Please, please, please god

let Gary Hirshberg run.

That would be pretty much perfect. Hodes replaces Gregg and Hirshberg replaces Hodes.  

---

by: Populista @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 13:06:39 PM CDT

Shea-Porte's awfully important announcement

I am glad she decided not run for senate. Not sure that makes it easier to hold NH-01

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by: fai calif @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 13:18:23 PM CDT

Ya

Shea-Porter wouldn't be remotely as good of a statewide candidate as Hodes is.  But I do think she's better as our NH-01 nominee than it being an open seat.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 13:26:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

She is slowly becoming entrenched in the district.

She was on WMUR the other night discussing rural healthcare.

---

by: Tyler Oakley @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 13:33:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

2006

NH-01 was the biggest surprise upset of the night in 2006 for me, IA-02 being a close second.  Carol's done very well in entrenching herself given how big of a surprise her initial win was.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 13:38:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

KS-02

Boyda was a pretty big surprise, no?

We can't stop here; this is bat country. -HST

---

by: 707stuckinKCMO @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 15:39:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes

But by election day the consensus among most analysts and myself for that matter was that KS-02 was a a tossup/slight R edge.  But for most IA-02 and NH-01 were considered either leans R or likely R.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 15:53:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes and No

If you mean in terms of a contest that came out of nowhere in the last couple of weeks, definitely.
But she did close it fast in those last couple of weeks and recieved a moneybomb from the DCCC a few days before the election. So not on the same level as NH-01, IA-02, or even races like NY-19.

---

by: Nico @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 15:53:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Money

Boyda got $700 K in late money from the DCCC and was head to head with Jim Ryun in total cash spent (including outside expenditures).  Leach outspent Loebsack but not by a large margin (by about 30% IIRC) and the district had a strong Democratic tilt.

CSP was outspent 3.5 or 4 to 1 and only spent something like $296 K including the money she spent on the primary (where she was a huge, outspent underdog). Her opponent was around $1.1 million.

These were the three biggest upsets, probably in the order of NH-1, IA-2, KS-2.

The RNC took a poll in IA-2 and found Leach with a 10 point lead so they didn't bother.  They also polled (but nothing else) in NH-1.  Probably a similar story.  That is what happens with limited resources and lots of turf to defend.  Personally, I think the Republicans in the House overachieved.  Kind of stunning isn't it.  

---

by: David Kowalski @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 13:05:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Same thing last year

They were able to save some of the most likely seats to change hands, Lance, Paulsen, Kirk, Young, Reichert, while others they probbaly thought were safe slipped through the cracks, Perriello, Nye, Kratovil, Bright etc.

---

by: conspiracy @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 13:12:23 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It's all a matter of guesswork and prediction.

It's nigh-impossible to be perfect.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 13:18:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Troy King

Wasn't he also involved in the politically motivated prosecution of former Gov. Siegelman, or was that someone else?

---

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 13:23:58 PM CDT

Meg Whitman

Please get a student repoter to ask her how much she is contributing to reduce the state/federal deficit. The sooner the better.

---

by: fai calif @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 13:26:00 PM CDT

I'd imagine

She'll be able to outspend our nominee for Governor if she wants to, but not by a big enough margin to make the difference.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 13:27:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

This is her bailout of

the political consulting industry.

Oh wait, it didn't need a bailout.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 15:08:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I wonder if she'll

ask for campaign contributions via her PAYPAL account?

---

by: homerun @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 22:15:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Uggg... paypal

That it the biggest scam I've ever encountered in my life.  It took my nearly 3 years to get the $630 they stole from me back.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 09:44:20 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

What happened?

Isn't it supposed to be a bit more reliable than losing $650?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 12:30:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sales I made

I had a contact at Target who hooked me up with two X-Box 360's on the first day they came out.  Bought them for like $350 each or whatever they costed and resold them on E-bay for $680 and $630.  The one for $680 went through without a hitch, but they Paypal locked my account for no apparent reason on the $630 sale.  It had nothing to do with the buyer who psid in full and on time.  Paypal just kept asking me to fax them more and more info related to the transaction, giving me the run around for many months and refusing to unlock my account.  I gave up on getting my money back, then nearly THREE YEARS LATER I got something in the mail from Paypal saying my account was finally unlocked.  Sure enough it was and I got my $630 back with no interest.  Never got an explanation or anything.

Paypal is nothing more than a fraud of a company.  MANY of my friends have had similar problems with them.  Almost noone I know will deal do business with them anymore.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 13:36:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

simmons

is serious. He had beaten Gejdenson. He can beat Dodd. I think Dodd should retire and let Blumenthal retain the seat for us.

---

by: fai calif @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 14:49:29 PM CDT

What's with this so-early hand-wringing?

Is it only becase Dodd has had some bad rap lately due to being the lightning rod for the financial bailout, leading to some cruddy poll numbers?

I'd say, wait at least a few more months before seriously saying he should retire.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 15:10:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Dodd's troubles started with

some loans he received at favorable rates. The bailout came much later. His numbers were tanking long before the bailout.

I have no timeline on his retirement announcement. He should discuss it with Blumenthal. Right now, he will have great difficulty in winning the seat. He should not have trouble raising money.

His candidacy will give the Republicans a big handle to beat democrats with all over the country. Why do we need this unecessary pain in the back?

---

by: fai calif @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 16:19:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Documents: Federal Funding Funneled to Rep. Murtha's Supporters

Time to hit the road Jack.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

A Pennsylvania defense research center regularly consulted with two "handlers" close to  Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.) as it collected nearly $250 million in federal funding through the lawmaker, according to documents obtained by The Washington Post and sources familiar with the funding requests. The center then channeled a significant portion of the funding to companies that were among Murtha's campaign supporters.

The two advisers included a lobbyist for PMA, a firm with close ties to Murtha that is the subject of a federal probe into whether it made illegal contributions by reimbursing donors to the Pennsylvania lawmaker and other members of Congress. The Electro-Optics Center also relied on advice from a longtime Murtha friend who now works on the congressman's appropriations staff.

Federal agents are also exploring how the center obtained its funds after receiving dozens of internal documents last year. It is unclear whether the records have become a central focus of the Justice Department's ongoing probe, but they open a window into a largely hidden process in which powerful lawmakers can direct funds to pet projects.

The Electro-Optics Center, created by Murtha a decade ago under the auspices of Pennsylvania State University, was envisioned as a way to spur a new high-tech industry and create jobs in economically depressed western Pennsylvania. Last year, the U.S. attorney in Pittsburgh received a packet of budget materials, memos and e-mails from inside the center documenting how closely its managers conferred with PMA about the best ways to get its projects funded in the federal budget, according to two sources familiar with the information.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 16:36:19 PM CDT

Um, that's the point

Everyone in his district knows about the pork. That's the point!  

---

by: andgarden @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 17:07:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Dems need to stop blocking this ethics investigation

Besides the whole being good for Democracy thing, it's good for our party. Tolerating corruption played a big part on Republican downfalls in '06 and Democratic in '94. Not that I'm one to harp on that "OMFG it's 1994 all over again OH NOES!" meme, but if it does happen, this crap would have a fair share to do with it.

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by: Nico @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 19:55:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Murtha

He's made the 10 most corrupt list in Congress every year for about a decade now.  Everyone knows about him but noone ever seems to investigate.  Guess his district doesn't care so long as he rolls in the pork.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 21:43:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

This is not a district that cares

much like Alaska, as long as Murtha keeps them happy. He's a crook, but he's their crook.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 21:52:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

They don't care

Because of the pork. The district that Murtha lives in ranges from poor to somewhat middle class. It relies on Murtha's pork to keep them going. You add that and the fact that PA-12 is home to several defense business that have plants there. This includes JWF Defense, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, DRS Technologies and Kongsberg Gruppen. There all based in Murtha's hometown of Johnstown. I don't like all the corruption, but it's understanable because there are major defense industries in that area that employ alot of people. There are reasons why when I go past JWF Industries there's a big banner outside there plant that says "We support John Murtha, he delivers for us".

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by: bradley minoski @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 22:51:12 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Chris Dodd=John Cornyn

Cornyn had the same low approvals, the same mini-scandals, and a decent opponent in 2008.  But, because of how expensive Texas is, and because of his state's red hue, he won easily.

Dodd will walk, because a.) The New York media market is too expensive, b.) Connecticut is as blue as anywhere else, and c.) he is an intrenched incumbent.  Actually more so than Cornyn.

Mad At Thad:  A Blog Devoted To Ousting Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, Republican - Michigan

---

by: Sean Fitzpatrick @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 18:13:21 PM CDT

Great analogy

Except Simmons is not a up and coming, under represented minority in a minority-majority state, he's a has-been loser.

BTW- How many Ex-Representatives have been elected to the Senate?  

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog

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by: fitchfan28 @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 20:42:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

cant think of a single one

that's a very good question.

Let's not forget, he won a tough race back in 2000, then lost a tough race in 2006.  He seems like an ideal candidate until we remember, wait, he lost in 2006.

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by: Andrew @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 20:51:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

As I was looking for one, I found this gem

"Having a Senator Chafee with an R next to his name merely results in our 2-person advantage on each committee being reduced to 0 on every committee and sub-committee on which Chafee sits, since Chafee votes with the Democrats on just about every important issue....  And if if it fails, and we thus start off with 54 Republican Senators (before we consider the likely pick-ups we'll have in 2006), then so be it."
http://www.freerepublic.com/fo...

Ah, happy days.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

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by: tommypaine @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 21:52:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

_likely_ pick-ups?

Yes.  Very likely.

o hai i c wat u did thar.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 22:08:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

LOL

Same poster thinks Bush lost Rhode Island in 2004 because "he didn't much bother to campaign there". Suuuuure. Such a shame Kerry didn't bother try for Oklahoma else he would have won!  

---

by: conspiracy @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 11:59:46 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Maria Cantwell for one.

Tom Coburn too.

---

by: Tyler Oakley @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 21:15:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Coburn wasn't defeated though

He retired in 2000 because he had promised to serve no more than three terms. Cantwell is the better analogy to Simmons having lost her only reelection bid in 1994.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 21:26:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Jennings Randolph

Looking through Wikipedia has its amusements.  Randolph was elected six straight times to the House before losing in 1946.  He was Senator for a good long while.

Btw, each of the last three Presidents lost races for the US House and never won (Obama, George W. Bush, Clinton).  Obama lost for the House and was elected to the Senate.  He never was elected to the US House.  Kerry also lost for the House but was elected to the Senate.

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by: David Kowalski @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 13:52:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Bush Sr. also lost a house race

To Ralph Yarborough nonetheless.  Of course he did bounce back and eventually won a house seat.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 14:05:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not Senate

But Gov. Ted Strickland (lost as incumbent in 94, got it back in 96)

---

by: trowaman @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 23:04:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Maria Cantwell

---

by: fatcathobbes @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 23:32:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oh wait, someone already said that

my bad

---

by: fatcathobbes @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 23:32:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Noriega-Simmons

The Cornyn-Dodd analogy is OK (except I'm not sure what Cornyn's supposed scandal was), but the bigger problem is that Noriega was a much weaker candidate than Simmons; not the other way around.  Noriega is and was much less well known in Texas than Simmons is in Connecticut, having represented 1/150th of the state as a state rep vs. 1/5th for Simmons.  Texas is also a much more expensive state to run in than Connecticut and Noriega had no money--an especially fatal combination for someone who is not well known.  The jury is still out on whether Simmons can raise enough money, but he certainly has a history of raising more as a US rep than Noriega did as a state rep, he won't need to raise nearly as much, and he's more likely to receive NRSC support because CT is a much higher on their list of takeover opportunities than TX ever was for us.  Finally, I'm skeptical that Noriega's Hispanic heritage was an electoral plus for him.  Texas is not yet a minority-majority state and it is absolutely no where near being so in terms of voters--the CNN exit poll for 2008 showed Latinos as only 20% of voters.

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by: sicembears @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 11:16:12 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

TX is, in fact, a minority-majority state

Ethnic minorities make up the majority of the Texas population (with the largest plurality being Whites), but the voting population is majority white.  California and New Mexico have the same issue (with many more liberal whites living in those states).  Only Hawaii has a a majority of their voting population made up of ethnic minorities.

We can't stop here; this is bat country. -HST

---

by: 707stuckinKCMO @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 12:54:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

PA-Sen. So Specter has rebuffed three attempts (at least)

at getting him to do the logical thing and switch back to being a Democrat.
So, he's had his chance & now I'll look forward to him being humiliated by Toomey in his primary.

---

by: homerun @ Mon Mar 16, 2009 at 22:26:32 PM CDT

I knew it!

Meg Whitman is trying to shill bid her race for governor by pumping in her own money.  

---

by: gomer @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 09:54:09 AM CDT

[ Parent ]