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MI-03: Vern Ehlers to Retire

by: DavidNYC

Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 9:16 PM EST


Reid Wilson & Tim Sahd of the Hotline have been kings of the retirement beat, and they break the news on yet another:

Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-MI 03) will announce his retirement at a 10 a.m. presser tomorrow morning, according to a MI-based source.

A press release from Ehler's office says the presser "follow[s] speculation about his plans to continue serving" in the House. Several GOP sources tell Hotline OnCall his wife had a heart attack last week, further lending credence to speculation he will step aside.

The 2/10 announcement will come a day after state Rep. Justin Amash (R) announced a primary challenge to Ehlers.

Ehlers was not on our watch list, but at age 76, this move isn't terribly surprising. Though this is, as the Hotline notes, the 17th GOP open seat, it's probably not fertile territory for Dems. Obama did move the needle enormously here, turning a 59-40 Bush district into a district McCain won by just 49.4-48.8. But it's growing harder and harder to see Obama's performance in seats like this as anything but a high-water mark, especially since McCain pulled out of Michigan at the end but Obama kept pushing hard. In an environment like this one, an R+6 seat is going to be a very tough nut to crack.

That said, there may yet be a GOP free-for-all here, given that Amash is all of 29 years old and is only serving his first term in the legislature. (Apparently, state Sen. Bill Hardiman is said to be interested.) No Dems have announced yet, but we'll keep you posted.
DavidNYC :: MI-03: Vern Ehlers to Retire
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MI-03: Vern Ehlers to Retire | 22 comments
McCain pulling out of Michigan.
We discount the numbers in this district for that reason.  I had the same thought myself.  However, McCain pulled out because he wasn't getting anywhere in Michigan.  So, I don't think those numbers can be completely discounted.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Not completely
But I think there is a definite discount. McCain pulled out with a month still left to go. Kerry won Michigan by 4, Obama by 16. Given that he went up nationwide by "only" five points over Kerry, I have to believe his surge in Michigan was due at least in part to the fact that he had the airwaves to himself for all of October, plus the fact that (at least some) people tend to react negatively to the news that a candidate is deliberately abandoning their state.
[ Parent ]
Didn't he basically tell the auto industry "drop dead"?
That couldn't have helped.
[ Parent ]
Hmm
I definitely see your point, as I would be frustrated that a candidate would abandon my state. Still, many states were no focused on during the election, and radical electoral shifts were observed. For example, Arkansas was won by Bush by 9, whereas McCain won it by 20. Of course there are plenty of reasons why this occurred--I would imagine Obama did not play well to the social conservatives there, for example--but it's an example of a state that was not contested but shifted dramatically.

Granted, there was no high profile pull out, but I think we should give credit to the people of Michigan for realizing that the policies of the Bush administration and Republicans significantly hurt their industrial base. I think this was the most important factor. I do think Michigan will continue to stay blue--perhaps even get bluer as time goes on.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
Lets
just hope we can hold onto the Governorship which looks unlikely at the moment  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
The
best shot we have is if Joe Schwartz runs as a independent. He could split some of the moderate vote and angry independents who don't want to vote democrat or republican. He could possibly do what Dagget was supposed to do in New Jersey.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
That's a good point about Arkansas
But as you suggest, I think you can point to different reasons for each state's shift. I do think that Obama probably still would have outperformed his nationwide gain over Kerry in MI had McCain not pulled out, but I don't think it would have been a 16-17 point win - maybe more like 12 or so.

Obviously, these numbers are just speculation, but my only point is that I think Obama's numbers in Michigan were a Democratic high-water mark - I think the McCain dropout definitely did have some effect. Anyhow, if 2012 is anything like a normal election, we'll have a good test case!

[ Parent ]
Compare it to Pennsylvania
Kerry won it by 3 and Obama by 11. And that was McCain's final stand remember. So we are probably looking at somewhere in the middle, 13-15 points. Nevertheless, Dems need to find some offense somewhere and this seems as good a place as any. Remember, in the one poll out of the R+6 FL-12 Lori Edwards was ahead.
[ Parent ]
This is the old Gerald Ford district,
and the only Democrat to win here in the last one hundred years is Richard Vander Veen, Ford's replacement when Ford was appointed Vice President.  He was able to accomplish this feat only because Watergate.
List of state reps/sens. living in the district
I dont know how likely any of them is to run but here is a list. And I didnt include anyone at least 70 years old come Nov:
GOP
Sen. Bill Hardiman. Age: 62. Home: Kentwood. First elected to state Senate in 02. African American. Assembly of God member. If he runs and wins he could be the only Republican African American in Congress.
Sen. Mark Jansen. Age: 50. Home: Grand Rapids. First elected to state Senate in 06. State Rep. from 96-02.
Rep. Kevin Green. Age: 39. Home: Wyoming. First elected to state House in 04.
Rep. Dave Hildebrand. Age: 36. Home: Lowell. First elected to state House in 04. Minority Floor Leader. Catholic.
Rep. Tom Pearce. Age: 53. Home: Rockford. First elected to state House in 04. Religion: Non-denominational.
Justin Amash. Age: 29. Home: Cascade. First elected to state House in 08. Announced a primary challenge to Ehlers a day before he retired...so Im guessing he'll still run.
Rep. Brian Calley. Age: 32. Home: Portland. First elected to state House in 07. Baptist.
Rep. Dave Agema. Age: 60. Home: Grandville. First elected to state House in 06. Protestant.

Dems
Rep. Robert Dean. Age: 57. Home: Grand Rapids. First elected to state House in 06, African American, pastor, ex-city commish.
Rep. Roy Schmidt? (not sure as i only see his home as Kent Co. and thats split between districts). First elected to state House in 08.

I see lots of young members of the state legislature
Living in the district. I wonder how many are ambitious. And i couldnt find any over 70. Im guessing that the MI Legislature has term-limits and so its members are relatively young. Some of the members who live in this district live in the outskirts of the district and may not exactly have much of a base during a primary. Im guessing most of them will choose not to run. Its conceivable that someone who lives outside the district could run if their own legislative district includes territory thats in MI-3.

Also, i just looked at the map of Roy Schmidt (D)'s district and it definitely seems like he lives in MI-3. And in the Grand Rapids area.

[ Parent ]
Michigan has the most extreme term limits in the country
Members can serve 6 years in the House and 8 in the Senate.
[ Parent ]
Term Limits
Yeah the term limits here are a joke. Someone finally learns how things work and they are term limited. It's also costing the state tens of thousands of dollars because the elected officials have life time benefits and no term limits increases turnover.

It also kills the bench strength on both sides.

[ Parent ]
Tell all that...
To the morons and low infomation voters who haven't got a clue how government functions. They think term limits are the greatest things ever to provide a check on the corrupt pigs that run the government. Seriously try and debate them, educate them a bit.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Dem bench looks very thin here.
Any Dem mayors?
Yeah it does look thin
But its the 'Grand Rapids district' so its to be expected. Im sure the committees in charge of funding the race would much prefer someone who can spend out of their own pocket as this wont be a race high on their priority list. Maybe theres a wealthy businessman who will run for Team Blue.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, an unknown rich businessman-type,
like for instance, NY-20's Murphy or NY-23's Owens.
Things turned out nicely for us in those two special elections last year.
[ Parent ]
Grand Rapids dominates the district
The mayor of Grand Rapids (pop. 193,000), which dominates the district, is George Heartwell, 60, who has to be a Democrat. He seems pretty darn progressive--he's all green jobs and education and diversity in his public speeches and such. But he also, interestingly, just proposed a consolidated local government plan:

http://www.mlive.com/opinion/g...

And won a lot of praise for at least suggesting it, it seems.

All the county elected officials are Republicans, but a Kent County Commissioner (GR's county) could be another option--there are 19 of them, of whom 8 are Democrats, and most look young enough that they could run and hang around for awhile if they won.

Bottom line: Without a legislative bench, I'd be hard-pressed to think of an elective office that would be more prominent than Heartwell's.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Thin Bench
It's think for 2 reasons.

1. Democrats have stupidly given up on this region and quit fighting for it. They fought in the 7th (R+2) and the 9th (D+2) but conceded the 4th (R+3), 6th (Even), 8th (R+2), and the 11th (Even) and quit fighting altogether in the 2nd (R+7), 3rd (R+6) and 10th (R+5).

2. The ridiculous term limits forces such high turnover than almost everyone is recently elected and nobody knows who represents them since it changes every 6 years. It's amazing short when you consider the term limits in the Michigan House equal 1 US Senate term.

[ Parent ]
Wow
Wow I am brilliant.

I meant to start my comment by saying I think it's for 2 reasons.

[ Parent ]
A very solid Republican district
on Congressional and (with few exceptions) Legislative level despite Obama's performance in 2008. So, new Congressman will almost assuredly (especially in present political climate) be a Republican and substantially more conservative then generally moderate (though pro-life) Ehlers
The only way for a Dem to win in western Michigan
would be if redistricting combined Grand Rapids in MI-03 and Muskegon County in MI-02.
MI-03: Vern Ehlers to Retire | 22 comments

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