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NY-Sen-B: Maloney to Bow Out of Senate Race

by: James L.

Fri Aug 07, 2009 at 12:22 PM EDT


Call her the candidate who cried "wolf". After months of publicly toying with a bid, Carolyn Maloney won't challenge Kirsten Gillibrand in the Democratic primary after all, according to the New York Times:

Representative Carolyn B. Maloney is expected to announce today that she has changed her mind and will not enter the primary race against Kirsten E. Gillibrand, New York's newly appointed senator.

A person close to Mrs. Maloney, a Democrat from Manhattan, said she made her decision not to run after days of agonizing over the fact that running meant she would have to leave her current job at a point when she had significant seniority in Congress.

Maloney aborting her run clears the last major hurdle for Gillibrand before she clinches the Democratic nomination next year -- and also removes a messy, resource-draining fracas from the long list of issues that Democrats will have to grapple with in 2010.

Good deal.

UPDATE: TAP has the full text of Maloney's statement.

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James L. :: NY-Sen-B: Maloney to Bow Out of Senate Race
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NY-Sen-B: Maloney to Bow Out of Senate Race | 36 comments
I think Gillibrand's distinct shift left short-circuited this.
She hasn't been the Blue Dog she was in the House.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
For this reason, I thank Carol Maloney
I like Gillibrand much better now than I likely would have otherwise.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I think it's a good idea to keep a close eye on Gillibrand, though.  I trust her a hell of a lot more than Specter, but that's not saying too terribly much.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
If Specter wins the primary...
His voting record will shoot back to that of a moderate Democrat.  He's a politician's politician.  
[ Parent ]
I'm not convinced he'll even remain a Democrat
That, the fact that he need a primary to act like a Democrat, and the simple fact that his age and health make serving a full term more doubtful than normal are the reasons I'm inclined to like Sestak's candidacy.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
And then
After the primary he'll move to moderate Democrat.

After the general he'll move further right to cantakerous meglomaniac.

[ Parent ]
There are three very important votes
between now and the primary: health care, a compromise EFCA, cap and trade.  

Three votes where Specter voting with us may mean that it passes.  Enough so that Specter's switch would have been worth it.


[ Parent ]
Peter King
I hope King challenges Gillibrand. King would get crushed in the general, and the dems could hopefully get his house seat. In addition to the 2010 special election, Gillibrand has to run again in 2012 to get elected to another 6 year term.
Isn't going to happen.
King isn't fundraising like a senate candidate and he quit making rumblings a long time ago.  He's not stupid.  Without a bloody primary he knows he doesn't have a chance.  
[ Parent ]
Disappointing news
I had hoped she would have withstood the pressure and threats from Washington, Albany and Long Island, but I guess it was too much for her, or else she was bought off in some way.  One of the few times I can recall a candidate leading, albeit marginally, dropped out.  I'm sure there's more to the story than meets the eye.

I hope progressive New Yorkers now rally behind Jonathan Tasini's grassroots campaign.  It's a long shot, but every vote he gets is a vote against blue dogism.

Money
As in, she didn't have enough, and anyway Gillibrand had much more.  
[ Parent ]
Don't bet on it
Gillibrand has, quite smartly, moved to the left on the issues that may have given her trouble.

I know you don't like Gillibrand. Your tirades against her have gotten about as tiresome as Tekzilla's Chicken Little impersonation.

My bet: Gillibrand wins with 75-85% in the primary and creams the GOP candidate.

[ Parent ]
Good.
She wouldn't have won, and this way the House doesn't lose her very qualified presence.
Is Maloney bowing out or
is she walking out unbowed?
The benefits of this are already evident
As a result (of Maloney bowing out), CQ Politics changed its rating on the race from "Leans Democratic" to the less competitive "Democrat Favored." (h/t Political Wire).  
Some observations
1. Jon Tassini is running in the primary against KG.  What percentage of the vote will he get? I am looking forward to the guesses in these pages.

2. A Maloney associate told the NYT anonymously "It was a tough decision for her." I would never have guessed!

3. Maloney had the strong (editorial page) support from the Murdoch tabloid The New York Post to run. Maloney supporters were silent on this.

4. Chuck Schumer engineered Maloney's exit. He endorsed Steve Levin, chief of staff to Assemblyman Vito Lopez, for City Council. Lopez was one of the few influential politicians Maloney was counting on. Schumer pre-empted her.

Actually
Maloney had also endorsed Steve Levin. But Schumer's endorsement made it clear that Vito will not endorse Maloney.
[ Parent ]
Tasini
20% tops.
[ Parent ]
Tasini
got 17% against Hillary in 2006. I'll be generous and give him 19% this time.
[ Parent ]
BTW, there will be no real general election race
Gillibrand is essentially home free.  
NY
As a NYer I really like Gillibrand and I am glad Maloney dropped out.

29/D/Male/NY-01
No new Representative
To me, that's the only down side. I was looking forward to the possibility of a smarter, more liberal member of Congress from Maloney's district. She made the right call, though. Is she going to endorse Gillibrand against Republican opposition now?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
McCarthy
Will she run now? She wasnt running because Maloney was. She said she would step aside for a younger challenger, and now, there is none
Gut feeling
I doubt it. As I recall, McCarthy threatened but never promised to run against Gillibrand if no-one else did. Also, it would have been a one-issue primary, focused on gun control; otherwise, the voting records of the two as Representatives were comparable. And Gillibrand has shown that, as Senator, she remains a supporter of hunters' rights but stands for protection of municipalities' (such as New York City's) right to control guns within their boundaries, so that difference between McCarthy and Gillibrand has decreased.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
IIRC, she said something to the effect that
she liked the way Gillibrand had taken the views of her new constituency into account, so no.
[ Parent ]
Who will be the GOP candidate in the generl election?

An also ran.

[ Parent ]
They might
have to run Ed Cox if no one else shows up. (He's Nixon's son-in-law. He's an insider and was going to run for state party chair, but he's also considered to be in the bullpen for statewide office if need be.)

Or maybe Rick Lazio will mosey over from NY-Gov to this race, especially if Rudy gets into the Gov race for some reason. Or maybe they'll bump John Faso up from the Comptroller's race?

Without a heavily contested primary, the odds of George Pataki and/or Peter King getting in drop to maybe 1%.

[ Parent ]
Nixon's son-in-law
I have a feeling that will not play well, though Nixon looks pretty good compared to W.

Has Ed Cox done anything noteworthy to merit attention?

[ Parent ]
I'd like to think Pataki
But I don't see him running. He gives me mixed feelings about running. Along with Giuliani. I don't think either of them are gonna run. But, some of their actions make me think they will. Two very moderate Republican's, they are now on talk shows and giving speeches, and they sound like they've been conservatives their whole lives! That makes me wonder, are both of them really leaning towards making runs next year? If Giuliani runs for Gov, I think Lazio might run against Gillibrand. I also think that, for either race, former SoS Randy Daniels. If not, IDK. Some local officials.  
[ Parent ]
Giuliani was at the Yankees-Red Sox game at the Stadium last night
When the camera panned over him, there was a mixture of cheers and boos. I'd say mostly cheers, but I believe that Giuliani's extremist language in his pathetic presidential race would hurt him with New York voters, if he chose to run for statewide office. In addition, though he did win two mayoral elections and was credited by many for the drastic drop in crime here, he was very unpopular toward the end of his second term, until the terrorist atrocities befell us. My observation is that the further the atrocities diminish in the rear-view mirror, and the more that black marks like the Bernard Kerik fiasco appear, the less New Yorkers' primary emotion toward Giuliani is one of thanks for that last period in his mayoralty.

I think I may speak for many liberal New Yorkers in saying that, on balance, Giuliani was a good mayor (and I say that despite very strong objections to some of what he did and said in those days), but in any higher office, he would act like a viciously partisan Republican and thus, would never get my vote.

As for Pataki, he was a non-racist, pro-choice, and a supporter of gay rights, and had a pretty good environmental record, but he was a horrible governor who exacerbated the huge sucking sound of New York City's tax dollars going to Albany and never coming back (e.g., the underfunding of the New York City public schools) and was all for cutting taxes to the richest in order to decrease investments in social welfare, broadly as well as narrowly defined.

Even more important for judging Pataki's current electoral prospects, should he choose to run, he also has approximately the charisma of a toad.

So if these are the two top statewide electoral prospects for the New York GOP, I think they are in serious trouble.

I'd suggest that some much lesser-known individual (possibly someone I've never heard of) who comes across as reasonable and has some charisma or at least gives good speeches and can either self-finance or get good funding would be a better way to go. Even if such a dark-horse candidate loses, they may establish themself as a contender in future races.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Charisma of a toad?
That has to be one of the best zingers I've read on SSP.

Well, at least he has no warts, though I doubt he turns into a handsome prince when kissed?

[ Parent ]
Maybe to his wife
;)

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Ick! Moving on...
I have a hard time seeing Pataki run for anything. He left office tremendously unpopular, and I doubt he wants to expend the money, time, or energy facing an unprimaried Gillibrand.
[ Parent ]
Cuomo, Gillibrand, Schumer
If Cuomo runs from governor, than him along with Schumer and Gillibrand will all have landslide re-election wins. This would help protect all the vulnerable democratic house seats in upstate new york. Maybe it would even be enough to get rid of any republican house seats left.
I'm a huge Maloney fan
and don't trust Gillibrand further than I could throw her (though if she actually forces the issue of DADT to come instead of just getting her face plastered all over The Daily Beast once a week with promises, I'll reassess my position).

That being said, Maloney was blowing this. I don't think she was the favorite to win and I don't think she was putting enough distance between herself and Gillibrand on the issues. I would have had to have one of my favorite Rep's careers go up in smoke.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

NY-Sen-B: Maloney to Bow Out of Senate Race | 36 comments

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