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SC-01: Henry Brown Calls It Quits

by: James L.

Mon Jan 04, 2010 at 2:42 AM EST


It looks like House Democrats aren't the only ones heading to the exits this year -- electorally-vulnerable Republicans can get in on the act, too! Cue up a retirement from an oh-so-unsurprising source: GOP Rep. Henry "Smokey" Brown. From the Politico:

Rep. Henry Brown, a five-term South Carolina Republican from a conservative-leaning district, has told associates he will his announce his retirement Monday, POLITICO has learned.

He will be making his announcement at a press conference tomorrow afternoon back in his coastal Carolina district

Brown survived a closer-than-expected re-election in 2008 and was already facing a primary challenge from Carroll Campbell III, the son of the former GOP governor and congressman.

Brown, who was nearly decapitated by Democrat Linda Ketner in 2008, was facing a potentially crowded primary from "Tumpy" Campbell, Mt. Pleasant Town Councilman Mark Fava, Isle of Palms councilman Ryan Buckhannon, and "frequent candidate" Katherine Jenerette. Attorney Paul Thurmond (Son of Strom) has also been in the mix as a potential GOP candidate.

Democrats have been making noises about seriously contesting this coastal R+10 district again this year, but it's unclear who will be the nominee. One of the leading contenders for the nomination, state Rep. Leon Stavrinakis, said that he would make a decision last July, but has since remained silent on the subject. Georgetown restauranteur Robert Dobbs, a political newcomer, is in. Robert Burton, a former South Carolina Housing, Finance, and Development Authority Commissioner and U.S. Air Force Colonel, is also in. Burton has a bit more political seasoning -- he lost a statewide race for SC Adjutant General in 1998. Retired navy officer and accountant Dick Withington rounds out the current primary field. Attorney Ashley Cooper, a former Fritz Hollings aide, has also been reportedly mulling the race. We'll see how this one shakes out.

UPDATE (Cristunity): Politico is rolling out lots of names of potential other Republicans in addition to the ones we've already mentioned. Most notable may be former Rep. Tommy Hartnett, who held the forerunner to this seat in the 80s. (Hartnett is 68, not much younger than the retiring Brown.) Other potential names listed by former state chair (and almost RNC chair) Katon Dawson include state Sen. Luke Rankin, state Rep. Chip Limehouse, and state Sen. Chip Campsen. The rumor mill also points to state Sen. Raymond Cleary, state Rep. Alan Clemmons, and... this seems like an out-of-the-box pick, but she may have emerged from last years' events with her personal popularity increased... first lady Jenny Sanford. Finally, on the Dem side, it's worth noting that restaurant owner Robert "Bob" Dobbs does have a political track record, as a former county commissioner -- unfortunately, that was in Manitowoc County, Wisconsin.

RaceTracker Wiki: SC-01

James L. :: SC-01: Henry Brown Calls It Quits
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Radanovich, Brown
the Dems are fleeing due to impending losses

(/politcon)

Ha


forgot an extra I in politico
oh well

[ Parent ]
Also Bunning, Bond, Gregg, Voinovich!
Though of course we'd have had a better chance in Kentucky had Bunning not decided to retire.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Aren't you exaggerating the closeness of the 2008 election a bit?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to recall the spread was about 5 points - pretty close, but not really "almost" a victory for Ketner.

That said, the Democrats definitely need to compete with some seriousness for this open seat.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


Hey pan
Here are the 2008 results:
Henry E Brown Jr (REP)
WINNER
51.93% 177,540
Linda Ketner (DEM)
47.89% 163,724

Close but not really close :)

2010 Race Tracker Wiki


[ Parent ]
52-48 is close in my book eom


[ Parent ]
Mine too.
See Calvert, Ken.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
52-48 is real close for a re-election
  Most incumbents get re-elected with over 60% of the vote. For an established incumbent to get that slim a victory is something that might cause them to reconsider whether it is worth going through again. The temptation to go out on top  has got to be there especially for an older guy in the minority party who isn't going to be able to do much in the House. It makes good sense for him to retire.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
Ketner and Inglis
Could this bring Ketner back into the race? I'm still extremely surprised how well she did in 2008 based on the fact that she was a lesbian. I guess an increased AA voter turnout would help any Dem.

Also would this help persuade Rep.Inglis to retire b/c of all his primary opponents who think he is not wingnut enough?  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  


Both very good questions
And also will more Repubs facing potentially horrendous Primaries also retire eg Miller in CA-42, Bonner in AL-01, Broun in GA-10 (unlikely), Souder in IN-03, Burton in IN-05, McHenry in NC-10, Schmidt in OH-02 (unlikely), Conaway in TX-11, Granger in TX-12, Paul in TX-14 (very unlikely), Sessions in TX-32.

These repubs all have multiple Primary Challengers!

2010 Race Tracker Wiki


[ Parent ]
NC-10?
Are there really any nutcases on the right unhappy with McHenry? I am not sure what more he can do to be an idiot.

[ Parent ]
I don't want Inglis to retire
If he retires, from everything I know of that Greenville-based district, he would be substituted for by an extremist with no politically redeeming qualities. Right now, Inglis is about the best you'll get out of that district, and he is in serious danger of being bested by someone further to the right in a primary.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
As an Inglis constiuent ...
.... I completely concur.  The GOP will hold this seat regardless, Inglis is the best of the bunch by far.  

It will be interesting to see what Ketner will do.  She declined to run again, but this certainly changes things.  Unfortunately, Obama is unpopular statewide, so it might not be enough to convince her to jump in.  


[ Parent ]
You have an open primary in SC, right?
Do you think a lot of Dems and left-leaning indies will vote in the GOP primary to defend Inglis?

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Yes. It is and they will ...
... and it may be what saves him. It will be interesting to see if a Dem even runs in the 4th.  If not, that makes it all the more easier for Inglis. Of course, if only ONE D candidate runs, it's still pretty easy, as there would be no competing primary.

On the other hand there WILL be a Democratic primary for Governor, so that hurts Inglis. Most local primaries are GOP however, so that will help to convince Democrats to vote in the GOP primary as well.  

Also, if the GOP governor's primary gets 'hot', that too would encourage Dems to cross over.  

At this point, no one has been mentioned as a potential candidate for the Democrats for the 4th CD.  

I will vote for Inglis in the GOP primary regardless.      


[ Parent ]
Despite the normal craziness down thread
It's important to support Republicans like Inglis where we can find them for many reasons, but most clear reason eludes those who want to roast on a stick blue dogs who are critical of a Dem proposal... when a Rep breaks ranks, especially on the issue of merely being polite and decent, this helps us.

As does having Reps waste money in deep red districts where we waste not a dime.

I want to see Inglis, Tom Petri in Wisconsin and Mary Bono Mack in california representing very deep red districts post-reapportionment... and having wingnuts spend their pennies attacking them.


[ Parent ]
I wouldn't mind an extremist
representing the GOP in districts like this.  Politically, it helps us by painting the entire GOP as a bunch of Southern based extremists, including fundamentalists and racists.

They deserve the Jim DeMints that they elect, at least DeMint is honest about his intentions, and is consistent in anti-government stance, in particular, he is also against farm subsidies, pork and entitlements which greatly help rural Southern whites, and not just against social spending which is perceived to help poor blacks.

That said, I would vote for Inglis in this district if I lived there, because I feel he is a fundamentally decent person.  In particular, I really respect his stance in the 1990s that he would not engage in any race-baiting of any kind, and made it very clear that the Confederate flag should come down.


[ Parent ]
Can you name elected members of the GOP who can be depicted as racists?
you say
Politically, it helps us by painting the entire GOP as a bunch of Southern based extremists, including fundamentalists and racists.

Given the current media -- mainstream and online, I don't believe there is any elected member of the GOP who can be depicted as a racist --

at least not in a way that is believed by a majority of the American people.

So I ask - please name elected members of the GOP who can be depicted as racists.


[ Parent ]
Jefferson B Sessions
look up his history.

Lynn Westmoreland- called Obama "uppity" and voted against Voting Rights Act.

Any of the Southern senators who attacked Sonia Sotomayor in the lines that Rush Limbaugh discussed her.

Any number of Southerners when talking about illegal immigration, who use politically incorrect language.

And there is always the approach of tying Limbaugh, Beck, Hannity, etc, to the GOP.  

This really is not that hard to do.  It is nasty politics  but it can be done, and needs to be done.


[ Parent ]
And you don't need this
Given the current media -- mainstream and online, I don't believe there is any elected member of the GOP who can be depicted as a racist --

at least not in a way that is believed by a majority of the American people.

If you can convince blacks and Hispanics that the GOP is a racist party who hates their guts, you will have blocked any GOP advance to those groups for generations.


[ Parent ]
I think you do need the mainstream media
I'm guessing, but given socio-economic differences, I think  it's reasonable to suggest that African Americans and Hispanics have less Internet access - and therefore are even less likely to read blogs, etc.

AFAIK, that's the only area where Sessions & Westmoreland (for the few who know Lynn) have been depicted as racists.

If even George W Bush can make the progress that he did with Hispanics, I wouldn't discount GOP abilities to make progress with Hispanics again.


[ Parent ]
Bush didn't have to deal
with the anti-immigrant racists that we have today in these teabaggers.  No Republican who is seriously running for President can avoid taking a strong anti-immigrant position.  
McCain was the last hurrah for the sane wing on this issue.  And he was hated by much of the activist right-wing for it.  And it is easy to portray these guys as racists, you just have to display a GOP debate.

Secondly, people like Rush Limbaugh do the work for you.  R2000's poll had the GOP's approval among Hispanics in the single digits.  I think the message is already getting though, and the Dems only need to ramp it up every time you talk to Hispanic groups.  

When any major Democrat (other than Obama) goes to a black and Hispanic group, don't just talk about what we will do, but mention that the GOP are anti-immigrant racists.  Do it over and over again, and make the GOP angrily deny it. The more times that they have to do so, the more likely that it will get media attention.

As far as Hispanics (blacks matter less here because they are already heavily Democratic), you have Univision and other Hispanic broadcasts to run your Spanish language ads.  


[ Parent ]
And you will never know if it works
unless you try.  I think it is a much better long term strategy to paint the GOP as racist extremists than to just bring up our own accomplishments to minority groups.  Blacks aren't voting 90-95% Democratic because the Dems passed the civil rights act, they are voting 90% Democratic because they see the GOP as a bigoted party dominated by racists who don't give a shit about them.  

[ Parent ]
Whoa
"Blacks aren't voting 90-95% Democratic because the Dems passed the civil rights act, they are voting 90% Democratic because they see the GOP as a bigoted party dominated by racists who don't give a shit about them."

Please tell me you can back this up? Do you really believe that about the civil rights act?

I do find it funny though that you're screaming out how racist the GOP is and how the party is bigoted, yet you've said yourself on numerous occasions that you'd support different GOP candidates.......


[ Parent ]
I am not the issue here
I do find it funny though that you're screaming out how racist the GOP is and how the party is bigoted, yet you've said yourself on numerous occasions that you'd support different GOP candidates.......

Winning elections and obtaining a progressive majority is.  And occasionally, supporting a Republican will further than goal, and I will do it.

But if you want to defend the GOP and wingnuts, which you have done on many occasions, that's your problem.  


[ Parent ]
Ok
I'll repeat the question since you're so fond of throwing out numbers and generalizations:

"Blacks aren't voting 90-95% Democratic because the Dems passed the civil rights act, they are voting 90% Democratic because they see the GOP as a bigoted party dominated by racists who don't give a shit about them."

Please tell me you can back this up? Do you really believe that about the civil rights act?  


[ Parent ]
Further discussion on this is really off topic
So this is the last post I will write here on this.  And I don't see why what I said is even an iota controversial, and I doubt that the majority of people here would either.  

But Ken Mehlman apologized for the Southern Strategy to the NAACP in 2005.  He wouldn't have done that if the GOP didn't have a very serious image problem among blacks.

Blacks remember that the Dems passed the civil rights act, yes, but they remember how the GOP has repeatedly used them as a political punching bag, especially with regard to affirmative action.  They know what "law and order", "states rights", and "welfare queen" were codewords for.  And this kind of campaigning, which was so effective in winning over economically populist Democrats, both in the South and among older "white ethnics", for Nixon, Reagan, and Bush in the 1970s and 1980s has come home to roost in these very solid Democratic majorities from blacks.


[ Parent ]
"George Bush doesnt care about black people."
I think Jsmith's point only rings true for part of the black community.  You've got one generation of voters who were alive and kicking when the Civil Rights Act passed, and then a whole other generation who like Kayne, just think the GOP doesnt give a shit about them.  The Civil Rights Act and desegregation locked in the older generations for the Democrats, Hurricane Katrina and President Obama will lock in the younger ones.

[ Parent ]
Interesting Book
 I forgot the title, I think it was Party Crashers about how the hip hop generation is not locked by the Democratic party. Alot of the young African American voters want the Democrats to fight for their votes instead of taking them for granted. When the book was written, 30% of young African Americans were registered independents.

This book was written during the primaries and Obama probably helped keep young African Americans voting Democratic. Still, they may have second thoughts for a local Republican candidate who reaches out to the African American community (this could work in an area where there are large numbers of African Americans and not many racists.) Steele won 24% of the African American vote in 2006 so he was able to sway some African American voters.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
And what have you done to try it?
Per http://www.swingstateproject.c... , you've said

I don't generally debate with Southern rural conservatives.  They generally aren't worth my time.

which suggests that you're unwilling to try it yourself.

I suggest that it is not possible to call someone a racist, in a manner credible to swing voters, unless you do it directly to their faces (or directly to their user accounts online).


[ Parent ]
I strongly disagree
I suggest that it is not possible to call someone a racist, in a manner credible to swing voters, unless you do it directly to their faces (or directly to their user accounts online).

with this sentiment.  Beyond that, it is off-topic for this site, it has nothing to do with a strategy for winning elections in the future. OTOH, the idea of painting the GOP as racists as a strategy to win elections is on topic.

I suggest that it is not possible to call someone a racist, in a manner credible to swing voters, unless you do it directly to their faces (or directly to their user accounts online).

Off topic and completely wrong.


[ Parent ]
DavidNYC, is JSmith a moderator of this site?
AFAIK, JSmith, you are not a moderator here.

JSmith, I take issue with your strategy for winning elections against the GOP - namely calling them racists.

AFAIK, electoral strategy is germane to this site, but if DavidNYC, Crisunity, or JamesL tells me otherwise, I'll stop the discussion here.

I suggest what happens on a personal level when one interacts with right-wingers is often consistent with what happens on a national level.

I'm hoping that explains why such a confrontational strategy is not electorally viable - if not to JSmith, then to others here.


[ Parent ]
I think running a "you're racist" campaign
Would be very bad amongst white moderate voters.  White people are extremely touchy and turned off by such rhetoric.  The evidence is never solid enough and is mainly based on hearsay or stories from way back when.  Did Webb ever outwardly call Allen a racist in the 06 VA-Sen race?

We already have Paterson and Co. playing the race card, the CBC calling Pelosi and Co. racist for wanting to strip Jefferson of his committee assignments prior to the 2006 elections, the Obama misstep with the guy from Boston, TN-09 with racism and anti-semitism, and probably others.  It goes both ways in that the GOP using many racist lingo but the AA politicians using "racism" to build fear for a position.

So what will happen is that the white community would view it as black people screaming "hate crime" for no good reason and many in the black and hispanic community would go, duh we've known that all along.  No point in hurting ourselves with voters we need only to reaffirm the beliefs of voters we already have.

(I am obviously over-generalizing my point a bit.)


[ Parent ]
Fantasy
"in particular, he is also against farm subsidies, pork and entitlements which greatly help rural Southern whites, and not just against social spending which is perceived to help poor blacks. "

If you had any clue of the rural South like you claim, maybe you'd know that farm subsidies and earmarks benefit blacks as well. I feel like I'm discussing politics with a wall, but do your research man, seriously.

Your fantasy world and reality are two entirely different things.


[ Parent ]
A fundamentalist could probably win a crowded primary
In Brown's district...but not in a competitive 1 on 1. As this is your typical 'Country Club Republican' district. From what ive gathered, anyway.  

[ Parent ]
This district does not respond well to Fundamentalists...
... David Beasley's unsuccessful bid for a second term as Governor is proof of that. The 1st is more middle class economic conservative than socially conservative.

Since a runoff is required, there is no way a fundie can win by a small plurality.

However, there could be SO many candidates in the primary, that BOTH runoff nominees are fundamentalists.  That is very unlikely though.  


[ Parent ]
you lie!!
wait wrong guy. carry on

Nice One
I wouldn't preferred it to be that idiot Wilson who was retiring, but after saying that and getting a shitload of donations coming his way from teabaggers, I guess he decided his career just got a second wind.

As for Brown, not surprising since he'll be 75 this year.


[ Parent ]
Excellent
Come on Bill Young, you know you want to.

I've been thinking a lot
about that one, as it is in my backyard.

I expect Charlie Justice to stay in even if Young announces a run, but there is very little chance of him beating Young unless the environment dramatically changes.  An open seat race for Justice would be a tossup, as there are strong benches on both sides in this swing district.

If he bailed, Justice would have a challenge running for re-election to the State Senate, as former Senate majority leader Jack Latvala is running for the seat.  

My prediction is that Young runs and beats Justice by 15% or so, and we also lose the State Senate seat.  I hope I'm wrong on both fronts.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
In FL-10
The C.W. is never wrong!

[ Parent ]
Well
C.W. is wrong on most everything, but the son-of-a-gun just never loses.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Playing devils advocate....
Doesn't this potentially make this seat harder for Dems to win? I didn't follow this race that closely, but I thought Brown had some weaknesses in 2008

He did...
.... your point is well taken.  Also, with Brown still in it, the GOP primary might have been much nastier.  

On a side note, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who is running for Governor,COULD switch to this race.  Just conjucture at this point though.  


[ Parent ]
Andre Bauer
That would put him in a match-up with the brother of the Campbell he beat in '06, right? That could be a fun race.

[ Parent ]
Also fun: Bauer-Ketner
Although I think Ketner has ruled out a run in 2010 (although she did that way back in April and could now reconsider), a Bauer-Ketner race would be awesome--and the gayest thing in South Carolina politics since Lindsey Graham's last race. ...Especially since Ketner basically outed Bauer to Firedoglake:

http://www.q-notes.com/2710/fo...

I do think Bauer has a much better shot of winning a crowded congressional primary than the gubernatorial one.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Too bad Ketner didn't win in 2008
She was a Democrat worth fighting for, and it would have been much easier to hold this metro district than to win an open seat here.

hahahahahahaha
Henry Brown isn't the only one calling it quits today.  So is Parker Griffith's entire staff, in protest of his switch to the Republican party.

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


Saw it, lol'd
It is funny to imagine Griffith running around his office with no one there to tell him what to do/where to be.what a bill is or even answer the phone calls for him.

It's just one big pile of sad sack

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
Apparently
he still has his scheduler Leigh Pettis.  Now would be the time for her to demand a raise!!!  :-)

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
It's funny but no big deal......
Griffith will have a new GOP staff in short order.  There are lots of unemployed Repub Hill staffers floating around after the previous couple elections.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Just like a Psychic hotline
We believe or don't believe as we see fit. :)

[ Parent ]
Whoa
Katon "I became a Republican after I was forced to interact with brown people" Dawson might be back on the political scene? Delicious.

As for Ketner, I know she ruled out a candidacy last Spring, but check out her website. She is clearly still very interested in politics. Maybe she wasn't planning to run this cycle, but maybe she can be convinced.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


Gotta say...
The potential Republican primary field could be a chip off the old block! Seriously, is Chip a common name in SC or something? I guess I can see rich white country clubbers in this district naming their kid 'Chip'. Definitely sounds like a preppy rich kid name.

Prediction: 9 Way Car Wreck, CfG Wins....
This one probably ends up as one of those everybody and your sister deals-think Idaho's 1st, where Bill Sali won a multi-candidate primary with a number in the 20s. Here's the take from a South Carolina political operative on the GOP field:

http://www.fitsnews.com/2010/0...

My guess is that the CfG gets behind Chip Campsen, a Sanford protege-it was once said that he would sell his own grandmother out for a tax cut. Campsen's just as bleeping nuts as Sali, so this could play to our advantage.

The South Carolina 1st is not Idaho either, and there is a Dem bench in the district with Leon Stavrinakis as the best choice. There's also Charleston Mayor Joe Riley, though he's on the old side (age 65), Linda Ketner will also undoubtedly take a second look at this one.  


SC has primary runoffs
so unless both of the top two finishers are complete nutbags, that won't happen.

[ Parent ]
True, but.....
That may be true, but guess who are the only folks who show up at the runoffs.....the nutbags.  

[ Parent ]
Not true...
... runoffs draw well as long as the races involved are not just low-level local stuff.  There will be a Governor's runoff plus CD, so there will be lots of interest and attention paid to it.  I wouldn't count on a oversized fundie turnout in the runoff.

[ Parent ]
Can we just ban the poster
who constantly brings race into the discussion whether it has anything to do with it or not?  It really gets tiresome and every time I read one of their posts it makes me want to bash my head against the wall?    

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2



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