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2010 House Open Seat Watch (1/21/10)

by: James L.

Thu Jan 21, 2010 at 8:04 AM EST


It's been over two months since we last took stock of the open seat situation in the House, and a lot has happened since then. So, once again, our crack team of open seat forensic analysts down at SSP Labs have put together a new edition of the 2010 House Open Seat Watch.

As always, we've compiled three separate lists: one of confirmed vacancies/retirements, another of potential open seats, and a third - available below the fold - of names that have dropped off the watch list. As always, please note that "age" in our charts reflects the incumbent's age on election day, 2010. Blue boxes indicate a new entry (or an incumbent who has been shuffled between categories). All tables are sortable - just click on any column header to sort.

Definite Retirements/Vacancies:

District Incumbent Party PVI Notes
AL-07 Artur Davis D D+18 Running for Governor
AR-02 Vic Snyder D R+5 Retiring
AZ-03 John Shadegg R R+9 Retiring
CA-19 George Radanovich R R+9 Retiring
DE-AL Mike Castle R D+7 Running for Senate
FL-12 Adam Putnam R R+6 Running for Ag Comm'r
FL-17 Kendrick Meek D D+34 Running for Senate
FL-19 Robert Wexler D D+15 Resigned to join non-profit
GA-09 Nathan Deal R R+28 Running for Governor
HI-01 Neil Abercrombie D D+11 Running for Governor (Resigning)
IL-10 Mark Kirk R D+6 Running for Senate
KS-01 Jerry Moran R R+23 Running for Senate
KS-03 Dennis Moore D R+3 Retiring
KS-04 Todd Tiahrt R R+14 Running for Senate
LA-03 Charlie Melancon D R+12 Running for Senate
MI-02 Peter Hoekstra R R+7 Running for Governor
MO-07 Roy Blunt R R+17 Running for Senate
NH-02 Paul Hodes D D+3 Running for Senate
OK-05 Mary Fallin R R+13 Running for Governor
PA-07 Joe Sestak D D+3 Running for Senate
SC-01 Henry Brown R R+10 Retiring
SC-03 Gresham Barrett R R+17 Running for Governor
TN-03 Zach Wamp R R+13 Running for Governor
TN-06 Bart Gordon D R+13 Retiring
TN-08 John Tanner D R+6 Retiring
WA-03 Brian Baird D D+0 Retiring

We've got eight new additions to our big board of House retirements and vacancies, five of them Democratic, and three Republican. We've also had one subtraction, from GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach -- although since he still technically has a primary challenger, he's staying on the watch list for now.

What's notable is that, just two months ago, we had zero "true" retirements (as opposed to attempts to seek higher office), and now we have exactly eight members saying goodbye to elected office in 2011.  Of the twelve Democratic-held open seats, Republicans have a chance of winning all but AL-07, FL-17, and FL-19. On the other hand, I think I count about two and a half legitimate pick-up opportunities for Democrats among the R-held seats up for grabs.

Meanwhile, eight new names are added to our watch list, and 11 have come off:

Potential Retirements/Vacancies:

District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AK-AL Don Young R R+13 77 Age/Legal issues
AL-05 Parker Griffith R R+12 68 Primary challenge
CA-36 Jane Harman D D+12 65 Scandal/Primary challenge
CA-42 Gary Miller R R+10 62 Primary challenge
CA-44 Ken Calvert R R+6 57 Primary challenge
FL-02 Allen Boyd D R+6 65 Primary challenge (Declined Senate run)
FL-10 Bill Young R R+1 79 Age/Strong challenge
GA-04 Hank Johnson D D+24 56 Primary challenge
IN-03 Mark Souder R R+14 60 Primary challenge
IN-06 Mike Pence R R+10 51 Possible Senate run
IN-05 Dan Burton R R+17 72 Primary challenge
MD-04 Donna Edwards D D+31 52 Possible primary challenge
MI-01 Bart Stupak D R+3 58 Unlikely gubernatorial run
MI-10 Candice Miller R R+5 56 Possible gubernatorial run
MI-12 Sander Levin D D+12 79 Age/Primary challenge
MI-13 Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick D D+31 65 Possible primary challenge
MN-06 Michele Bachmann R R+7 54 Possible gubernatorial run
NC-06 Howard Coble R R+18 79 Age
NC-10 Patrick McHenry R R+17 35 Primary challenge
NY-15 Charlie Rangel D D+41 80 Age/legal issues/possible primary
OR-04 Peter DeFazio D D+2 63 Possible gubernatorial run
PA-06 Jim Gerlach R D+4 55 Aborted gubernatorial bid/Primary challenge
PA-11 Paul Kanjorski D D+4 73 Primary challenge (won't retire)
PA-19 Todd Platts R R+12 48 Seeking GAO appointment/Primary challenge
SC-04 Bob Inglis R R+15 51 Primary challenge
TN-01 Phil Roe R R+21 65 Possible primary challenge
TN-09 Steve Cohen D D+23 61 Primary challenge
TX-03 Sam Johnson R R+14 80 Age
TX-04 Ralph Hall R R+21 87 Primary challenge (won't retire)
TX-06 Joe Barton R R+15 61 Possible Senate run
TX-18 Sheila Jackson-Lee D D+24 63 Primary challenge
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez D R+4 63 Primary challenge

A list of incumbents whose names we've removed from the Open Seat Watch is available below the fold.

James L. :: 2010 House Open Seat Watch (1/21/10)
Off the Watch List:

District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AL-01 Jo Bonner R R+14 50 Declined gubernatorial run
AL-02 Bobby Bright D R+16 58 Declined gubernatorial run
CA-24 Elton Gallegly R R+4 66 Won't retire
CA-31 Xavier Becerra D D+29 52 Declined USTR/Commerce Sec'y
CA-47 Loretta Sanchez D D+4 50 Declined gubernatorial run
CT-03 Rosa DeLauro D D+9 67 Considered for Labor Sec'y
FL-03 Corrine Brown D D+18 63 Declined Senate run
FL-13 Vern Buchanan R R+6 59 Declined Senate/gubernatorial run
FL-14 Connie Mack R R+11 43 Declined Senate run
FL-20 Debbie Wasserman Schultz D D+13 44 Declined Senate run
FL-21 Lincoln Diaz-Balart R R+5 56 Declined to seek Senate appointment
FL-22 Ron Klein D D+1 53 Declined Senate run
FL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart R R+5 49 Never expressed interest in Senate run
GA-01 Jack Kingston R R+16 55 Declined gubernatorial run
GA-03 Lynn Westmoreland R R+19 60 Declined gubernatorial run
GA-08 Jim Marshall D R+10 62 Never expressed interest in gubernatorial run
IA-01 Bruce Braley D D+5 53 Declined Senate run
IA-03 Leonard Boswell D D+1 76 Won't retire
IA-05 Steve King R R+9 61 Declined gubernatorial run
IL-07 Danny Davis D D+35 69 Withdrew from run for local office
IL-06 Peter Roskam R D+0 49 Declined Senate run
IL-09 Jan Schakowsky D D+20 66 Declined Senate run
IL-13 Judy Biggert R R+1 73 Won't retire
KY-01 Ed Whitfield R R+15 67 Declined Senate Run
KY-06 Ben Chandler D R+9 51 Declined Senate Run/won't retire
MD-06 Roscoe Bartlett R R+13 84 Won't retire
MI-08 Mike Rogers R R+2 47 Never expressed interest in gubernatorial run
MI-09 Gary Peters D D+2 51 Declined gubernatorial run
MO-01 Lacy Clay D D+27 54 Has not expressed interest in Senate run
MO-08 Jo Ann Emerson R R+15 60 Declined Senate run
NC-02 Bob Etheridge D R+2 69 Declined Senate run
NC-07 Mike McIntyre D R+5 54 Declined Senate run
NC-11 Heath Shuler D R+6 38 Declined Senate run
ND-AL Earl Pomeroy D R+10 58 Declined Senate run
NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter D R+0 57 Declined Senate run
NJ-02 Frank LoBiondo R D+1 64 Not tapped for Lt. Governor
NV-02 Dean Heller R R+5 50 Has not expressed interest in gube run/
Declined Senate run
NY-02 Steve Israel D D+4 52 Declined Senate run
NY-03 Peter King R R+4 66 Declined Senate run (Twice)
NY-04 Carolyn McCarthy D D+26 66 Declined Senate run
NY-09 Anthony Weiner D D+5 46 Declined mayoral run
NY-14 Carolyn Maloney D D+6 62 Declined Senate run
NY-16 Jose Serrano D D+41 67 Declined Senate run
MN-07 Collin Peterson D R+5 66 Won't retire
MO-04 Ike Skelton D R+14 78 Won't retire
OH-08 John Boehner R R+14 60 Averted primary challenge
OH-17 Tim Ryan D D+12 37 Declined Senate/Lt. Gov. run
OH-18 Zack Space D R+7 49 Declined Senate run
OK-04 Tom Cole R R+18 61 Declined gubernatorial run
OR-02 Greg Walden R R+10 53 Declined gubernatorial run
PA-08 Patrick Murphy D D+2 37 Never expressed interest in Senate run
PA-12 John Murtha D R+1 78 Won't retire
PA-13 Allyson Schwartz D D+7 62 Declined Senate run
PA-17 Tim Holden D R+6 64 Won't retire
SC-05 John Spratt D R+7 68 Won't retire
SD-AL Stephanie Herseth D R+9 39 Declined gubernatorial run
TN-04 Lincoln Davis D R+13 67 Declined gubernatorial run/won't retire
TX-10 Mike McCaul R R+10 48 Declined AG run
TX-17 Chet Edwards D R+20 58 Declined VA Sec'y/won't retire
UT-02 Jim Matheson D R+15 50 Declined gubernatorial run/won't retire
UT-03 Jason Chaffetz R R+26 43 Declined Senate run
VA-09 Rick Boucher D R+11 64 Won't retire
VA-10 Frank Wolf R R+2 71 Won't retire
WI-01 Paul Ryan R R+2 40 Declined Senate run/Declined gube run
WI-03 Ron Kind D D+4 47 Declined gubernatorial run

Resolved vacancies.

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I wonder if any Dems in the bottom table
Are reconsidering. Sigh.

Dana Rohrabacher
Only raised $4,700 in the fourth quarter (and spent over half of his cash on hand last year). That's usually an indicator that something's up.

Didn't he do the same last cycle?


[ Parent ]
Failure to pass healthcare is going to kill Democrats
They decided to take the option that simply was not an option.  They will probably lose the House again, like in 1994.  Why do Democrats keep trying this?  It is a loser every time.  Time to stop campaigning on this issue and start promising more realistic things.  

Frankly
I'm beginning to lose patience with the president. I cannot believe he didn't come out yesterday and demand the House pass the Senate bill.

[ Parent ]
Me too!
It almost seems like he is willfully trying to squander the Democratic majority and even his presidency.  An Republican agent provocateur could't do it better.  Unbelievable!

[ Parent ]
For doing what
Trying to pass his agenda and get healthcare done? Yoyr comment is completely absurd. The Senate bill seems the feesable one because we don't have 60 votes. God forbid he tries to get something. He's not screwing up the majority and his career by doing this, he's just trying to pass HCR so he can move on.

Republican agent provocateur could't do it better.

Wow, just wow. I seriously think you should take that comment and you should re-examine it because it's absurd.  


[ Parent ]
Maybe at this point
With us losing MA-Sen that's the only alternative of passing. Don't lose your patience with him, start doing it when he says we should scrap the whole damn thing altogether. If don't pass either bill were fucked and that's not happening so calm down. Jesus Fucking Christ already.

[ Parent ]
There going to pass healthcare
If they don't there screwed. Time to stop campaigning on this? NO. This is something the President promised during the campaign and he's delievering. Congress dropping this now would have drastic condequences. Believe it or not, this is realistic.

[ Parent ]
I'm starting to feel nervous about Boucher


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

I still say to keep an eye on John Linder (R-GA-07)
His fundraising is uncharacteristically off, like he's not trying anymore.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Possible GOP candidate for SC-1 (Henry Brown retiring)
State Rep Tim Scott is getting mentioned as possibly sitching from the Lt. Govenor's race to the SC-1 race.

This source is 'decent' but not totally reliable.  As an African-American, if Scott were to win the nomination and the general he would fill the void left by JC Watts' retirement years ago.

http://www.fitsnews.com/2010/0...

Also, Paul Thurmond, son of Strom, appears to be taking the plunge for this seat as well.    


MI-09 Gary Peters
He really isn't that old, is he???

2010 Demographics
Obama won because he turned out minorities, youth, and independents. Right now, the 2010 election is going to be older, whiter, and more conservative then 2008. If Obama doesn't activate his base and move left he's screwed.

No, the Republicans won't take the house. They might win 20 seats depending on retirements and GOTV efforts. The Dems have more money, they have the President, and they still have huge majorities in the House and Senate. If they move left and push through some populist bills (job creation) then the poll numbers will go up.

Does anyone know if the Dems have a good House candidate to replace Melancon?


I agree on your assessment
The President got to activate portions of his base to level the losses and when I mean portions I say no youth vote until '12. When healthcare passes that will help because that another part of his agenda acclompished. He's already been talking about populist measures such as the jobs bills and the bonus tax which will help alot and he's got nine months to do this which will be plenty of time to get this done. As for your assessment on the House I agree, losing 20-25 seats is what i'm seeing.

As for Melancon seat, don't bother it's gone.


[ Parent ]
I have a feeling Obama is already planning how to turn out the vote again
Although I dont know how easily getting the youth vote will be, we were in his pocket for 08 but we are probably just as disillusioned as everyone else.

He can do a lot to turn out the black vote, however.  Rahm already threatened Rep. Israel that Obama will personally door knock for Gillibrand if he had to so hopefully he'll be doing that for others.  Maybe him being a bit involved with getting Cal Cunningham in NC-Sen means he is already planning some big campaign stops in NC to turn out the black and youth vote there.

I remember seeing a video of a black college in TX marching down the highway to vote for Obama in the primary, now we just need him to be the one in front of those marchers leading them to their polling locations.  Do that in states with early voting and fuck, that could be a couple thousand EASY votes for several candidates up and down the ballot.


[ Parent ]
More then 20
My present estimate - about 25-30 in House and 5-6 in Senate with result: about 230-205 Democratic in House and 54-48 Democratic Senate.

And Obama will not turn left. At least - not liberal. Populist? Well, that mat be....


[ Parent ]
I think that's a fair estimate
I pegged it at about 25 in the House and 4-5 in the Senate. The President is sounding quite populist these days espically on the banks which will help him alot as well so it's already starting to make the shift which is good since we got nine months 'till election day.

[ Parent ]
What does R+1 mean for Murtha's party
He's even more Republican than the Republicans? Last time I looked he was still a Democrat...

R+1
It means based on the average of the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, his district votes about 1% more Republican then the country as a whole.

In the 2004 election the district voted about 3% more Democratic then the country as a whole.(Bush won nationwide 51-48, but Kerry won the district 51-48)

In the 2008 election the district voted about 4% more Republican then the country as a whole.(Obama won nationwide 53-46, but McCain won the district 50-49)

If you average D+3 and R+4 you get R+0.5, which rounds to R+1


[ Parent ]
Yep that's it
It's the PVI I believe it was created by Charlie Cook to average how Democratic or Republican a Congressional District is. It's quite helpful.

[ Parent ]
you didnt read his post very carefully
and just wasted some of your time.  ;)

[ Parent ]
He was referring to how
the column that should have displayed the party of the congressman instead displayed the PVI. A minor mistake, most of us know Jack Murtha is a Democrat. :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
PA-12
PA-12 is the only district in America to have voted for John Kerry in 2004 and then John McCain in 2008.

[ Parent ]

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