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SSP Daily Digest: 5/26

by: Crisitunity

Tue May 26, 2009 at 1:53 PM EDT

• PA-Sen: Now that Rep. Steve Israel got chased out of the New York Senate race, the Dems have turned their negative-charm offensive to Rep. Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania. No phone call from the POTUS, apparently, but the DSCC and Bob Menendez are on the case. (Sestak has been dialing down the rhetoric on Arlen Specter in the last week, so he may already be arriving at this decision on own.) Meanwhile, on the GOP side of the ledger, the party seems reconciled to Pat Toomey's candidacy. They've stopped (publicly, at least) looking for a more moderate alternative to Toomey for the primary.

• OK-Sen: Insiders seem to believe that Tom Coburn is going to opt for re-election to the Senate, despite his public unenthusiasm. Potential successors Reps. Tom Cole and Dan Boren both told the Oklahoman that they're confident he'll run again.

• FL-Sen: He hadn't sounded likely to run even before Charlie Crist got into the race, but Rep. Ron Klein finally made it official that he won't run for Senate and will run for re-election instead. If state Sen. Dan Gelber jumps to the AG race, that leaves only Rep. Kendrick Meek alone for the nomination. (H/t Senate Guru.)

• IL-Sen: With the Republicans steeling themselves for the possibility that Rep. Mark Kirk doesn't come to save them in the Senate race, they're starting to coalesce around an unexpected Plan B: Steve Preston, who was the HUD Secretary during the last year of the Bush administration. Preston has never been elected before, and "Bush cabinet" isn't exactly good resume material these days, but he would at least bring fundraising connections to the table.

• NY-Gov: Ed Cox, a Manhattan lawyer best known for being Richard Nixon's son-in-law, is considering the New York Governor's race. He's a behind-the-scenes guy (he ran the McCain campaign in New York and may run for the next state GOP chair), but may emerge from behind the curtain to run if Rudy Giuliani doesn't get into the race. Also, Siena has another poll (PDF) of both the Gov & Sen races, but little has changed except for a drop in support for gay marriage.

• NC-08: The NRCC's plans to mount a high-profile challenge to freshman Rep. Larry Kissell in the 8th just got intercepted. Mike Minter, former Carolina Panthers safety who's never run for office but is well-connected among local megachurchers, declined to run after a lot of wooing. (I could have said Minter punted, but that wouldn't have made as much sense.)

• AL-05: The Republicans did land an African-American candidate to run against freshman Rep. Parker Griffith in the Huntsville-based 5th, though, albeit a lower-profile one. Lester Phillip is a navy veteran who's currently the state GOP's "minority outreach director."

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 5/26

Tags: 2010 House Open Seat Watch, NY-Sen-B, Polls, Daily Digests, PA-Sen, Joe Sestak, Arlen Specter, Pat Toomey, OK-Sen, Tom Coburn, Tom Cole, Dan Boren, FL-Sen, Ron Klein, Kendrick Meek, dan gelber, IL-Sen, Steve Preston, Mark Kirk, NY-Gov, Ed Cox, Rudy Giuliani, AL-05, Lester Phillip, Parker Griffith, NC-08, Mike Minter, Larry Kissell, FL-22, (All Tags)

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SSP Daily Digest: 5/26 | 36 comments

FL-Sen: For what it's worth

North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns appears to still be in the FL-Sen Democratic primary. He hasn't generated many headlines to speak of, but he is still nominally in for the time being.

Check out the Guru's blog at http://www.senateguru.com/

by: Senate Guru @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 13:02:17 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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he would give Meek a debating partner

in the primary election debates, to get practice for the general election debates with Crist. (assuming that there are any).

by: homerun @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 20:26:07 PM CDT

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by: you @ soon

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I guess the Republicans

had hoped Minter would get the evangelical black vote and be able to appeal to enough of that Demographic to beat Kissell.

Still, a steady stream of not so good news for the GOP on the recruitment front. I'm cautiously optimistic for gains in the house, depending on the continuing fortunes of Obama's presidency. A filibuster proof senate seems all but assured right now, but Democrats still could lose some house seats, though its looking less and less likely. Governorships seem like the worst front. While Democrats seem heavily favored to win California, Rhode Island, Hawaii, and Nevada, they look like they're gonna go bust in NJ and Virginia, and in the 2010 cycle also lose Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee and possibly Michigan and fail to retake Arizona. And while they have a good shot at Florida and Minnesota, Oregon, Iowa, Wisconsin and Colorado look like they're going to be tough races.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 13:08:19 PM CDT

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I thought Minter was not a good candidate for NC-08

I grew up in NC-08, and while this district is in the bible belt, you probably have more people who are turned off by the religious evangelicals than you turned on.

This district is hard to understand. It's a culturally conservative district, but at the same time most are very skeptical about candidates that are tied with the evangelical churches. A candidate must run on economic issues as opposed to social issues. What hurt Hayes was his vote for CAFTA. Hayes received heavy pressure to vote for CAFTA, and that is what eventually cost him the election in 2008. He would have lost in 2006 had the Democrats taken an interest in Kissell.

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 14:01:04 PM CDT

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Both parties

will have many gubernatorial seats that will be tough to hold (In this type of budget environment it is hard to say anyone is safe.) For us, I think Kansas is gone, and NJ, Virginia, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Penn., and Michigan are all going to be competative races. Iowa could maybe become competative (I do not see it thought) and Wyoming would be lost if Freudenthal declines to run for reelection. For the Republicans I think they lose Rhode Island, Hawaii, and Nevada, while California, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Alabama will be competative. South Dakota could be competative (If Stephanie Herseth Sandlin runs for us) and if Perry wins the Republican nomination in Texas that could be problematic for the Republicans.

by: publius2481 @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 14:27:39 PM CDT

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Any word on Wyoming?

I can't see it anywhere within y'all's lists.

I'd ask about Idaho, but with 2008 over, it's suddenly less interesting. Well, except ID-01.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed May 27, 2009 at 11:05:20 AM CDT

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Not sure where House gains are

Minnick, Bright, Griffith, Kratovil, and Perriello are probably goners for sure. We'll knock off Cao. IL-10, PA-06, and DE-AL are easy pickups if vacated, but that's far from a sure thing. Maybe a seat or two in CA, but most of those "Obama Republicans" are entrenched incumbents in the Kirk-Reichert mold.

With such a broad Democratic tent built up over the past two cycles, I'd view a net loss of 6-8 seats or fewer as quite a victory. We're holding a good number of districts we don't "deserve" and those seats flipping back is only natural.

by: TrueBlueDem @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 14:40:46 PM CDT

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I'd say just Bright and Minnick

Griffith's seat has been electing Democdrats for a while. Perriello's only narrowly went for McCain. Isn't Andy Harris going to run again.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

by: TheUnknown285 @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 14:57:17 PM CDT

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Id say only Minnick

is a complete goner.

Bright can hold it, Griffith should be fine, Perriello will be tough, and Kratovil depends on if Harris is the nominee.

by: Andrew @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 15:20:01 PM CDT

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I see Bright, Griffith, and Perriello as safe

Those are traditionally Democratic districts. Perriello is a great candidate and defeated a popular incumbent. Bright raised little money but still managed to win the race due to his popularity as mayor. And I don't see Griffith getting as tough of a race as his first election.

by: Progressive America @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 15:27:36 PM CDT

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Don't see that.

Minnick's got a steep slope. Bright and Kratovil somewhat less so, but Democrats hold tougher seats than theirs. Griffith and Perriello are in traditionally Democratic districts, and, in Perriello's case, he beat a longtime incumbent who had no real reason to lose beyond the voters just liking Perriello more (Goode was an asshole, sure, but no more of an asshole than previously), in a district Obama nearly won.

by: SC @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 15:33:05 PM CDT

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I think we can break even

I agree with you that the 5 seats you have mentioned could swing back to the GOP. Of the 5, Minnick has the biggest uphill battle. I think Bright and Griffith will both survive, and Kratovil is actually a pretty good fit for his district...he should also survive. Perriello will have a fight on his hands if the GOP promote a credible candidate...Big IF.

There are other Dem seats that could come into play, but I don't see more than a handful at this time. TX-17 could be a close one, but Edwards seems to be fairly entrenched here. Travis Childers could be endangered too...I hope he can survive for another cycle.

I don't see Cao surviving in LA-02. Nothing is certain, but I don't see him serving another term. We should capture several seats from the GOP by retirement, especially if Kirk, Castle, King et al pursue a higher office.

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 15:58:05 PM CDT

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I think Perrielo is a goner

its swingish district and he's a strong campaigner. Bright and Minnick, possible, or even probable. Against Harris again Kartovil is good, rematches have a bad history and he's actually a pretty good candidate for this district.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 16:40:25 PM CDT

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You think Perriello is a goner?

Because it's a swingish district and he's a strong campaigner? Should there have been a "don't" or something there?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

by: TheUnknown285 @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 16:44:45 PM CDT

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their definitely should

but hey, the other day I accidentally posted comment saying this:

maybe that just their that

I left out most of my thought. I'm turning into Paula Abdul lol.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 18:34:03 PM CDT

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A nasty combination of ADD and sleep deprivation often cause me to write interesting things.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

by: TheUnknown285 @ Wed May 27, 2009 at 11:56:47 AM CDT

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Don't give up on Michigan

John Cherry is a cagy politician with a lot of support here. Plus the Repubs are going to beat each other up all winter and spring, so whoever they come out with will be bloodied and poverty-stricken. They have three candidates--Pete Hoekstra, Terri Lynn Land, and Mike Cox--who are starting off on relatively equal footing, and any one of them will have a tough job beating Cherry IMHO.

by: jimmich @ Wed May 27, 2009 at 10:04:33 AM CDT

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PA-Sen

Specter already praising SCOTUS pick. I don't see a primary being viable.

by: conspiracy @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 13:23:36 PM CDT

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There's still an opening.

Specter has made it clear that he's only interested in preserving his career and will take any stand he thinks will do that come election time then change tact completely after the fact. He doesn't have any principles and sure doesn't seem to respect the people he represents. The opening line for Sestak would be something like "I don't change my positions come election year." or "You'll always know where I stand." Thus the meme changes from Specter being a bad Democrat to someone you just can't believe.

That said, I'm troubled by the effort to get him out of the race. A few of us here argued that while the White House getting Israel out of the New York race made sense strategically, it was a bad sign when it camed to a commitment to letting voters decide and might play out elsewhere, namely in Pennsylvania. So far, the White House hasn't jumped in this one, though Menendez and the DSCC have. I'm hoping though that Sestak isn't dissuaded from all this. Specter might be our best buddy as long as the threat of a challenge looms, but once that goes away he's bound to stab us in the back.

Stop complaining and whining and get to work.

by: ARDem @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 15:03:16 PM CDT

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yeah

especially assuming that the CW is correct in that Specter will vote cloture (if not the bill itself) on a tweaked version of EFCA.
At that point, the unions will be back in his corner.
And then at that point, Sestak would be an fool to give up his Congressional seat to run against Specter.

I feel a bit badly for Sestak. But there should be other opportunities for him in the future.
After all, Specter is old (79), and has had really terrible health issues. He well may not serve out all six years of his next term.

by: homerun @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 21:12:46 PM CDT

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I feel worse for us.

I'd feel safer with Brutus and Cassius in the Big Tent than I do with Specter.

Stop complaining and whining and get to work.

by: ARDem @ Wed May 27, 2009 at 02:01:36 AM CDT

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Eliot Spitzer

I'm surprised that he's rebounding with voters, not surprised with Jewish voters, but with young voters it's surprising (guess young people aren't as enthused about upholding family values as their parents once were). If Spitzer does decide to return to politics, is there a chance he could be governor or AG again?

by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 13:53:16 PM CDT

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Not in any law enforcement position

Senate maybe?

by: conspiracy @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 13:58:02 PM CDT

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I think it's mostly nostalgia.

Paterson is making Spitzer look like FDR.

by: Kanamit @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 14:41:26 PM CDT

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Were there any polls before he retired?

As we see with Vitter, a huge number of people really don't care about (heterosexual) screwing around anymore... at least not in comparison to governing well.

by: tommypaine @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 19:22:12 PM CDT

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Coburn running is bad news

It means every state in play this year will be on our turf, except Kentucky (with Missouri a coin flip state, and Florida not in play).

Arizona, Kansas and Oklahoma could have been in play this year (plus Iowa), which would make the Reps spends money in states they should easily carry. As of now, they won't have to spend a nickel and we won't be able to make any inroads. To the contrary, Kansas and Oklahoma become far redder, out of play for 15 years at least.

by: tommypaine @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 19:27:04 PM CDT

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thank Obama for Kansas

sucking up our candidates.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 19:53:02 PM CDT

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Huh?

I wouldn't call that a problem. Particularly with their open seats. Easier to win and easier to hold.

by: conspiracy @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 20:10:07 PM CDT

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Winning seats you should win isn't how you grow

2010 was shaping up to be a generational wipeout, but now it shapes up as the Republicans having to defend no red state but Kentucky. That will lead to those red states being redder, reapportionment being tougher, and so on.

I should add that Texas now looks to be our second best red state, which is good considering we need that one seat to make reapportionment fair, but still the Texas Senate race is a long shot.

by: tommypaine @ Wed May 27, 2009 at 02:48:18 AM CDT

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Come on

Pretty difficult to grow when you already have 60 Senators in your caucus. And wouldn't you much rather have Democrats in states like New Hampshire, Missouri and Ohio than in Oklahoma when those incumbents are much more likely to support the kind of legislation you care about? Seems like a no brainer to me.

by: conspiracy @ Wed May 27, 2009 at 05:00:48 AM CDT

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IL-Sen If Kirk bails,

The second time could be the charm running for the GOP in the IL senate race for you-know-who.
He's probably rested up from losing his presidential bid last November (coming in 7th in the overall popular vote with 47,768 votes).

by: homerun @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 20:53:22 PM CDT

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who?

Keyes didn't run for prez did he?

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 21:11:00 PM CDT

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Yeah he did!

Alan Keyes (America's Independent Party) received 47,768 votes; listed in three states: Colorado and Florida, plus California (listed as American Independent), and also had write-in status in Kentucky, Ohio, Texas, and Utah.

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog

by: fitchfan28 @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 21:37:56 PM CDT

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1/3 of the votes needed

to win a typical Congressional district. Good show, Alan! LMAO.

by: TrueBlueDem @ Tue May 26, 2009 at 23:04:24 PM CDT

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I hope Keyes never sees this article

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

by: mkpowers @ Wed May 27, 2009 at 00:49:38 AM CDT

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WTF

Richardson has since distinguished herself in Congress largely by having defaulted on more home loans (eight) than any other member of Congress, perhaps giving her unique insight on America's mortgage crisis.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed May 27, 2009 at 11:04:28 AM CDT

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