Rep. George Radanovich (R-Calif.) will be announcing this afternoon today that he won't be seeking re-election, according to a senior GOP source.
His chief of staff, Ted Maness, told POLITICO the congressman would be releasing a statement at 2:00 EST, but declined to confirm that he'll be retiring. [...]
Republicans comprise 44 percent of registered voters, while Democrats make up 37 percent, and 14 percent decline to affiliate themselves with a party.
Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson, a political ally of Radanovich, is expected to run for the Republican nomination in the district.
This is the first Republican retirement of the 2010 cycle -- which is kind of amazing after the mass exodus of Republicans from Congress to the retirement manors of Florida over the past two cycles. I suppose we took care of most of the low-hanging fruit.
Radanovich's seat isn't prime territory for a pick-up. However, although its PVI is R+9, Barack Obama dramatically improved upon the old Democratic baseline in the district, losing the CD by only 52-46 to John McCain. Compare that to John Kerry's flattening here by a 61-38 margin four years earlier. A good deal of that shift can be attributed to the demographic changes occurring within the district, which has seen a marked increase in its minority population since 2000. Those demographic gains haven't reached the tipping point here yet, but this district could be susceptible to a bit of nipping and tucking in the next round of redistricting in order to hasten that process.
UPDATE: Check out who Reid Wilson flags as a potential GOP contender here:
One source said Radanovich will back state Sen. Jeff Denham (R) as his replacement. CA Senate districts are actually larger than congressional districts, though Denham's is more closely related to Rep. Dennis Cardoza's (D) neighboring 18th district. Top GOPers had tried to convince Denham to run against Cardoza, though Radanovich's district has a stronger GOP lean.
But Denham is unlikely to get a clean shot at the seat. Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson (R) is also likely to run, and one source suggested to ex-Rep. Richard Pombo (R), who lost his neighboring 11th district to Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) in '06, may be a potential contender as well.
Needless to say, a comebacker for "Dirty Dick" Pombo would be very fun to watch.
