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TN-Gov: Wamp is In

by: James L.

Mon Jan 05, 2009 at 1:54 PM EST

Roll Call:

Rep. Zach Wamp (R) announced Monday morning that he would run for governor in Tennessee in 2010, creating an open House seat in what should be a safe Republican district.
The decision by the seven-term Congressman came one day after former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) announced he would not seek the gubernatorial post. Since then, the Republican field has opened up and Wamp's name had been mentioned along with Memphis District Attorney Bill Gibbons and Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam.

According to The Hill, Gibbons has also thrown his hat into the ring, ensuring a chance at some nice primary fireworks here. (For more on the contours of the GOP's internal battle lines, check out this piece from the Nashville Post.) And as David notes below, open seat fans should probably not get their hopes up over the vacancy in Wamp's R+9 district.

Wamp's retirement brings the number of confirmed Republican open seats up to three (Pete Hoekstra in MI-02 and Jerry Moran in KS-01 being the other two), but none of these seats could be called low-hanging fruit for Democrats by any means.

James L. :: TN-Gov: Wamp is In

Tags: 2010 House Open Seat Watch, TN-03, TN-Gov, (All Tags)

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TN-Gov: Wamp is In | 13 comments

I wouldn't write it off completely

Don't get your hopes up, but open-seat situations are almost always decent pickup opportunities. East Tennessee is very red, but with the right candidate this could be a competitive race.

by: TDDVandy @ Mon Jan 05, 2009 at 13:53:46 PM CST

by: you @ soon

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Also,

the biggest city in the 3rd is Chattanooga and Ford won this city in 2006, which I believe was the first statewide Democrat to win the city since Gore in 1990. We also have made some progress at the local level in some the rural counties in the district. It will be a tough fight, but the right candidate could win here.

by: publius2481 @ Mon Jan 05, 2009 at 13:58:58 PM CST

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Little shocked

he pulled the trigger, since he has floated the possibility of running statewide before and backed out. He and Knoxville mayer Haslem are probably their best two guys, but neither is unbeatable.

by: publius2481 @ Mon Jan 05, 2009 at 13:54:54 PM CST

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Wamp

Wamp had initially been planning to run for the Senate in 2006, but decided against it when Corker (who is also from Chattanooga) got into the race. What probably changed his mind is that there's a lot less to like about being a House Republican now than there was prior to 2006.

Wamp and Haslam both have a base in East Tennessee, which could leave either one vulnerable to a primary opponent from another part of the state (Gibbons) who can sweep that part of the state in the primary and win a plurality. Tennessee has no runoff.

by: TDDVandy @ Mon Jan 05, 2009 at 14:05:23 PM CST

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The district wouldn't be an

improbable win, Democrats held it for 9 or 10 terms before 1994 with a woman whose name i forget. It's not as Republican as the otehr eastern Tennessee districts. The right Democrat could pick it up.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Jan 05, 2009 at 14:51:28 PM CST

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Very much so

If we have well-known Mayor or state legislator in the district similar to Bobby Bright it's winnable.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Jan 05, 2009 at 16:10:33 PM CST

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Marilyn Lloyd

Was the congresswoman's name. But I think she was kinda coasting on borrowed time towards the end. She also revised her position on abortion to pro-Choice at some point I think in the late 80s, which is admirable in the sense that this is probably an extremely tough district to do that in, but not the best move if you want to keep winning reelection.
I agree that this district could be winnable, but we would probably need someone top tier. Who do we even have running around here?

by: Nico @ Mon Jan 05, 2009 at 17:46:55 PM CST

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Chatanooga and several

other traditionally Democratic, pro-new deal areas of the state balance it out a little.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Jan 05, 2009 at 22:07:22 PM CST

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Any word on our side?

If I remember rightly Lincon Davis was planning a run as was Harold Ford Jr.

by: Populista @ Mon Jan 05, 2009 at 14:57:48 PM CST

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Davis is a near lock to run

If it's Davis vs. Wamp I actually do like out chances. We'd probably have at least a 50/50 shot in that matchup. Davis has a good profile to run for Governor and has won competitive races in the past.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Jan 05, 2009 at 16:08:54 PM CST

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For sure

TN is gone for Democrats on the national level and I actually think the Dems are the underdog to hold the Gov's mansion though Lincoln Davis could conceivably win narrowly. People may want a complete change to the GOP after the Democrats' debacle in running the State Leg. But bon't be surpised if Obama choses not to bother with this race in 2010 since Davis and his crew weren't sure if the President had "terrorist sympathies".

If the GOP does win, expect them to target Lincoln Davis and Bart Gordon in redistricting..payback in Lincoln's case for doing the same thing to Van Hilleary.

by: Shinigami @ Mon Jan 05, 2009 at 20:26:08 PM CST

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The last Repub Governor was also a disaster

I'm sure most in Tennessee remember him. Didn't he propose a new state income tax? It cuts both ways.

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Jan 06, 2009 at 09:13:56 AM CST

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Yes,

Gov. Sundquist, the last GOP governor did propose a state income tax. While I think Wamp and Haslam are their best candidates, I think it is a toss up race against either of them. We need to target the governor's race in Tennessee to help rebuild the party in my home state.

by: publius2481 @ Tue Jan 06, 2009 at 19:49:20 PM CST

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