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IN-Sen: Ellsworth Will Have to Wait (Update: He's In)

by: James L.

Fri Feb 19, 2010 at 11:41 AM EST


A slight snag:

Democrats will have to wait until after the May 4 primary to officially pick their nominee to replace Sen. Evan Bayh.

Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Dan Parker, who had said he wanted a candidate quickly, said Thursday that "the sooner rather than later has now become later."

Parker had hoped to call a meeting of the Democratic Party's state central committee's 32 voting members as early as next week. But after party attorneys researched state law, they discovered they could not fill the ballot vacancy until after the primary.

That's just as well for U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth, who said Thursday he needs more time to make a decision.

And it won't be a problem for U.S. Rep. Baron Hill. Friends said he is interested in exploring a run for Senate, but he has been out of the country on a congressional mission.

The primary, as you are aware, is on May 4th -- over ten weeks down the line. For state Democrats who wanted to coalesce quickly around Brad Ellsworth, that creates a bit of an awkward interim period, especially if more Democrats, like Hill, express their interest in the race. After a bit of uncertainty yesterday, Chris Cillizza reports that Ellsworth will indeed enter the race "shortly". It's also not yet clear how state Democrats will resolve the uncertainty over the replacement process for Ellsworth in the 8th CD. Will they attempt to withdraw his name from the primary ballot?

UPDATE: Ellsworth has made it official.

LATER UPDATE: Democratic state Rep. Trent Van Haaften has filed to run for Ellsworth's House seat. Will any strong Republicans follow suit?

EVEN LATER UPDATE: It doesn't look like the GOP has been able to sneak in a top-tier candidate under the wire in the 8th CD. The Hotline ID'd Gibson Co. Prosecutor Rob Kreig and state Treasurer Richard Mourdock as two GOP candidates considering last-minute bids, but the filing deadline closed at noon local time, and it doesn't look like either of those guys pulled the trigger. The GOP appears stuck with physician Larry Bucschon -- not the worst possible candidate, but far from their ideal choice.
James L. :: IN-Sen: Ellsworth Will Have to Wait (Update: He's In)
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IN-Sen: Ellsworth Will Have to Wait (Update: He's In) | 53 comments
Not really a problem
It won't be official but doesn't mean he can't raise money and start the process of reaching out to people. Assuming nobody else gets in. I think Baron Hill is a non-starter so hopefully he gets dissuaded.
Well there's nothing we can do
I mean what do you want them to do, dispute the law? By the time that's settled it will be primary day. It's akward but unless they find some loophole in the law Ellsworth will have to wait.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
Unless I'm mistaken
He will be presumptive nominee. Just like in most years the presidential candidate wins the nomination but has to wait several months for the convention to ratify it. Same deal here.
[ Parent ]
Question is
Will he be allowed to tour the state and raise money, that's what I want to know.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
It's a federal race, so any House money
he raises can go to the Senate race.

As for touring the state - he can do that as much as he wants now.  Who can stop him?  He just cannot do it as the Senate candidate.

[ Parent ]
Thanks for answering my question
Pretty much he can raise money and tour the state, just not as a "Official" candidate for Senate. Got it.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Why not?
How is it different from presidential nominees visiting states before the convention? The primaries and caucus results aren't binding.
[ Parent ]
I meant as the offical Senate candidate.
Of course he can call himself one, especially since he is one.
[ Parent ]
He 's always been able to do that
Just do it as a Congressman and transfer the funds over to a Senate account later.
[ Parent ]
With Ellsworth, I think this race is probably Lean GOP


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Why
Because he has to wait? BS. The man is facing two weak challengers, one with alot of lobbying connections and the other a certfied. This race is tossup at best Andy and you know it.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Tossup in the traditional rankings yes
Rothenberg does his differently - pure tossup and tossup/tilt Republican or Democrat. In that sense tilt Republican in my view. Though the man himself says pure so who am I to argue?
[ Parent ]
Right but every predictor is different...
Whatever is Rothenberg, Cook, Silver etc. My view is as a tossup is that there is no clear favorite, espically since the campaign isn't in full gear and we have no idea who the GOP nominee.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
There was a time
In my own rankings when I never used tossup since it seemed like a cop-out. In that sense it is narrow advantage to the GOP. But most would change depending on what method is used.
[ Parent ]
LOL
In my rating system, I use "Tilt-Tossup" and "Pure-Tossup".  In 2008, all but a few of my Tilt-Tossups Rep went to the Republicans, and likewise with the Democrats.  

I only assign "Pure Tossups" when I don't have a freaking clue on how a race will go, but I always assign them to a category the day before the election.  I had MO, IN, and NC as pure tossups in the Presidential election up until the day before the election.  I put NC and MO to Obama and IN to the Republicans.  If I could have switched IN and MO, I would have been dead on (except for NE-3...I didn't think it would go to the Dems).

I have this race Tilt-Democrat, and that's based on the poor quality of candidates for the Republicans.  Ellsworth will gain traction this summer and will pull even by late September.  After that, who knows what will happen.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Uusally I agree with your assessment
On tossup and give a slight advantage to the GOP but because the candidates are both weak and we really don't know who the nominee for them is that's why I gave IN-Sen a pure tossup.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I would say the only pure tossup right now
Is Illinois. Though I think Alexi will take it in the end. Maybe Ohio but Portman's money is a worry. Then again I'm reluctant to base anything purely on Rasmussen polls which is really the case with Missouri, Pennsylvania and Colorado. Reid certainly isn't as far behind as ND, AR and DE.
[ Parent ]
That's fair
Espically with MO, PA and CO where we been getting all our info from Scotty Ras. IL I give it a tilt tossup because it will be a close race with him and Mark Kirk I give it a titl instead of pure because of the nature of the state. I give IN-Sen pure tossup because of the weak GOP candidates and the fact is we really don't know who Ellsworth will face. Good news today though that he has announced he will take the plunge so even though the primary isn't until May, let the campaign begin.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Weak challengers...
Coats is at a bad starting point around 35/35 approvals, and Hostettler can't raise money.  If they beat each other up enough and Ellsworth can raise money (he only has 450K in the bank right now) then I'd call it a tossup.  But given the Republican tilt of the state and assuming Hostettler won't raise enough money to bring the fight to Coats, I have to agree with lean Republican.  It's an uphill fight.  
[ Parent ]
I still call it a tossup
Because of the weak challengers and there could be a change Host can get help with money plus there's the factors of beating each other up during the primary. You factor in that and the fact that Ellsworth is a strong candidate is the reason why I call it a pure tossup. Is it a uphill fight yes? Is the result a foregone conclusion like ND-Sen, no can Ellsworth win this, absolutely. It's an uphill fight but a winnable fight aince you got a good candidate here. But you make a good point Jeremiah.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I agree with Lean Republican
Those factors you listed pull it away from Likely or Safe R but they don't make it tossup. it's still a Republican state in a Republican year, and for now the Republicans are ahead (maybe not by double digits, but I doubt Ras is off by THAT much). and while we have a strong candidate, he still does have the toxic association with Washington. Lean Republican indicates that this is by all means a winnable race while acknowledging the reality that the Republicans start off ahead.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
They all have associations with DC
Ellsworth is a Congressman, Coats was a Congressman and Senator and a lobbyists until this point lived in NC and Hostettler was a Congressman for 12 years so your point is certainly moot there. My points do make it a tossup because we have a strong candidate and he'll be facing a weak candidate and after the primary, the GOP nom will be weaker. Ellsworth can run a good campaign and his record can reach out to the moderate IN  statewide voters. Yes I know the nature of the state but that dosen't mean jack when the GOP opposition and it dosen't matter if it's a Republican year. As far as i'm concerned none of these guys are ahead Dem and GOPers.

As for the Ras poll, yeah he'll off by that much. The puts out these polls to prop up the GOP.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
my point wasn't
that the Repubs aren't DC insiders...my point was that Ellsworth is. in a year like this, if faced with two DC insiders and all else being equal, voters will be inclined to choose the Republican DC insider.

I think you're emphasizing Ellsworth's political record. His large margins are certainly due to his strength as a candidate, but 2006 and 2008 were both great Democratic years. Having canvassed in Indiana for the 2008 election I know for a fact that many black voters in Lake County and Indy only vote in presidential years, if even then.

denying the lean of a state and the national tides and only looking at candidate strength doesn't make any sense at all. Do you believe Melancon is ahead of Vitter then?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
sorry
*overemphasizing Ellsworth's political record.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Actually Coats is a DC Insider
Since he was a lobbyist before entering the race and didn't even live in IN but NC. There all insiders because ALL of them have ties to DC, espically Coats. I'm not overemphazing his record because that matters,Ellsworth record will go a long way to apease statewide voters since he's a moderate. If his record was as liberal as Andre Carson he wouldn't stand a chance in hell. So what if '06 and '08 were good years for us, not every Dem in america that got elected didn't win by 19 points like he did. He ran a good campaign to beat Hostettler and I believe he do the same to him again or to Coats.

I'm not denying the lean of the state or the environment but sorry that dosen't mean squat if the President is liked in IN (unlike the other state you mentioned, LA) and that Ellsworth is a strong candidate facing weak opposition. It's a fight, but a fight we can win.

Oh and Melancon never had a chance. He's from a state where Obama and Dems are as popular as swine flu plus it's a state that's trending away from us, the same can't be said in IN and Vitter isn't a weak incumbent. Yeah he had sex with a whore, but the state dosen'r seem to care because he's a GOPer in a GOP state.

I'

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
as I just said
I'm not saying Coats isn't a DC insider. that's not my point. my point is that Ellsworth is not poised to take advantage of the anti-DC sentiment...I'm not saying anything about the Republicans in that respect.

no offense, but the claim that the partisan lean or environment doesn't matter if the president is popular is ridiculous; it certainly wasn't enough to save Coakley's ass. besides, it's always unfair to take one poll and run with it, and the same is true of polls that show pro-Dem results. the 55% Obama could have easily been an outlier, especially since most polls show Obama's national approval in the high 40s and Indiana voted slightly more Republican than the nation as a whole.

I'm not saying this race isn't winnable, but to completely ignore the national headwind and lean of a state is Pollyannaish at best. If candidate quality was more important than those factors, Senator Mongiardo would be up for re-election in Kentucky this year.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Well about the race
No candidate can take the Anti-DC sentiment because all three of them have DC ties, yes your rightabout thar.

You can't compare IN-Sen to MA-Sen because Martha Coakley let herself lose the easy race by taking time off and making various gaffes, giving time and momentum to Scott Brown. Unless Ellsworth does the same stuff (which I doubt) you can't compare the two. The President rating matters because it all goes to whatever the voters will accept you or not. Whatever it's 55 or 44 percent (which I doubt since it's from Scotty Ras) Obama's rating is fine and alright for a Dem running statewide, unlike in LA where bcause of his bad rating for life there and LA is a state where it's trending away from us, Melancon dosen't have a chance. You do know that IN voted for Obama so it's not slightly more GOP than the nation as a whole, I can name you a bunch of other states that can fit that bill so wrong there. Also the nature dosen't mean anything if a strong Dem is running againist weak GOPers if the nature meant EVERYTHING then Tim Hutchinson will be running for a 2nd Term in AR, Same with Pete Coors in CO. And you can't compare this with KY-Sen '04 because it wasn't until the end that Dr. Dan got momentum after various gaffes by Jim Bunning (like saying he looked like one of Saddam Hussein's son's). Most pundits says if it wasn't for Bush racking up huge numbers that year in KY Dan would of been Senator.


22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Of course I know that
IN voted for Obama, seeing as how I worked my ass off to knock on doors for him there. And while Ellsworth is a better candidate than Coakley, Coakley was running in a better state. It's not like Ellsworth's advantages magically cancel out Coakley's just because he was a better candidate. Both of them have advantages and disadvantages that the other didn't have. Coakley's race could have been won and Ellsworth's certainly can be too, but in the same way that Coakley's disadvantages (aka her failure as a candidate) couldn't be overcome, the possibility exists that Ellsworth's disadvantages (partisan lean of the state, national environment) might also not be overcome.

And yes Indiana is more GOP than the nation as a whole. If the nation as a whole goes Democratic by ~7 points and Indiana goes Democratic by ~1 point then that is more Republican than the nation as a whole by definition.

I never said the nature meant everything...but you just explicitly said "the nature doesn't mean anything." Of course it means something. Just because a roadblock can be overcome does not mean it doesn't exist. We need to look at all the factors here, not just the ones that work in our favor.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Yes there are disadvantages
Ellsworth have to overcome like the conservative nature of the state and with his record he can reach out to the moderate ones, that helps. His ability to be a strong campaigner also helps. There are roadblocks yes, but if can work over them and works hard, this seat can be attained. Even in a bad evironment and lean of the state some can overcome and win and while I see people like Reid and Lincoln going down in flames, I can see Ellsworth get the victory if he does the right things, appeal to the moderate statewide voters and most of all: Don't do the same dumbass things Martha Coakley did. and him facing weak opposition certainly helps as well. Ellsworth have avantages like the ones I mentioned and I do adknowledge he had disadvsantages but if he works hard he can overcome them.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I certainly agree
I would not be surprised if Ellsworth wins, I just think he starts off behind. I think that's a fair statement to make. Obama was behind in a lot of early 2008 polls as well.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Yeah he is behind
Partly because almost half the electorate doesn't know who he is. And still the Repubs are barely over 45 percent. Is it a tossup? Leans GOP? Tilt GOP? As I was saying before it depends what rating method you use.
[ Parent ]
I agree
Ellsworth starts off behind by a bit or tied because of the state but if he works hard and defines his opponents well, he can win like we both think can happen. You right, Obama was behind in the early 2008 polls hell, everyone thought Hillary won get the nom after Super Tuesday. But him and his campaign bust there ass after Super Tuesday winning state after state and that's how he beat Hillary, did the same with McCain. Which goes back to my original point: If Ellsworth works hard and can appeal to the voters well which I believe he can, we can retain this seat.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Of course partisan lean or environment matters
And nobody is ignoring it. But presidential approval clearly can make a difference. Are you telling me it doesn't matter if the president has 45% approval in Indiana and 35% in Louisiana?
[ Parent ]
The lean and environment does matter
I mean yeah i'll admit the GOP will start with a SLIGHT efge because of the nature but can change quickly but yeah according to the poster president approval rating dosen't mean jack.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Of course it matters
but 45% (or whatever his approval in Indiana is--probably somewhere in the mid-to-high 40s, I'm guessing) is not enough of an approval rating to make this race a tossup. Most presidents with a 45% nationwide approval rating would lose re-election.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Um, he doen't have those ratings everywhere
In VT his rating is 65 percent for example. Bush had bad ratings in '04 but that didn't stop him from winning re-election. The fact is in IN a 44 percent approval given the environment is not bad for him, certainly better than LA and because of that it helps Ellsworth because his man isn't as popular as the plague like he is in LA and it helps that he faces weak opposition and his record helps to appease moderate voters. All these matter.


22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Of course they matter
but it's important not to overstate their importance, especially in light of polling showing Ellsworth starting behind. yes it's Rasmussen, but I doubt he's off by so so much that Ellsworth is actually tied.

Btw most polls around the 2004 election showed Bush's approval in the high 40s/low 50s.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Yeah it is important
A state where the President a 35 rating isn't going to elect one of his own statewide, easy as that. being in the 40's in IN in this environment is alright for Ellsworth because it shows that there is support for the party he belong too and that can help him when he goes through the state to reach out to the moderate voters of the state.

Yeah Bush had polls in the 40's and the 50's, so does the President. Some have him in the 40's some in the high 50's. That's not bad at all given this environment.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
The same could be said of overstating
The importance of the lean of the state and the environment. Which one will hold most weight? We just don't know if a good Democratic candidate running a good campaign is enough to beat a bad Republican candidate running a bad campaign despite the state lean/environment. That is why we have an election.
[ Parent ]
Yep that is why we have election
And Ellsworth got Nine months to tour around the state and show himself to voters before the election will take place.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Yeah and one more thing
It is enough to make it a tossup given the nature of the GOP candidates right about now.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Look at everything
Candidate strength, lean of the state and environment. That is why we have campaigns not coronations.
[ Parent ]
Yup
That is why we have campaigns not coronations

That's why there's a Republican sitting in Teddy's seat now.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Indeed
And we know why and who we can thank for that. Though obviously the bad environment also played a part.
[ Parent ]
The environment helped Brown
But Coakley didn't do herself any favors by screwing up with the gaffes, the inept campaign and her taking a vacation after she won the primary.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
They cannot fill the ballot vacancy
until after the primary.  I don't see why they cannot decide who will be the person to fill that vacancy beforehand.
My reading also
As usual the media making mountains out of molehills.
[ Parent ]
Damn that liburl media


22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Sad news (unrelated)
Lautenberg has stomach cancer.

His age could only complicate matters.

I wish the best for him.

Dammit
Wish him the best. But could this cycle get any worse? Hindsight is wonderful but looking more like it wasn't a geat idea for him to run again in 2008.
[ Parent ]
Damn, stomach cancer one of the most painful as well
Wish him the best.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
To quote James
LATER UPDATE: Democratic state Rep. Trent Van Haaften has filed to run for Ellsworth's House seat. Will any strong Republicans follow suit?

Question is: can they? the filing deadline has passed and there's more than one GOPer in the race.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

Can a write-in win the May primary?
I won't pretend to understand Indiana election law (my efforts to decipher it this past week have repeatedly gotten details wring).

That said, I am wondering if there will, in fact, be a vacancy for the Senate nomination after May 4th?

Even though no candidates have filed, don't voters still have the option of writing in a candidate in the Senate race?  Or does Indiana law mean that since no candidate has filed for the office, there is a vacancy that only the party hase filled.

If, in fact, write-ins are allowed, wouldn't it be better for one or more serious candidates to seek the nomination by asking Democratic voters for their write-in votes? If that happens, the issue of the nominee being selected in a backroom deal by party insiders would have less credibility, and the nominee would be able to say they have won the nomination in a primary?

Any insights into what Indiana law says about this?

IN-Sen: Ellsworth Will Have to Wait (Update: He's In) | 53 comments

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