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FL-21, FL-25: Lincoln Diaz-Balart Will Retire, Switcheroo in the Works

by: James L.

Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 10:59 AM EST


Remember this scenario? The one where Charlie Crist was supposed to tap GOP Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart to fill the seat of Sen. Mel Martinez, followed by Lincoln's brother, 25th CD Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart running for Lincoln's 21st seat in the special election?

Looks like something like that may actually happen, only Lincoln has decided to make a straight-up retirement. From HotlineOnCall:

Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL) will announce later today he will not seek another term, CongressDaily reports this morning. [...]

The district is heavily Hispanic, thanks to Miami's large Cuban population. 73% of district residents call themselves Hispanic, while just 16% are white. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) won a narrow 51%-49% victory in the seat.

First elected in '92, Diaz-Balart has had little trouble holding on to his seat. His brother, Mario, represents another heavily-Cuban part of Miami. CongressDaily reports that Mario Diaz-Balart will abandon his district to run in Lincoln's, which is seen as tilting more toward the GOP.

Now, unlike the recent retirements of Republicans like Steve Buyer, Vernon Ehlers, and George Radanovich, this open seat situation could potentially yield a pair of races worth watching.

Unlike Al Gore and John Kerry, Obama performed well in both the 21st and the 25th, picking up 49% in both districts. The 21st CD has been the stronger of the two districts historically for Republicans, and I'd expect that Mario's candidacy would be a formidable stopgap for the GOP there. But if Mario does indeed make this move, his open seat in the 25th CD, where he only won 53% in 2008, could yield an interesting race to watch if Democrats can find a solid challenger.

UPDATE: Mario has confirmed that he'll run for his brother's seat.

RaceTracker Wiki: FL-21 | FL-25
James L. :: FL-21, FL-25: Lincoln Diaz-Balart Will Retire, Switcheroo in the Works
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FL-21, FL-25: Lincoln Diaz-Balart Will Retire, Switcheroo in the Works | 37 comments
Teagan Goddard from Political Wire claims
according to his Twitter Mario will switch over to run for his brother's House Seat.

http://twitter.com/pwire/statu...

How
the hell is Mario going to explain this to voters of the 21st district? And just curious but is this even legal for a sitting congressman to run in the special election of another's?  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
There is no Special
Lincoln Diaz-Balart will complete his Term.
[ Parent ]
ops
misread the article. Still it's going to be difficult for him to explain this.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
It wouldn't be illegal.
Recall the curious case of Kent Conrad from 1992.
[ Parent ]
Don't they know the district line will be redrawn in 2012?
What I dont understand about this swap is that the district lines will be redrawn in 2012. Who is to say what these districts will look like then. So Mario swapping districts really only works for him this election. For all he know he could be forced to run in his old district in 2012. Why bother with the swap if it is only good for 1 election in which Mario is not really in any danger anyways?

Doesnt make any sense to me.

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Who knows the new Lines if Sink wins?

[ Parent ]
A very big IF
Right now opposite is much more likely
[ Parent ]
To be honest I view McCollum as a pretty lousy Candidate
not to mention that he NEVER has won a competitive Statewide Contest.

2000 he lost to Bill Nelson

2004 he lost a GOP Primary to Mel Martinez

2006 he won the Attorney General Race against a pretty underfounded Democratic Candidate.

His Statewide Election Record isn't pretty.

[ Parent ]
I know all that
But right now he leads and rather by much - something about 10% if i remember correctly
[ Parent ]
It's also February
n/t

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
But 10% isn't 2%

[ Parent ]
ok, and?
aside from a Quinnipiac poll in July 07, McCain was beating Obama in every Florida poll up until early June 08 (which is when he got the "unity bounce" from Hillary's concession). In many of those polls Obama was trailing by double digits. And this is just using the most recent Florida example--many deficits of much more than 10 points have been overcome and in a much shorter time span than 8 months.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Sure
But so far i don't see factors like rapid improvement in economy, which would suggest such a "feat". If this factors will come into play, say, by May-June - one thing: then it will make sense to begin to talk about Sink's win and "Democratic redistricting". Right now it (combined with present state of economy and present polls) sounds somewhat funny, to be "politically correct"
[ Parent ]
Even in this environment
a 10-pt deficit is really not that big to recover from. The political environment in '08 was more or less static between February and September (when Obama got the "Lehman Leap") yet I can assure you the poll numbers were not static during that period. I agree that McCollum is favored for the time being but a Sink victory would not be as unlikely as you seem to suggest, especially because Sink is a pretty strong candidate.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Not to mention
McCollum is barely above 40% in any of these polls. And he is better known than Sink. I still think tossup is a fair rating.
[ Parent ]
New lines can be drawn several ways...
Sink winning obviously would be the best option, but if she doesn't...

There is a ballot iniative here this year driven by the group Fair Districts Florida to amend the state constitution. There's actually two proposals, one would prevent the blatant gerrymandering of the US Congressional Districts, and the other would be for the State Senate and House.

http://www.fairdistrictsflorid...

To win, these proposals must get 60% of the vote in a referendum this November. If they pass, this would be a huge victory for our state, since Republicans control the legislatures 2-1 even with a Democratic registration edge in the state.

So if Republicans or anyone try to gerrymander the state again, it could go to the courts here in FL by violating these two amendments.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

[ Parent ]
Indeed
Here's another question: from a strategic standpoint, why would it make any sense for Mario to abandon the more marginal of House seat in favor of shoring up the more securely Republican of the two? I can't imagine that the NRCC would have deliberately orchestrated this.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
There is now heavy pressure on Bill Young (FL-10)
not to retire.

Technically there are now two Open Districts in South florida if Mario switches.

Does anyone know in which District Miami Mayor Manny Diaz lives in?

[ Parent ]
Manny Diaz
Not sure which district he lives in, but last fall there were rumours abounding that he was thinking of running against Mario, so I assume it is the 25th.

I bet he'll take another serious look at the seat now.

(He's former Mayor now, right? Didn't his term end in November?)

[ Parent ]
Mario keep his seniority assuming he gets elected in FL-21, right?


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


I would assume so
To my knowledge, seniority is defined by continuous service in Congress.  Effectively, this should be the same as a Congressman running for a different numbered district after a redistricting change.
[ Parent ]
Some Competition Already
From the St. Petersburg Times:
State Senate Majority Leader Alex Diaz de la Portilla said he's interested in running for Congress now that U.S. Rep. Lincoln Diaz Balart is leaving. Diaz de la Portilla, R-Miami, is being forced from state office due to term limits as his own older brother, former Miami-Dade County Commissioner Miguel Diaz de la Portilla, runs for his seat. The senator's younger brother, Renier Diaz de la Portilla, is a Miami-Dade school board member. So it's good bet that the family has strong name ID, giving the senator a good shot of being dubbed a frontrunner should he throw in his hat. If he and his brother win, each Diaz de la Portilla brother would represent a different level of government: federal, state and local.

Also, the senator has recently made an alliance with lobbyist/political strategist Dave Custin, who works for the Diaz Balarts as well as Diaz de la Portilla's sometime-rival, Sen. Alex Villalobos.


I have a hunch
that Mario got some bad polling in his district, so he asked his bro to step aside. There's no other obvious reason to switch. Yeah, the district is more Republican, but switching comes with some political cost--abandoning constituents always does.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
wouldn't surprise me
Joe Garcia came close, and I'm sure local dems have been working to build upon that.  

I don't see why they did it this year, but maybe Mario is just attempting to spread his name rec across lines.  

This way, if he is redisctricted into a seat, he has 2 entire congressional districts down there that he's represented.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Yeah
The 25th district is a clear example of gerrymandering, with its inclusion of completely separate communities, including towns south of Miami and then mostly Republican parts of Naples on the other side of the state. Of course Mario created the district in the state legislature to give it this slight Republican tilt for his own advantage. However, as the Miami part of the district has grown and views have changed, the district has become politically closer and I think it will also be more difficult to gerrymander it much worse for Democrats in the future.  
[ Parent ]
For heaven's sake
Does every Cuban-American politician in greater Miami have Diaz in his/her name?

As it stands right now, we could have a Republican primary to replace Lincoln Diaz-Balart in FL-21 between Mario Diaz-Balart and Alex Diaz de la Portilla (who himself apparently has two politically ambitious brothers), and potentially, Manny Diaz running to replace Mario Diaz-Balart in FL-25.

Sheesh. I have to imagine voters getting at least a little bit confused.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

Can anyone recall this ever happening before...
...an incumbent switching districts without being forced to by redistricting?

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
I can't
And we've yet to hear any kind of explanation for such a bizarre move. Methinks Mario's gonna have a rougher time in the primary than he likely anticipated.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Suddenly, I want to run
a goomba against him in the primary.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
10%
With Lincoln's retirement, this means 10% of the Republican caucus isn't running for re-election.
We need candidates for BOTH seats stat.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
well
We already have candidates in both. What we need is top tier candidates in both.

2010 Race Tracker Wiki
[ Parent ]
/\ That's what I meant.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
This is somewhat baffling
I mean, it's not as if the 21st is 5 points more Republican or anything. Plus, Mario loses some incumbency advantage. There has to be some kind of name recognition motive, perhaps the redistricting one as highlighted above or perhaps enhancing a future statewide run. Perhaps Mario plans to run against Nelson in 2012? That might be somewhat problematic if Rubio wins in 2010 (two Cuban Senators might be seen as too many, Crist might enter and have more support due to the recognised greater difficulty in defeating an incumbent than an open seat).
Anyone know how the precinct-level data looks?
What I'm getting at is: I wonder if parts of this area further in-land/away from the Atlantic/Miami area are still showing signs of Republican strength while the rest are getting blue.  Could Mario feel that the ability of Republicans to support all three Cuban districts is waning, so he'll go to the area that can better be shored up.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Send Bob Menendez
Find two democratic cuban americans candidates and send Bob Menendez to campaign for them and the democratic senate candidate.

The cubans loves Bob Menendez intensly!  

FL-21, FL-25: Lincoln Diaz-Balart Will Retire, Switcheroo in the Works | 37 comments

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