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SSP Daily Digest: 10/19

by: Crisitunity

Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 3:28 PM EDT


AZ-Sen: This is good news for John McCain... 's opponent. Rodney Glassman, Tucson city councilor, has formed an exploratory committee to vie for the 2010 Democratic Senate nomination. With the state's top-tier candidates avoiding the race, an up-and-comer looking to increase his statewide profile like Glassman is probably the best we'll do here. (H/t Nonpartisan.)

CT-Sen: You just know that the moment pro wrestling CEO Linda McMahon launched her Senate run, the nation's Democratic opposition researchers all started doing a merry jig knowing how much work would be available for them. The first wave is already out, leading off with a clips reel of "PG-rated" (McMahon's words) WWE highlights including simulated rape and necrophilia. Meanwhile, newly minted teabagger ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, realizing that he doesn't have a lock on the necrophile vote any more, has continued his march to the right, begging forgiveness for his previous support of EFCA and cap and trade.

FL-Sen: I always thought the idea of a Corrine Brown challenge to Kendrick Meek in the Democratic Senate primary was weird from the outset, but despite putting up some decent fundraising numbers in the third quarter, last Friday she pulled the plug on any bid. Rep. Brown will run for re-election in the dark-blue 3rd, where she's been since 1992.

Meanwhile, Charlie Crist is actually starting to sweat his once sure-thing Senate bid. Although no one has actually leaked it, rumors keep persisting about that Chamber of Commerce poll that has Crist posting only a 44-30 lead over Marco Rubio in the GOP primary. Also worrisome for the Crist camp: much of that $1 million that Rubio pulled in was from in-state small donors -- you know, the kind that actually vote -- rather than out-of-state movement conservative bigwigs. With that in mind, Crist is already tapping into his big cash stash, airing radio spots in the conservative Ft. Myers market touting his government-slashing abilities.

IL-Sen: Departing (well, maybe) Rep. Danny Davis gave his endorsement in the Democratic primary to former Chicago Urban League head Cheryle Jackson, rather than to establishment candidate state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. Fellow Rep. Bobby Rush has already endorsed Jackson.

KS-Sen: Dan Glickman, who teased Politico earlier this summer with some vague whispers of suggestions of hints that he might run for Senate, says he'll step down from his current gig (chairman of the MPAA) in September 2010. If he sticks to that timetable, that clearly puts him out of the running for any return to politics this cycle. At 64, and facing what is now an almost implacably red state back at home, Glickman sounds like he's done with elective office for good, saying he thinks he'll "end up in the nonprofit or academic world." (D)

MA-Sen: Rep. Michael Capuano is way behind the polls of the actual voters, but he's closing in on a majority of the state's House delegation in his corner for the Democratic Senate special election nod. Today, Rep. Stephen Lynch, the state's least liberal House member and a surprise non-participant in the Senate primary, endorsed Capuano; he joins Reps. Jim McGovern, John Tierney, and Barney Frank.

SC-Sen: Democratic attorney Chad McGowan made it official; he launched his Senate candidacy against Jim DeMint. He's the most credible candidate who has stepped up so far.

IL-Gov: The Paul Simon Institute on Public Policy issued a poll last week of the Democratic gubernatorial primary, finding a lot of undecideds (and "someone elses") but that incumbent Pat Quinn leads state comptroller Dan Hynes 34-17.

KS-Gov: Democratic state party chair Larry Gates squashed earlier rumors; he won't be getting into the gubernatorial race (or any statewide race), leaving the Dems still candidate-less.

NJ-Gov: More golden admissions from Chris Christie, from a video recorded several years ago but released right now for maximum effect by Team Corzine. In Christie's words:

Listen, I plead guilty to having raised money for Governor George W. Bush because I thought he was the best person to be President of the United States. And I did it in a completely appropriate fashion and enthusiastically for the President....

There's no mystery to the fact that I was appointed to this job because, in part, I had a relationship with the President of the United States.

Anybody who receives a political appointment -- I am a political appointee -- there's going to be some measure of politics involved with that appointment.

And Christie may be sending the wrong message right now, as revelations fly about his luxurious travel overspending while US Attorney: now he's saying as Governor, his top advisers will be able to travel with fewer restrictions than under the current administration, at taxpayers' expense, naturally. Meanwhile, over the weekend Jon Corzine picked up the endorsement of the two biggest fish in the news pond, the New York Times and the Phildelphia Inquirer. (Christie can boast about the East Brunswick Home News Tribune, however.)

VA-Gov: Speaking of endorsements, Creigh Deeds got the big one too, from the Washington Post, and in very unambiguous fashion as well (recall, of course, that the WaPo endorsement in the primary was the corner-turning moment for Deeds). Meanwhile, while it doesn't seem set in stone, there are reports that Barack Obama will campaign on Deeds' behalf after all.

FL-08: With the current field against Rep. Alan Grayson looking pretty underwhelming, Republican Winter Park physician Ken Miller, who had been considering a run in the 24th (where the primary opposition is of a higher-caliber), has decided to move over to the 8th instead. Which isn't to say that the never-before-elected Miller seems terribly, uh, whelming.

FL-19: One of the likeliest candidates to run for the seat being vacated by Robert Wexler has already declined the shot: state Sen. Jeremy Ring won't run. While he cited family concerns, he did also point to the fact that little of his district overlaps with the 19th. Fellow state Sen. Ted Deutch is starting to take on front-runner status.

IN-07: Butler University professor and perennial candidate (including the 2004 Senate race against Evan Bayh) Marvin Scott is back, and this time he's going up against Rep. Andre Carson in the Indianapolis-based 7th.

NY-23: The independent expenditures are flying in the 23rd, with $100K from the SEIU in favor of Bill Owens, $9,700 from the Club for Growth $9,500 from the Susan B. Anthony List, both on behalf of Conservative Doug Hoffman, and $123K from the NRCC against Owens (which includes $22K for a poll from aptly-named POS -- so if we don't see that soon, we'll know the NRCC doesn't like the results). The SEIU money is paying for anti-Dede Scozzafava radio spots, another blow for GOPer Scozzafava, who had been expected to get some labor support. Scozzafava did get the somewhat belated endorsement of Long Island's Rep. Peter King, though, one of the few other remaining labor-friendly GOPers. Finally, rumors abound in the rightosphere (starting with the Tolbert Report) that Mike Huckabee, who'll be addressing the state Conservative Party in Syracuse soon, won't actually be endorsing Hoffman.

OH-02: Rep. Jean Schmidt, who had to beat back a primary challenge in 2008 from state Rep. Todd Brinkman, will face another primary bid from an elected official in 2010: Warren County Commissioner Mike Kilburn. Kilburn says "there's a movement to elect more conservative politicians to Washington." Because, uh, Schmidt isn't conservative enough?

OK-05: A sort-of big name is getting into the field in the open seat race left behind by Rep. Mary Fallin (running for Oklahoma governor): Corporation Commissioner Jeff Cloud, who opened up his exploratory committee. He starts off lagging behind in fundraising, though, as state Rep. Mike Thompson and former state Sen. Kevin Calvey have already been running for a while  now.

Mayors: After a closer-than-expected primary, Boston mayor Tom Menino is still leading in the polls. The 16-year incumbent leads city councilor Michael Flaherty 52-32 in a Boston Globe poll (down from a 61-23 lead in a May poll).

DSCC: Barack Obama seems like he's finally shifting into campaign mode. He'll be headlining a DSCC fundraiser in Miami next week.

Voting Rights: After spending years as a political football that gets kicked around from bill to bill, it looks like the push to get Washington DC a full voting Representative is resurfacing again. This time, it may be attached to the 2010 defense appropriations bill. (Watch the Republicans vote against it anyway.)

Fundraising: Pollster.com has some handy graphics displaying 3rd quarter receipts, expenditures, and cash on hand graphed against each other for Senate candidates. (We'll have our own Senate chart up today, hopefully; if you missed James's House chart over the weekend, it's here.)

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/19
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Rubio in the making...
The report goes into detail suggesting Rubio is pulling in a lot of funds from in-state and a good number are in small donations (implying he has a large following among primary voters). This is looking ripe for an upset (assuming its a closed primary) and I'm beginning to think the anti-Crist forces (i.e. Jeb Bush and co.) are lining up behind Rubio b/c they see him as their ticket back to the White House. He might very well be their Obama since any one with an ounce of sense knows the GOP is facing a near-permanent demographic deficiency if they continue as the party of NO and angry southern white males. Moreover, Rubio speaks their language so well (whether he believes it or not is irrelevant), he'll sufficiently marry the wing nuts with the emerging Hispanic vote who will vote for him in very large numbers if he is the nominee (aspirational etc). The Dems are better off having Crist beat Rubio, even though Rubio could run against Bill Nelson two years later. However, if Rubio beats Crist, he'll beat Meek and then you have the GOP's Obama in the making. He may lack the competence and vision but he has the political skills and the face to sell it, unlike Pawlenty and Jindal.

I don't buy it
Any candidate widely supported by the GOP base won't be a electable nationwide candidate for President just because he got past a lame Democratic Senatorial candidate.

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog

[ Parent ]
I can ...
If Rubio (David) beats Crist (Goliath) and the Democrat (isn't there a better known candidate than Meeks ??) he could make Jindal a distant memory.  LA is much smaller and less 'swing' than FL. Not to mention there are more Hispanics than Indian-Americans in the country.

Not to mention Rubio can talk circles around Jindal.  Rubio will be easier to beat perhaps than Crist in 2010, but if he wins, he is the new 'hot shot' of the GOP. He could be a presidential aspiratant as early as the 2016 race, easily.

Come September of next year, Democrats might be kicking themselves for letting Meeks get the nomination by default.  Is there not a ex-state officeholder that could run?  Somebody needs to step up in NC and FL just as Melacon did in LA.      


[ Parent ]
Screaming for Castor about now
mother or daughter.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
What is so horrible about Meeks?
Sure he floundered on his opinion on Crist a few months back; but what else makes him so damn horrible?

[ Parent ]
Hoffman getting money from NRCC?
$9,700 from the Club for Growth $9,500 from the Susan B. Anthony List, both on behalf of Conservative Doug Hoffman, and $123K from the NRCC (which includes $22K for a poll from aptly-named POS -- so if we don't see that soon, we'll know the NRCC doesn't like the results).

Or is this Scozzafava?

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog


Technically
it's listed as "against Owens." I'll add those two words.

[ Parent ]
Good news all around
Got my fingers crossed for Deeds to pull of the home stretch, remember he over-performs, and if Democrats get turned out last minute he would likely win. In 2005 he was behind more than five points in pre-election day polling but lost by 323 votes out of nearly 1.5 million cast, keep that in mind.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

ny-23 i hope hoffman wins
not because of his politics, he'll be a horrid congressman, but he'll energize the 3rd party libertarian movement.  he'll be a symbol of how "small govt values can win against teh 3vil librals."  more importantly any time a republican tries to argue that the libertarians can't win, they'll be able to point to hoffman.  libertarian and 3rd party candidates will have a bit more credibility.  this could syphon off millions of votes nationwide come 2010 and even the political playing field by splitting the right wing.

being normal is for the mediocre.

with all of Hoffman's support from wingnuts / teabaggers
is there even any evidence that Hoffman is libertarian?

[ Parent ]
not sure
but the libertarians are the ones who should do better in this climate (there the anti-gov party, the protesters are anti-gov, the republicans anti-gov credentials are in a shambles after the Bush administration) and any third party candidate would add credibility to the third parties.  the fact that his party is the "conservative party" only helps the libertarians

being normal is for the mediocre.

[ Parent ]
Just looked a bit further, and the Libertarians have rejected Hoffman too
per http://libertarianrepublican.b...

Doug Hoffman indicates opposition to same sex marriage and abortion. That is fine as a personal statement, but if as a politician he would seek to impose his viewpoint by supporting state or federal prohibitions, in my view, he is not a libertarian and I would not be inclined to support him unless I knew a whole lot more about him.

McMillan indicates opposition to all 3 candidates in the linked blog, so they're not a factor here.


[ Parent ]
a victory for a third party
suddenly makes a lot more third party candidates seem viable, even if they're not of the same party.  when looking at dagget's viability they look at ventura who A won and B was a member of the reform party when he won (later joining the IMP).  even if they're not of the same party, or ideologies, dagget supporters have pointed to ventura.  Pollina too, who was a member of the VT progressive party before becoming a indie.  all that matters is that it would be a right wing 3rd party win.

being normal is for the mediocre.

[ Parent ]
Who are you talking about?
First you're talking about Libertarians and Doug Hoffman in NY-23, now you're talking about generic 3rd parties and Chris Daggett in NJ.

Not all 3rd parties stand for the same thing. Far from it, in fact.

And then perhaps you're revealing your real agenda in you last phrase:

all that matters is that it would be a right wing 3rd party win.


[ Parent ]
Plus, he won as a third party candidate
due to a "flawed" GOP candidate.  All this would show is that if your two main parties have someone representing them on the ballot who many agree do not fit into said parties ideology, than 3rd parties can win.

In this case, a third party candidate winning isnt him winning on his accord, itd be him winning due to the GOP f'ing up.

Not much of a motivator to me.


[ Parent ]
paranoid much?
One, I'm not a right wing troll as you insinuated, check my history here, it's sporadic, but never rightwing.  second,
I'm not saying third parties stand for the same thing BUT that they are united in the sense that they're ostracized by the two major parties.  even though the greens and libertarians don't agree on anything, is it not unfathomable that a green candidate might say "I know it looks like I can't win, but look at ny-23, they didn't think the third party could win there either and he did."  MORE TO THE POINT conservatives and libertarians could say "look at ny-23.  they had the choice between a democrat a RINO and a real conservative running on a third party and the real conservative won."  this win would A create the illusion that the teabagger candidates were electable.  overly conservative insurgent candidates for republican nominations like Andy Harris or bill Sali (just examples) could say the race is proof that the voters are sick of RINOS.  this would give the republicans a bunch of candidates that either can't be elected or would turn a safe election into a tossup (Harris and Sali again).  secondly, the election would be able to prove, that in certain circumstances A THIRD PARTY CAN WIN.  ideology isn't important, the fact that a 3rd party won is.  

being normal is for the mediocre.

[ Parent ]
Hey! what response do you expect when you say
all that matters is that it would be a right wing 3rd party win.

As for the rest of your statement, I disagree with your presumption that

ideology isn't important

In addition the Andy Harris and Bill Sali examples apply in districts much more right-wing than NY-23 - unless you can present examples of such at the State Assembly / Senate level. I doubt you'll find any, but I don't know of more than a couple who represent the area at the State level.


[ Parent ]
We've seen succesfull third parties before
Jim Buckley was a Conservative Senator, the Progressives and Populists.

Didn't do much for their history.

What a strong third conservative party means is that neither the Democrats nor the Republicans are conservative enough for the people.

That wouldn't be good news.  


[ Parent ]
Hoffman's not a libertarian
Scozzafava is the libertarian...or at least the closest to it.  

[ Parent ]
Scozzafava is NOT a libertarian!
She is a RINO.

If she was a Libertarian Hoffman wouldn't be running. No Libertarian would support Card Check, vote as often as she did to raise taxes or be open to a public option in healthcare.

For the Left either a Scozzafava or Owens win is pick up over McHugh who had avery right wing voting record.

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[ Parent ]
She changed her positon on card check and tax raises


[ Parent ]
Scozzafava is a 95% R, not a RINO
Per Pete Sessions, NRCC chair,

Sessions assured Members that despite Scozzafava's moderate leanings - she has voted in support of gay marriage in the New York Assembly and favors some abortion rights - she will be voting with the Republican Conference 95 percent or more of the time.

Per http://projects.washingtonpost...

John McHugh has voted with a majority of his Republican colleagues 77.3% of the time during the current Congress.

Conclusion, Scozzafava would be significantly more of an R than McHugh.

btw, the NY Libertarians have declined to endorse any of the 3 candidates.


[ Parent ]
: )
I can't help put laugh when you suggests that Conservatives etc, will use evidence to make a point.

[ Parent ]
Yup
I'm rooting for Hoffman too. for the same reason.  I think it will be put the GOP between a rock and a hard p[lace outside the South, nominating sane candidates will result in a third party wingnut, nominating wingnuts will elect Democrats.

I even think that there is a chance that Sarah Palin might run third party if there is a chance she can make a splash.


[ Parent ]
But wouldn't Owens winning
make that statement?

A Conservative win means a Conservative can win a three way race.  


[ Parent ]
Sure
when two supposed liberals split the vote.

[ Parent ]
Still
that would mean a Conservative can win a Presidential election when two supposed liberals split the vote.

it's a dangerous game, and I'd rather see conservatives go down EVEN as two supposed liberals split the vote.


[ Parent ]
If Hoffman wins, I think he could hold the seat
The district in question is used to electing Rs. For most up there, national norms of "wingnuts" don't hold sway.

Remember, in most counties up there,  they haven't elected a D to Congress for over 100 years.

I'm not even convinced that he could be displaced by redistricting, short of putting Scott Murphy or Mike Acruri at serious risk.

And do you want to risk having Palin one manufactured artificial scandal away from the White House?


[ Parent ]
He very possibly could
but he wouldn't be able to beat either Murphy or Arcuri when his district is split in a Presidential year.

There is no way in hell that Palin can win the Presidential election whether as a Republican or as an independent.  Unemployment could be at 20% and Palin would still lose to Obama.  She's that toxic.


[ Parent ]
I hope you're right
There is no way in hell that Palin can win the Presidential election whether as a Republican or as an independent.  Unemployment could be at 20% and Palin would still lose to Obama.  She's that toxic.  

But I could see her tapping into "populist" style fears, especially after some sort of terrorist incident.

While I don't believe that 9/11 was a right-wing setup, I wouldn't put one or more such incidents beyond them if Palin were the R candidate in 2012.


[ Parent ]
Not given her vast foreign policy experience
Seeing Russia from Alaska won't get it done, except with the wingnut base.  

Sarah Palin has a less than zero chance of becoming President.  I also don't think she has much chance to win the GOP nomination, as the money bosses are against her, so I wouldn't be surprised that her face-saving way out is a strong third party candidacy, and she could well pull 20-25% and win some states.


[ Parent ]
As for Murphy or Arcuri
Do you know anything about their current favorability ratings? I'd feel better about what you say if I knew they were significantly positive.

[ Parent ]
Don't know about that
but neither of them has a challenger yet. I wouldn't be surprised if potential challengers were holding off until the NY-23 special election is over -- if Owens wins, they might be discouraged from running.

[ Parent ]
In Murphy's district
they were waiting for Tedisco, who just bowed out last week.  Don't know what's holding them up in Arcuri's district -- he had a real scare last time and I expect they might be able to take him out this time with the right candidate.

[ Parent ]
JSmith you're not in reality on this......
First, Hoffman definitely could beat Arcuri.  A nobody almost beat him last year!  And he possibly could beat Murphy!  Hoffman would have both the GOP and Conservative lines on the ballot and would be an incumbent Congressman reprsenting a district no more conservative than what Murphy represents now, and not much more conservative than Arcuri's current seat.

Second, the redrawn lines in a couple years aren't necessarily going to eliminate Hoffman because there might just be a Governor Rudy to stop that.  For all our presumption that somehow a Democrat other than Paterson will be Governor by then, the fact is Paterson is running, Cuomo keeps saying he won't, and no one else of any stature is even threatening to run.  The longer we go without either Paterson bowing out or Cuomo or someone else credible jumping in anyway, the more we have to be nervous that the Governor's mansion is at real risk.

You keep having this notion in your head that somehow Hoffman is unelectable and pushes the GOP to unelectable candidates, and that's a naive notion betrayed by so many examples to the contrary.  Hoffman hasn't said or done anything to show he's anything other than a garden variety conservative.  Sure he's extreme, but no more so than most of the current House Republican Caucus including quite a few guys who hold purpling districts won by Obama, same as NY-23.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.


[ Parent ]
typo, there=they're


being normal is for the mediocre.

good for you
I cringed hardcore when I read that, hahahahahaha.  Someday our computers will be smart enough just to change that automatically.

[ Parent ]
KS-Gov
Not too upset Gates has declined to run. He'd be an okay sacrificial lamb against Brownback, but Brownback's not as popular as people think and has a long record of crazy wingnuttery in the Senate (like the time he illustrated a point on the floor with a 6-year-old's crayon drawing).

The moderate Republicans who voted for him in the past likely figured he couldn't do much damage in the Senate. But as Governor? Swingy JoCo suburbanites can kiss their good schools goodbye. And that might make them cross over, Sebelius-style, if there's a credible candidate in the wings. The only one that comes to mind who hasn't totally ruled out a run is minority leader and State Sen. Anthony Hensley. (state senators would be especially good because they won't have to give up their seats to run....but there are only 9 Democratic ones in the whole state)  I just pray Gates wasn't blowing smoke when he said there were "tremendously qualified" candidates available.  


Maybe
But I doubt even a politician of Sebelius' obvious talents would win by a comfortable margin over Brownback.  She would be able to put up a fight, which is more than can be said of most, but I suspect it would be Tossup/Lean R.  There are states which are just damn comfortable sending the minority party to the perceived-non-ideological governors mansion, but would never do it in a more ideological Senate race.  Wyoming is a prime example.  On the other side, so are Hawaii and Massachusetts.  I have a feeling Kansans think the same way.

[ Parent ]
He was talking about
the gubernatorial race.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Oops
Forgot that Brownback bailed on the Senate.  Brief lapse of sanity...that's now the Tiahrt-Moran race.  Sorry.

[ Parent ]
Wow
The word "Tiahrt" a "sanity" in the same post........

[ Parent ]
Compare that SIU/Simon Institute poll
Where Obama is at 64-36 approve amongst registered voters with a likely voter model which only approves of Obama by 56-44 and you see clearly how much Rasmussen favors the GOP. No wonder Kirk and Alexi are tied!

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...


"the necrophile vote"
I have no words for this.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

CA-44
Ken Calvert is being Investigated by the FBI over a supposed land deal he was trying to get.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

This guy is constantly on CREW's most corrupt congressmans list, Don't let this news get buried, Digg it

http://digg.com/politics/Yet_A...

Bill Hedrick for Congress


Actually let the news get buried for a while longer.
Give no chance for him to have to drop out/get primaired; then he gets slaughtered.  

[ Parent ]
I would really love to do that
But Hedrick is getting hammered in fundraising right now.

Bill Hedrick for Congress

[ Parent ]
Do Dems even have a OK-5 candidate?
Seems like we should at least put up a fight for this open seat--it's the bluest district in Oklahoma (which, granted, isn't saying much). But still, it's the type of district where a Blue Dog could beat a teabagger.

Anybody heard from Jim Roth, or any Dem with a track record of any kind?


Andrew Rice is from OK-05
but he's up for re-election in 2010, so he might not want to give up his seat.

The State Senate Minority Leader is also in the district.


[ Parent ]

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