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OK-Gov, OK-05: Fallin to Run for Governor

by: James L.

Sat Feb 28, 2009 at 5:15 PM EST

The Oklahoman:

U.S. Rep. Mary Fallin answered the question most delegates to today's Oklahoma County Republican Convention wanted to know: She is running for governor in 2010.
When introducing Fallin, Pam Pollard, outgoing chairman of the Oklahoma County Republican Party, asked the two-term congresswoman whether she was forgoing a third term to seek the governor's office.
"I've had to make some pretty tough decisions on behalf of our nation the last couple of years, but when it comes to making decisions about the future of Oklahoma and the leadership of Oklahoma and the governor of Oklahoma, my answer is yes," Fallin said.

We have a decent Dem bench in Oklahoma, but the problem is that the two biggest guns, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmondson, are both seeking the Democratic gubernatorial nod. How rough could this one get?

On the House side of the equation, open seat fans might find Mary Fallin's vacant seat of mild interest. While most of the rest of Oklahoma swung hard to the right last year (especially Dan Boren's traditionally Democratic 2nd CD), the Oklahoma City-based 5th District actually lurched in the Democratic direction. While John Kerry got pounded by a 64-36 margin here in 2004, McCain's margin tightened to 59-41 over Obama while holding Bush-like margins nearly everywhere else in the state.

Crisitunity:

As a wise man once pointed out, they don't smoke marijuana in Muskogee. They don't take their trips on LSD. They don't burn their draft cards in the town square, because they like living right and being free.
Apparently the welcome mat's out for bong-toting peacenik acid freaks in Oklahoma City now, though.

So who might run here for Team Blue? Might Andrew Rice be interested in a race like this?

(H/T: trowaman)

James L. :: OK-Gov, OK-05: Fallin to Run for Governor

Tags: Mary Fallin, 2010 House Open Seat Watch, OK-Gov, OK-05, (All Tags)

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OK-Gov, OK-05: Fallin to Run for Governor | 20 comments

OK-05

I wonder if Brad Carson can move a few cities over and run for House there . . .

by: trowaman @ Sat Feb 28, 2009 at 16:30:38 PM CST

by: you @ soon

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Rice

Andrew Rice would be fantastic. Along with Scott Kleeb, he's one of the best Democratic candidates cursed with a crimson state. I'm all for him getting another chance.

Mad At Thad: A Blog Devoted To Ousting Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, Republican - Michigan

by: Sean Fitzpatrick @ Sat Feb 28, 2009 at 16:37:37 PM CST

by: you @ soon

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Rice could afford to..

run against Inhofe because he knew he could retreat to his safe senate seat that isn't up until 2010. Maybe when Rice is term-limited from the senate he'll take a stab at OKC's seat in Congress. That's a while down the road but Rice is very young.

I'm a Ralph Yarborough Democrat

by: dem4evr @ Sat Feb 28, 2009 at 16:43:18 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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Looks like he's only in his first term

So he won't be term-limited till 2014 in the state Senate it appears.

by: ChadInFL @ Sat Feb 28, 2009 at 16:55:51 PM CST

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This is still a tricky district..

Yes, they were the only district in my homestate to go significantly more Democratic in 2008 than 2004. Nevertheless, turning this seat blue will an extremely tough nut to crack. John Jarman, an extremely conservative Democrat who would eventually switch parties, was the last Democrat the 5th district sent to Washington.

Nevertheless, our bench in the district isn't terrible. Three other Democratic Senators besides Rice represent parts of the 5th: Debbie Leftwich, Constance Johnson, and minority leader Charlie Laster. Laster, however, represents Shawnee and apart of the district that is considerably more detached from Oklahoma City. I doubt he would run and if he did, it'd be a big mistake.

Of the Senators, Rice is probably the most likely to throw his hat in the ring but I'd still say he's very unlikely to run. He won't risk his safe seat in the Senate, which is up in 2010.

My choice? David Prater. He's the DA for Oklahoma County (Oklahoma City) who scored an upset against the Republican incumbent in2006. Seems very popular.

I'm a Ralph Yarborough Democrat

by: dem4evr @ Sat Feb 28, 2009 at 16:39:23 PM CST

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Cool

DAs are usually decent candidates, and if Prater already beat an incumbent, he's clearly got something.

Mad At Thad: A Blog Devoted To Ousting Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, Republican - Michigan

by: Sean Fitzpatrick @ Sat Feb 28, 2009 at 17:49:42 PM CST

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Rice

was the first name that came to mind. I think he lost this district by 10, but he's from here and could make a good race locally.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

by: nrafter530 @ Sat Feb 28, 2009 at 16:40:26 PM CST

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"So who might run here for Team Blue? Might Andrew Rice be interested in a race like this? "

Is that some kind of joke? We have two candidates who have won statewide on their own counts and you're throwing around a netroots candidate who got pulverised in a senate race in a Democratic year?

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sat Feb 28, 2009 at 17:25:42 PM CST

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Not a Democratic year in Oklahoma..

Like we've alluded to upthread, OK-5 was the only district where Obama significantly improved over Kerry's margins. Overall, the state was about equally strong for McCain as it was for Bush.

I'm a Ralph Yarborough Democrat

by: dem4evr @ Sat Feb 28, 2009 at 17:34:59 PM CST

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Clearly...

I was talking about OK-05, not OK-Gov.

by: James L. @ Sat Feb 28, 2009 at 18:15:11 PM CST

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The random quote in the middle dividing the OK-05 discussion and Rice, about LSD threw me off. My mistake.

Though OK-05 is a more interesting prospect. It is as Republican as the state (Old PVI R+12). However, in this case Rice would be running against a non-incumbent and with the netroots backing he could probably have a significant financial advantage, instead of a financial disadvantage. I'd bet that he'd be more wary of running for a higher post while not having the security to fall back to his state senate seat if he loses. It really would be all or nothing for him this time around.

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sat Feb 28, 2009 at 18:39:20 PM CST

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Old Merle Haggard song

This is not a random quote. It is part of the lyrics of "okie from Muskogee", a major hit for Merle Haggard. The point of the song was that while much of the country might be liberal, Oklahoma and a lot of similar places were not.

While national Republicans were in mourning, Oklahoma Republicans were gloating. The state Republican Party site had a Christmas card talking about all their victories and how 2008 was a greast year to be a Republican in Oklahoma. Just like Merle Haggard only this time fewer people were agreeing with Oklahomans.

by: David Kowalski @ Sat Feb 28, 2009 at 19:10:07 PM CST

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Muskogee County

I dont know about Muskogee city but I know Muskogee County actually went for Rice by 7 pts in 08. One of only 4 counties to go for Rice. All were in eastern OK and are clustered together. I think McCain won it by like 17. Bush won it by like 9 in 2004 and lost to Gore by 3. Im guessing its a pretty traditional Dem county, like much of eastern OK.

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sat Feb 28, 2009 at 23:21:15 PM CST

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And it was all too fitting...

By most accounts I've heard, Haggard didn't really buy into the love-it-or-leave-it mentality at all; he just figured out that his fans would lap it up. Not to mention that he was himself an ex-con. I always thought that was a fitting backstory for that song given the mentality of the folks it describes.

by: RamblinDave @ Mon Mar 02, 2009 at 02:32:24 AM CST

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He's also running

in the most Democratic district in the state as per the 2008 results. Oklahoma City is probably the only place in the state Obama is popular in...it's the only place he won in the primary and it's the only place I think he improved on Kerry.

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by: nrafter530 @ Sun Mar 01, 2009 at 03:12:37 AM CST

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Oklahoma City?

I was always under the impression that that was one of the most conservative big cities in the country and was actually even more conservative than the state as a whole.

by: ChadInFL @ Sun Mar 01, 2009 at 11:59:51 AM CST

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Old PVI = R+12, same as the state.

Probably now, it is less conservative than the state as a whole overall though.

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sun Mar 01, 2009 at 13:06:55 PM CST

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That's traditionally true

Minus northern Oklahoma and the Panhandle, the rural areas were always the Democrats best. The same goes for Northeast Texas and the Texas Panhandle (Stenholm won the rural ranching communities and Neugebauer took Amarillo and the other urban territories in his victory. Max Sandlin lost because rural Texarkana was swapped for urban Tyler-Longview.) However, with a new generation of voters, this oddity may be undoing itself...though OK-05 has a long way to go to catch OK-02. Even OK-04 WAS more Democratic until 1994 or so. Doubt that's true now.

by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Mon Mar 02, 2009 at 00:18:36 AM CST

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