go down, but our remaining incumbents would be in safer seats and easier to pressure in various ways.  
[ Parent ]
So you don't want fair redistricting?
You want republican and democratic legislators in a smoke filled room working together to gerrymander their own districts in a bipartisan way?  Sounds like utopia...
[ Parent ]
Due respect, but have you followed this discussion?
There is basically no such thing as "fair" redistricting. You can strive to be fair, but in the process you will end up prejudicing one side or the other.

The "smoke-filled room" exercise allows for--indeed, requires--the kind of compromises that I believe will serve our party better. If we have any kind of majority at all, we will be unlikely to see the kind of wholesale urban "packing" that would result from an attempt at a "fair" map or a Republican gerrymander. Moreover, even if the new map leaned towards that situation (i.e., California), we would still probably end up with a majority of Democrats worth having (a goal that interests me greatly).

[ Parent ]
Yes
The 9th district will always be there due to voting rights and I doubt they can screw us out of a Nashville based district (TN-05 right now).  But they can definately shoot for a 7R/2D gerrymander in Tennessee.  They might have to wait in a retiremtn or two from entrenched Dems but that is probably the future of Dems in Tennessee.

Hard to believe this is the same state Harold Ford nearly carried just 3 years ago...

[ Parent ]
I posted a theoretical GOP gerrymander of TN
that targeted Davis and Gordon for elimination, but didn't mess with Tanner. I'm sure the Republicans would love to flip the map from 5-4 to 2-7, but the problem with diluting TN-08 is there isn't a bunch of historically-Republican territory to draw off of like there is in the eastern part of the state.
[ Parent ]
Doubt they could screw with the 8th,
without highly diluting one of their own districts. My guess is the 4th is the one they target because you can make it more Republican by simply switching out Democratic areas in the 4th for Republican areas in the 6th or since the 6th is growing and the 4th is not, simply move Republicans into the 4th from the 6th.
[ Parent ]
So Tennessee Democratic Party
Is it dead yet? State House lost in 2008 (sorta, yes, no, there are more Rs than Ds and they won a special, yes), 1 of three states Obama performed worse than Kerry in, Dems preparing to lose their only statewide office of Governor with no real bench, and 3 of 5 US House seats held by democrats went for Grampa McCain by big margins with this one now left open.

For kicks one of the two seats Obama did win has a democratic congressman who is kinda worthless.

So, future of TN Democrats, what is it?

And how long until Arkansas catches up?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

Another thought
Family members?  Ya, nepotism isn't always great but Tanner is well-respected in the district and a household name.  Does he have any family members (preferrably state rep or senator) who could run for this seat?
Isn't he related to the McWherther's?

[ Parent ]
Maybe
I read that on Wikipedia, but saw no mention of it on his site.

However, Politico does say the following:

"The Almanac of American Politics notes that Tanner is a cousin to McWherter"

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

[ Parent ]
Hopefully
Since Tanner is retiring he'll at least vote for the final HCR bill.  He opposed the last house bill vote.
Pencil it in as a loss
Sure, it might be held with a strong candidate, but I'd assume TN-08 is gone. If it's not, then that's just a pleasant surprise.
Kasim Reed leading with 55% of the vote in Atlanta
15% of the precincts reporting
32% reporting
No change.
[ Parent ]
Last SUSA poll 2 weeks ago
The last poll had it Reed 49 Norwood 46 with 5% undecided (mostly blacks).  A 55-45 final margin would be about right considering most of the late deciders probably go with Reed.
[ Parent ]
Results diary is up

[ Parent ]
Hm
Pretty much has to be Roy Herron or Lowe Finney.

At least there's Dem elected officials in the area. Even if the district and most of Tennessee got zero attention last year.

Bad Trend
This is how 1994 started happening.

There are differences between next year and 1994, but they look less and less like fundamental differences of kind and more and more like mere differences in degree.

However....

The GOP got a strong majority in 1994 because they won all those Southern seats and were able to hold onto nearly everything they had historically held in the East, Midwest, and West. They were roughly at parity in California at that point, and not far from it in New York.

The national GOP is all but a dead letter in most of the Northeast and West Coast, and big chunks of the West and Midwest seem disposed against them as well.  

Turnout among Democrats is going to be key. They can hold the bleeding down in everywhere but the reddest parts of the country.

But TN-8, though, is exactly the sort of seat Democrats aren't going to be able to keep.  It's not as bad as some, but the bonds holding it to the Democratic Party are weak.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

I agree
This is a bad trend and does not make me happy. I'm not feeling panicky yet, but I do not look forward to the possibility of a bunch more Democratic retirements in tough districts.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Hopefully
this isn't the start of a trend. Something must be afoot if Dems in hard to hold districts suddenly want to retire with Obama in the White House and solid majorities in both houses. Maybe these congressman don't have the fire in their bellies to actually campaign after all these years.

By the way, why do you think the NRCC and the NRSC seem to have the edge on the recruitment front right now?  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Not necessarily
Dem ocrats in the house had historically low numbers of retirements in 2006 and 2008.  Eventually tere had to be a cycle where retirements catch up to a normal rate.
[ Parent ]
It would be better
If that catch up cycle were 2012 rather than 2010.

TN is smack in the middle of the part of the country that voted more for McCain than for Bush.

[ Parent ]
Probably will
I'd expect democrats in states where republicans are likely to control redistricting are likely to retire in 2012.  People like Jim Marshall in GA-08, Lincoln Davis in TN-04 and John Spratt in SC-05 would probably be gerrymandered out in 2012 anyhow.  That was why I hoped Lincoln Davis would just run for Governor of Tennessee as it appeared he would early in this cycle.
[ Parent ]
Tennessee
I am not optimistic about Tennessee.

But in the case of Spratt, his district is as likely to become another African American VRA district as it is to be destroyed, with a Dem DOJ.

[ Parent ]
Spratt probably not
South Carolina gains a seat in 2012, and it will be hard to draw a 6-1 map for the GOP, so they will probably stick a whole bunch of extra black territory in Spratt's district if he holds on in 2010.  The latter is very iffy, IMO.

[ Parent ]
Eventually yes
But TN-8, though, is exactly the sort of seat Democrats aren't going to be able to keep.  It's not as bad as some, but the bonds holding it to the Democratic Party are weak.

But this and the two rural Arkansas seats are pretty Democratic at the local level, and while the bonds are breaking, it will take some time.

I can see the Democrats holding this seat in 2010.  Had this been 2014 or 2018, I'd bet that we would almost certainly lose it.  Same thing in AR-1 and AR-4.  

[ Parent ]
Re-alignment
The 2008 cycle marked a clear break from the political heritage of yellow-dog Democrats splitting their tickets in West and Middle Tennessee. All the old assumptions about a base electorate inclined by tradition to support local Democrats down-ballot in these regions can pretty much be eliminated as valid. This race will come down to the candidates involved.

Democrat: TN-8
[ Parent ]
This "GOP won 1994 b/c of Dem Southern Seats" meme is FUNDAMENTALLY WRONG!
And I'm getting tired of beating this horses$%^t!! Again, here are the facts b4 folks start Tekzilling their way into bedwetters!

In the 1994 election, GOP picked 54 House seats= 20 were Dem retirements and 34 were Dem incumbents.

Of the 20 Dem retirements, how many were from the South? A gigantic 10!!

Of the 34 GOP pickups? How many were from the South!! A CATACLYSMIC 9!!

1994 GOP pickups in Deep south AL, LA and AR? NOPE! NADA! ZIPPO!

Facts stated, now back to informed debate.

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

[ Parent ]
True
People forget that by far our worst state in 1994 was now very blue Washington with SIX seats lost.
[ Parent ]
Tom Foley had a lot to do with that
He successfully sued to overturn Washington State's newly passed term limit law, prompting the voters to enforce the law's provisions in the voting booth.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Also
Dems won back some of those southern seats lost in 1994.  In 1996 we took back two of the lost seats in NC alone.  I believe both were rematches of 1994.
[ Parent ]
I know one of those rematches
was David Price vs. Fred "$300,000 to $750,000 is middle class" Heineman. Heineman was the best kind of Republican, one who was clearly going to go down but provide a lot of fun in the process.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I do agree that ....
$350k to $700k is middle class! ( In my mind, I tell myself that so I can find something...anything really, to make me consider voting republican).

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  
[ Parent ]
Joe Sestak and Charlie Melancon need to go back to their districts
and run there.  Them running again in those seats would immediately push them into the "likely" or "safe" catagories.  They should abandon their longshot Senate bids now.  
Sestak isn't a longshot at all.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Calling Sestak a longshot is laughable.  Each poll he creeps closer and closer to Specter and performs better in head to head polls against Toomey than Specter does.  I'd call it a tossup at worst for Sestak vs. Specter with a small edge for Sestak.
[ Parent ]
Sestak is a better bet anyways
I never understood the logic by some Dems when they argue that Specter should be left alone.  He was acting even worse than Ben Nelson when he first switched, and when Sestak jumped in poof he became a reliable Democratic vote and stopped mouthing off to the press about how much his new party sucked.  If Sestak jumped out, he'd douche out on the caucus again and would create headaches for everyone.  Not to mention, Specter is an 80 year-old cancer survivor.  Even if he were to beat Toomey (which the polls are increasingly showing as less than likely) he'd be a one-term rental.  Sestak is young enough that he could hold that seat for a long time.  Coupled with Bob Casey, they could hold both Senate seats in a crucial state as long as they wanted.
[ Parent ]
Yep.
I don't trust Specter not to run back to the right if he won.  Nor am I sure he'll make it through the term (as morbid as that is).  With the Pennsylvania Governor's race up in the air, I don't want to risk letting a Republican governor appoint a Republican Senator.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Herron Running in 8th
Herron just jumped races:

http://www.wreg.com/news/sns-a...

Maybe I'd better get that leather tenderizer ready
I doubt it, though.  
[ Parent ]
You could always wimp out and get these slippers
[ Parent ]
Heh

[ Parent ]
strategy
When a 22-year incumbent retires, there is a huge group of people waiting in the wings.

Herron just scared off a lot of challengers, got his name in every article about Tanner's retirement, and made the crowded TN-Governor race much less confusing.

He was a frontrunner for governor. This is a big deal.  

[ Parent ]
He was a frontrunner
in the primaries, or/and in hypothetical general election matchups?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
frontrunner?
He won several straw polls and was the Democrat best positioned to connect with rural voters here. So yes, I considered him the frontrunner.  
[ Parent ]
Herron
is the best candidate for this seat. I hope the field clears for him now, I think if he is our nominee it is a hold for us. Still, I hate losing him in the governor's race. He was our best candidate.
[ Parent ]
Careerwise
This is probably a good move for Herron. He will be the frontrunner for this seat and after a few turns will be better positioned to run for Governor in 2018.
[ Parent ]
You're messing up the CW
What do you think you're doing by claiming we might hold this seat.  The mood is supposed to be "OMGZ teh sky is falling!".
[ Parent ]
Sorry
I forgot that was the appropriate mood. I thought I would look at district/candidate dynamics, but silly me.
[ Parent ]
Leader?
Tanner's one of the co-founders of the Blue Dog Coalition! Terrible news :(
No more retirements
If Republicans regain the House in 2010, they will likely have a lock on it for much of the rest our lifetimes.  This basically means no progress on healthcare, climate change, and gay rights until we are all very old, if then.  As this is a big redistricting election, I have think, "of all the election cycles to f**k up, we had to choose this one".  Good god, this has been a nightmare.  
What has been a nightmare?
The Republicans are far more unpopular than Congressional Democrats.  Chances are we lose some seats in the South we have no reason to have anyway, while picking up seats half of the outstanding D+ seats... and gain one or more seats in the Senate.

These guys who have been holding deep red seats for years have to retire sometimes, and then the seats will flip.  Big deal.

The center-left has power for the first time in at least 45 years, and some people are all worried... while the Republican brand is at its worst since the 1930s.

Shessh, everything is looking pretty good, except our recruitment isn't as good as theirs, and Obama needs to step it up in terms of being a better President.

[ Parent ]
Beyond the south
The southern seats, I'm kinda meh on win or lose them, I'd like to keep them as obnoxious as the reps are,. It's the industrial midwest that worries me.

Midwest: Ike Skelton (MO), several of our Ohio seats (CDs 1, 15 for sure; not so much 16 and 18), our open Philly seats and our Pittsburgh seats (Murtha/Altmire), as well as Mark Schauer in MI and Steve Kagen in WI. Open KS-3 seat. It's the midwest I'm worried about falling apart with these seats.  12 seats

The West/Southwest: All I'm worried about is Dina Titus and Walt Minnick. I feel good about Harry Teague and Betsy Markey with no worries to the rest of the CO delegation (I know Perlmutter got a good challenger, but I don't see him losing and it seems J. Salazar is getting a pass). 3 seats

NE: NH-2. The end. Only cause it's open. New York seats seem to be on good track to stay blue. I'll put MD-1 on this list cause I don't believe in a "mid Atlantic" 2 seats

Now the South, we got a list of seats to defend that we may very well lose. VA-2 and VA-5 (Srsly, Periello and Nye need to switch constituencies), Kissell in NC, Spratt in SC, Marshall and Barrow in GA, Grayson, Kosmos and Boyd in FL, Bright and Griffith in AL, The open TN-8 as well as Bart Gordon and Lincoln Davis, all three AR seats. That's 17 vulnerable seats in The south alone, equal to the vulnerabilities of all other parts of America combined. Of note, Childers in MS-1 and Edwards in TX-17 I'm not worried about. I feel good about those two.

So yeah, mid west is my big concern at this point. If I start hearing about Skelton, Boswell, Stupak, Obey (yeah right) going home, I will begin to freak out.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Markey?
I dunno, I'm very worried about that one.  It's still a conservative district won in large part because of how bad Musgrave was.
[ Parent ]
Also
Why do you feel good about Teague?  The former Rep. forthe district is running again and despite his aweful 2008 statewide performance he has a very good chance of beating Teague.  Teague did himself no favors voting for Cap and Trade.  I'd call that one a tossup with it being closer to leans R than leans D.
[ Parent ]
The 2008 senate race gives me hope
Udall beat Pearce in his home district, shows me Pearce can be beaten. Also, Teague's margin in 2008 is good. In regards to the energy bill, skip cap n trade and go right to solar with Teague pointing out how flat and sunny his district is and the infrastructure that will be built here.

Close, yes, but I see Teague holding with 51.5% or so.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Yeah.
And looking at the map, it looks like Richardson might have won the area as well.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
There's no way Richardson didn't win NM-02 in 2002
I can't see a single county in the south that Richardson didn't do better compared to Obama in southern New Mexico, not to mention the fact that he won heavily Republican Lea County (Hobbes) and coming close in Chaves County (Roswell). Richardson definitely won NM-02 in 2002 (and, of course, Richardson won all but one county in 2006 :P)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
You should keep something in mind
Pearce is not running as an incumbent, he's running as a guy who abandoned his district to run a campaign in which he lost by 20 points. That's not the sort of thing that will endear him to his constituents in southern New Mexico.

One worrying aspect for Teague though is that both Pearce and Teague are from Hobbes (in deeply red southeast New Mexico), which is part of the reason he was able to win by such a wide margin in 2008.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
That is very much true.
"Pearce is not running as an incumbent, he's running as a guy who abandoned his district..."

Although not as extreme of an example (due to the differences in PVI) would be Ken Lucas attempting to get his seat back after retiring.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I worry more about elephants eating my shoes
than Kagen losing to the same dude be beat by 8 points a year ago.

We have worries in R+5 districts, as we should, but anything less than that we should do better than last year, and pick up a few seats.

The country has been realigning since 1984, and there is one shift left... losing red seats seats held in the non-coastal South, and picking up seats in the Northeast and Midwest.  Texas and Arizona are really the only states where realignment is a little further off.

[ Parent ]
In the 2008 election cycle
House republicans had 16 retirements at this exact point in the cycle (12/1/2007).  Dems have barely half that number right now and far fewer vulnerable open seats.
[ Parent ]
A lock?
Six months ago the Democrats had a lock. No such thing.
[ Parent ]
Uhh... no
Simple demographic trends make it a near impossibility for the GOP to control the house for very long even if they did retake it in 2010.  Redistricting is one aspect.  The GOP controlled almost every major state remap in 2002.  2012 will be VERY different.  They control the fate of far fewer districts during redistricting than we do as of this moment.
[ Parent ]
Any Tennesseans
have any intel on Lincoln Davis's intentions?  His fundraising has been abysmal.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
He had been considering a run for Governor, but decided against it
Presumably that means he'll be continuing to serve in the House, although if he sees bad enough poll numbers, he might decide to retire too. (That's the only reason I can figure for why Tanner, who has been safe his entire tenure in Congress including 1994, is suddenly retiring now.)
[ Parent ]
I said back in April
That we were going to lose TN-4, and some people thought I had said that thinking that Davis was going to run for governor.  They never even considered the idea that a Repub could beat Davis straight up, as if he was untouchable.  No rural southern Democrat is untouchable in this climate, not Gene Taylor, not Rick Boucher, nobody.  TN-4 and TN-6 I think we're in big trouble.  But TN-8 isn't quite as red as the other two, and we are putting up a good candidate, so I think our chances of retention are at least 50-50, maybe even better than 50-50  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
Huh?
So there's an open seat in TN-8, which is Tanner's seat. Yet, you're saying we're going to lose TN-4?

I'm not seeing how Tanner's retirement has anything to do with vulnerability. He's stated his reasoning. There's NO hint that he's retiring because he's got opposition.

It's hard to figure out Davis is more vulnerable than the open TN-4 seat......

"No rural southern Democrat is untouchable in this climate, not Gene Taylor, not Rick Boucher, nobody"

Even in a climate as rough as 1994, Taylor still garnered over 60%. How familiar are you with Taylor's district and/or any opposition he has?

Taylor losing is as likely as Pelosi losing her seat.

[ Parent ]
Ehh
TN-04 is much morerepublican than TN-08 is.  I agree that Lincoln probably survives and the 8th open seat is our most endangered.  But I don't think it's out of the question that TN-04 could be a serious problem.

Also have to agree on Gene Taylor.  I see zero chance of him losing.  

[ Parent ]
I disagree on Taylor
The chance of him losing is not zero.  Pretty low yes, but certainly not zero.
[ Parent ]
Sure
Gotcha, so then George Miller, Maxine Waters, and Henry Waxman could lose as well.

I honestly doubt anyone who says there's a 0% or 100% chance of someone winning or losing literally means that. Someone could resign due to illness or some other factor.

[ Parent ]
"So there's an open seat in TN-8, which is Tanner's seat. Yet, you're saying we're going to lose TN-4? "
That was what Stephen said before Tanner announced his retirement.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Well
I'm trying to figure out what TN-04 has to do with TN-08 or am I reading the topic wrong? :)
[ Parent ]
I think
what Stephen said that back when Lincoln Davis was getting some buzz about being a possible governor contender, before he decided against a run, people thought that his district would be almost certain to flip because it has trended so red so fast. Tanner's district has not shifted as quickly, according to the presidential results by district, plus it has a good bench, as evidenced by the quick selection of a new Dem candidate. (Though I admit I don't know how our bench in TN-04 is.)

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I fully agree with this comment
No rural southern Democrat is untouchable in this climate, not Gene Taylor, not Rick Boucher, nobody.  TN-4 and TN-6 I think we're in big trouble.

The only ones I see as safe right now in the white rural border/South are:

Bob Etheridge (NC-8)
Marion Barry (AR-1)
Mike Ross (AR-4)
Nick Rahall (WV-3)
Dan Boren (OK-2)

Tanner would be on this list if he was running again.  Taylor is probably going to win pretty easily, but because his district is so Republican, I'm unwilling to put it as safe.  Rick Boucher is an underdog for reelection.  If he is back in 2011, the GOP should be sued for incompetence.

I think all three Tennessee seats should be considered tossups.  The one most likely to win, IMO, is Gordon.    

[ Parent ]
Etheridge should be NC-2

[ Parent ]
Hrmm
So at what point does a seat become unsafe? Of course, a 0% chance is impossible for any Congressional district because anything can happen to anyone, but if you're using PVI then where do you stop?

I can think of NOTHING, and I repeat, NOTHING, to signify that there's anything other than a safe ranking for Taylor's seat.

Looking at his opponent's financial disclosure, looking at Taylor's past vote total in the district, his committee seats, etc, there's nothing, absolutely nothing, that says he's in any danger.

What is your justification? He's never been caught up in any scandal, he's popular in the district (hence the reason he gets re-elected so easily), etc.

[ Parent ]
Gene Taylor is very popular
He's widely respected for his blunt non-nonsense talk on many issues - namely Katrina which badly damaged his district.

And I don't doubt for a minute that he would have punched Michael Brown in the face had the two met after the storm.

Taylor will win in a walk as he always does.

[ Parent ]
Even the netroots generally like Taylor
Places like Daily Kos are often VERY overly critical of Blue Dogs, yet I rarely hear a bad word even from them about the guy.  He has a solid backing from even the left that is very unusual.
[ Parent ]
Here's why
Taylor focuses on local issues, votes against the party but doesn't bash the party leadership or anyone else.  

Basically he keeps quiet and is not a cancer or an obstructionist.

[ Parent ]
My justification is this
68% voted for John McCain in the district.  The district is heavily Republican at the national, state, and local levels.  This is not like an Arkansas district where the Dems lose at the Presidential level but win everywhere else.

If enough Republicans in the district decide to vote straight party line, Taylor could lose.  Is it likely, no.  But anger toward Obama is very high in MS-4, and Taylor's opponent will get a good deal more than he/she would usually get because of anti-Obama opposition, even though Taylor has consistently opposed Obama's agenda.

 

[ Parent ]
TN-08: Tanner to Retire; Herron Will Run | 179 comments

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