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AR-Sen, AR-03: Roll Call Says Boozman Will Challenge Lincoln in Arkansas

by: Ben

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 6:06 PM EST


From Roll Call:

Barring a last-minute change of heart, Rep. John Boozman (R) appears set to jump into Arkansas' Senate race in the coming days.

Sources on Capitol Hill said Wednesday that Boozman, the lone GOP Member of the state's Congressional delegation, has made it clear that he intends to challenge Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) in November. Boozman already has much of his Senate campaign team in place, and the announcement is expected to take place in Arkansas before the weekend is out.

When asked about a potential Senate bid Wednesday, a spokeswoman for Boozman would only say "nothing has been announced officially."
Ben :: AR-Sen, AR-03: Roll Call Says Boozman Will Challenge Lincoln in Arkansas
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AR-Sen, AR-03: Roll Call Says Boozman Will Challenge Lincoln in Arkansas | 70 comments
I just
changed my rating to leans republican. I think it is safe to say that if Lincoln is the nominee it will be likely republican.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
I'd
say even if Lincoln is not the nominee that we still lose this seat(except if Beebe gets in the race), especially with Boozman in the race. We should focus on the 3, 2 open, and 1 w/ a incumbent House races that has/had Democrats representing them. THere we have the best shot at winning, not the Senate race.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
The leans republican
is if we get someone besides Lincoln. You are without a doubt right, the only way we keep this seat is if Beebe or Clark go for it, and that seems unlikely. We should write it off like we did with North Dakota.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Sorry
misread, but I doubt even Clark could win against Boozman  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
It would be a tossup
Clark could raise the dough easy enough, and he is a good fit for Arkansas, with his background in the military and all. Plus he would get the liberal base (however small it is) out. Also he could ride Beebe coattails.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Have you seen how old Clark is looking?
I don't think he's going to run for anything.  I really don't.

Bill Halter though is looking more and more likely.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
Halter is too liberal
in my view. I know, I know he is a populist and everyone in Arkansas loves a populist, you have given me the lecture before. However I really think Halter would have to be a born again moderate if he would make the race competitive. He would have to change views on gay rights, gun rights, abortion rights, and many other things, and I think he has too much class to do that. Keep Halter for a more dem safe year. I know Clark is liberal as well, but I think he would have an easier time hiding it; however I agree he will probably not run.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I
doubt social issues will become an issue come 2010. Just look at NJ/VA/MA, The Dems attacked the gopers for being socially conservative and it caused almost no damage to the gopers. I think Republicans have finally learned their lesson about running in races and that is stick to the economy and that they can't win by running on social issues. This lesson however is yet to be learned by the social right and some teabaggers  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
True
Even in Arkansas that is probably true. I think that Halter being pro-HCR could hurt him. Also I live in a very red area and a lot of people just vote for gun rights, even in this economy.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Hoosierdem...
please tell me what Halter's views on those issues are.  I already know them, I just want to hear what you think they are.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
Well
He supports HCR, he has a lot of labor backing, and he is pro choice and pro marriage equality. I agree with him on all of his positions and I think he would make a great Senator; I just have my doubts that he could beat Boozman. I also think he could run later and win, however this is not a great time to be a democrat. He would do better than Lincoln but I just think we should write this off and look for some more winnable races.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
No, no...
You said, and I quote, "He would have to change views on gay rights, gun rights, abortion rights, and many other things, and I think he has too much class to do that."

Halter has never supported marriage equality.  What he has supported is the right for gays (and for single people as the bill he opposed discriminated against them as well) to adopt and be foster parents-and considering the mess that Child Services is in here it's not as bad a position to hold as you might think.

He is prochoice, but so is Lincoln.

He is FOR gun rights.

And yes, he did push health care reform by bringing a state clinic to Arkansas that thousands flocked to.  Yes he has labor support from his work to bring a popular state lottery to Arkansas that has opened the doors to college education to countless kids here.  Being an Arkansas progressive populist has lead to his poll numbers soaring, while Lincoln's move to the right has correlated with hers crashing.  And it's not rocket science-poor, working, and middle-class people want someone who's looking out for their economic interests, something they're not seeing coming from either party these days.  The base (and I'm not talking about bloggers, I'm talking about blacks, single women, union members, young people, etc.) aren't turning out because they're really not seeing any reason to.  A candidate like Halter is the antidote to that, while the Blanche Lincoln formula of "conservatism" which is really code for doing what big businesses want and the rest of us can't afford is going to doom the Democratic party as it has time and time again.

You're saying that we should basically count our losses and give up.  That's the best way to lose an election.  We may well be able to change this in the course of a year, a long time in politics mind you.  Or we may not.  But we're not going to know unless we try.  The only way to do it is through hard work and back bone.  And I'll tell you, I, for one, am not going to let those worthless teabaggers take my state without the bloodiest fight they've ever seen.

But you know what's the most depressing about this election cycle?  I see plenty of opportunities.  I see people willing to work on the ground and people willing to vote for Democrats.  But the folks here at swingstate just seem like most of them have given up.  Boy I'll tell you, it's a good thing you guys ain't grief counselors-half of you could drive a depressed person to suicide.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
People aren't giving up
They are just realistic to the situation. And it is very depressing.
[ Parent ]
You and I have two different definitions of being realistic.
The realistic view is that we have almost a full year to turn this around.  The realistic view is that nothing in politics is ever stagnent for that amount of time.  And the realistic view is that it's better to figure out how to climb out of the hole your in instead of trying to measure the amount of dirt you'll be buried under.

You want to talk realistic, let's sit down and figure out what kind of work we can realistically do to make things better.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
Semantics
The Republicans are going to pick up seats whatever. It is a midterm election and this always happens. That being said the national Democratic party knows what it needs to do to mitigate the losses. The president went a long way towards starting that tonight.
[ Parent ]
Did God tell you that out of a burning bush?
If not, I'm not buying the Mrs. Cleo routine.  The future depends on what we do, not on some magical forces, and that included so called historical patterns.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
If Clark is considering a house seat ...
why wouldn't he consider a senate seat, if Lincoln retires or even if she doesn't?  He will be the same age either way.  He is rather old, 66, for a freshman senator, but having been in the military so long, he is probably quite healthy and up to the rigors of the job.    
[ Parent ]
I'll take my chances.
I'd rather go down fighting on my feet with someone "too liberal" than cowering on my knees with a "moderate."  We have the so-called moderate right now.  She's getting annihilated.

Halter does have the benefit of having been elected statewide already, having campaigned statewide already, having a revved up base.  Clark has never held elected office and has run only once in his life for anything and did not do too well.  I'm more wary of Clark.  Plus, I would hope his campaign involves more than reiterating his resume.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
And i - will not
Because i intensely dislike "going down", but immensely like to win. If a district requires Bobby Bright to win and no one more progressive can win it - i will wholehartedly support Bobby Bright putting all so called "principles" ... well "far away" (though i had much less politically correct expression initially)...
[ Parent ]
With Boozman in, I'd label this Solid-to-Likely GOP
Of course, if Mike Beebe were to somehow get in, it'd be Solid-to-Likely Dem.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Why is Beebee so popular anyway?
What's he done that's so great?
[ Parent ]
He has a 82 percent approval
with only 9 not approving his job performance.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Beebe has done everything he said he would do
that hasn't been pushed to the back burner by the economy and budget cuts.  He's been a good, competent governor, and I will point out that he has a slight populist streak that Lincoln, Pryor, etc. don't have.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
Well be that
Now the DSCC doesnt have to use its funds on DE, CT, and AR.
or ND


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
ugh, and ND
And they might as well cut Reid lose come mid-September or October as if his bazillions cant win it for him, DSCC funds certainly wont do it.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I see no use funding Reid when you have better states to defend and states like Mo, NH, Oh, Ky, and maybe Nc up for grabs. What a freaking waste!  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I'm
worried that the DSCC will actually spend alot of money here since Lincoln is an incumbent and the DSCC almost always protects their own. I also think that we should spend some $ in DE if Cooper gets in to see if we can get the race to be closer and turn it into a winnable race. The DSCC will probably not spend a penny in ND though  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
Not prepared to write off anybody in blue states
But I imagine the firewall will likely become CO, PA, IL.
[ Parent ]
It was clear it would happen. Game Over Blanche

First things first,
drop the Beebe talk-ain't happening and ain't worth sobbing over.

Second, don't assume that Boozman is a sure thing-the man is slow as a mole and not well known outside his district.  Oh and FYI, it was his brother that Blanche beat in her first election to the Senate.

That said, Lincoln needs to go for a variety of reasons.  We could win this with about any other Democrat in the state, but her poll numbers keep dipping, and funny enough they seem to correspond with her moving right.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

Did
a Boozman run in the eighties as well? Oh and I seriously doubt Halter is happening either, I think he will either run for Congress or run for re-election then try and move up in a more dem friendly year.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Ok. off topic
WOW, stunner

Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita weighing Challenge to Bayh

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

I predicted that
yesterday after Pence declined to run. Yes! it feels really good to be right. However in all reality that sucks really bad, because he is a top tier candidate who could win.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
do you think Rokita could win?
Cornyn seems to try EVERYTHING to find a credible Challenger to Bayh.
[ Parent ]
If he survied a primary
then yeah. He is a moderate; I believe he once called himself a maverick like McCain. So he could get a lot of unhappy dems if they think he is not too far right. However Bayh is still pretty popular and it would be an uphill race for Rokita.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
To retake
the senate Republicans would need to hold all of their seats and capture 10 seats: Arkansas (Lincoln), Bennett (Colorado), Boxer (California), Reid (Nevada), Illinois (open), Delaware (open), New York (Gillibrand), Indiana (Bayh), Pennsylvania (Specter), North Dakota (open). Plus they would need to capture Connecticut (open) to put them on a good footing for 2012.

And let's put these ten seats into categories:

Likely/lean GOP: Arkansas (Lincoln), Nevada (Reid), North Dakota (open), Delaware (open)
Toss-up: Bennett (Colorado), Illinois (open), Pennsylvania (Specter)
Likely/lean Dem: California (Boxer), New York (Gillibrand), Connecticut (open)
Safe Dem: Indiana (Bayh)


19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
why safe dem for Bayh?
He was only leading Hostettler by 3. I know Hostettler has his weaknesses as a candidate but I'd say likely/lean.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Put Bayh in with Gillibrand and Boxer.
[ Parent ]
I agree
I personally have it as likely democratic, however if we start seeing more polls like that I will probably move it to lean. I know Obama won Indiana, but that does not mean that we are a liberal state at all. People are mad as hell right now, and Indiana has many dedicated conservatives who will turn up in droves to vote for the tea bagging agenda. The plus is that I have not heard a lot of negative things about Bayh, except among liberals. Also he has a war chest of 10 million and can raise more in a heart beat. However as Reid has been proving money can't always buy votes.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
His approval rating is far more
Important than the lean of the state. I'm with you - unless I see more evidence he should be favored.
[ Parent ]
You are absolutely right
However just to be fair Bryon Dorgan's approvals where higher than Bayhs right now, so that is not always the case.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Sure
And Lincoln Chafee too. There are always exceptions. But I'd much rather be running for re-election with Bayh's approvals than Lincoln's and Reid's.
[ Parent ]
ugh, please dont post that ever again.....
That there was a slap in the face by reality.  Im only 23 and following up and down ballot races religiously only since 2006 makes 2010 such a downer.  :(  I got my dose with Bush winning again in 2004 and it being my first election I was eligible to vote for, but now that I see a spanking up and down ballot instead of just at the top, Im going to learn a hard lesson this go around.

As long as MN-Gov goes blue I'll call it a victory.

[ Parent ]
Senate ratings
Bayh has like $13 million and has basically become GOPlite (his father was a progressive).  So he would be tough to knock off.  Boxer would be a waste of resources for the NRSC too...although they'd let Fiorina self-fund.  Wisconsin could be in play if a top candiadate runs against Feingold.  The GOP will probably fall 3-4 seats short of the majority but they have tons of targets in 2012 and 2014 so it will likely be a tough few election cycles for the Democrats
[ Parent ]
Said it before
The picture for 2012 depends entirely on Obama - if he is being re-elected it will be fine. But if he is losing then the GOP could get close to 60 themselves.
[ Parent ]
What makes me so pissed about this cycle
is this is the last one we can really tap out in Senate seats.  We've got all just about all defense in 2012 and 2014 that 2010 was our last shot at really racking up some gains.  And the retirements even all fell in place and then bam, shit storm on the Democratic Party.

If Obama is going down in 2012, there goes at least VA, MT and MO with it.

[ Parent ]
Jim Webb
should be able to keep him own even if Obama does not win, and honestly I still think that is a BIG if.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Ditto
This cycle should have been a firewall against 2012 and 2014...Obama appointing Napalitano, Sebelius, Clinton, Salazar (along with IL and DE) open seats didn't help and now the political environment is unfavorable toward what otherwise would be easier pickups in NH, KY, FL, MO and OH.  Why pick a placeholder for DE if Beau Biden wasn't a sure go btw?  
[ Parent ]
Because he was a sure thing back then
But there are no sure things in politics. Especially when the political environment turns sour for your party.
[ Parent ]
Its nice to follow a cycle this religiously
and see it all shift like this.  So far, the cycles Ive followed to a religious degree (06 and 08) have all built on the same theme.  This election cycle has seen special elections result in the shaking out of other races in a much more definite level.  This cycle has so far has really made clear that a week in the real world is a life time in the political world, as a week in the real world can permanently affect politics for a lifetime.  Lets see how many things we couldve gotten accomplished if we'd just had that one more extra seat, DE-Sen, that was all due to losing MA-Sen and our candidate chickening out.

Ugh, the more I read the news about HCR, the more it appears that one single person, Martha Coakley, altered the course of history forever.  And the repercussions of Coakley not only affecting HCR, but several other down ballot races, like AR-Sen and DE-Sen.  And what makes it all worse, Coakley lost for a myriad of other reasons instead of voters are against the Democrats.  The polling still shows the Republicans being even more unfavorable than us, we are just the huge majority and we really are the only ones to take out frustration on.  The GOP have had no part in a single thing, except bitching.

I clearly need to start a bookmarking system for old articles I read, because there was one by some journalist of some very accredited organization, who interviewed some GOP strategist (um, yeah, sorry, I probably read it on CNN.com or MSNBC.com and they link to Time and Newsweek....  weak I know) who said, ha, Obama won and now lets see him fix this without pissing everyone off.  Better the Democrats be in power during the real hot mess of it all instead of the GOP.  The timing was all off and Obama took on the blame very early on.

This is clearly a 4 year thing, and unfortunately, the two year plan is actually quite ugly and is the last cycle of Senate seats where we can really do damage.  I remember the days of thinking we may get a veto-proof majority....

[ Parent ]
All very true
But Obama just gave himself and his party a hell of a leg up.
[ Parent ]
Depends
Even presidents that win in landslides very seldom bring along a lot of senate races...Reagan in 1984 for example.  Most of the Dems running in 2008 would have won without Obama winning with maybe the exception of Franken.  Obama didn't win MT, MO, WV, NE, ND...and DEMS have more than a 2 to 1 disadvantage in the number of seats up.  Obama does probably help Stabenow, Cantwell and a few others but they would be favored anyway.  An open WV could be tough to hold, McCaskill will certainly have a race, Conrad may also if he even runs again, Webb along with Tester and Brown-OH also will have races.  The two Nelsons, Bill and Ben may retire and will have tough races.  Only Brown-MA and maybe Ensign, if he runs, are pickup opportunities.
The GOP looks to be at 47 or so after 2010 and 52-53 after 2012.  If Obama wins, his sixth year could bring even more loses to the DEMS in 2014.  If he loses all bets are off.
[ Parent ]
It's way too early to make predictions for 2012
remember, at the beginning of 2009, the Democrats looked likely to expand their majorities and the media narrative was "Republicans without leader to guide them to recovery." Now only a year later, look where we are.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
It certainly makes it easier
Less ticket splitting. But we will cross that bridge when we come to it.
[ Parent ]
Cue Rasmussen
Rokita 55
Bayh 35

This is snark.

[ Parent ]
What I don't get
is why everyone puts so much trust in them.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Because they are accuarte at the death
Which gives him the credibility to do what he does this far out.
[ Parent ]
Hey good news
Gives us a great pickup opportunity in AR-3!!!

snark

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

Not a likely pickup
AR-3 has always been the most GOP friendly seat in AR.  It is unlikely to be a pickup opportunity unless in a very pro-DEM year.  I think this seat has been GOP since like 1966 and Bill Clinton couldn't even win it in 1974 a very DEM year.
Actually we have a candidate running a surprisingly feisty campaign there
Not likely to happen this year, but the demographics in the third are going to shift at some point because of the incredible growth of Latinos and other outsiders there.  We have a great candidate, David Whitaker, whose build an organization in all twelve counties in the district, something that hasn't been done since the 60s.  Even if our chances of winning it are slim this year, we're going to be laying the groundwork for the future this year.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
The 3rd CD reminds me of a lot of other places in the south
In particular, the Dallas-Fort Worth and Atlanta suburbs. Although they start off extremely Republican, a rush of minorities makes them swing left very quickly. It might be slower in northwest Arkansas, though, since there isn't a large minority-rich central city to tap into.  
[ Parent ]
Lets be frank, what is the future for AR
It, along with WV, are the two last very traditional conservative Democratic party that hasnt switched to the conservative Republican party.  How long will we really keep AR in congressional representation?  I read everything on this blog, so you pretty much point there still being a big base of economic populists in the truest form, instead of Southerners who seem to have turned no government intervention into overshadowing their economic populism.  I hope AR can manage to still Dems to Congress, even if they are pain in the ass Blue Dogs.  

I think the economic populism in states like AR just needs to be worked, and too many are caving and thinking that is the way.  Moderating does help in some areas, but like with HCR, I think Lincoln got her name tied too much to a bill that got annoying and unpopular is what did her in.  Not moderating, it was being tied to it so heavily.  Just shut up and do it behind closed doors, getting press for celebrating a compromise was just dumb.

[ Parent ]
And:
The 3rd District is home to Jim Bob Duggar and his mega-family of TLC fame. A lot of people don't know this but Duggar was a state representative from that area back in the late '90s. If he ran for the House seat to succeed Boozman what a freakshow that would be!
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I remember very active young man running in this district in banner Democratic year of 1974. But even he fell slightly short getting 48% of vote. His name - .....)))
[ Parent ]
I know he talked to much
Obama did the sixth longest SOTU tonight clocking in at 71 minutes. The longest four were all WJC.
[ Parent ]
And yet another entrant
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

AR Repubs looking to challenge their friends in MN perhaps? Actually, maybe this is Lincoln's one and only chance - a bloody primary on the other side. Though I suspect the field mostly clears for Boozman.

I'd hate to lose a seat...
and I hope she makes it close so that there isn't a general commotion for Dems in Arkansas but it will be some consolation to see Sen. Debbie Stabenow in charge of the Agriculture Committee in Lincoln's place.

If we can only get the odious Colin Peterson to retire, perhaps we could be on the road to agriculture reform...

Incidentally
Who is "ben"?
Has Lincoln even been campaigning?
What kind of ads has she been running?
AR-Sen, AR-03: Roll Call Says Boozman Will Challenge Lincoln in Arkansas | 70 comments

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