Is Jensen teasing they've already polled

Or just guessing? I can believe the Reid numbers - nobody seems to like him. But Blanche Lincoln actually behind?

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 13:14:23 PM CDT

Just guessing is my bet

I've yet to see any evidence that Lincoln is vulnerable to anyone but maybe Huckabee.

I imagine CO may be a little dicey.

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by: corran horn @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 17:37:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Internal polls this

early generally tend to be skewed however, I do not doubt that Reid is in trouble. I think that Reid's best bet would be to go on a listening tour in Nevada during the recess and try to show his constituents what he has done as majority leader in the senate over the last 3 years. He needs to do what McConnell did last year in Kentucky by going through all the perks that Nevada gets as results of Reid's seniority and power in the senate.

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by: jmartin4s @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 13:24:23 PM CDT

Reid

I don't think anyone would be sorry to see Reid go.The most weak Floor leader.And we thought Daschle was weak.
However Republicans need someone to run against him.

Upside to him losing would be Dick Durbin as majority
Leader.

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by: Robbins @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 13:28:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sorry to see a Republican win

That's more to the point. Reid has been a very ineffective Majority Leader, but it would be very damaging for his seat to be won by a Republican, both because of how the Republican would vote and because whatever we think of Reid's performance, defeating a sitting Majority Leader or Speaker of the House gives the losing party a very big black eye.

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by: Pan @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 13:32:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If Reid lost, Ensigns chances for reelection are probably a little weaker

I know in 2000 when the seat Ensign now holds became vacated the casino industry backed him, seeing the advantages to having both Senators from opposite parties.  They may pull that again in 2012 especially if Ensign's popularity doesn't return.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."- Andrew Jackson

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by: Darth Jeff @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 13:32:23 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Majority leader Reid is the best thing Republicans have going

Imagine if the Dems had a McConnell leading the majority.  After seeing what McConnell was able to do with a tiny majority (and what Frist the asshat was able to do for that matter), what Reid has shown over the past 3+ years is that he doesn't do a good job running the show, notwithstanding his frequently referenced history as a boxer.

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by: Ajax the Greater @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 13:33:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'll take Schumer

He seems to have the will and tenacity to fight the Republicans over everything, not bow down like Reid does.

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by: ehstronghold @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 13:59:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Majority Leader

There are several Democrats who would be better as Majority Leader. Dick Durbin has been mentioned a lot, too. But while I don't understand why Democratic senators voted to reelect Reid as Majority Leader, make no mistake about it: For him to actually lose an election to a Republican would be very damaging.

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by: Pan @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 14:01:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Indeed

Particularly in Nevada which is supposedly trending Dem.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 14:11:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Another vote for Schumer

Whoever it is it simply MUST be from a state leaning heavily Democratic.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 14:13:12 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Reid

Yep, but at the same time Reid has that are ability to both cave in to Republicans but also be seen as a nasty, divisive politician. I dont think hes that nasty these days, with Obama in office but boy he sure did launch the personal attacks during the Bush admin. But in the last couple or few years of Bush's term Bush was so hated that i think many just stopped caring about personal attacks against him LOL. But still people just generally dont like to see that in politics, even against someone they dislike.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 19:42:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I have to think that there'd

be some people opposed to having both the President and the Senate Majority Leader from Illinois, which might help Schumer.

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by: SC @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 14:30:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

He also probably has the votes

14 Senators came in under his leadership of the DSCC.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 14:44:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Durbin

Durbin seems happy in his behind-the-scenes post, anyway.  I think that he'd be fine with staying a Whip--particularly considering that he and Schumer are good friends.

Mad At Thad:  A Blog Devoted To Ousting Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, Republican - Michigan

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by: Sean Fitzpatrick @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 15:00:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Aren't they room mates?

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by: trowaman @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 15:45:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yeah, they are

Which would've probably made it interesting to see how their home lives went during the presidential primaries last year ;)

Visit Election Inspection for first-rate political analysis.

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by: DGM @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 19:16:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hopefully, someone other than Rory Reid can

step up to run for Governor.  Having both on the ballot in 2010 could add to the anti-Reid sentiment that is already out there.

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by: DCal @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 13:52:53 PM CDT

Wish our side would run a credible primary opponent vs. Reid

If he's going to lose, let it be in a primary. I mean, that state went overwhelmingly blue last year -- the grassroots energy exists to upset Reid in a primary.  

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by: Ron @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 14:59:41 PM CDT

I support a primary challenge

Someone should talk Shelley Berkley into challenging Reid.

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by: duffman @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 16:14:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not viable with his fundraising

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 16:16:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It would take more courage than most members of Congress have

Although I wouldn't be surprised if most Nevada Democrats are frustrated that Obama's agenda isn't getting through because a weak Senate Majority Leader.

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by: duffman @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 19:16:02 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

There's one thing I'll say I admire about Reid:

For a politician that nobody seems to particularly like, he's had an amazingly successful career.

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by: SC @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 15:07:32 PM CDT

Nothing good can come from Reid losing

If Reid goes down, several other Dems will lose their seats too. So yeah, the would be a new majority leader but he'd have 50-54 seats and still have to deal with guys like Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman.

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by: panhandler @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 15:34:47 PM CDT

That doesn't follow

The fact that people in nevada don't like Reid doesn't say anything about coattails in the rest of the country.

2010 should be a great year for Team Blue and the Senate, but the problems are some lame incumbents who (like Govs Patterson and Corzine) should get the way because they are so unpopular.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

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by: tommypaine @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 17:40:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Great?

We have to defend Colorado, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Nevada now apparently, and possibly Arkansas. This is not shaping up to be a great year.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 17:52:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Come on now

How competitive is Illinois, in real terms? And Pennsylvania's only competitive to the extent that we assume Pat Toomey to be a viable statewide candidate, which will probably only be the case if 2010 shapes up as an all out cataclysm for the Democrats. The GOP has yet to land real, credible challengers in either of the much touted races in Nevada or Arkansas, and in royal blue Connecticut there's a very distinct chance our damaged-goods incumbent won't even be on the ballot - and if he were, he'd still be able to fall back on decades of seniority and a fundamentally Democratic electorate. Colorado seems, so far, the only place we are on truly shaky ground - and even there, once again, the GOP has yet to coalesce around a single half-way decent recruit.

In the meantime, they're defending open seats in New Hampshire, Ohio, Missouri, and Kentucky - all of which feature top flight recruits on our side - and have to shore up the deeply milquetoast Richard Burr against one of the many quality candidates we have to pick from our deep bench in North Carolina. This is to say nothing of the potential threat posed by Charlie Melancon against Diaper David in Louisiana, or the possibility of right wing activists managing somehow to derail the Crist express in Florida.

At best, we can gain a lot of ground, at worst, we'll probably be able to count the losses on one hand. Realistically, from where we stand right now, I'd say we more or less break even. There's a serious need to tamp down the rampant doomsaying.  

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by: JFM110 @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 18:51:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oh come one

Even mentioning Illinois, at this point, is silly.

Nevada has a lame incumbent, who might lose but no one that can possibly beat him is running against him yet.

Colorado has a weak incumbent because of a lousy appointment.  It could be competitive, but any argument that we aren't favored is not reasonable.

The Pennsylvania incumbent is lame, but he has a primary opponent, and either one will beat the Republican easily (assuming no scandals of course).

Connecticut has a weak incumbent who should choose not to run, but if he does, it'll be a tossup.

Arkansas isn't something to be concerned about for at least six months.  They have to get a coherent candidate first.

In contrast Missouri, Kentucky, New hampshire, Ohio and North Carolina, are ALL more likely to flip our way than any of these blue seats going the other way.

Yes, we have some seats that we could lose, but hells bells, we should lose some seats sometimes... especially when we run weak candidates.

So, about a dozen seats are in play in 2010.  We'll win some and lose some, but are there any people out there that would bet a lot that the Republicans will NET seats in 2010?  Team Blue should net up seats, even if we lose Dodd and/or Reid.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

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by: tommypaine @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 20:42:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Some lame incumbents?

Try several lame incumbents. Check out the approval ratings for our incumbent Senators and Governors who are up for election in 2010.  

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by: panhandler @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 18:25:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

In this environment, nearly every incumbent is a "lame" incumbent

We just have the mixed fortune of having more incumbents to defend.

Let's wait and see what the approval ratings are like this time next your before we start panicking.

---

by: JFM110 @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 18:55:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Thank You!!!

Over the past couple of months, people have been getting really itchy, especially over gubernatorial races (and a few Senate races).  

If we do lose a few governor's mansions, and that's likely, it's not because we're failing, it's simply because we're in the lead, have therefore more people to defend, and nobody likes their governor anymore.  

As for the Senate, yeah, Corzine looks in trouble, but I truly wouldn't be surprised to see him pull this one out.  And, as for Dodd, I'm simply not buying a loss once campaigning begins.  Folks don't know how un-moderate Simmons actually is, and Connecticut is too blue for a loss, even with Dodd on the ballot.  He'd have to ABCSCAM, Rostenkowski, or something of that magnitude to be taken down.  And, if he can shepherd through the Senate HELP version of the healthcare bill largely intact, I do believe he's fine.  Colorado is the worry, but Bennet hasn't been horrible...just an uninspiring too moderate backbencher, to say the least.  But I'm not buying Tom Wiens, DA Buck, or most of the others as the GOP answer.

---

by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Wed Aug 12, 2009 at 12:15:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Corzines a Gov

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Aug 12, 2009 at 19:36:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

er

Next year.

---

by: JFM110 @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 18:56:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Really?

Aside from Reid, Dodd, and maybe Bennet, I don't see any other incumbents losing.

Reid's problems are of his own making. They have little bearing on how other Dems will perform.

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by: corran horn @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 17:42:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ross Miller for Governor

I'd like to see Ross Miller run for governor

---

by: jmartin4s @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 16:40:44 PM CDT

He might

After all, his dad Bob was governor from 1989-1998.

---

by: corran horn @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 16:48:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

My bet: Lowden doesn't bite

If Heller declines in the face of an internal showing him ahead by 9, why would Bowden run if she's leading by less.

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by: corran horn @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 16:50:04 PM CDT

Losing leaders

Democrats lost Senate Majority Leader Scott Lucas in 1950 to up-and-comer Everett Dirksen and two years later lost a second floor leader in Ernest McFarland to Barry Goldwater.  MCFarland got replaced by a guy named Lyndon Johnson and that was the end of the merry-go-round.

If Reid were a better leader, this would not be possible.  His best showing was in the minority and was certainly not equal to McConnell.  He needs to be pushing the proto-Blue Dogs around and not vice-versa.  Johnson would not have let Max Baucus pull his crap of letting Republicans in on deal-making and keepoing Democrats out.  Not never, not no how.

I don't know if 2 in a row is a record but it is pretty bad.  

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by: David Kowalski @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 17:08:14 PM CDT

When your in the minority

party unity is very important since the majority party will most likely split into ideological lines. Also an LBJ is pretty rare these days...

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by: ehstronghold @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 19:27:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Heller

I dont get Heller. The glory of defeating a Senate Majority Leader should be too tempting. Yeah hed have to give up his House seat to run but its not like hes up there in seniority or has that much political clout (alot because the GOP is being dominated in the House) perhaps besides on local issues and its not like hes safe in his own re-elections. Perhaps it sounds a little contradictory for a vulnerable congressman in a red district to want to take on a powerful Senator. But Reid is no ordinary powerful Senator...hes a very unpopular powerful Senator. If it turns out that some no-name state senator or businessman ends up beating Reid Heller will be kicking himself for the rest of his life.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 19:27:17 PM CDT

Reid

is an expert at winning reelection. He lost his first senate race by a few hundred votes and managed to hold off John Ensign by a couple hundred votes in 1998.

Also John Thune was a special case. Tim Johnson just barely edged him out by 507 votes in 2002. Thune was out of a job and since almost won in 2002, he had nothing to lose by running against Daschle in 2004.  

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by: ehstronghold @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 19:33:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

State party chairs

I generally dont think its a good idea for state party chairs in swing states/districts to run for office. Unless theyre just merely ex-state party chairs who are currently doing something else (in public or private life). Because theyre seen as very partisan. And they have to be hyper partisan...its their job. But the voters still wont like it.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Aug 11, 2009 at 19:31:54 PM CDT