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KS-03: Moore Won't Run Again

by: Crisitunity

Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 10:29 AM EST


Here's hoping this is an isolated incident and not the start of a trend:

U.S. Rep. Dennis Moore, a Democrat who confounded the GOP by winning six consecutive elections in a heavily Republican district, will not seek re-election next year, key Democrats said Sunday.

Moore, who represented Johnson, Wyandotte and a portion of Douglas counties, will issue a statement today explaining his decision and outlining his plans. Moore, 64, is expected to finish out his term, which ends in January 2011.

Maybe this shouldn't be a total surprise, as Moore was a rumored retirement in the immediate aftermath of last year's election, although he quickly resolved to run in 2010. As most of you know, open seats were where we really got killed in 1994, so hopefully Moore's reversal won't put ideas in the heads of too many other Blue Dogs feeling the heat in red-leaning districts.

"Heavily Republican" in the above quote is a bit of an overstatement, as Barack Obama narrowly won this district last year and it currently sits at R+3, making it now the most favorable part of Kansas to us. Former state Rep. Patricia Lightner is the only elected Republican already in the race (along with two unknowns), but everyone is already speculating that former state Sen. Nick Jordan (who ran in 2008, and given the trends that year, handled himself well, losing by 14 points), may now try again. Jordan is one of the few Kansas GOPers with appeal to both the parties' disparate moderate and conservative wings. As for the Democrats, most of the Dems' few state Senators in Kansas are found in this district, including Chris Steineger, who had made some noises this summer about running for Governor but didn't seem to follow through (Steineger may not be a good bet here, as he seems to have irritated most of the rest of the state's Democrats at various points).

UPDATE: Republican state Rep. and state House Appropriations chair Kevin Yoder leapt into action, forming an exploratory committee within hours.

LATER UPDATE: Politico reports that Jordan has told party leaders today that he'll be running. They also mention a POS internal that showed Moore with a 44/48 re-elect, which may have contributed to his re-think on retirement. On the Dem side, no one has stepped up yet, but people are focusing on Kansas City, KS mayor Joe Reardon as the best bet. Tom Wiggans, who just got into the gubernatorial race, could also possibly shift gears and jump over to the 3rd.

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KS-03: Moore Won't Run Again | 93 comments
One open seat is not the end of the world
But more than a few could cost us the House.  
Any Risk?
Could this seat flip to the GOP?
[ Parent ]
Yeah
considering the population split, it's possible that a Wyandotte/Lawrence candidate could win those areas and lose Johnson County by a large enough margin to lose the district
[ Parent ]
Any risk?
More like big risk.  It's a tossup and probably our second most at-risk open seat after LA-03 now.
[ Parent ]
Between LA-03 and KS-03
I would put ID-1 and at least half a dozen Southern seats.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
KS-03 may be R+3, but it's wealthy, suburban and thoroughly moderate. A teabagger would prompt moderate Republicans here to defect in droves.

Plus, don't forget Kratovil and Perreillo--both are more likely to go than this seat switching hands. And really, in an anti-incumbent year (as 2010 is shaping up to be), having a fresh candidate trying to hold the seat may not be the worst thing in the world. Obviously, though, it'd be a lot safer with Moore running for re-election.

[ Parent ]
Perriello sad to say
is gone IMO.  I predict that Kratovil will likely win if Andy Harris is the GOP nominee.
[ Parent ]
From what I know...
KS moderates are moderate strictly because of social issues and not because of economic issues. So I doubt being a teabagger will mean much. KS just seems to be a very fiscally conservative state. Theres probably a reason why the KS GOP still has many moderates: because even they are pretty fiscally conservative probably. Now if a GOP nominee were to be a Religious Right whackjob...whole different ballgame.
[ Parent ]
No many of them are economic moderates too
Kansas for a good while was the reverse of the South in the 1960s and 1970s, that is the GOP was main the only game in town, and there were two wings of the GOP, the conservative wing and the more progressive wing.  

In addition, being a fiscal conservative and being a teabagger are two different things.  When most moderate Repubs think fiscal conservative, they think deficit hawk and cutting back on unnecessary spending, not angry thugs crowding the street saying no to everything.  

More than anything else, I think the Kansas moderate Republicans like civil establishment Republicans. Present yourself as one and you're guaranteed to win, be a teabagger or angry rabble rouser and you probably will lose.

[ Parent ]
Plus side here
This is more likely than not going to instigate a feeding frenzy among Republicans. As alluded to above, the intra-party warfare has been going on for ages in Kansas, and this is surely going to give the Club for Growth yet another cause celebre. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the teabaggers decided Jordan were too moderate and put up someone even further off the reservation - which could allow a credible Democrat to win in a narrow Obama district.

That being said, this is clearly going to be a really tough hold in the present environment.

Obama did narrowly carry this district last year
so if a republican wins it, they may have a competitive race in 2012.
I dunno about 2012
I imagine if repubs win this seat they will be able to make it at least a bit more republican during redistricting.
[ Parent ]
They may do that anyway
I imagine that Wyandotte County will be split off into another district.
[ Parent ]
Would there be enough population
for a solely Wyandotte county CD?  The 1st will almost certainly grow as it always does, but what about the rest?  Will the second or fourth expand enough to take in Johnson and/or Douglas?  Or are you seeing a 5 seat map, 'cause that's something I've never heard.
[ Parent ]
Not even close
Based on July 2008 estimates, Wyandotte County has 154K people, a tiny fraction of the 700K needed for a Kansas CD.
[ Parent ]
No, not at all
I'm sorry I wasn't clearer.  What I meant was that I imagine the 3rd district being stripped of some of it's highly Democratic areas, such as Wyandotte County and them being moved into other districts.  Wayndotte County has about 150,000 people, not even close to enough to be its own CD.
[ Parent ]
This was my predicted Republican gerrymander of Kansas

KS-01 is 59-39 McCain, while the other three districts are about 56-42 McCain. In a particularly bad GOP year, they could theoretically lose the non-KS-01 districts, but I would imagine they'd take that risk in order to secure all the seats for the Republicans otherwise.

[ Parent ]
I think I must have seen that and thus the idea

[ Parent ]
This map wouldn't pass muster
Putting the most urban county in the state (Wyandotte) into the rural 1st would almost certainly draw challenges from both a communities of interest standard and VRA (diluting the voting power of the state's only non-white county).

I know we discussed this before, but I maintain the most likely scenario is that Republicans remove the rest of Douglas, not all of Wyandotte, from the 3rd. They might try to split Wyandotte, although again that would make it vulnerable to a VRA challenge. Either way pushes the 3rd to the right.

Alternately, you could put Wyandotte and Douglas into the 2nd, but you'd have to remove Topeka (into the 1st) or a Dem could beat Lynn Jenkins.

[ Parent ]
Didn't republicans control KS redistricting in 2002?
I don't recall the 3rd district being targetted seriously in 2002.  But who knows, they may try in 2012 still.
[ Parent ]
Wyandotte is still majority-white
Communities of interest aren't legally protected under VRA (there are plenty of other state maps that carve up communities of interest), so unless Kansas has a law requiring them to be preserved, I don't see how that would be a valid basis for a challenge of the map.
[ Parent ]
Yes it is
According to the Census, it's already majority-minority....

http://www.gctelegram.com/news...

And yes, last time around, communities of interest was part of the law setting up the redistricting process...although it's not clear if that's permanent or only affected redistricting 2002.

[ Parent ]
The fact that the Republicans..
...are likely going to clean up at the top of the ticket (Brownback, Moran) does not bode well for this cycle. This is the type of suburban/college town district we really want to keep too.
I think you're right
We could have held this in '06 or last year, but at the moment it looks like Kansas Dems are going to get crushed statewide in '10. Not good. I agree with most folks here so far though, in that we might have a shot in '12.  
[ Parent ]
Kansas has gone from a possilble Senate pickup
to a possible wipeout.

Democrats suck at take advantage of advantage.

Still, a good Dem can beat a wingnut here.  A Kansas City mayor certainly sounds promising.

[ Parent ]
Ah Well
Terrible news to most of us, but I bet TheUnknown and JSmith are jumping with joy.  
Moore is a pretty good Democrat
I don't really see what many could see wrong with him considering the district. I think we can win this one again though, this is a part of Kansas trending our way and if the GOP does win it in 2010 we should knock them out in 2012 with Obama coattails.

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog
[ Parent ]
I was thinking the same...
funny, but I bet they are actually Moore fans.  Plus its not like the netroots put forth a lot of effort helping him , he seeme dto have been elected before it became big and held his own each election
[ Parent ]
Bite me.
Dennis Moore has an 82% Progressive Punch rating and has been pretty good on most things.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
The bad thing about this seat is that even if we hold it we will probably be stuck with a Dem much more conservative than Moore.
[ Parent ]
Slightly more conservative maybe
Barack Obama won the district.  Let's not forget that.  Moore really wasn't that bad, and his Dem replacement won't be either.  (I predict that a Democrat can hold this seat.)

[ Parent ]
So
Are you willing to go on record as saying "not all Blue Dogs are bad"?

While we're at it, do you realize Moore served as Policy Co-Chair for the Blue Dogs?

[ Parent ]
JSmith is consistent - he has problems with maybe 1/2 of the blue dogs
while I disagree with him often, we, along with most here, are Ds. Just remember, this is for the most part, intramural.
[ Parent ]
Isn't "calling out" other users
discouraged or perhaps even prohibited?  Unnecessary.
[ Parent ]
RuralDem has a personal issue with the two of us
I don't pay him any attention, except to debunk his usual inaccuracies.
[ Parent ]
Hell no
Dennis Moore is just fine with me.  If Parker Griffith announced his retirement, I would be jumping with joy.
[ Parent ]
Party switchers
There are a few Dems (like Griffith and Bright) who would switch parties in a second if repubs came close to taking the house in 2010.  Especially if they survived with 50-51% of the vote.  Griffith makes former Rep. Cramer look like a liberal by comparison.
[ Parent ]
Actually Cramer really was a liberal
He voted like it in his first two terms, nearly got beat in 1994, and veered to the left.  

I actually don't expect Griffith or Bright to survive 2010.

[ Parent ]
Guess you mean veered right after 1994
But point taken.  Though even post-1994 he was on the left end of the white southern congressman political spectrum.  A much better congressman than you'd otherwise expect to have from such a district.
[ Parent ]
Bad news, but no indication of a "trend"
A lot of the retirements in '94 related to redistricting.  Plus, this is the only real retirement so far.  
1994
Republicans won 21 open Dem seats in 1994.  As of right now repubs have at most 4 real opportunities to pickup open Dem seats.  It's going to take a lot more open seats than that for them to have a realistic shot at even coming close to taking a majority in the house in 2010.
[ Parent ]
the Dem candidate almost has to be from Johnson County
Wyandotte and the part of Douglas will vote Dem for any competent non-offensive candidate. WyCo/Douglas gave Moore a 40K lead (out of like 78K votes cast) and Johnson gave Moore a 17K lead out of 269795 votes cast.

So the big leads in WyCo/Douglas won't matter if the candidate fails in Johnson County.

Wonder if any moderate Republicans wanna go to a party that will appreciate them. Just hoping for Kay O'Connor to win the Republican Primary isn't enough

And the Hits Keep on Coming
1) Moore Retiring

2) Tancredo's not running for CO-GOV (Maybe Ritter gives up on re-election and Hickenlooper runs, cause Ritter looks DOA to me)

3) Tom Schieffer is dropping his bid for TX-GOV. (Only one with a potential upside, Bill White for Governor)

AND THERE WE GO!!!!!
BILL WHITE IS NOW A CANDIDATE FOR TEXAS GOVERNOR!!!!!  YEE HAW!!!!

I'm glad my White bumper sticker says "White for Texas!"

[ Parent ]
White for Gov is for sure? - eom

[ Parent ]
you should diary this
or else share your link
[ Parent ]
Link
[ Parent ]
ITts going viral
[ Parent ]
if white wins the gov races
how much does this help us when it comes time for redistricting?  i don't know very much about how the tx process works.
[ Parent ]
TX is gaining 4 seats
so we'll probably get three new Hispanic majority districts out of those, make TX-17 way more friendly for Edwards, hopefully make two D based Austin seats if that's possible, change up the Houston and Dallas areas, hopefully to make a swing seat in each area, etc.
[ Parent ]
Independent redistricting
I'll bet if White gets elected TX repubs will really start pushign for independent redistricting.  I believe several high ranking TX legislators have already pushed for such a thing for a good while now.
[ Parent ]
thanks for links

[ Parent ]
Holy Shit!
That matters much more than Moore.  Texas Monthly has a fantastic profile on White, incidentally.

http://www.texasmonthly.com/20...

[ Parent ]
nifty
the Obama yard sign we still have around doesn't mention a year (or a running mate, sorry Joe), so it'll still be good for 2012. Yay recycling.

Not to suggest that bumper stickers are that unintentionally useful or anything.

At least Bill White won't go to a runoff.

[ Parent ]
Although before we all start making a ton of TX comments
lets just wait for the thread that will be about TX.  Im sure with big news like this, it'll have a front page story on it within a few hours.
[ Parent ]
I agree
I'm sure someone from swingstate project will make a thread on this and we can talk about all we want.

On Moore retiring I don't think we should all get too worked up about this. KS-03 isn't a heavily Repubilcan district: indeed Obama won the district (albeit narrowly) so assuming that Democrats get a state senator or some other strong candidate they have at least a 50/50 shot of keeping the seat. Also the Kansas conservative/moderate divide could very well play out, and the GOP primary could be fierce considering that it will be much easier for any Republican to win in a open seat. Don't know how that will play out however as I don't live in or near Kansas.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Certainly more promising than LA-03. Though still a tough hold in the likely environment.
[ Parent ]
Im thinking we'll hold the seat
because of the huge conservative moderate divide in the KS GOP, which only be maximized by a million now that this divide has taken hold nationwide.

That primary will be downright nasty, and this is ground zero for where the divide began, Johnson County.  Hell, I'll even go as far as to predict the primary will be a downright shit show.

[ Parent ]
It's been holding steady
as a close to 50/50 seat...51/48ish outcomes.  And it's Kansas, where the Right stays under constant emotional steam.  

My guess is that the root of that is similar to that of Oklahoma and northern Texas...it's local young people raised on farms and in small towns turning conservative or reactionary as they move to the larger towns and cities for jobs.  And it happens in large enough numbers/concentration in places like eastern Kansas to form those exurban and suburban conservative bubbles.  They have a constitution which makes public education a right, which leads to constant attacks on the public school system and lawsuits to achieve funding.  Olathe is the homeschooling capital of the country.

I can see how Moore might think that 6 campaigns without the district giving him safety might be enough.  Boyda losing a year ago probably didn't help, either.

[ Parent ]
"Turning" conservative or reactionary?
My gut instinct was always that those people started out being conservative or reactionary and just brought their politics with them to the metro areas.
[ Parent ]
Liberals moving out
I was born and raised in Johnson County and like a lot of my well-educated peers, left for a job elsewhere (CA for me). Most of the native JoCo folks I know who went away are liberal-leaning, while the conservatives tended to stay.

I agree that small-town Kansans do move to the city, but I'd guess that liberal brain drain is a bigger factor than conservatives moving in. Besides, the ones who leave their small town are usually among the best educated and open-minded from their areas.

[ Parent ]
Gore got 36 and Kerry got 38
in Johnson County.  Obama got 45%, so I have a hard time that the county is becoming more conservative.  

This is exactly the kind of suburban county that is moving drastically to the Dems, Sebelius won just 46% in 2002, and won 62% in 2006.  Statewide she went from 53% to 58%.

I predict Obama wins Johnson County against Palin in 2012.

[ Parent ]
My friend from Johnson County
says that Moore was generally well-liked over there. He was moderate on some issues and never really drew attention to himself. Apparently he was best known for playing the guitar in his commercials. An Alan Grayson-like liberal could probably never hope to win this district.

That said, I think Johnson County is fairly diverse by Kansas standards. I remember my friend telling me once that quite a few immigrants have moved there to work at Sprint's headquarters.

[ Parent ]
Oh yes, that's not what I meant
I agree that Johnson County is steadily getting more liberal/moderate. It would just be a lot more so if the left-leaning folks who grew up there stayed instead of just the conservatives.

And if Palin is the nominee in 2012, she could actually lose Kansas, and would almost certainly lose JoCo in a landslide.

[ Parent ]
I just heard Chris Van Hollen said they had an "early warning system"...
The DCCC chair said they had an "early warning system" in order to minimize retirements in the House Democratic Caucus. It sucks that Moore is retiring, but this seat is no longer as solidly GOP as it once was and we seem to have a decent bench of Dem officeholders in the district who might be interested in heading to Congress. This won't be easy to hold, but I'd say it's a safer bet to say the Dems hold this seat than Charlie Melancon's.

Which other Democratic reps are considered possible retirements at this point?

Wish Moore retired in 2008 instead of 2010
Would have been an easier hold and given the incumbent Dem another 2 years incumbency before redistricting.
[ Parent ]
Haven't heard of any
And agree regarding LA-3.  That's a goner.
[ Parent ]
Don't write it off yet.
That area has a strong Dem tradition.  A Dem just won a special election for State Senate in one of the reddest parts of the district.  Depends on how the candidates shake out.  Not a goner though.
[ Parent ]
It's a long goner
If the Dems hold on to LA-3, and the GOP nominee was scandal-free, the Dems likely picked up seats in 2010.
[ Parent ]
Agree completely
I wouldn't say pickup seats but if Dems hold LA-03 it likely means no more than 10 net losses in the house.  
[ Parent ]
Surprised that you see it that way.
Melancon was elected there for the first time only five years ago.  Plenty of Dem state senators and state reps in the area.  Field still has not materialized.  No basis to say it's a goner yet.  Uphill based on PVI alone, but it is not a no-brainer.

The only seats I see as no-brainers are DE-AL and LA-02, LA-02 based on PVI and DE-AL only because Dems have fielded one of their strongest possible candidates, who has a big head start in fundraising.

[ Parent ]
another Steineger flaw
involves him speaking at Tea Parties in April

Here are the Democratic legislators by county

Wyandotte
St. Sen. David Haley (already lost for Sec of State, twice)
St. Sen. Kelly Kultala (first term, fresh off primarying a Phill Kline Dem)
St. Sen. Chris Steineger (tea partier)
St. Rep. Tom Burroughs
St. Rep. Stan Frownfelter
St. Rep. Broderick Henderson
St. Rep. Margaret Long
St. Rep. Louis Ruiz
St. Rep. Valdenia Winn

Johnson
St. Rep. Lisa L. Benlon (first term, replaced Sue Storm, who is now on the KS Board of Education)
St. Rep. Cindy Neighbor (former Republican, won her seat back in 2006)
St. Rep. Gene Rardin (70 on 1/3/11, won two very close elections)

As for the replacement process if a State Senator wins (no State Senator is up for re-election in 2010), the party committee picks the next Senator. State Reps are up in 2010, as you'd expect.

I'd hope the succession is the same for the State Board of Education, because Sue Storm might be the most viable Johnson County candidate.

If Wikipedia is to believed,
Steineger was punched by a constituent and given a black eye while having a debate over health care reform.  Not sure how that plays in the Kansas City suburbs.
[ Parent ]
Link
[ Parent ]
They've got their hands full
just hanging on to their offices next November.  And after that election Kansas will have Republican trifecta government.  

Kansas is going to get hardline Republican governance and get it good and hard.  The good news: that ought to revive Kansas Democrats in '12 and '14.  

[ Parent ]
Sue Storm for Congress!
Maybe she and Reed Richards could mortgage the Baxter Building to finance the campaign.
[ Parent ]
Ha!
I never even thought about her name like that before, but hey, whatever works. Maybe she could get a bunch of comic book geeks to send her campaign money. Stranger things have happened.
[ Parent ]
Possible candidates
In JoCo, there's also...

Rep. Dolores Furtado (experienced, former JoCo commissioner, but quite old)
Rep. Malick Talia (first-termer)
Rep. Mike Slattery (first-termer, very young, but has a high-profile name)

Lisa Benlon isn't a first-termer, exactly. She served a few terms as a Republican, left the legislature for awhile, and then switched parties and won a seat. It's a profile that could work pretty well for the 3rd district.

I agree that Sue Storm would be pretty first-tier. But I think we need all the pro-evolution votes we can get on the school board. That said, if Dems get to pick a replacement, she might be the best option available.

[ Parent ]
sue storm
Sue Storm is old.  Her running in the 3rd is a pipe dream.  Joco dems had to beg for months to get her to run on the state board.

We can't stop here; this is bat country. -HST
[ Parent ]
Well, it is the most Democratic district in KS
I'm sure we'll get some state legislator to run and it should be a close race either way.
Most democratic seat in Kansas
That's like republicans trying to tout NY-26 or NY-29 as their best seat in New York.
[ Parent ]
It is comparable to NY-29
I think we have a better than even chance to win this seat.
[ Parent ]
We should get a good candidate
because it looks like it will be the only place for a Dem to have a reasonable place in politics in Kansas.

Too bad, the state was trending our way, but Boyda, Sebelius and now Moore have taken the top three names off the marquee, for one reason or another.  Back to square one.

[ Parent ]
Kansas was trending our way?
I must have missed that memo.  From all I've read about Kansas it seemed the state was not trending our way but rather dems were having somewhat increased success in large part because of the moderate/conservative rift within the KS GOP.
[ Parent ]
That seems to be the only way to win in Kansas
Moore, Boyda, and (I believe) Sebelius all won initially by beating ultraconservative Republicans with the help of moderate crossover support.
[ Parent ]
Yup
And when the GOP came to their senses and nominated someone who appeared less extreme in Jenkins they beat Boyda rather easily.  Though that loss was also due in part to some poor judgement on Boyda's part.
[ Parent ]
Clearly trending our way
Sebelius was very popular, Moore safe, and Boyda lost by a combo of a poor campaign and a strong opponent; Obama lost by 14% points while Kerry lost by 25%.

It was one of the most clearly trending blue states.  
It was similar to Texas and Nebraska, NOT Oklahoma and Arkansas.

[ Parent ]
hm
Tom Wiggans, who just got into the gubernatorial race, could also possibly shift gears and jump over to the 3rd.

could the KS Gubernatorial race get any worse for the Dems?

Paging Governor Parkinson...
Run for re-election dammit.  His approval rating is consistently around 60% and equally as high with republicans.  He could give Brownback a real race if he ran.
[ Parent ]
You and every Democrat in Kansas
...wish Parkinson would run (and a good contingent of moderate Republicans, too). Of course, part of the reason he's so popular is that Republicans aren't bothering to attack him since he's not running for re-election. But every time he's asked, he's been pretty emphatic about his "no" answer. If he did run, though, he could win with Sebelius-like margins.
[ Parent ]
Didn't Sebelius pick him to be a successor?
I thought that was part of the reason he ran for Lt. Gov last election.  He's a former moderate republican.  He would be the perfect candidate to run against Brownback.
[ Parent ]
Wiggans won't get in
[ Parent ]
Hey, how about...
Sean Tevis?  I know he lost his state house race, but he's in Olathe, part of KS-03, and look at how close he was.  He lost 52%-48%, while Democrats to the north, south, and east of him couldn't even get 25% of the vote.  Tevis came from nowhere to give a real scare to an entrenched incumbent in a deep red district.  It looks like he's running for the state house again in 2010; would he switch over to the U.S. House race if need be?

No idea if he'd be a good fit for the entire district, I'm just going off of how well he did in a deeply conservative place like Olathe.

KS-03: Moore Won't Run Again | 93 comments

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