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SSP Daily Digest: 3/11 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Thu Mar 11, 2010 at 3:59 PM EST


• CO-Sen: Gee, tell us what you really think, Jane Norton! The supposed front-runner for the GOP nod just referred to Social Security as a "Ponzi scheme" while appearing at a teabagger forum. I'm sure the 600,000 or so Coloradans who receive Social Security will be glad to hear that.

• FL-Sen: PPP's Tom Jensen has some observations on the Florida race, that also seem generalizable to the national landscape and pretty much every other race. Very few people are changing their minds between the parties, he finds: only 8% of Obama voters plan to vote for Marco Rubio, actually lower than the 11% of McCain voters planning to vote for Kendrick Meek. The difference is in the intensity between the parties, which shapes the likely voter model. Barack Obama won Florida by 3, while PPP's sample went for McCain by 4; that 7-point shift is similar to what they found in New Jersey and Massachusetts as well.

• OH-Sen: We're very short on details, but Chris Cillizza is pointing to a DSCC poll (taken by Mark Mellman) finding Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leading GOP ex-Rep. Rob Portman 37-36 in the Senate race. (There's no mention of primary numbers or a Jennifer Brunner matchup.) We'll fill in the blanks more if we see a copy of the memo.

• MI-Gov: Michigan-based pollster Denno-Noor takes another look at the primaries in the Michigan governor's race. On the GOP side, Rep. Peter Hoekstra leads at 28% (up from 21 in November), followed by self-proclaimed nerd Rick Snyder at 18 (up from 5). This poll confirms the most recent EPIC-MRA poll's finding of Snyder's advertising-based surge, and the subsequent decline for AG Mike Cox. He's at 12 in this poll, down from 15. Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard is at 8, and state Sen. Tom George is at 2. On the Democratic side, they find a lot of uncertainty: state House speaker Andy Dillon leads Lansing mayor Virg Bernero 13-11, with 6% each for state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith and for Dan Kildee, who has since dropped out (although he was in the race while the poll was in the field). Undecided wins, at 56%. There are no trendlines on the Dem side, given the dropout of Lt. Gov. John Cherry since the last poll. (Speaking of Cherry, there are odd rumors out there that unions are asking the woeful Cherry to get back into the race, which doesn't jibe with the UAW's recent decision to back Bernero.)

• NY-Gov: This is what passes for a good news day for David Paterson: the growing likelihood that he won't face any criminal charges over allegations of witness tampering in the domestic violence investigation involving a top aide. On the GOP side, ex-Rep. Rick Lazio rolled out one more endorsement from the party's old war horses as party bosses keep looking elsewhere for a suitable candidate; today, it was Rep. Peter King's turn to give Lazio the thumbs-up.

• PA-Gov: More progress on the endorsements front in the fight for the Democratic nomination. Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato got the endorsement of the state's largest teachers union, the Pennsylvania State Education Association. Meanwhile, Auditor Jack Wagner continued to dominate in terms of endorsements from county-level party apparatuses, getting the endorsement in Schuylkill County, out in coal country.

• MI-13: This isn't a good day for Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick. She and one of her aides just got subpoenaed by a federal grand jury, in the investigation into her son, former Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. On top of that, state Sen. Hansen Clarke made official his primary challenge to Kilpatrick. She barely survived the Democratic primary in 2008, and that was largely because of a split among several challengers.

• NY-23: Doug Hoffman is making a move... to the 23rd District, where he plans to run again. One knock against Hoffman last year was that he lived in Lake Placid, which is outside the district. He's moving nine miles down the road to Saranac Lake, which falls in the 23rd's lines.

• PA-07: With filing day having passed in Pennsylvania, now it's time to count the signatures, and one candidates who's running into some trouble is a surprise: the squeaky-clean former US Attorney Pat Meehan, the Republican running in the 7th. He's asked the Delaware County DA to investigate his own signatures, after finding about some potentially fraudulent signatures on his lists. Meanwhile, Meehan seems to have dodged a long-rumored primary challenge from former TV news reporter Dawn Stensland, who never filed to run.

• CA-LG: San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom looks like he's going to go ahead and voluntarily demote himself to the no-man's land that is Lt. Governor. He paid his filing fee yesterday, and will have an official kickoff for his campaign either today or tomorrow.

• Demographics: Alan Abramowitz has a very interesting piece on demographic change and how it only bodes ill for Republicans (or at least the current angry-white-guy version of the Republicans) in the long run. That angry white base keeps shrinking as a percentage of the population, with non-whites on track to be 35% of the electorate by 2020.

• Branding: With his presidential run (and its ubiquitous star and blue background) fading in the rear-view mirror, John McCain has launched a completely new logo to go with his new persona. It has a flowing flag instead, on a background that's much... um... whiter.
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/11 (Afternoon Edition)
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SSP Daily Digest: 3/11 (Afternoon Edition) | 74 comments
MI-Gov
Snyder and Cox split moderates and Hoekstra wins. Yes?
I thought
Hoekstra was a moderate too, and the only conservative in the race was Bouchard.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
Nah
Hoekstra is uber-conservative. Hence the lead.
[ Parent ]
Depends
I wouldn't consider Cox a moderate.  

I don't think Snyder can maintain his improved poll numbers.  He's doing well because he's spending a lot of money and is the only candidate campaigning.  Once the other candidates start campaigning, I think Snyder will drop in the polls (unless he plans to spend a lot of money just to win the primary)  

[ Parent ]
Synder is the only moderate
Cox isn't moderate. He isn't as crazy as Hoekstra but he's not moderate.
[ Parent ]
Social Security & Jane Norton
"I'm sure the 600,000 or so Coloradans who receive Social Security will be glad to hear that".....You know who else will love that? The millions of young and middle-aged Coloradans who are paying into the system.

After all, a Ponzi scheme is only bad for you if you're one of the late entrants into it. I'm feeling better about our prospects in Colorado by the day.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Candidates and campaigns matter
Very few races have been engaged so far. When they are the GOP will find some real doozies on their hands. Though it cuts both ways with entrenched incumbents being lazy and people like Mike Arcuri self-inflicting wounds.
[ Parent ]
OH-Sen
I know I said I'd stop but I have to comment. The other numbers cited by Cillizza for name recognition and who people blame for the economy indicate quite clearly how important messaging is going to be in this race and obviously the elephant in the room is money or the lack of it. Sorry, it has to be said.

 

It's time for me to agree on this point finally
::sigh::  Personally, I feel like Brunner would do better in the general based off of not having been in politics for decades like Fisher, which is not going to be a plus this cycle.  But, well, screw it, if you dont have money you dont have money.
[ Parent ]
Dirty secret
I agree with you.
[ Parent ]
Maybe if this was all in a smaller state
Way too many media markets and people to chat with to grassroots it on the budget she'll have....
[ Parent ]
Scott Brown
was accused of harassing a female campaign worker in 1998. Why couldn't this have came out before the election?

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Now
to answer my own question. Martha Coakley is the reason it didn't come out. Thanks Martha!!!!!!!!!!!!

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Yup
Indicitive of their whole attitude - there was no need to bother with that stuff.
[ Parent ]
Had
this come out a week before the election we would've won. However this will likely blow over somewhat by 2012 when he's up for re-election. Great, just great.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Before we get too excited...
This sounds kind of bogus. The woman's counsel withdrew and that's why she ended up dropping the suit. It was also not harassment, but a defamation suit. It would have been a distraction for Brown if this had come out during the election, but I'd have to hear more about it to think that there's anything to it, or to put Brown in the same category as Ensign.  
[ Parent ]
Quite frankly, I'm happy Brown won
I mean think about it, if Croakly had won, we'd have 60 sen, and based on that, HCR via Reconciliation would be DOA.

It's because of Brown that we may get a more progressive bill.

He is a 1 (.6?) termer, just like Chris Cristie in NJ.  Pretty sure the MA will be solid blue by 2012.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Don't
underestimate the power of incumbency. While Obama will be on top of the ticket Brown is still personally popular as well.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Definately a one termer
Because nothing says "one-termer" like 70% approval rating.
Why does everyone assume Christie is DOA? Out of the last however many NJ govs (can't remember how far back it went) the only one's to have been re-elected were Republicans. Christie is popular and doing very good work their. While everyone has been focusing on McDonnell as the next GOP star, I honestly think if Christie keeps doing as well as he is, he is going to be a HUGE star. (no pun intended)  
[ Parent ]
I
think most people will think I'm pessimistic but I actually think Massachusetts will stay republican. Brown is very well liked. Although we do have the benefit of having Obama on the top of the ticket, which will help.        

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Obama
Thats true. But, last year Collins was re-elected in Maine with Obama at the top of the ticket. I think Brown will be like them: he will aggravate the shit outta ya'll as a blue state GOP senator that can't seem to be beaten
[ Parent ]
Possibly
But I think that's wishful thinking on your part. The special election that brought Brown into office was a perfect confluence of circumstances for him, running as he was while national Democratic popularity was at a low ebb and against one of the most inept campaigners in recent memory. Democrats have an intrinsic institutional advantage in Massachusetts that they don't have in most other blue states (like Maine), and combined with healthy presidential year turnout and a competent opponent, I really wouldn't bet on Brown overcoming it.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
It's too early to say either way
So far he hasn't had very many hard votes.  At some point Brown will have to choose between his far right funders and his left of center constituents. The vote on the Job's bill indicates he's leaning more towards the latter, but it's unclear whether he will successfully wield the mantle of the New England moderate to reelection.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Eh
Collins was a three-term incumbent in a state that tends to be quite a bit less partisan than Massachusetts (really, it wasn't until recently that Maine was as blue as it was).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I guess in this environment, 52%
is pretty popular for a governor, even a new one.

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/gove... [pdf]

[ Parent ]
Totally Agree
I personally found Christie an excellent candidate who was virtually ignored by the national GOP compared to McDonnell. Frankly, he dosen't seem to be (vice-) presidential material going forward in the same way McDonnell is but he has the makings of a great Governor. I think his template for victory should be followed by other GOP Gov candidates in Blue states like Baker in MA.

(Plus, I can see his Lt.Gov Kim Guadagno as a rising star/future Senator)

[ Parent ]
How was Christie a great candidate?
he faced numerous ethical questions (remember Michele Brown?) the entire campaign. He was saved by the national environment and Corzine's unpopularity, and possibly a backlash against the "throwing the weight around" thing.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I thought he was a smart cadidate

He did have skeletons, but that does not reflect on his skill as a candidate.  It just means he had skeletons.  He stuck to his anti-corruption message.  He effectively attaced Daggett in the end, when everyone thought it was a bad idea.  It was brilliant.  He also positioned himself perfectly to attract both moderates and conservatives.  He was respectful of Obama without agreeing with him on much.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Great campaigner perhaps
but for me that doesn't automatically make someone a great candidate per se. For me a great candidate is also someone with little baggage, good fundraising, prior political experience, etc.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Gotcha
He was a flawed candidate who was a good campaigner.  I'll settle for that.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I can agree on that
n/t

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Christie is doing very good work?
Such as what? What has he done?
[ Parent ]
I really dont think voters are going to vote for someone that fat
Let's be frank, it's a giant turn-off and to many people it says that they cant even take care of their own lives in a healthy manner why should I trust them with the country then?  I've got pudge and could eat better and exercise more, but he's a hot mess of unhealthy who, as a voter, would think would have health related concerns get in the way of his job performance.

Hell, losing a bunch of weight and being able to talk about how he got his weight in control and do the whole, we're an obese state/country and look, if I can do it you can do it, would certainly be good for his career.  I heard Huckabee's experience doing that referenced so many times in the MSM it was almost the standard line when reading an introductory thing about him as a candidate.

[ Parent ]
I
really don't think his weight is an issue. Most people (including me) could care less. Now don't get me wrong I'm not saying he is healthy, but consider the fact that New Jersey just re-elected an 85 year old last year. It would be both politically and health wise beneficial for him to lose weight, but I don't think the average family talks about the weight of their Governor when they sit around the kitchen table.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I do
It doesn't and would never bother me to vote for an anorexic or fat candidate. However, there are MANY people who would vote or not vote for someone based on their personal appearance.  
[ Parent ]
I think you're right
If it were allowed by law, I think there are many hiring managers who wouldn't consider an anorexic or fat job candidate.

The same biases apply to people who are too young or too old.

And there are no EEOC limits on voter choices.

[ Parent ]
One-termer?
Brown surprised many people before, since his first race for State Senate, and i am not sore that he is not able to surprise again at least couple of times. He has good political instincts, excellent campaigner and with such "progressive" Democratic candidates as "uberpopular" Dewall Patrick (and noy too popular Obama in 2012) people of Massachusets may reevaluate the degree of their usual Democratic allegiance. I think some elections in the state in 2010 (Gubernatorial, MA-10) will give a lot of information on the subject.

And i agree with GOPVOTER - Christie is far from DOA, and i will not be too surprised to see him reelected (under proper circumstances) in 2013.

[ Parent ]
You mean Deval Patrick
And Obama is actually pretty popular in MA. I remember reading somewhere that a narrow majority of Brown voters approved of Obama (and of course a large majority of Coakley voters).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Sorry for typo, i took name from memory and Patrick's name is somewhat unusual
If Obama would be unpopular in Massachusetts - it would be better for him not to run for reelection at all))) So - not surprised. But Democrats get almost identical percentages during last Presidential elections in state, so it's not farfetched idea to thonk that they reached some ceiling in this state. In fact - i would prefer much more vibrant 2-party system in states like Massachusetts (of course if republicans would manage to run normal moderates, not teabaggers) - there would be much less corruption in the state and  much more - healthy competition
[ Parent ]
It's worth pointing out
that corruption in the Northeast isn't limited to Democrats (Joe Bruno in NY, Buddy Cianci in RI).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Chris Christie, too
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
If Brown establishes himself as the most liberal Republican in the Senate
He could occupy a position like that of Senator Nelson of Nebraska. It is way premature to write him off. As for Christie, if he doesn't lower property taxes, he will definitely be defeated for reelection. Otherwise, who knows? He just took office; wait a while!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Exactly what i offer to do...

[ Parent ]
Same here.
I waited a while for Obama last year, and will do the same for Christie et. al. this year.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Clearest indication yet of Cuomo for Governor
He just appointed an independent counsel to investigate Paterson.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Cuomo is appointing a special investigator
for the Paterson stuff.  I guess he saw the potential conflicts looming large.  I tend to think there will be more reprecussions though, even if Paterson is cleared of interfering with the DV case - as it looks like while happen.
Social Security Not A Ponzi Scheme
The people who call Social Security a Ponzi scheme don't know what a Ponzi scheme is. Ponzi schemes are designed to fail and to bilk late participants to pay off early participants. Social Security is merely a pay-as-you-go program with a modest, and probably temporary, demographic problem which could be fixed by tweaking benefit amounts and/or the retirement age.

If Social Security were a Ponzi scheme then so would pension plans for many businesses. But they aren't, and it isn't. It really is disgraceful to hear this false talking point over and over again.

Well...
According to you Social Security is a Ponzi scheme, if it is run by Republicans.
[ Parent ]
NY-23 This means Hoffman will be getting at least a couple more votes
since he and his wife can vote for himself now.
But wouldn't it be funny if he should somehow win this November, that his district lines could easily move from redistricting next year to put him outside again?
Don't
be silly! He would just have say that he had some neighbors who were members of Acorn and wanted to escape from them.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
That demographics article
Was a fantastic read.

I think the future looks bright for dems even though it doesn't look so good in the short term.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

OH-SEN
The poll, according to cilliza's site, says only 1% of respondants blame strickland for the economy.  if that were the case wouldn't he be doing a LOT better?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Prayers for Harry Reid's wife and daughter
They were in a serious car accident with a semi truck today. Mrs. Reid has a broken neck and back, the daughter a broken nose and more. Injuries are reported to be NOT life threatening.  
I
would like to thank you for that. I was on politico and read some HORRIBLE comments from conservatives. There were people actually wishing for his family's death. Thanks for your good wishes.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Thats not most of them
Trust me, the people commenting on those types of blogs are not normal. If you have to go on a political blog and wish for the death of a politicians family, you have serious problems.
Even the people at Red State, who were speaking ill of Teddy the minute the news came out he was dead, were wishing the Reid's well.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I can't stand people who look at someone's illness or death as a positive because of politics. If Sarah Palin or Jim Demint suddenly died tomorrow I would never think of looking at it in a positive light. It disgusts me because you see many people these day's turning someone's unlikely death or illness into a positive. You saw it with Kennedy, Murtha and many others. I'm not saying that it is just conservatives; many liberals are guilty of it as well.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Typo
untimely not unlikely

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Ugh Politico
   Is it my imagination or has that site become freeper central? I used to enjoy it, but now I can't stand to read the comments. Anyway best wishes to Sen Reid and family. Hoping it's not to serious, fingers crossed.
[ Parent ]
Thank you.
I too hope everything turns out okay for the Reids.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Our GOPVOTER
[ Parent ]
Colorado Republicans and Social Security
Didn't the guy that ran against Perlmutter in the open CO-07 race in 2006 say something equally as moronic about Social Security?  O'Donnell, was it?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Dont look to Patrick Kennedy to give to the DCCC
Still, he is quick to note that he is not retiring for good. "I consider it taking a sabbatical," he says. He will transfer his roughly $500,000 in campaign funds to an interest-bearing account, which he says he might tap if he chooses to run for the Senate someday.

from MSNBC

Guess he won't be transferring any money to the DCCC to help us out in the mid-terms then.  Interesting to see that he's openly seeing he'll run for Senate if the opportunity presents itself later on.

gah
Ive been so bad about typos lately.....
[ Parent ]
And Whitehouse or Reed will be retiring . . . when?
Reed is 60 (third term, Class 2), Whitehouse is 54 (first term, Class 1).

Maybe Reed calls it quits at 65-ish in 2014 instead of going for term 4, but somehow I see him going to 71-ish ending in 2020.

Patrick Kennedy is currently 42. He will be 52-ish if Reed goes for another term.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Well
he's not a big fan of Scott Brown. Yeah he would be a carpetbagger, but he's a Kennedy so he would get away with it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Not carpetbagging
he was born in MA, he's from a MA political family, and honestly RI is just like a smaller version of MA. we both love the beach, Irish culture, and saying "bubblah." Hell Boston's commuter rail system even connects to Providence.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Could
he transfer his House money from Rhode Island to Massachusetts if he takes on Brown in 2012?      

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I would guess probably
Federal race to federal race.
[ Parent ]
PA-12
Tim Burns is the GOP nominee. No link yet. I just know someone who was there and she tweeted that he was giving his acceptance speech. Will post link when one is available.  
Just great
Great news! For ya'll! Russell gave many indications tonight that he plans on going nuclear on Tim Burns in the primary. He started his speech with attacks and said he will not step aside. NY-23 2.0, except the grassroots and establishment are on the same side here.
I'm sure the fact that he refuses to be a team player had nothing to do with him losing 85-46.  
[ Parent ]
Link
[ Parent ]
Russell is a loon
Tim Burns is by far the better GOP candidate and could have a decent shot, if he didn't have Russell nuking him from now till the election.  This is very much a Jack Davis-Jon Powers situation, where a perfectly fine candidate in a winnable race gets nuked to death by a crazy primary opponent with a lot of money.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
Russell
He doesn't have alot of money, he just raises alot of money. He spends it all though with BMW Direct or whatever their new name is. Also, Tim Burns is the more Conservative. I see no route for Russell to win. Burns was favored by the establishment and grassroots. Plus, he's a self funder. If Russell thinks he has a chance once Burns starts spending money, he's crazy.  
[ Parent ]
Georgia's "WTF?" meter just rose.
Gubernatorial candidate Neal Horsley, who had previously admitted to bestiality and willingness to sacrifice his own son for secession, has been arrested for threatening Elton John with death.

http://www.ajc.com/news/atlant...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

SSP Daily Digest: 3/11 (Afternoon Edition) | 74 comments

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