Google Ads


Site Stats

AR-01: Marion Berry Will Retire

by: James L.

Sun Jan 24, 2010 at 6:44 PM EST


The Fix:

Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry is expected to announce his retirement tomorrow morning, according to three sources briefed on the decision. [...]

Berry, first elected in 1996, had been noncommittal about his re-election bid for months although, privately, his allies insisted he was planning to run for re-election. [...]

The field to replace Berry isn't yet set although Democrats mentioned include state Rep. Keith Ingram and Jason Willett, a former state party chair. On the Republican side, broadcaster Rick Crawford is in the race.

Yet another open seat for Democrats to defend, and the second one in Arkansas after neighboring Rep. Vic Snyder announced his retirement last week. While Al Gore actually won this district by a 50-48 margin in 2000, the CD, like much of the rest of Arkansas, has taken a redder turn in recent years. John Kerry lost the district by five points in 2004, while McCain beat Obama by a 59-38 margin in 2008.

Nonetheless, this is Arkansas, a state where Democrats have dominated further down the ticket and where they have a pretty deep bench of home-grown candidates. (This explains why the GOP hasn't been able to come up with a stronger candidate than Crawford at this point.) Candidate recruitment will be pretty key for Democratic hopes here -- and even then, expect a tough fight.

UPDATE: The Hotline has some more candidate buzz:

GOPers are not set on Crawford as their nominee. One source pointed to State Rep. Davy Carter (R), businessman/'84 GOV nominee Woody Freeman (R) and businessman Chris Fowler (R) as possible candidates. Ex-AR Farm Bureau chair Stanely Reed (R) lives in the district, but he abandoned a Senate bid after a single week for medical reasons.

AR AG Dustin McDaniel (D) would be an instant front-runner, if he decides to make the race.

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-01
James L. :: AR-01: Marion Berry Will Retire
Tags: , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

AR-01: Marion Berry Will Retire | 219 comments
One more seat gone


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Now that Berry is retiring . . .
The Republicans will find a much better candidate than Crawford.
Well, Ross . . .
Wanna complete the set?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
I wish he'd gone first

and Vic Snyder were staying on.  Sadly, not so.
[ Parent ]
Him and Blanche both.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Hey its Lincoln's old district
Maybe she will switch races. I am not saying she will win but hey it could save us a Senate seat. Does anyone remember the last sitting Senator to run for the House?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
And maybe Joe Biden
Could step down as VP to run for DE-Sen, while we're at it.
[ Parent ]
Didn't John C Calhoun do that?
Was it due to the Peggy Eaton thing, or nullification?

(Calhoun was Jackson's VP, who resigned to take the Senate seat from SC, in protest of one of the above two things)

[ Parent ]
More a result of nullification ...
Calhoun and President Jackson came to hate each other almost as much as Clay and Jackson hated each other.  It was to an extent over nullification, and even more generally when it became clear that Jackson chose Martin Van Buren, and not Calhoun, to groom as his successor.
[ Parent ]
Well I know its not going to happen
But can you blame me for having wishful thinking?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
2 points
On the one had the Dems have a much better talent poll in this district.  On the other hand people who no one knows are beating Lincoln right now.  Maybe Arkansas just refuses to vote D at the federal level in 2010.  Maybe a current D state legistator will switch to R for this race?

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
AR
Horrible news.  Hopefully this is the end of these retirements.

29/D/Male/NY-01
I think we are now down
To people changing their mind after they said they were running. The last week might just do that.
[ Parent ]
retirements
how many retirements are we up to now?

22, male, VA-10
11 plus 2 resignations
Tennessee 6 (Gordon) R+13
Louisiana 3 (Melancon) R+12
Arkansas 1 (Berry) R+8
Tennessee 8 (Tanner) R+6
Arkansas 2 (Snyder) R+5
Kansas 3 (Moore) R+3
Washington 3 (Baird)D+0
New Hampshire 2 (Hodes) D+3
Pennsylvania 7 (Sestak) D+3
Alabama 7 (Davis) D+18
Florida 17 (Meek) D+34

Hawaii 1 (Abercrombie) D+11
Florida 19 (Wexler) D+15

[ Parent ]
How many did we have in 94?
If it starts to get near that number then I might get worried.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
20 retired
and 8 ran for higher office

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Good question
The GOP were +54 in total.

They won 58 seats previously held by Dems of which 34 were incumbents. Dems won 4 open seats.

[ Parent ]
Question...
I'm not sure if Conspiracy of anyone can answer this but out of the 54 seats they picked how, how many of those were from seats that were trending away from us to begin with but took a wave election to finally turn it red?

[ Parent ]
Link
[ Parent ]
Well the good news is
Well be able to keep the two seats that are being vacated and out of the 11 open seats six i'm sure we can keep (Meek, Davis, Hodes, Baird, Snyder and Tanner). Two i'm on the fence on (Sestak and Berry) and two we can definetly kiss goodbye for sure (Gordon and Melancon). But like one of the poster said here, hopefully the buck stops with Marion Berry but I wish him luck in his future endevors, if he has any.
[ Parent ]
I'm less certain
Meek and Davis yes. Hodes and Baird are less difficult than Snyder and Tanner but all four could easily fall. This one depends on who runs. Liken the PVI suggests it is right inbetween possible hold and already gone.
[ Parent ]
You could be right
But campaigns and candidates matter. We alrady got good candidates running to replace the ones in swing districts i'm optimistic of keeping. If they run good campaigns they have a good chance of winning.  
[ Parent ]
Speaking of which
That includes running active campaigns in Alabama, Hawaii and Florida. As we have seen anything can happen.
[ Parent ]
Outside of Meek and Davis
I wouldn't be overly confident about keeping the other seats. The Dems definitely have a decent chance of keeping the seats you mentioned, but their is also a distinct possibility they could lose them. You also forgot Moore, the way the race is shaping up, strong R challenger with No D to speak of yet, it is also in the likely goner category as well.  
[ Parent ]
I forgot to mention Moore
Yeah kiss his seat goodbye as well, thanks for the reminder. Yeah they have a chance to lose if they don' run good campaigns and blow it. But since we got good candidates to replace the swing district Congressmen i'm optimistic of holding if they run good campaigns they can win.
[ Parent ]
I think you are underestimating
the other side. You have to be in a pretty Democratic district for it to be, as long as I run a good campaign I win. In all these swing districts if the Republicans run a good campaign and you run a good camp either of you could win. Also in pretty much all the districts you mentioned, the R's have solid candidates.

Take TN-6, the Democrats have that awesome pickup of the guy who was running for governor. He is a great candidate and will probably run a great campaign. He could still lose b/c the republican is highly touted and if they run a campaign that is just as good or almost as good they will likely win due the cycle and the fact the district has a PVI of R+6.
Just saying that the Dems are not Hamlet and do not have the sole ability to decide their own fate.  

[ Parent ]
Believe me
I don't live in a pretty blue Dem district, I live in a district that's over R+5 if i'm not mistaken. Look i'm not saying these guys are shoo in to win, i'm saying if they find good candidates and run good campaigns they have a chance to win. But if the Republican runs a better campaign and gets his message across better then the Dem he can win s well. That's why with the districts I mentioned i'm not as worried as say Moore or Melancon's district because he got a good bench that consists of candidates that can campaign and win but in no way i'm saying Roy Herron or even Bill Halter are shoo-in's, they'll have to work hard to win.
[ Parent ]
Roger
Thanks for making the distinction
[ Parent ]
No Problem Jfindl1.

[ Parent ]
That's actually TN-08
n/t

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
oops
Yeah u are right.
[ Parent ]
Less optimistic
Davis, Meek- sure

Hodes, Baird, Snyder, Tanner, Sestak, Berry - on the fence

Gordon, Mekancon - probably gone

Though a lot wiil depend on candidates. In Arkansas, for example (especially in more rural and more "southern" Berry's district) Democrats neeed not especially liberal candidate. It will be interesting to see what prevails - long Democratic tradition and very deep Democratic bench, or recent "red tide"

[ Parent ]
Don't forget Dennis Moore...
His seat is gone for sure. You basically have the same views I have on the open seats. As for Arkansas, your right it will depend on the candidates and the campaigns they run. It's been beaten like a dead horse but campaigns and candidates matter and for the two seats in AR is they find strong candidates (which I believe they can given the bench they have in both districts) and run very strong candidates they can prevail through the "Red Tide" as you put it.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Moore seat is gone. Best chance for Democrats now in this district - relatively moderate Republican candidate. Melancon's district probably could be saved (though with conservative Democratic candidate only) if it wouldn't be so openly slated for extintion after 2012 redistricting. Thae way it is - no serious initiative for serious vandidate to run...
[ Parent ]
Well I think Nick Jordan is running for the GOP
And he's supposed to be a bit of a moderate. To be honest I find it intrestring about Kansas. We have NO candidate to run for Governor, he got our only Dem Congressman in that state retiring and his district is the only place in the state that can be favorable (I believe Obama narrowly won the district) and out of the few legislative seats we hold, a good bit are in that district but no one will step up but we got Republican Congressman Todd Tihert running for Senate and we got what I would think a solid candidate in State Rep Raj Goyle who's raised a decent about of money but won't win because of the nature of the nature. Now tell me that ain't screwed up?

As for Melancon's seat, I think the reason why no Dem will step up is because they'll be gone when redistricting happens.

[ Parent ]
Just what i was saying...

[ Parent ]
Davis
Davis leaving is a plus. He was a blue dog despite being a D+18 seat. Same with Meeks. Now we need to just make sure the replacements are true progressives and make those seats more representative of the breakdown.
[ Parent ]
The Swing State Project
Keeps very careful track of this sort of thing. (Of course, we have not yet added Berry's name as this just happened.)
[ Parent ]
son of a b*tch
didn't Berry say he was staying in previously?  

Well, this one's going to be a very tough hold at R+8 and trending away.  I'm on the fence as to whether to call it gone, my instinct tells me that it might be.  Maybe if we get a great candidate and they don't, with Beebe at the top of the ticket, just maybe we hold this one.  But I'm not optimistic.  

I don't feel nearly as good about this one as I do neighboring Arkansas-2, especially if either Halter or Clark get in.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

I think it might
end up like neighboring TN-08; i.e. don't get your hopes up too high, but it's not going down without a stiff fight at least.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
PVI Misleading
While it voted for McCain, at the state level it is certainly not R+8. Berry ran unopposed in 2008. That tells you something. Arkansas votes for Republicans only at the Presidential level. Don't let the PVI fool you.
[ Parent ]
This makes me worried about Baron Hill
That poll probably scared the shit out of him, plus Massachusetts. I usually get these annoying fundraising or campaign emails from him almost every two weeks it seems like, and I have not gotten one for ages now. I would not put it past Hill to take back his word and jump ship. I really hope the buck stops with Berry.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Hill
Does he want to run for Governor in 12?  

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
Yea
I think that is his goal, I know he almost ran in 2004 (ironically the one year he lost) and at least thought about it in 2008.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't worry about Hill
He faced so many races againist Sodrel and Sodrel has won only once, he probally knows he can beat him. As for Berry i'm not worried because of the good bench. It's not like Bart Gordon's or Charlie Melancon's seat where they announced there retirement awhile back and there yet to be candidates to step up to try to keep the districts intheir corner.
[ Parent ]
Arkansas
isn't as bad as Tennessee. Any progress the GOP made in the state under the Clinton years was washed away during the Bush years. Though it's disturbing that Democrats in swing to GOP districts are packing up their bags now.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I know AR isn't as bad as TN
I mean for god's sake their dem governor has to be the most popular governor we got in our party, that's good. I agree the progress the GOP had made has been washed away. In the eight years Bush has been in office they lost one House seat (Jay Dickey's seat, now held by Mike Ross), Tim Hutchinson Senate seat (now held by Mark Pryor) the Lt.Governor office (Bill Halter) and Governor (Mike Beebe) and as for the legislature I have no idea if the GOP has gained or lost any seats, maybe ARDem can help me out. This is why i'm optimistic about keeping the two AR seats because it's not that bad outside of the Presidential level and we got good benches there. But I don't like that Berry and Snyder are packing up, I liked those guys and had alright voting records.
[ Parent ]
arkansas
Then why did McCain get 59%  of the vote face it Arkansas is going republican just like every other southern state and Berry's seat is going red.
[ Parent ]
You have no idea what split ticket voting is do you?
States like AR don't vote Dem on the Presidential level but dominates on the local/federal level. Take a look we control every statewide office and have supermajorities in the Legislature. Their Dem Governor have uber ppular approval ratings. Like I said, you have no idea what's going on.
[ Parent ]
I live in Arkansas and the politicial environmanet is rapidly changing and becoming republican

[ Parent ]
Yeah Okay...
Come back to me when uber popular Governor Beebe loses and the GOP takes over the legislature in which they are in a deep minority. The fact remains AR is a red state on the Presidential level but elects Dems on the local/federal level, same goes with WV. RAPIDLY changing my foot.
[ Parent ]
Yeah Okay...
Come back to me when uber popular Governor Beebe loses and the GOP takes over the legislature in which they are in a deep minority. The fact remains AR is a red state on the Presidential level but elects Dems on the local/federal level, same goes with WV. RAPIDLY changing my foot.
[ Parent ]
Yeah Okay...
Come back to me when uber popular Governor Beebe loses and the GOP takes over the legislature in which they are in a deep minority. The fact remains AR is a red state on the Presidential level but elects Dems on the local/federal level, same goes with WV. RAPIDLY changing my foot.
[ Parent ]
arkansas
Beebe is a Dino at best but in reality is one of the last truly conservative southern democrat politicians. He is the last of a dying breed who cut the state budget 3% this year alone and lowered taxes while being pro-gun and anti-gay marriage and will one day be replaced by a republican along with many of the current democrat state legislators who are being challenged right now by well funded and organized republicans.The democrat brand name in Arkansas is in bad shape and many current politcans attempt to distance themselves from the brand whenever possible. To put this in prospective Berry's seat hasn't been held by a republican since reconstruction and will most likely change hand foreshadowing what will happen in the rest of the state.
[ Parent ]
Beebe maybe a DINO
But he's still uber popular and for a Dem in that state that's great. The fact that Berry's seat hasn't been represented by a GOPer in 200 years makes me optimistic for the seat and regardless of the brand the party is still strong. It holds all the ststewide offices and have supermajorities in the Legislature and have grest benches to keep the seats of Snyder and Berry. Ultimately it will come down to candidates and campaigns and if the Dems can get good candidates like Bill Halter and canrun good campaigns they can win.
[ Parent ]
Halter
Halter is to liberal and would be destroyed in a federal race. Walmart would not tolerate his strong union ties.
[ Parent ]
He would get destroyed
By a guy who had a big role in the US Attorney's scandal because of his liberal views. Doubt it. Then how did Halter win statewide with those views then.
[ Parent ]
Not sure how significant it is
that Democrats have run that state for 200 years. Remember that district in the Adirondacks where there had been no Democratic Representative since they were called the Democrat-Republicans in the 1850s? Well, it now has a Democratic Representative.

I am now becoming very pessimistic about the Democrats' chances in 2010. They'd better run scared in the RIGHT way, by getting major things done, instead of freezing up like deer in headlights and getting killed in the high-speed crash that is coming in that case. The Republicans seem to have inertia with them, and we all know that only a counteracting force can effective oppose inertia.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
You can't compare NY-23 to Marion Berry's district
Because of the craziness that went on up there. As for 2010 don't be pessmistic. What I mean is calm down. I don't back down from what i've been saying all along, a 30 seat loss in the House and a 5 seat loss in the Senate. I don't see Boehner as Speaker in '11 nor do I see McConnell as Majority Leader in '11. Let's just calm down for the moment Pan, we got nine months to the election, alot of things can happen.
[ Parent ]
A 5-seat loss in the Senate would be very bad
But not as bad if the remaining Democrats had already gotten used to passing major legislation through Reconciliation.

If you read my post in the spirit I intended it, my point is that the Democrats are facing a strong headwind, strengthened by recent elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and Massachusetts and increasing retirements, and that, while they are indeed likely to lose seats, they can blunt the losses a great deal if they actually do things to decrease unemployment and otherwise palpably improve the lot of Everyman and Everywoman, and run strongly on that. If they become more timid, I think now that they will stand a good chance - in that circumstance - of losing both Houses.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
First off....
A five eat loss isn't bad because it's better than a takeover. Second you can't compare our situtation to NJ, VA or MA because we were saddled with bad candidates that didn't run good campaigns and which lead to the voters not coming out.

Second losing only 30 seats in the House isn't bad, just expected and were not losing both Houses. Our situtation isn't that drastic Psn, so calm down. If they do nothing will ever get done. Sorry but your wrong man.

[ Parent ]
A 30-seat loss in the House
is not as bad as a 5-seat loss in the Senate, because of the filibuster rule.

But I really don't think you understand where I'm coming from. I'm saying if the Democrats in Congress get even more timid and slow to act, they will lose big. They NEED to act! In a 2-party system, the party that's in power when the shit hits the fan - or in this case, when the shit isn't being wiped off the fan quickly enough - gets booted.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I'm not saying a five seat loss is bad it is because of the filibuster, but better than a takeover. I think they will act big on this espically when HCR gets passes and when they start to work on the economy which I believe they'll do but regardless well still lost because we been sucessful in two wave elections in which we took back the legislative and executive. Now this is the midterm and were the party in power and there the ones that lose in the midterms. I understand competely and cyrstal clear where your coming from Pan. But I do believe they will act like you said they need to.
[ Parent ]
I'm not so sure that losing our "filibuster-proof" majority is really a bad thing.
For starters, we never really had one. And Coakley's loss may actually be a blessing in disguise.

http://usliberals.about.com/b/...

Follow my reasoning:

* If Republicans win Ted Kennedy's Senate seat tomorrow, Democrats' vaunted 60-seat super-majority is gone.
* As a result, no amount of intra-party compromising with DINOs Joe Lieberman, Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, and the like will allow Democrats alone to overcome Republican attempts to filibuster bills.
* However, urgent bills can be passed via the reconciliation process, which requires only a simple majority of 51 votes.
* If Obama further dilutes the Senate health bill by compromising for Republican votes, he risks losing dozens of House votes for the final, integrated bill.
* Logically, since Obama no longer needs to dilute the bill for the DINOs, he is free to add back liberal reforms that will retain only 51 Senate votes, not 60 votes.
* Thus, the Senate bill would become closer to the more liberal House bill, which includes a single payer option.



My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
My silver lining is that at least we would have some ability to blame the Republicans.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Do you really think the voters will buy that?
Won't the voters say, if the Democrats can't get things done with an 18-vote majority in the Senate, they are [insert derogatory reference to genitalia here]? I don't think that crying about filibusters will carry a lot of weight, but I could be wrong.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
You could be right
It didn't work with the GOP about five years ago when they wanted to elimate the filibuster to get Bush's judicial nominations confirmed (Nuclear Option).
[ Parent ]
Probably not.
But at least it would be there as opposed to "A fillibuster-proof majority isn't enough!  We need more seats to finally get something done.  We promise we'll do it this time!"

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Maybe
But regardless of the compromises the HCR bill is never in trouble in the House despite losing all those liberal votes so the site claims and the worry is in the Senate and believe me rgardless of what the site wants single payer won't pass in the Senate. Regardless of what the site wants. As for the compromises made, it was done to get the bill through the Senate but that's not the issue, the issue is how to pass thigs through the Senate without 60 votes. But I don't understand it says without the 60 vote filibuster won't we have to compromise more not less with the GOP because we don't have the votes on our own or we don't have to compromise if we use reconciliation because it only takes 51 votes so we afford losing Ben Nelson, Joe Lieberman. Is that what the site is getting at.
[ Parent ]
The point
is to use reconciliation so we don't have to compromise on urgent matters.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Reconciliation can't be used to create new programs
Seriously, if you want to cover 30+ million additional people it can't be done via reconciliation. Reconciliation is really only for tax and spend issues.  
[ Parent ]
That's what I thought
Thanks for pointing it out.
[ Parent ]
Tim's Right
Tim's right. If things can go from where they did when Obama was elected to where they are now they can go back too. It's been 1 yer. Luckily, we have 1 more year before the elections.

Also, if we love seats from Blue Dogs who voted against the party half the time what are we losing? Sure, Pelosi will get fewer votes for Speaker but she will get the same number of votes on crucial legislation.

BTW, has anyone else heard of the possible Democratic coup of the Leadership. I've heard some young Dems like Chris Van Hollen and Anthony Weiner are thinking of trying to push Pelosi out because they don't think she's populist enough or a good enough communicator.

I go to school here in DC and I've been hearing some rumors. Just wondering if anyone else had heard anything.

[ Parent ]
No, Pelosi will not
Exactly because even bluest of Blue Dogs vote about 40-50% of time with leadershop. The ultrarightwing Republicans (the only people, who otherwise will get elected from their districts, don't even mentipn "progressives" there) will give zero support. So, if no Blue Dogs will exist - Pelosi will have votes about 180-190 liberals, elected from 180-190 (there is no more) liberal districts in US - ath that's all. It's easy to calculate that to have a working majority in House Pelosi needs about 60 Blue Dogs in addition to 180-190 liberals. That 60 Blue Dogs will give her about 30 votes on most important legislation and 30 +190 = 220 (majority)

It's in Pelosi interests to preserve as much Blue Dogs as possibe in 2010 and, being a smart politician - she does all she can for that. Some wild-eyed "pure liberals" don't understand that? That's their problem, not Pelosi and not Blue Dog's...

[ Parent ]
For how long?
You can't keep thinking that people who don't vote for Democrats at the top of the ticket because they think Democrats are going to kill their fetuses, hand over the country to illegal Mexican Islamic terrorists, allow gay sex on Sesame Street, etc. to do so with any regularity at the bottom of the ticket.  

As I've said before, the re-alignment here in Georgia has largely been a top-down affair.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Well it's been a top down affair
Because the GOP for their credit have found good candidates to take out the Dems and take control of their state, they had a plan and solidify their plan when they took over the legislature changed the congressional map to oust Barrow and Marshall. That was about four years ago and haven't been sucessful yet but it keeps both from getting truely entrenched in their districts.
[ Parent ]
Ok
Where to start....

1. The farther down the ticket in partisan races, the more local the candidate, which means more interaction with constituents. Not everyone votes for or against a candidate because of the issues or party. Let's take for instance George Hooks, the Dean of the GA Senate. Hooks is beloved in the district by Democrats and Republicans. He represents the largest (in geographical terms) state legislative seat in the nation. Most of the counties are either reliably Republican at the top of the ticket, or trending that way. However, the GOP has trouble even fielding a candidate against Hooks. Why? He might be a Democrat but his constituent services are unbelievable. If he's not at the Gold Dome, he's traveling throughout the district. He's easy to get a hold of whether he's in Americus or Atlanta. He's a Conservative Democrat that fits the district.

Republicans have made gains and it is likely to continue, however, splitting the ticket is nothing new in this country and to think it'll suddenly stop in Georgia is far fetched.

In many of the areas where Republicans have made major gains, the Democrats have survived by simply showing they're Georgia Democrats, an entirely different breed than the liberal national party.

Besides, when it comes to a race such as Coroner, are you really believing a majority of voters will vote for a R over a D because of party affiliation? Come on now.

2. I thought it was common knowledge that Georgia's Republican shift has been a top-down event. The books I've read on GA politics have stated nothing to the contrary and I've yet to hear someone say anything different. Heck, you can randomly pick counties, especially smaller ones, and look at the SOS's website and in most cases the local elected officials are mostly Democrats, but the county has trended Republican at the top of the ticket.

[ Parent ]
Dustin McDaniel
How serious a possibility is it that the state AG will jump in and bail us out here?

Male, 23, DC-At Large
It would be nice


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Well since this news just happened..
I'm guessing well find out real soon. Hope he takes the plunge for us.
[ Parent ]
That would be great candidate recruitment
However, if he is an up and coming star in the state, why not wait until the current gov retires or until 2016 to run for Senate (b/c right now Lincoln isn't going to win without some sort of miracle)? It seems like risking his political future for a seat that is trending GOP in an election cycle that is not in his favor is a risky play, especially for a House seat.  
[ Parent ]
This sucks
The two (Snyder and Berry) that actually did the right thing on healthcare reform are leaving but the two assholes (Ross and Lincoln) are, at this point, still running (and, for Lincoln, going to lose anyways).

As an aside, what are the chances Arkansas is like New Mexico last year: the entire House delegation open to contest a Senate seat that is open.  Boozeman has said he's thinking about running for the Senate.  Ross has put himself in no man's land and has had some ethics problems (anyone know how bad they are?).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

It sucks completely,,,
Not just this but it seems like the seats we are going to hold are by Dems that has good voting records like the two you mentioned and Tom Perriello but the obstructionist stay. I mean i'm optimistic we can hold these two seats but I still don't like it. As for the whole House delegation changing, doubt it since Ross isn't going anywhere and dosen't even have a credible opponent. Shoot there were two elections he ran unopposed.
[ Parent ]
There has been a netroots belief
That only Blue Dogs will lose. It was always a fallacy.
[ Parent ]
Is that why FDL keeps polling blue dogs?


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Snyder and Driehaus
Aren't Blue Dogs.
[ Parent ]
My mistake


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
But Driehaus is a New Dem

[ Parent ]
Labels mean little to me
I'm more concerned how they actually vote. Unfortunately losts of good people are going down while less good ones survive. And for that reason I might add.
[ Parent ]
What is the difference?
I have always wondered that.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Not much
New Dems are meant to be pro-business but it isn't like some of the Blue Dogs are pro-consumer with some of their votes.
[ Parent ]
I think there's a significant difference
To me, Gary Hart is the prototype of the modern New Dem, typified today by Maria Cantwell. The pro-business lean of this crowd has a strong high-tech tinge.

To me, Chuck Robb is the prototype of the modern Blue Dog, typified today by Mark Pryor. The populist lean of this crowd has a strong protectionist tinge.

[ Parent ]
Chuck Robb
Was one of the founders of the DLC, but he was more liberal on social issues than a lot of Blue Dogs are.  
[ Parent ]
Point well taken
But I did try to imply with my choices that "New Dem" and "Blue Dog" have evolved over the years.
[ Parent ]
They're not
they're polling vulnerable moderates who voted for the House bill.  
[ Parent ]
Isn't that the truth
But the netroots believe alot of things that turns out to be a fallacy so it dosen't suprise me.
[ Parent ]
The national environment created by the Blue Dogs is pulling everyone down.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Them least of all
that's the point
[ Parent ]
Well, they're bearing a very large portion of it, too.
(Off the top of my head)

Tanner, Gordon, Moore, now Berry are all retiring.  Melancon is going to try to step up to the Senate but will likely get beat down.  Griffith chickened out and bolted the party (and is still going to lose).  Arcuri's in trouble.  Sanford Bishop SHOULD be okay, but he has a more respectable challenger this year who's raise a respectable amount of money.  Bright, Minnick, Kratovil are probably dead meat.  Shuler and Marshall had avoided challengers but there have been rumbles of re-newed interest.

And non-Blue Dog conservadems are looking at umemployment.  Blanche looks fucked.  Bayh is possibly going to get a big challenge.  Boucher avoided one (IIRC), but who knows if that'll change.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Blanche is fucked no doubt
But it looks likely that Pence won't challenge Bayh. We should have good candidates to replace Berry and Tanner. Arcuri is not in trouble, that election was close because he didn't pay any attention to it, this year he will. I'm in agreement of the Congressmen you say are dead meat.
[ Parent ]
Huh
"Sanford Bishop SHOULD be okay, but he has a more respectable challenger this year who's raise a respectable amount of money.  Bright, Minnick, Kratovil are probably dead meat.  Shuler and Marshall had avoided challengers but there have been rumbles of re-newed interest."

Keown is barely a notch above Ferrell. Just because he's a State Rep does not make him a "more respectable challenger". Bishop is safe. Besides, in a worst case scenario, Bishop can win the district by winning three counties.

Are you familiar with Bright's base? Did you know that Roby is not the only Republican in the race now? Bright won because he's from the Wiregrass region but has a base in Montgomery as well. Roby's base in simply Montgomery, same as Love's in 2008. To beat Bright, the GOP will need someone like Smith in 2008 that can mimic Bright's coalition.

The GOP Primary for Marshall's seat has been stacked for months now, but none of the candidates are considered top tier. All of the highly touted candidates against Marshall declined to run. What renewed interest are you talking about?

[ Parent ]
This is a dream scenario I thought up that will never happen.
Lincoln retires, Beebe runs to succeed her, Halter runs for Governor, Clark runs for Congress, and McDaniel runs for this seat. Also a big rainbow crosses the sky and we get world peace and happiness.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Its not a rainbow its a strom cloud
Its a Republican cycle in a Republican-trending, all except Beebe would stand a good chance of losing.  
[ Parent ]
Urgh
I thought we got rid of that old fossil in 2002!
[ Parent ]
Conspiracy, what old fossil are you talking about?

[ Parent ]
Ask Trent Lott

[ Parent ]
I'm Sorry
But what does Lot have to do with what were talking about? He's been out of the Senate for years now.
[ Parent ]
You know what they say
When you have to explain it then it wasn't funny to begin with! "Its not a rainbow its a STROM cloud".  
[ Parent ]
Trust me, it wasn't funny to begin with
Nothing involving Strom Thurmond is funny.
[ Parent ]
ooops
I really meant to type in Storm cloud. srry
[ Parent ]
Not Necessarily
Except Lincoln, who is DOA. With the right campaigns and candidates all have the chance of winning whatever it's Halter running for Snyder's seat or McDaniel running for Berry's seat. Campaigns and candidates matter.
[ Parent ]
Beebe
Republicans have allot on Beebe if he runs for Senate which he has shown little interest in but if he does win he is the only person who could this seat.
[ Parent ]
Like what?
What do they have on Beebe?  
[ Parent ]
Rep. Boozman to run against Lincoln
A piece of a New York Times Article leaves NO DOUBT: Boozman is challenging Lincoln.

Representative John Boozman, Republican of Arkansas, said the results in Massachusetts had pushed him toward challenging Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, a vulnerable Democrat. "If the people of Massachusetts are upset, you can imagine how the people of Arkansas feel," Mr. Boozman said in a telephone interview Sunday night.

That sucks
Would the race rank change if Boozman runs?

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah: Safe GOP.
Not that that wasn't going to eventually happen. Oh well i'll shed no tears for Blanche Lincoln.  
[ Parent ]
Now she's toast...
If her polling numbers are dismal againist 2nd-3rd tier candidates. Lord only knows how they will look againist a credible candidate.
[ Parent ]
In a Case Like This
Will it matter much? I mean how much lower can her numbers go? It seems like all persuadeables are against her, regardless of the name of the R. So if the anti-incumbent environment is what's (mostly) driving down her numbers, will opponent quality matter that much?
[ Parent ]
This means that Baker will probably run in Snyder's district
and that will not help us.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Doesn't he have ethical issues?

[ Parent ]
He was the leading canidate


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I know
But isn't there something ArkDem was always talking up as something that could be used against him?
[ Parent ]
Yeah
IIRC, he served as a character witness for a rapist or something like that.
[ Parent ]
Lincoln's Numbers
I just meant in turn of Lincoln's numbers. I don't know that they can really go appreciably lower than they already are. Certainly this could shake-up the House races.
[ Parent ]
" Certainly this could shake-up the House races."
It could be, we will have to see.
[ Parent ]
It won't matter at all
Whatever it's Boozeman, Hendren or Baker. She's DOA no matter what.
[ Parent ]
I think you're right
What I'm hearing is that Boozman is the Number 2 in AR after Huckabee in Popularity.

I also heard that fmr. Rep. Asa Hutchinson (R) will run for his old House Seat once Boozman has entered.

[ Parent ]
Well that kills any take over chance there
not that there was really much of a chance to begin with.
[ Parent ]
She was always toast
think this is a move to push Halter out. Halter wouldn't stand a chance against Boozman.  
[ Parent ]
odd
that Boozman would talk to the NY Times.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
It's a bit odd
But I see why. This is a national race and the NYT is the national paper. But it's still odd he didn't contact's AR largest paper first, which is the one in Little Rock I believe.
[ Parent ]
Upside
This might push her to finally bow out in favor of an untainted guy like Halter.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Maybe
Well have to wait for the fallout and since were only nie months till election day, the fallout will be quick.
[ Parent ]
I doubt Halter would go against Boozman


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
halter
Halter is to liberal and when contrasted with Boozeman he will be easily defeated in this type of election environment especially with his union ties which are not tolerated in a state where walmart has it hq
[ Parent ]
I wish we could get Wesley Clark
Now that would be a race.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Then how did Halter get elected
To a statewide position with his liberal and union ties then?
[ Parent ]
halter
as l.t. he has no real power it just helped the Beebe ticket because Beebe is very conservative
[ Parent ]
Still
He would have power is something to Beebe like he steps down or dies in office.
[ Parent ]
So what?
It matters only if the Lieutenant Governor is elected separately (is s/he, in AR?). If he isn't, we all know that people rarely change their vote because of the VP- or Lieutenant Governor-designate.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Alright then everyone
If Halter is this big nothing a huge nobody then why are all of you here pegging him to a strong candidate for anything in AR is he's a nobody. I mean come on.
[ Parent ]
I don't know enough to peg him as anything
All I'm saying is, if he wasn't elected separately, it's a sound point that people may not have paid too much attention to his presence on the general election ballot.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I don't think he has ran against a quality candidate like boozman
b4. I mean, yes he is a liberal who can win in arkansas, but only if he is running in the right races versus the right candidate. Boozman is a solid candidate.  
[ Parent ]
He is
The guy's been a Congressmn for 10 years now. No I don't think he can beat Boozeman which is why I don't think he primary Lincoln and run for Snyder's seat instead.
[ Parent ]
Yes, they are.
That's why in 2002, Mike Huckabee got 53% of the vote in his re-election for Governor, while Winthrop Rockefeller won re-election to the Lt. Governorship with 60% of the vote.
[ Parent ]
Well to be fair
it was 2006, and no one really gives a fuck about who the Lieutenant Governor will be. They voted at the top of the ticket which is Beebe. Also a federal race in this environment is a lot different than Halters original run.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
ha
@hoosierdem, like you analyst opinion of the 06 Lt. Gov race in Arkansas!  So true, we get lost on the fact that its no spectical for a Dem to win in Ark, dout many even know who he is or that they even voted for Halter.
[ Parent ]
In AR, They Should Care
As in the 1990s two Arkansas Lt. Governors moved up to be governor. And of course Lt. Gov. Rockefeller might well have advanced in politics too, if he hadn't died.
[ Parent ]
Well, one way or the other, we'll hopefully be rid of her.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Easier than hold than AR-02
At least in my opinion and I think many in Arkansas would agree. Even though Berry's district is slightly more conservative than Snyder's, the historical roots are just as strongly democratic or perhaps more so. And unlike in AR-02, the announced Republican here doesn't have strong name recognition, national ties and a lot of money already raised.  
I agree on the historial basis of Berry's district
But I disagree on the candidate status of AR-2. Sure Tim Griffin has national status because he was Karl Rove's lackey in the US Attorney scandal and money. But I don't think he has strong name recgonition. Espically if yoyr going to compare to someone like Bill Halter.
[ Parent ]
I meant Griffin's name rec compared to Rick Crawford in AR-01
It's true Griffin isn't as well known as Halter.

I'll wait until we know the nominees are in both parties in both districts before I can say for sure which is an easier hold, but for now I'm going with AR-01.

[ Parent ]
I think that's a fair assessment
I think e got to wait a month to see what will happen. I say a month because by then we will know who's running and who's not.
[ Parent ]
Excellent Point
Its been many, many decades since this district was represented by a Republican (since the 1800s?), unlike Arkansas's other districts.  
[ Parent ]
I'm trying to be optimistic
However Arkansas is going to be a disaster for the Democrats.  The House delegation is going to switch from 3-1 to 1-3 and of course the Senate seat.
Outside of Lincoln
It won't be. Arkansas is no Tennessee and he have good benches in these districts to replace these guys.
[ Parent ]
The House delegation MIGHT switch from 3-1 to 1-3
And honestly, I'm not convinced that we're not better off running Democrats who can't be tied to the D.C. establishment. (Provided, of course, we can ultimately land quality candidates in place of our vulnerable incumbents).

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Interesting: Jennifer Duffy over at Cook who handicaps Senate Races says Lincoln may opt to retire
http://twitter.com/jenniferedu...

I'll hope Duffy is right.

We can only hope

[ Parent ]
We can only hope
For Wes Clark. He would at least make a race of it. Halter for AR-02 sounds like a better idea.
[ Parent ]
Nope Halter is a bad candidate
According to everyone here he was elected in '06 on Beebe's coattaile, doe nothing and is a nobody he would get crushed by a 6th tier candidate apparently.
[ Parent ]
true

[ Parent ]
That was sarcasm moron...
I still believe Halter is a strong candidate bcause of his position and name recgonition and that could lead to alot of money being raised as well.
[ Parent ]
Your the moron
everyone just needs to realize were fucked in Arkansas move on and focus on other states instead of wasting time and money
[ Parent ]
No your the moron
Who dosen't get that AR isn't as bad as the other southern states like TN or AL. The fact remains outside of the Presidential level, they dominate on everylevel and have good benches to succeed the two out going Congrssmen.
[ Parent ]
alright lets all just start banging our heads into a wall
I bet you've never even been 500 miles from arkansas besides flying over it from la to ny
[ Parent ]
No.
But to be honest i've been dying to go to Little Rock to visit the Bill Clinton Library and see the statehouse. But I don't need to visit the state to know the dynamics of it. I can easily do that by reading up on it. But so what because I don't live in your state I know jack about it. If that's true, 98 percent of the people in this thread shouldn't comment on this race cause none of them live in Arkansas.
[ Parent ]
anger
u cant understand Arkansans anger and disgust with the democrat agenda unless u are there and talk to them yourself I mean Lincoln has a 36% approval  
[ Parent ]
First off
It's DemocratIC agenda, you sound like a braindead Republican when you talk like that. Second, yeah Lincoln has a bad approval rating and that's why she's going to be beat and none of us gives a rats ass about it.
[ Parent ]
Troll
Elecwatcher is clearly a Republican Troll. All he's done this entire post is try and negate everything you've said. He clearly is either off his meds or rooting for Republicans. He cheered Beebe being a DINO. He's one of the "few conservative Democrats" left. That sounds like praise.
[ Parent ]
And why not?
Anyone writing here is obliged to be a "flaming progressive"? As far as i know - not so. For example - i am an Independent centrist, surely not a right-winger, but at the same time - not a "progressive" by any measure. And i admire a lot of relatively "conservative" (by present standards) Democrats like Henry and, yes, Beebe. So what? Does that mean i can't write here?
[ Parent ]
No, it doesn't
Republicans are welcome, too, as long as they concentrate on analysis (GOPvoter and InRepublican, for example, have posted interesting things and contributed constructively to our discussions). I believe in giving people latitude and not assuming the worst, but it's really up to the moderators how they decide to deal with everyone here.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Democratic agenda
The proper adjective for the noun Democrat is Democratic, so please use it.

Now, having said that, do you really think this is primarily about the things the Democrats have been trying to do, versus the things the Republicans did when they had control and want to do now? Do Arkansans really like the status quo in health insurance, for example, or is it more that many of them have been sold a bill of goods about "death panels" and the rest of the right-wing lies and, perhaps, shall we say, have a problem with the appearance of the Chief Executive?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
no
most of it isn't race based it has to do with health care that's is why Lincolns numbers are so bad regardless of how they were influenced into this position it is a reality.
[ Parent ]
No I think some of what Pan is saying is true
But yes her position on health care sucks and that another reason why she'll get the boot on healthcare and on one will care.  
[ Parent ]
Lincoln is one rare Democrat that I will not be sorry to see go.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Let me put it this way:
If Lincoln survives the primary, then may the home of Wal-Mart be K-Mart red on the Senate maps.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I don't get what you mean Unknown
When your talking about Wal-Msrt but regrdless she'll win the primary, but get crushed in the general that we can agree and know on.
[ Parent ]
Arkansas is the home of Wal-Mart
It's color seems to be blue.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
She's just the one rare dare Democrat?
What about Harry Reid? he's about a sack of shit as Lincoin and will get booted as well and trust me no one will miss him either.
[ Parent ]
I never said Lincoln was the one Dem I wouldn't be sorry to see go.
Reid is also one of those Democrats that I won't be sorry to see go either. I also bid Griffith good riddance when he switched, and will do the same to Boren should he do so too.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Boren is the worst out of the three
I love when he tries to obstruct or vote down good legislation then brags about it like he done something marvelous. Dems like that I won't make me break the kleenex if they get the boot.
[ Parent ]
So they like the Repubican agenda better?


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Consider this an extremely strong warning, Tim
While obviously your sparring partner's behavior was not acceptable here, neither was yours. It's been a long time since we've seen juvenile name-calling like this on SSP - this is really beyond the pale.

You also participated in an unhelpful derail with a now-banned user the other day, after previously getting a one-week timeout yourself for participating in a derail. This was not good behavior, either.

I also note that you've posted on 48 comments today alone, on a Sunday. We're not going to set arbitrary limits about how often someone can comment, but people should think before they post. In fact, I think most folks around here do think carefully before they start writing, which is why the comments are usually so great. But I don't think it's necessary to insist on commenting on every single issue, every time, every day.

Needless to say, there won't be another warning after this one.

[ Parent ]
Okay David...
I'm sorry for calling the guy a moron. Name calling is unacceptable and it is below me. I wasn't thinking peoperly when I said it and i'm sorry. But you want to ban me for what? Expressing my opinion. I didn't break any rules. I never posted wild comments regarding the banks or primarying the President. I just comment on why that's a bad idea. But never in those comments I called anyone names and such. Look I know i've been posting alot these past few days and been getting feisty with some of the other posters here but i'm just getting my point across that's all. I don't try to gloom and doom or derail threads. I'm just here to discuss politics with everyone here that's all. Sometimes I can get hot headed but if you read this weekend open thread I wrote a post commenting and apologizing for my behavior so I accept responability for my actions. But most of the time I do think before I post. I don't understand I just want to discuss politics and debate people here friendly for the post part and I get the hammer but Tekzilla posts gloom and doom posts here everyday and most likely without thinking but she dosen't get warned. It almost feels like i'm not wanted here at all. If that's the truth David i'll sign off and not come back because I won't stay somewhere i'm not wanted on Yes I thought before I typed that last nugget up.
[ Parent ]
I don't have the best record here either
But if I understand correctly, this

I'm just here to discuss politics with everyone here that's all.

is at the least, not a precise measure of what is allowed here.

If I understand correctly, all political discussion here has to relate in some way to electoral implications. So if there's an issue at question, it must be related to the election prospects of a candidate - a group of candidates - or a party.

There seems to be a higher standard w/r/t issues with an uncertain (more tangential?) relationship to electoral politics, e.g. the Senatorial fillibuster. In other words, if you want to talk about changing rules associated with the fillibuster, you'll have to talk specifics about how it affects electoral prospects of certain Senators.

As far as I can tell, discussions focused solely on Presidential electoral politics is discouraged (but not prohibited) - while related things like coattails, and implications for other candidates are encouraged.

Bonus points, in karmic terms, seem to be given for coverage of elections which are not well covered by other national media, e.g. state legislatures, major city mayors, etc.

Yet, there seems to be some leeway given for humor/snark, unusual issues, etc. Some leeway also appears to be given if a discussion is developing towards a deeper discussion of electoral implications.

[ Parent ]
My apologizes, I should of been more clearer
When I said politics I mean to discuss elections. Politics can mean many things it can man discussions about elections but also issues like healthcare and co, wich can only be talked about here when discussing a candidate or certain election. I mean to discuss elections and that's it. Sure I comment on other things like HCR and the flibuster but that's when someone else brings it up but sometimes I shouldn't comment on certain things like whrn someone brings up TARP or morality, that leads to a major derailing or a thread and possible suspension/ban if he continues. But in conclusion i'm just here to discuss elections like what were all here for. I shouldn't blast off on someone or call then stupid names (couple weeks ago a poster kept calling people who didn't agree with him a "Assmuffin). That's wrong and i'll try to not do that or derail threads. But if David and James or anyone else here think i'm a bother or if i'm not wanted here i'll leave. I don't want to make anyone's time on here hard whatever it's the posters or moderators.
[ Parent ]
This is a really excellent distillation
Of what we're about here.
[ Parent ]
I'm simply advising you
Not to engage in derails and not to engage in name-calling. If you can live with that, then you are more than welcome to participate here. Apologies are all well and good, but we aren't going to operate on the "easier to ask forgiveness than permission" school around here - we want people not to engage in that behavior in the first place.
[ Parent ]
Yeah I can live with that
I was wrong about calling that poster a moron and since I don't derail thread that won't be a problem but i'll try not to engage in anyone who does so whatever it's Smith regarding the banks or Ireland regarding primarying the President. But I disagree with you apologies do mean something. It shows that the person admits there wrong and wants forgiveness to avoid punishment. I did that on friday when I apologized for my outburst. It shows I mean no harm and i'm here to discuss elections. But I won't engage in rude behavior. That's not my style.
[ Parent ]
And I posted alot today
That shouldn't be a big deal. I have alot to say because it has to do with a Congressman from a swing district retiring and I got free time today so to make the best of it I like to debate and talk with some of the other members here. Yesturday I didn't comment at all, I was in North New Jersey attending a wrestling event. Look if i'm a bother to you and everyone else here i'll leave quietly. I don't want to make you and everyone else time hard by putting up with my posts and views. I dont mean to cause anyone here harm, i'm a good guy who likes politics that's all.
[ Parent ]
Moron?
Moron gets a warning? Seriously? Is this 3rd grade? Wow. I thought we grown ups could use words that are, I don't know, grown up?

If you can't deal with words like these please don't turn on TV, visit any HS, visit a DC Kindergarten (I work in DC reads and the language there is horrific). Also, please don't read restroom doors, listen to rap, or go to a sporting event.

[ Parent ]
you'RE both morons
because neither one of you can spell correctly.
[ Parent ]
No I can spell correctly
Problem is I type so fast sometimes when I post a comment that I mistype words by accident and don't realize it until the comment is posted. So I apologize on that one Andrew.
[ Parent ]
Use Firefox
It has a built-in spell-check feature which has saved me from a bunch of misspellings and typos.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I'll have to remember that for the future
Thanks for the suggestion Pan.
[ Parent ]
No need to apologize
Just snarking  :)
[ Parent ]
The Little Rock district is not statewide
Then again if Clark won't run then he is as good as there is outside Beebe if Lincoln calls it quits. At least he might get liberals to vote.
[ Parent ]
Very True
I can see Halter run over Clark because Halter is actually considering is while Clark hasn't really made a peep.
[ Parent ]
Clark needs to run for Senate
He's the only one who can beat Boozman besides Beebe.
[ Parent ]
Darlene Hooley was the shit
She retired from her swing Oregon seat in 2008 and said, 'I dont want to be a public servant my whole life.  Ive done my work, accomplished what Ive wanted to do and now I just want to go home and spend time with my family.  I decided to retire in 2008 rather than a later cycle because this one looks good for the Democrats and I want us to have the best chance at retaining this seat as possible.'

Hooley is a pro while Berry is a chump.  Oh terrifying, so you may have to actually campaign and you may actually lose.  I think this says a lot more about the type of politician there are, as I categorize them into two groups.  Those who seek to be politicians because they simply want to be politicians and be public servants, and then there are those who get involved for the greater cause of having a direct say in their government and representing their values.  These are not necessarily independent of one another and I think the example of Hooley vs Berry showcases both of those.  Hooley fought harder for her ideals and wanted to see them carried on, Berry wanted to be a politician and is done now that he has to work hard to keep his job.

Lame, weak, chump.

I think that's a bit strong Andrew
First off Darlene Hooley was a DINO who I wasn't sad to see leave while her predcessor (Kurt Schroder) is more liberal than she is. Second Marion Berry actually had a decent record for the type of district he represented and be sad to see leave office like fellow Rep Vic Snyder. I mean yeah I can see you being angry towards him for leaving while times aren't necessary good but to call him chump, I think that's strong. Bad timing maybe. Question, you call him a chump for retiring but do you feel the same towards the others that are retiring like John Tanner or Dennis Moore or is it just him?
[ Parent ]
It's a bit strong, but he has a good point
It's smart for anyone who's thinking of retiring to retire when their party is on the upswing. That is, it's good for the party. Retiring for fear of losing an election in a tough cycle is selfish, in the sense that, with some exceptions (I'm looking at you, Senator Dodd and Governor Ritter), it's harder to defeat incumbents than to win open seats. So whereas the politician who retires in a tough cycle may have maximized the amount of time s/he can stay in office (which is good for him/her individually), their retirement is bad for the party.

And what's scary is how close we are already to the 20 who retired in 1994, with some time and probably (I'm guessing) more retirements to come. That, when the party is facing a headwind, is very bad (again, with a few exceptions, which I would love it if they included Senators Reid and probably, still, Lincoln, regardless of who her opponent is).

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Oh I dont think he's wrong
Andrew just came off a bit strong but makes a good point. These guys should be looking out for their party and by retiring in a cycle that's againist us that's looking out for yourself a bit. As for more retirement, I don't think you'll see that much since for days we figured through his dialogue that Berry was going to hang it up. As for the retirements so far, the good news is I think we can hold most of them with the right candidate and if they run a good campaign agsinist the GOP but there are seats you can kiss goodbye such as the seats of Bart Gordon, Dennis Moore, Charlie Melancon and possibly Joe Sestak. But hey the good news atleast is come 2011 we won't have to see Harry Reid or Blanche Lincoln anymore. Bad news is the Dems that are gone for the most part are good guys that stuck their necks out for the party like Tom Perriello. Oh well good lawmaker, wrong district that's all you can say about that one.
[ Parent ]
I don't consider it good news for any Democrat to be defeated by a Republican
unless that Democrat is corrupt to the level of someone like Congressman Jefferson or otherwise guilty of something intolerable (such as if someone convicted of rape or assault ran for reelection).

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
True
But your saying you won't make ax exception for Reid and Lincoln?
[ Parent ]
Certainly not!
That's a loss of two votes. For what?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Sestak (open)
If Sestak (open) is a loss, I'd tend to think that would be very bad and indicate a bad night at the polls.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Well PA-7 does have a Dem lean
Don't forget that and we got a excellent candidate in State Rep. Bryan Lentz the reason why I label this a toss up is because ex-U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan is running.  
[ Parent ]
And Im glad you brought up Moore
If he had been thinking of retiring soon, he shouldve done so in 2008 when we had Obama winning the district 51-48 instead of 2010 when we are going to get walloped.  I wont call him a chump, though.  He always is facing a tough re-election so I doubt he retired out of fear of losing.  But I mean, come on, take one for the team and retire in 2012 if you want out.

That's where my real beef is coming in with this election cycle.  The Democrats are TERRIBLE at playing like a team, our politicians do purity votes, our liberal constituents throw their vote away to the Green Party and independent candidates, the Blue Dogs wont figure out that they are members of the liberal oriented party and politicians like Stupak poison our bills and cant just take one for the team and STFU.

Im just having a very hard time figuring out where a politician needs to balance being a politician and representing their district's, and where a politicians needs to think beyond their district and look at the whole picture of governing America.  Because right now all I see are the Democrats doing the representative part of their job with absolutely no over-arching party and governing goals to maintain this majority.

[ Parent ]
I think you've got it backwards.
Hooley was a New Dem who voted against the Iraq War.  A DINO?  Hardly.  Her successor (not predecessor) Kurt Schrader has joined the Blue Dogs and has been given an intolerable rating, the lowest possible, from Progressive Punch for his votes, with a score of 53.03% on the crucial votes.
[ Parent ]
OR-05 is a wingnut friendly high-tech rich suburban rural district
a strange mix which makes life difficult for any D who represents the area. Anyone who expects an OR-05 rep to be like Earl Blumenauer (OR-03, mostly city of Portland) - well, is demanding that rep commit political suicide.

Both Hooley and Schrader are decent Ds who are true to their roots - Hooley in the West Linn suburbs, Schrader in the rural part of the district.

[ Parent ]
elecwatcher ....
every one of your posts in this thread is spot-on.  

If I were a betting man, I would bet that the Senate seat goes R, and the House delegation goes from 3D-1R to 1D-3R or 0D-4R.

Arkansas is doing now, what Oklahoma did years ago. That is evolving from Red at Presidential level and Blue at the House/Senate level, to Red at both levels.

Arkansas is late to the party, but it is doing the same thing every other Deep South state has already done. The Clintons and the Pryors being the primary difference.

Winning a down-ballot state office as a Democrat is not the same as winning a federal office in a GOP wave election.  

Southern House seats that have been D since the end of Reconstruction, can, do and WILL FLIP  to red.  SC-3 is a prior example, and SC-5 will be when Spratt retires or runs out of luck.

Wesley Clark is the ONLY shot for Arkansas to hold either the Senate seat or a house seat (assuming Beebe is out, which is the case).  And even that is uphill.  Hopefully he runs for Senate, which makes the most sense for him and the party. Even if he does lose, at least it would be competitive and force the GOP to spend some dough.      

McDaniel Not Running
http://www.arkansasonline.com/...

"One potential candidate suggested he will not pursue the seat. In a statement in which he praised Berry as an outstanding leader and a "valued mentor and inspiration," Arkansas Attorney General Dustin McDaniel reiterated his intention to seek reelection to his current office."

Arrogance
Here's another interesting tidbit. Apparently Obama thinks there won't be a 1994 because he's so popular:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Getting the centrists and Conservative Democrats in tough situations will really help the party. There are not enough liberal districts in the country for there to be a majority without the Blue Dogs and other centrists. There's this thing in politics called a coalition. It's a concept that the Republicans have no grasp of, but neither does the White House.

Oh, wait, Obama's popularity will allow us to keep the majority!

To be fair
We don't know when he actually said that.
[ Parent ]
If that is true or close to the truth
then Obama and his administration is tone-deaf.  Sure 1994 was 1994, but the skepticism of government is still there.  Obama may be popular, but he's not going to be real popular in districts where most Blue Dogs represent.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
That's exactly what i told a 1000 times
both here and on dKos: if you can't get all that you want (and you can't because you can't elect 218 "sterling liberals" to House and 51 - to Senate, and, in turn, you can't do that because there is not enough districts, which are able to elect these "sterlibg liberals" (180-190 maxomum according to my count), and there are not enough liberal districts because there is not enough (and will not be in the near future with only 20% of people calling themselves "liberals" against 40% calling themselves a "conservatives") liberals in the country and so on) - then you have to build coalitions and compromise. And, as usual in every coalition, you don't get 100% of what you want - you give up something to get something.. And so on. But for left-liberals exist (or at least so it seems) only "all or nothing": either do what they want (and 100% of that) or "be damned". So is it any surprise that they frequently get nothing? Even when they are right - they usually "bitch" insted of convincing those who have doubts, and frequently "glue" labels ("bigot", "teabagger"...) exactly where they must use arguments of logic. You don't get satisfactory results this way....
[ Parent ]
AR-01: Marion Berry Will Retire | 219 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox