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SSP Daily Digest: 5/15

by: Crisitunity

Fri May 15, 2009 at 2:05 PM EDT


• PA-Sen: It looks like the threat of a primary from the left may be having some of the desired effect on Arlen Specter. He's engaged in negotiations on a compromise version of EFCA, and said yesterday that "prospects are pretty good" for such a bill (although it remains unclear what exactly would get cut from the bill).

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand will receive an important endorsement tomorrow: from NARAL. This may help solidify Gillibrand's pro-choice credentials in the face of possible Senate primary challenges from Reps. Steve Israel or Carolyn Maloney.

• DE-Sen: Rep. Mike Castle, the one guy who can make the open Delaware Senate race interesting, isn't promising anything right now. Castle set a decision-making deadline of "the next two months," though. (Unclear whether that's two real months or two Mark Kirk months.)

• AR-Sen: In the wake of state Senator Kim Hendren's comments about Chuck Schumer yesterday, a more competent sounding Republican has surfaced to take on Sen. Blanche Lincoln. Curtis Coleman, the CEO of SafeFoods (a "food-safety services company," whatever that is) and a close friend of Mike Huckabee, announced formation of his exploratory committee this week. Former US Attorney and Rove protege Tim Griffin may also get in; he's announced a June 1 deadline for deciding.

• KY-Sen: Rand Paul, the son of Rep. Ron Paul, moved one step closer to running in the Republican Senate primary (theoretically against Jim Bunning), launching his exploratory committee.

• NY-Gov: Observers are noting that Rudy Giuliani is definitely not looking like a candidate for next year's gubernatorial race. The tipoff is the recent departure of at least three key staff members, including former chief of staff Tony Carbonetti.

• MN-Gov: This should be something of a red flag to Tim Pawlenty: 57% of Minnesotans, according to SurveyUSA, don't want him to run for a third term as Governor. A lost gubernatorial race would basically doom his 2012 presidential aspirations, so this may up the chances of an open seat instead.

• KS-Gov: New Democratic Governor Mark Parkinson appointed a new Lt. Gov., Troy Findley. Unfortunately, Findley promptly announced that, like Parkinson, he won't be running for Governor in 2010, leaving Kansas Democrats with bare shelves in both the open senate and governor's races.

• CA-36: Earlier this week, Marcy Winograd (who got 38% of the vote against Jane Harman in the 2006 Democratic primary) officially kicked off her campaign for a rematch.

• Gay marriage: We're on the precipice of gay marriage in one more state, as New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch confirmed that he was willing to sign it into law. One catch: Lynch wants a slightly different bill, that includes additional language stating that churches aren't compelled to marry anyone they don't want. The legislature is expected to move quickly to add the new language.

• Demographics: Hispanics and Asians are still the fastest-growing groups in America, but their growth rates have slowed down in recent years as the economic downturn has cut into immigration. In particular, Hispanic growth in the Southeast slowed down. This pushes back projections of when the U.S. becomes a minority-majority country, to the 2040s. In other census news, Orange County, Florida (Orlando) became a minority-majority county in the last year (good news for Alan Grayson as he attempts to hold FL-08).

• Redistricting: Utah has an initiative on the table for the 2010 election, proposing an independent redistricting commission (instead of letting the overwhelmingly GOP legislature draw the boundaries). Interestingly, the idea just got a prominent Republican backer: former 11-term Rep. Jim Hansen.
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 5/15
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SSP Daily Digest: 5/15 | 53 comments
Specter
Apparently his spokesperson says he may yet vote for cloture on the Johnsen nomination.

Of course he will
And then if he wants to, he can vote against her. No muss, no fuss.  
[ Parent ]
Hmm
I have to check with my sources who keep telling me Rudy is definitely running for Governor. This is an interesting development.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
Well, an alternate theory
could be that some of his staffers don't want him to run for governor, and they're bailing out as he's pushing forward blindly. (Of course, that interpretation doesn't look good for him either.)
[ Parent ]
later stories
http://www.politico.com/blogs/... seem to indicate this is a big ado about nothing.
Just a gossip columnist writing defections!! trying to help sell more papers and get more web hits.
BTW:
Tony Carbonetti. Isn't that simply a great name? Like something out of world of The Sopranos. or maybe an Italian chef?
[ Parent ]
so how long can cuomo wait
before it gets silly?

i assume you need to raise a ton of money and that if he doesn't run, we could get a very messy primary.  i understand he's sitting in the catbird seat.

nay new yorkers getting inside word?

there have been conflicting reporters
that Cuomo may actually opt out of the run for Governor. I heard some rumors that he has a potential scandal involving him and Wall Street, but that was two months ago.

I've also been hearing that if Democrats think Paterson is beatable by anyone, they'll throw another candidate at him; names I've heard; Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, Rep. Anthony Weiner and Rep. Carolyn Maloney.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Paterson
I've also been hearing that if Democrats think Paterson is beatable by anyone, . . . .

Paterson seems not only beatable by anyone, but also by everyone.

[ Parent ]
Constiutional Amendment
I wish Congress would pass an Amendment requiring all states to have independent commissions draw the state and federal congressional boundaries.
Try to get the House behind it!
Bills doing just that have routinely died in committee without a hearing.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.
[ Parent ]
Kansas really bugs me
All of the Kansas Dems seem to be terrified of running against Brownback.  Brownback's approvals as Senator have always hovered in the high 40's to low 50's.  The guy is far from unbeatable.  With the ongoing rift in the Kansas GOP a moderate former repub like Parkinson could beat Brownback.  Oh well, seems the KS Dems are intent on giving this one away...
Kansas is the disaster of the year
No doubt.  We go from making inroads to a likely wipeout, except for one house seat.
[ Parent ]
the NH development is interesting
The Republican base in IA is outraged about gay marriage, and that will make it hard for a so-called moderate to make any headway in the 2012 GOP caucuses. I've heard some Republicans say moderates could take the McCain approach of skipping IA, but I wonder if now the NH Republican base will be just as riled up.
NH-Open primary
The key is that the NH Presidential Primary is an open primary.  In 2012 the action will be with the Republicans.  The large number of independents will tend to vote for the moderate Republican.  Ronald reagan could overcome this and win NH but I don't see any Ronald Reagans on the launching pad.

PS- The Iowa conservatives are religious right types; the NH conservatives tend more to the anti-tax crowd.  Different region, different focus.  As president Bartlett said on The West Wing the state's motto of "Live Free or Die" could be properly interpreted as Live Free or Die or as Cheap as You Can.

[ Parent ]
The marriage thing
Churches are allowed to refuse to marry anyone for any reason already, right? A heterosexual couple who doesn't subscribe to the rules of the LDS Church (ie being Mormon, following their principles) can't force a temple to marry/seal them, so why would a homosexual couple be able to? Is this just shallow political pandering to cover Lynch's (and Baldacci's) ass?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
Yes and no
The religion exemption is a little broader than being stated here.  See http://volokh.com/posts/124234... for a discussion.
[ Parent ]
MN-Sen
A new SUSA poll shows that by a 70-27 margin, Minnesotans think Coleman should concede rather than appeal to the US Supreme Court if the MN Supreme Court upholds the lower court ruling.  The number who think Coleman should concede keeps growing the more time passes.  Pawlenty, who is not polling so well himself, will be courting MN political suicide if he refuses to certify Franken.
Yesterday
I saw Norm Coleman walking dejectedly alone around Capitol Hill. It was... almost... a sad thing.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Hah... good stuff in that poll for liberals
64% of Minnesotans favor either civil unions or gay marriage.  Even 42% of republicans support some recognition.

A plurality of Minnesotans want the legislature to override Pawlwenty's veto on tax increases.


[ Parent ]
link
Can you link me to that poll Chad? Please. I was thinking that should Minnesota elect a Democratic governor in 2010, this would be one of the best states to push for civil unions or even marriage as Minnesota has no initiative process and also does not have constitutional bans on same-sex marriage, only a statute. Not sure if there would be enough votes to pass it, but it would be a decent pick up opportunity.  
[ Parent ]
Same link sicembers posted upthread
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

SUSA polled a whole bunch of topics in Minnesota.

[ Parent ]
Arent there alot of
Socially conservative Dems in the Iron Range and in the west? Although Oberstar himself might be good on gay rights.
[ Parent ]
West
but not Iron Range.  Bachmann country and most of the western border are the socially conservative areas.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Iron Range isnt socially conservative?
Always thought it was. maybe they just simply 'dont think about' social issues. Many blue collar folks just simply dont. People would be surprised how many folks dont actually have an opinion on, say, abortion. Although guns is a little different to folks like them I would think.
[ Parent ]
I always figured a city named St. Cloud
Was Religious Right territory. Maybe Im right ;).
[ Parent ]
German Catholics
Probably pro-life but nowhere near Religious Right evangelical fundie territory.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Germans
Overall seem to be amongst the most socially moderate of the 'ethnic white' groups. Maybe alot of it is because of the types who immigrated here. Didnt alot escape because they were part of some sort of 'socialist' movement in their homeland and felt oppressed? Ironically, many Swedish Americans are socially conservative despite Swedes (in Sweden, of course) today being pretty socially liberal. I think a big reason Swedish Americans are different is because of the types who immigrated. They immigrated from a region that, today at least, is considered the 'Bible Belt of Sweden'. Im assuming it was amongst the most socially/religiously conservative even back then.
[ Parent ]
I'm reasonably sure that's not true
I'm of German descent.  My grandfather was from the midwest, which has a high number of people of German descent.  I believe German-Americans are actually one of the more conservative groups of whites.

There really is very little connection in the U.S. between people and their family's country of origin.  Like you said, Swedes are a good example of that.

[ Parent ]
Maybe youre right
And has been said (maybe by you), socially conservative but not as socially conservative as evangelicals in the south.  
[ Parent ]
German Catholics gamble and drink almost 24/7
Robert Cornell a German Catholic priest (died a couple days ago) who represented northeast wisconsin in the House for a couple of terms in the 70s was very liberal.  Northeast Wisconsin is similar to the Iron range.
[ Parent ]
Not sure if it was CQ Politics
Or who. But someone said the Catholics in Kagen's district (NE WI) are socially conservative. Maybe on abortion but they dont strike me as being the very religious type. I had a friend from Oshkosh (a little south of Kagen's, in WI-6, and more in the central part of the state) and that area definitely strikes me as being pretty secular.
[ Parent ]
Oshkosh
East-central, rather.  Definitely not in the middle of the state.
[ Parent ]
There is quite a bit of difference between...
the Fox Valley "metroplex" (the string of small industrial towns between Oshkosh and Green Bay) and rural counties like Shawano and Waupaca.

In general I'd say the blue collar cities are pretty tolerant, while the small towns are more economic Dems.  On the other hand, this is not at all a racist area, even though there are few minorities besides the one Indian county.

[ Parent ]
Kagen's district (WI-08)
The only thing considered holy beyond question in that district is the Green Bay Packers.
[ Parent ]
Not surprised 42% of MN Repubs do
Alot of moderate Republicans there. Although Im sure many have stopped being Republican in the last few years.
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he tried.
Since when do Republicans give a flying f*** about polls?

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't put it past him
Your point is well taken, which is why I carefully worded my original post to say he would be courting political suicide in Minnesota if he refused to certify.  Now, if he doesn't plan to run for re-election and only cares what the national party thinks, then it's easy for him to ignore the poll.  If he does want to run for re-elcetion, he ignores the polls (and it will be even more lopsided in favor of seating Franken as this drags on and as you get an actual opinion from the MN Supreme Court) at his own peril.  
[ Parent ]
Its looking more and more likely
That even if Pawlenty gets the GOP nomination for Pres, in 2012, he wont even win his own home state. Ala Al Gore in 2000 in TN. But at least TN was more ideologically in sync with the Republicans than MN is with the Democrats. And if I recall Gore wasnt seen as a 'Tennessee politician' much at all by 2000. I guess alot was due to his shift left and that he was out of TN politics for 8 years.
[ Parent ]
There is no way he beats Obama in MN
He might not even come closer than McCain did in MN if that is the matchup.
[ Parent ]
Rand Paul
He was on the Rachael Maddow show last night, and I was somewhat impressed (I can't believe I'm saying this) with him as a candidate.  He basically stated that the GOP party is void of leadership, that the GOP has lost it's principles, and that it's not surprising to him at all that the Democrats are in power.  I guess he's not looking for any help with McConnell.

Of course, he's a libertarian, but he did a good job of bashing the GOP.  I think we could defeat Paul, too, so maybe if he jumps into the race that won't be a bad thing.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

Paul
No way Paul beats Bunning.  As you note, he's a solid Libertarian and they simply are not anywhere near a majority of the Republican party in KY.  Maybe he can do a little damage to Bunning or Grayson, however, so his running is likely only a good thing.
[ Parent ]
Blech
Did Ron Paul really name his son after Ayn Rand?
Or is this just a really interesting coincidence?
[ Parent ]
It would have to be.

[ Parent ]
Rand Paul has never run for office before.
And his dad is from the TX Gulf coast, not KY.  We should be able to beat him in a walk.  As long as Grayson stays out, it'll be an easy victory.
[ Parent ]
Paul Won't Be the R Nominee
Either Bunning runs, in which case he creams Paul.  Or, Bunning retires, in which case Grayson runs and creams Paul.  I don't think Paul will be any more of a serious candidate than his father was for President.
[ Parent ]
Ron Paul himself
Could move to Kentucky and get creamed by Bunning. I just cant see Kentucky Republicans agreeing with him on things like the Patriot Act, foreign policy and some other issues.
[ Parent ]
Wonder
If he would move back to Texas and run for his dad's seat once he retires. Im sure itd put alot of local Republican politicians in a weird spot. Many here im sure just quietly support Ron Paul but ideologically disagree with him on a whole host of issues. And then having to run against his son who has the same ideology...
[ Parent ]
Israel wont run for senate.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

20, male, independent, WI-07.
Florida Scorecard
From what I'm reading from local papers and readin on the net it looks like the following moves are happening as a result of Crists Senate run.

Gov - Dem Primary:
CFO Alex Sink is confirmed to be running and is almost certain to be the Dem nominee.

Gov - Rep Primary:
AG Bill McCollum is in.
Ag. Commissioner Charles Bronson (no relation to the late actor) is likely in, though he should be no threat to McCollum.

Attorney General - Dem Primary:
Gelber is likely ditching the Senate race to run for AG.  This will set up a tough fight against State Senator Dave Aronberg for the job.

Attorney General - Rep Primary:
Current Lt. Gov Kottkamp is almost certainly in and likely the favorite for the nomination.

Ag. Comm - Rep Primary:
Looks like Rep. Adam Putnam is still in and the heavy favorite.

Ag. Comm - Dem Primary:
Looks like former State House member Rick Minton is currently the favorite.

CFO - Rep Primary:
So far State Senator Jeff Atwater looksl ike the favorite.

CFO - Dem Primary:
State Senator Jeremy Ring is the only person in the race as far as I know, but I expect the field to get more crowded soon since Sink is leaving to run for Governor.


Lt. gov?
Does Lt. Gov. run with Gov as a ticket?  Guesses on who's likely?
[ Parent ]
They run as a ticket in Florida
Lt. Governor is mostly a ceremonial role with little power.  Usually the pick is someone from either a strategic part of the state or strategic demographic.  

If I were Alex Sink I'd try to find someone from the I-4 corridor or Miami area.  

The one instance I can think of where a Lt. Gov pick backfired was in 1994.  That was Jeb's first (unsuccessful) run for Governor when he picked Tom Feeney as Lt Gov.  Yes, THAT Tom Feeney.  

[ Parent ]
What are the chances
of her picking a minority? And wonder who shed choose. A well known, well connected and well liked Cuban Democrat would be a nice, shrewd political move.
[ Parent ]
Fairly good
Due to the badly gerrymandered state house ans senate maps in Florida minorities make up a very big percentage of the party's state legislators.  There are a good number of solid black legislators who would make a be a good Lt. Gov pick.  We have a few good Hispanic possibilities as well, but unfortunately we have next to no Cuban-American Democrats in the state legislature.  Republicans still have a stranglehold over the Cuban-American majority districts.  

If I were Sink I'd take a hard look at some black statelegislators from the I-4 corridor or south Florida.  Lt. Governors typically matter very little to voters, but the pick of a good black Lt. Gov. could boost their turnout.  Hopefully Meek as our nominee for Senate will also boost black turnout.

[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 5/15 | 53 comments

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