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TX-10: McCaul Drops AG Hopes, Will Seek Re-Election

by: DavidNYC

Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 6:36 PM EDT


Somewhat sucky news:

Less than three months after saying he would consider a run next year for attorney general of Texas, third-term U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Austin, told the American-Statesman's Danny Yadron on Wednesday that the AG option is no longer on his plate.

Asked if he was still mulling a run for attorney general, McCaul replied: "No, I'm running for re-election."

This confirms an earlier statement from a McCaul spokesman. While it would have been nice to have an open seat here, Democrats fortunately have a good candidate in Jack McDonald, who has already raised over $300K and previously said he'd run no matter what McCaul decided. Indeed, the DCCC has already targeted McCaul, firing off a few radio ads over his vote against the stimulus.

And according to SSP's analysis of the presidential vote, Barack Obama improved nicely over John Kerry's numbers - McCain won the district 55-44, versus Bush's 62-38 pounding. In a separate analysis of Texas demographics, Crisitunity observed that the 10th CD had the largest raw increase in Hispanic population from 2000 to 2006 of any district in the Houston or Dallas areas. That trend has doubtless continued, putting the GOP on ever-thinner ice.

McCaul, meanwhile, is far from entrenched - he won his last two elections with just 55% and 54% of the vote, running against underfunded opponents both times. I think this is going to be an interesting race.

DavidNYC :: TX-10: McCaul Drops AG Hopes, Will Seek Re-Election
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The trick is Harris County
I said this before, but if anyone can tell me or anyone how to increase the democratic performance in the district above 33% in Harris county, congrats, you have won the race.

This is Katy, TX. Land of elite shopping malls and concrete parking lots that stretch on for miles over very flat land

Get to work number crunchers and strategists. I want to know how.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


Some ideas
I think you have to play the turnout game:

1)Hope Houston mayor Bill White is our Senate candidate-he seems to be wildly popular as Mayor and his presence on the ballot could have some coattails.
2)Conversely, having Rick Perry on the ballot for Governor could only serve to depress turnout by moderate Rs.
2a)Having a solid Dem Gov. candidate would help too. Its entirely, possible that in a straight up one on one, Chris Bell could have beaten Perry.


[ Parent ]
Empty kitty
McCaul is sitting on just $62,431.  That's the lowest total of any Texas Republican incumbent in one of the toughest districts.  This time he may be outfunded.  And a non-Presidential year is probably another bonus for a Texas Democrat.

Eighty nine Republican incumbents were reported on the SEC site today and McCaul is one of the most hurting.  That's 141 so far (mostly complete).

Among those looking in sad shape: Mark Souder, IN-3, $27,807; Tom Latham, IA-4, $113,993; Joe Cao, LA-2, $60,526; Fleming, LA-4, $51,619; Lee Terry, ME-2, $95,495; Patrick McHenry, NC-10, $64,936; John McHugh, NY-23, $169,788; Jim Gerlach, PA-6, $124,289; Joe Wilson, SC-2, $57,775; Wittman, VA-1, $$37.949; Wolf, VA-10,$40,238.  Wplf will be 70 and he is off two relatively hard and expensive races against Judy Feder.  It screams retirement to me.  McHenry has raised a lot of money but spread it around to buy influence.  He's abrasive and scandal ridden.

That's a lot of low hanging fruit.


Jim Gerlach - He's probably fundraising for a potential governor race
I can understand why he'd report such poor federal numbers.  

[ Parent ]
He's never outfunded
McCaul is a self funder, former CEO of Clear Channel radio. Most of his debt is too himself.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Clear Channel, ugh
They have ruined rock radio. Rock 101 KLOL was one of the only classic rock stations in Houston (and use to be very popular) until Clear Channel, I believe it was, pulled the plug on it for something else. Tradition doesnt matter to them, only the bottom line.

[ Parent ]
Musicians against Mike McCaul!
I ain't much of a rock fan myself, but I'll sure chip in my support for such an organization!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Very true
Clear Channel is the clear line of what is wrong with radio today. I have since stopped tuning into Mix and The Buzz (or Edge if I'm in Dallas) in exchange for the Cumulus Jack stations.

I miss Rock 101 as well. At least the Eagle came back in Dallas after Clear Channel shut it down.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
How many of those are campaign-drained
and how many of those are low due to laziness, and how many due to other factors?

(See, there's usefulness in challenging R's even when their D opponents aren't too much different from them--forces them not to be as wingnuttily crazy, for starters, because their feet are held to the fire during re-election cycles, and prevents them from entrenching themselves, forcing the R's to play more defensively, and thus helping D reps entrench themselves indirectly.)

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]

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