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FL-13: Buchanan Staying Put

by: James L.

Tue May 12, 2009 at 11:40 AM EDT


With Florida Gov. Charlie Crist announcing his candidacy for the U.S. Senate today, a lot of dominoes are set to fall in Florida over the coming weeks as lower-level officeholders seek to move up a rung or two on the good ol' electoral ladder. One such drone who won't be looking for a promotion is one Vernon G. Buchanan, according to the Bradenton Herald:

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's entry into the 2010 Senate race has prompted U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan to drop his senatorial aspirations and declare that he will seek re-election to his House seat instead.

"Representing Florida's 13th district in the U.S. House is an honor and a privilege," Buchanan said in a news release issued today. "I look forward to the opportunity to continue serving the people."

Buchanan's R-tilting seat likely would have hosted a competitive race without Buchanan on the ticket, but Democrats will have a tough time finding anyone of note to run against Vern now. One candidate who had been eyeing the race with the DCCC's encouragement, state Rep. Keith Fitzgerald, recently said that he would probably not run for the seat if Buchanan didn't scram.
James L. :: FL-13: Buchanan Staying Put
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FL-13: Buchanan Staying Put | 32 comments
Is Vern
worse than, on par with, or better than his district?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
On par I'd say
He's broken with republican leadership on a few issues.  Not a moderate, but not a far-right nutcase either.
[ Parent ]
He's still a crook.
[ Parent ]
Charlie Cook updates his Florida ratings
FLORIDA | Governor: Lean Republican to Toss Up (5/12/09)
FLORIDA | Senate: Toss Up to Lean Republican (5/12/09)

Both make sense.  I'd put the Senate race somewhere between Lean R and Likely R and the FL Governor's race at Tossup, but closer to Lean D assuming Sink runs.  Hopefully McCollum jumps in the Governor's race on the Repub side.  He'd be the easiest guy to beat.

Why is McCollum the easiest?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
He's a party hack
A far-right conservative who has had many clashes with more moderate members of his party.  Especially with Governor Crist over issues like global warming, which Crist takes seriously.  McCollum has run for many statewide offices and always lost, except for the 2006 AG race he won because his opponent was god aweful.  Wouldn't surprise me at all if Sink beat McCollum by double-digits in a general election.
[ Parent ]
he narrowly lost to Bill Nelson in 2000
but really, he's so far right, he's a hero to Florida Conservatives and would probably easily carry the banner, even over someone like Representative Connie Mack.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Probably will
The conservatives love him and many regret electing Mel Martinez over him in 2004.  As far as him losing no Bill Nelson narrowly goes.  Well, Nelson ain't the most exciting guy in the world.  Nelson still beat him 51-46 in 2000, a year where Dems overall did poorly in Florida.
[ Parent ]
really?
i thought dems did well that year. I like Bill Nelson, he told me about "the candy" drawer in the secretary's desk in the U.S. senate and he was a funny guy about his sweet tooth,, while he was presiding he used to sit back and suck on peppermints and selzter water lol.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
No
Democrats lost 5 state House seats and 1 state Senate seats in 2000.  They did poorly on at the state and local level.
[ Parent ]
I hope you guys in Florida are getting ready for the ground game.
With Crist running for the senate a lot of statewide offices are going to open up and we could win everything from the governorship and Lt. Gov (do they run on a ticket in Florida?) to the Attorney General post on down.  We'll also have to work to keep the state CFO post once Alex Sink runs for Governor.  There could well be more-time will tell, and we'd better be ready for some hard work.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
Would it be viable for Democrats to tie themselves to Crist (assuming he survives the primary)?
a la "Obama-Terry voters"?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Possibly
I do suspect that if McCollum gets the repub nomination for Governor Crist may not even endorse him.  They really dislike each other.
[ Parent ]
I hope Jim Davis runs for CFO
he did decent against Crist in 2006 despite the stupid big sugar funded primary challenge.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
We should have a good slate of FL statewide candidates in 2010
My guess is the early favorites for party nominations are:
Governor - Current CFO Alex Sink
Attorney General - State Senator Dave Aronberg
Ag. Commissioner - St. Rep Rick Minton
CFO - Still unsure who our candidates here would be
[ Parent ]
Why is minton a strong candidate?
does he have rural dixiecrat appeal? What about Aronberg, where's he from?

I think Jim Davis should run for CFO.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Davis would be great for CFO
Aronberg is from Greenacres, which is in Palm Beach.  Ya, I know it's a deep blue haven, but he has a great profile for the job.

EDUCATION: Harvard University: B.A., 1993; J.D., 1996.

OCCUPATION: Attorney.

LEGISLATIVE SERVICE: Elected to the Senate in 2002.

OTHER PUBLIC SERVICE: Assistant Attorney General, Economic Crimes Division, 2001-2002, 1999-2000; Special Assistant to the Secretary of the U.S. Treasury Department, 2001-2002.

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/Ca...

Minton is from Fort Pierce and does appear to have some Dixiecrat rural appeal.
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/Ca...


[ Parent ]
Greenacres??
is that the same Green Acres thats the 'place to be'?  
[ Parent ]
Or maybe
That wasnt the name of the town they lived in in the old tv show. But im sure its better than the fictional Dumpwater, FL from that old Married...with Children episode.
[ Parent ]
The Gov. race is more important
Redistricting, redistricting.  Who knows how many House seats could be the difference if a Democrat is able to block Republican reapportionment.
At WORST
Grayson (FL-08), Kosmas (FL-24), Klein (FL-22) and possibly Boyd (FL-02) would get much more favorable districts in addition to the new district being a tossup/leans D seat.  That's probably the worst we'd get with a Dem Governor in office.  It's possible we could get an even better deal.  It might force repubs to concede FL-10 since it's blueing anyway and Young is close to retirement.
[ Parent ]
I can see FL-10 getting redone so we can win it
sen. Justice will give it a hell of a run in 2010, maybe win, maybe force Young to retire, maybe get his ass kicked.  But come redistricting, they've got to force him to retire.

Where will the new seat be ChadinFL?  Orlando area?  (I-8 corridor right?)

[ Parent ]
More than one
Can't find a link but I'm sure the current projection is for at least two new seats in Florida and Arizona with as many as four in Texas.
[ Parent ]
No
Current projection is one seat for Florida thanks to the housing bubble.
[ Parent ]
Have you got a link?

[ Parent ]
Orlando area
The new seat is almost certain to be in the Orlando area.  I believe it was nathaniel who drew a projected 2012 map and had the new district in the southern suburbs or Orlando, stretching into Osceola and a few more rural areas.  I'd agree that is the most likely place for a new seat.  Basically it would start off in 2012 as a swing seat, but quickly trend Democratic much in the way FL-08 has.  Osceola County is a fast growing county and is already majority Hispanic.  The future for this new seat will be a very heavily Hispanic population that favors a Democrat.
[ Parent ]
a tallahase-Gainesville
seat would be nicely Democratic leaning.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
FL-03
What would that do to Corrine Brown's seat.  Presumably it's VRA protected and losing much of Gainesville would be a huge pain.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Assuming the Supreme Court doesn't screw it up...
[ Parent ]
The district is alread only 49% AA
Boosting it over 50% in 2012 may not even be possible.  Most of the AA population in the district is in Jacksonville anyway.
[ Parent ]
Street-by-street gerrymandering here we come!


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Who is the backup in the event Sink says no?

FL-13: Buchanan Staying Put | 32 comments

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