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SSP Daily Digest: 6/5

by: Crisitunity

Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 1:16 PM EDT


NY-Sen-B: The speculation about a primary challenge had in the last month mostly shifted over from Rep. Carolyn McCarthy to Rep. Steve Israel and now Rep. Carolyn Maloney, but in case there was still any doubt, McCarthy made it official yesterday that she won't be challenging Kirsten Gillibrand in the Senate primary. Is this another tea leaf that Maloney is, in fact, running? (McCarthy said she'd stand down if someone younger ran, and although it may not be what McCarthy had in mind, Maloney, at 60, is 4 years younger.) Maloney did confirm her phone chat with Joe Biden, but said he didn't try to push her out of the race. Meanwhile, Gillibrand got two endorsements that are important in the African-American community: Al Sharpton and Rep. Greg Meeks. (All three are key David Paterson allies, so perhaps not too surprising.)

NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall, who's been Secretary of State since 1996, hasn't been the subject of much Senate speculation. However, she just publicly expressed her interest (while saying that she's not actively testing the waters). Marshall ran for Senate once before, finishing third in the 2002 Democratic primary behind Erskine Bowles and Dan Blue.

CO-Gov: Bill Ritter may be facing a tough re-election bid, so the last thing he needs to be doing is turning friends into enemies... so it's strange to see him so frequently ticking off labor, most recently the firefighters' union by vetoing a bill that would have given them collective bargaining rights. And on top of that, he's a terrorist sympathizer... at least according to Rep. Mike Coffman, who doesn't like that Ritter blocked expansion of a local Army training site.

OR-Gov: Although he's been reluctant to show any interest in the race, don't fully rule out Rep. Peter DeFazio yet. Hot on the heels of ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber having his coming-back-out party in front of the state movers-and-shakers at Portland's City Club, now DeFazio will have his turn addressing them in two weeks. Hmmm... after several months worrying that neither DeFazio nor Kitzhaber would get into the race, now I'm left wondering what happens if both of them get in?

VT-Gov: Democrats have seemed lukewarm about taking on Gov. Jim Douglas the last few cycles, but there seems to be more optimism this time, and it's attracting more contenders. State Senator Susan Bartlett (who chairs Appropriations) announced her candidacy, joining ex-Lt. Gov. Doug Racine and possibly SoS Deb Markowitz. One item of note that Steve catches: Douglas, who's been in office since Howard Dean's 2002 retirement, hasn't yet announced that he's running for re-election. There may be a growing sense that the seat could be open.

VA-St. House: Josh Grossman from Progressive Punch, guest blogging at 538, takes an interesting look at Democratic chances for flipping Virginia's House of Delegates in the 2009 election (the last one prior to Virginia redistricting). It includes a nice chart ranking the swing districts according to 2008 presidential percentage... although it's dismaying to see how many don't have a Democratic candidate yet.

WA-Wahkiakum County Clerk: A never-before-elected retired musician by the name of Krist Novoselic has filed to run for the position of county clerk in Wahkiakum County (approx. population 4,000) in the fall 2009 election. Although he's been involved in Democratic Party politics as a committeman, he's running as "prefers Grange Party" rather than as a Dem, probably because of his appreciation of the Grange, a populist movement from the turn of the previous century (or else he just misspelled "Grunge Party").

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 6/5
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I think Elaine Marshall
would be a great candidate in NC.

I would agree if
she was about 15 years younger.  She will be 65 by the time she is sworn in.  She's a fine lady, and I voted for her in 2002 against Erskine Bowles.  My understanding from a friend of mine who works for Marshall is that she plans to retire in 2012.  She's been a heck of a good Secretary of State for NC since 1997.

[ Parent ]
Marshall would be great
and is not too old.  There are lots and lots of Senators over the age of 65. Besides, if she only served a single terms, there would be a new generation of Council of State members ready to step up by 2016.

Marshall would be a more progressive Democrat than any of Shuler, Dalton, or McIntire.


[ Parent ]
GA-Gov
Self-proclaimed Bush Democrat Vernon Jones (former CEO of DeKalb County and loser of the 2008 Democratic Senatorial primary) has expressed interest.  Gag.  http://blogs.ajc.com/political...

Also on the Democratic side, Ray City (population: 746!) Mayor Carl Camon is in: http://www.valdostadailytimes....

Interestingly, both Camon and Jones are black, which may not be helpful to Thurbert Baker (although I for one suspect Baker's support with the black electorate is overstated).  Also, apparently Ray City is 75% WHITE.  If Camon represented a larger majority white city (say: Sandy Springs), that would be really impressive.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


Can we get Marshall to re-defeat Jones?
Or would that just be a useless waste of resources?

Then again, Jones running might be a useless waste of resources, period.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...


[ Parent ]
I think you're thinking Jim Martin
And I think Barnes (or Baker) will dispatch Jones pretty easily.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Yes I mean Martin


Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
RI-Gov: Republican removal strategy?
So, what with the recent "removal" of Huntsman, Leach, and McHugh (and before these, LaHood), anyone have a hunch as to whether Obama would try to get Lincoln Chafee appointed to something, or whether he'd be interested?

(Yes, I know he's not technically a Republican anymore.)

Though, I don't live in Rhode Island, and I'm not too familiar with Chafee, but I kinda do like his style and wouldn't mind (personally) if he won the governorship.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...


I'd support Chafee
Lincoln would be a fine governor for Rhode Island.  The only issue I have with him is over free trade, and that would be a moot point as governor.

Anyone willing to buck the neocons, even if they are a republican (or was a republican) deserves some respect.  


[ Parent ]
I would as well
Sounds like an eventual SSP poll: As a Virginia resident would you vote for Chaffee, the Democrat, or the Republican?

[ Parent ]
I'd vote Democrat
assuming they didn't put up a total buffoon who's polling in third place.  In that case, I'd go with Chaffee to ensure the Republican doesn't sneak by.

But given the highly capable candidates the Dems are looking at, we're pretty likely to poll in second place, if not first, no matter who we nominate.


[ Parent ]
Do you mean Rhode Island?
Otherwise, we're looking at a poll of Virginia residents as to whether they'd vote Chafee, a generic Democrat, Steve Laffey, or Lizard People, to govern the state of Florida.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Oy
Virginia on my mind til Tuesday at least.

Yes, I mean RI.


[ Parent ]
Agreed
A moot point. If anyone took him on for his stance on free trade, itd be like Angelides taking on Ahnold for being a neo-con. As its irrelevant to the job at hand.

[ Parent ]
PPP Marshall-Burr Poll
From Public Policy Polling in March:
In a hypothetical contest with Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, Burr leads 43-35. Despite running for the Senate in 2002 and serving in statewide office for over ten years, a majority of North Carolina voters don't know enough about her to hold a positive or negative opinion. Among those who do, 28% say they view her favorably with 19% holding an unfavorable view of her.

PPP also tested Marshall against Dole two years ago and found her trailing 46-35.



Wow
She's been Secretary of State for 13 years and still few people even know her? How effective of a career could she have possibly had in that case?  

[ Parent ]
Elaine is low profile
There is nothing exciting about Marshall except she's done a fine job as SOS.  She's not in the news seeking publicity, and she hasn't done anything that embarrassed our state.    

What is troubling is that she would be 65 by the time she is in the senate.  I voted for Elaine in 2002, but I would have trouble voting for her now because of the age issue.  From what I've been told from a person that reports to Elaine is that she's most likely will retire in 2012 as our SOS.  I was led to believe that she would not run for senate from my friend's statements.  I don't believe she could defeat Burr because she would not bring a lot of energy to the campaign.  In 2002, I thought she would have done better than Bowles, but that's because Bowles is closely tied to Clinton and Clinton was not very popular in NC at that time.  


[ Parent ]
Update from PPP
From PPP today:
With the news that Elaine Marshall is at least ever so slightly considering a Senate bid it seems worth revisiting how she fared when we polled her against Richard Burr back in March:

She trailed 43-35 in a potential contest. That eight point deficit is the best we've found of anyone we've polled against Burr with the exception of Roy Cooper and Mike McIntyre.

At the same time it was interesting that even after 12 years in statewide office, 53% of North Carolinians didn't express an opinion one way or the other about whether they view Marshall favorably. So her initial name recognition- which I've repeatedly said is not a good criterion for Democrats to use in choosing a candidate- is actually not that high.

I don't know how Marshall's fundraising would be but female candidates certainly have done well statewide in recent NC elections.



[ Parent ]
(GA) HD-109
I didn't realize it until today, but we have a candidate here by the name of Jim Nichols.  

This is one of those districts that seems to be a ticking timebomb for the Republicans.  It's smack dab in the middle of Henry County (centered on McDonough).  Estimates from the 2000 census put the district at about 17-18% black and Hispanic, but I would imagine that's increased.  Plus, this is a middle-ring suburban district, so there is some urbanization happening.  Henry County saw it's Democratic performance rapidly increase.  I think we may have a chance here.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


Interesting
I tried to recreate the district in DRA.  It wasn't a perfect match, but it indicated that both the black and Hispanic populations doubled within the district since 2000 and that whites are only just over 60% of the district's population.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Governor rankings
Stu Rothenberg put his out again (and despite his useless commentary, his rankings are usually pretty good).

He continues to make rankings that are outside of the pundit consensus but ones that I can agree with.  For instance, he sees Florida as leaning towards a Dem pickup, despite the polls that put McCollum a couple points ahead, and the general sense of toss-up-ness of the race.  He also sees us having a clear advantage in New York, despite the miserable polls on Paterson.  They keep testing him against Rudy but I'd be surprised if he ran.


Interesting
That he has NJ and VA at tossup. I agree on Virginia but I think Jersey is ever so slightly leaning to Christie. Still hopeful that Corzine can turn it around though.

[ Parent ]
Just going by the polls
Corzine looks screwed.  But Stu takes the past into consideration, and as we all know NJ is a very tough nut for the GOP to crack, even with unpopular Democrats.  I wouldn't bet money either way.

[ Parent ]
I think his Georgia rating is right


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Virginia House of Delegates
I will say, we have a lot of theoretically good candidates running this cycle. I've been looking through the fundraising reports, and I've been surprised to see how many Democratic challengers are raising some serious cash this cycle.

In most places in America...
Nirvana's blasphemous 'Heart Shaped Box' music video might come back to haunt Novoselic but possibly not in this town, if its anything like WA state as a whole (quite secular and culturally liberal).

nope
Novoselic is locally popular in Wahkiakum County (though it is nothing like the state as a whole).  But he's not really running for clerk as he said he would vote for his opponent and resign if elected.  He's making a statement about our ridiculous top-2 primary.

[ Parent ]

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