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DE-Sen, DE-AL: Harold & Kumar Go to Mike Castle

by: James L.

Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 10:56 AM EDT


Politico:

Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) will be running for Vice President Joe Biden's old Senate seat in Delaware, according to two GOP sources connected to the congressman, instantly giving Republicans the opportunity to flip a traditionally-Democratic seat in their column.

Castle will be making a formal announcement at noon in his hometown of Wilmington. Castle had been debating whether to run for higher office, or retire after serving nine terms in the House.

I'm honestly surprised that Castle, who's getting long in the tooth, agreed to fight for this four-year term. I'm also not used to Republicans actually having so much honest-to-God success in the recruiting department, but the NRSC has been on an absolute tear this year. Castle will be a formidable candidate for the GOP here; in all three polls that we've seen of this state in the past year, Castle has edged Democratic AG Beau Biden by anywhere from 5 to 21 points. That, combined with Castle's long statewide electoral track record, is enough for us to change our rating of this race from Safe D (RTW) to Tossup.

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DE-Sen, DE-AL: Harold & Kumar Go to Mike Castle | 150 comments
Remember earlier in the year
when we were sure Democrats would pick up more Senate seats next year.

...yeah, so much for that.

Still do
I'm looking at 63-64 seats...I had been looking at 66-67, though.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
I'd suspect
The NRCC is less than pleased.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
The NRCC surely wrote him off long ago, so no impact now......
Castle publicly said a long time ago that he was unlikely to run for reelection, so the NRCC knew it had to recruit someone knew way back then.  And I'm sure they've quietly been doing just that.  The only question regarding Castle was Senate race or hang it up, and that was neither here nor there for the NRCC.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
*&%$^%%#^&(*&^(*&%&*%$*&^%(^(&*^(*&)*&(
That was my reaction to this news.  UGH!!!!!!  First off this probably means a loss, and if it doesn't it still menas republicans have expanded the playing field into at least 7 of our races
NV
CT
CO
DE
AR
IL
PA

and we are only playing in a couple of republican races
MO
OH
NH
KY
TX
NC
LA

But the ones we are playing with such as NH KY TX and LA seem to be long shots or not quite good enoughs.  Whereas republicans look poised to take a couple of ours.  SHIT!!!  GRRR  This really sucks.  Then we have to defend our 2006 and 2008 gain after this cycle... we needed to pick up seats this cycle to insolate us for next couple of cycles.

rightwing Rasmussen has KY tied
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

in terms of your list above (a good one btw), I would take our 7 over their 7 any day of the week in terms of holds and pick-ups vs. losses.

[ Parent ]
Take heart
Our four lame incumbents notwithstanding, Democrats have done a great job in lining up quality candidates of their own. Biden, Giannoulias, Specter, Mongiardo/Conway, Fisher/Brunner, Marshall and Carnahan are all known quantities with proven statewide electoral success. Sestak, Hodes, and Melancon are all highly visible congressmen who have all turned red seats blue in the last five years, and have had little trouble holding their traditionally Republican (at least federally, in the case of LA-03) territory. Will all this be enough in a negative environment? Maybe, maybe not, but I'm damn certain that everyone on our bench has what it takes to give their GOP opponents - however equally stellar they may be - a hell of a race.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Addendum
I suppose Specter also straddles the "lame incumbent" category... still can't quite manage to come to terms with that, even all these months later.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Melancon
I would actually say that Melancon's district, in the heart of Cajun country, leans Dem in competitive federal elections. Meaning if a Dem has any chance to win statewide in LA then theyve got to win his district. Just my guess anyway. As its among the more Democratic areas (albeit conservative) of LA.  
[ Parent ]
Meant to say...
As its among the more Democratic areas (albeit conservative) of LA in registration
[ Parent ]
Lest people forget
we actually took that district from the GOP in 2004, despite the overall pro-GOP climate of that year.  It's very winnable by a Democrat of Melancon's type.
[ Parent ]
No coattails
That race was held in December. That was back when the LA open primary was held on the general election day, and if no candidate recieved over 50%, it went to a December run-off, there were no Bush coattails to be rode.
[ Parent ]
And the previous incumbent
who retired from that seat was originally a Democrat but switched, like Goode in VA-05.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
And the Republican candidate
Billy Tauzin IV or whatever, was really unqualified for the seat.
[ Parent ]
Still a pretty evenly matched year
7 vs. 7.  And I really don't see Republicans actually winning states like PA or IL, while I could see us taking down Vitter and Burr.

My early predictions of another six-seat gain in 2010 might have been overly optimistic, but I'd still bet that we'll have a net gain of seats next year.

[ Parent ]
Still think Biden will win
So long as he doesn't bottle it. I mean Castle voted against the stimulus for goodness sake. But a bummer because this now takes alot of resources to defend.
[ Parent ]
I would say I'm really worried
About 3 of our defenses. Reid in Nevada, Blanche in AR and Bennet/Romanoff in CO. I'm not that worried about the others. As long as Specter/Sestak don't completely ravage each other they should be able to beat Toomey. I think the closer we get to election day the more partisan CT voters will become which should propel Dodd to victory. Same thought process with Delaware and Illinois.
[ Parent ]
Too early to worry, and the GOP likely is peaking too soon......
Look at the big picture, it's asking a lot if you're a Republican for the current environment to hold firm for another year.  That's just not likely to happen when you consider what's driving voter anxiety right now.  They're worried about an economy that will be better next summer than today, and they're worried about health care reform that will be long since enacted by the time voters start paying serious attention to the midterms.  Voters right now are driven by fear that is highly likely to subside over the next year.  The timing of events is horrible for the GOP.

Realistically, for the GOP to have such a good environment next year, they need new issues to drive voters away from Democrats.  That can happen, but it's not very forseeable right now.  Democrats would have to push controversial stuff next year that they're unlikely to do in an election year, or there would have to be a foreign policy blowup or a terrorist attack.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I think those
3 races have issues that I don't see going away. I look at the incumbents we've knocked off the last 2 cycles and I see similarities in some of these races. With Reid, I see some similarities to John Sununu because he's just so unpopular, having said that the GOP doesn't have a candidate of Shaheen's caliber. With Arkansas I see similarities to Rhode Island and Oregon where the incumbent has no true sin, but the state has just moved away from them. With Colorado, I see some similarities to Missouri where no one seems to have strong views of the incumbent.
[ Parent ]
Merely enacting "health care reform" is not enough
Unless people experience real positive changes before the election - and not only starting in 2013 - they are unlikely to be happy about so-called "reform."

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
There's a difference between being happy and indifferent
At this point, it'll be a plus to just get the issue off the table so that people aren't so riled up about it.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Economy
Agreed. And about the economy my opinion is Bush messed up the economy so bad that it may take more than just 2 years to see any real change. Not necessarily because Obama isnt doing the right things. He inherited a very bad economy. Heck, its been bad for much longer than most economists say, it was bad for really almost all of Bush's term even if it wasnt an actual recession for most of it. And whether its fair or not, by early next year or so, the voters will stop just blaming Bush for any economic woes and start to blame the current administration too. But, if Obama does make real progress on the economy, then he and the Dems will get credit for it. As they should.  
[ Parent ]
NH is a toss-up with it leaning our way
fuck the polls, they hardly reflect what the NH electorate will be thinking a year from now.

Ayotte is a complete unknown when it comes to her politics while Hodes is in the House dealing with healthcare.  Sounds reasonable why she's polling ahead.

God I want to fucking slap Lynch for ever appointing her.

[ Parent ]
Looking at the races individually, by themselves...
The GOP wont have much of a net gain, IMO. I can definitely see NV, CT, CO, DE and AR flipping but Dems probably have a good edge in IL and PA. But for different reasons in PA and IL. In PA the GOP has the wrong candidate in an otherwise competitive state and probably against a weak nominee (Specter). In IL the GOP has the right candidate (although hes tacking to the right), who isnt assured of the nomination, and in a very Democratic state and against a popular Dem nominee. Not to mention its Obama's seat. Still, the GOP has a shot in both of those.

As for the GOP's seats I would say, as of right now, they should take over MO and OH purely because of who the Republicans will nominate. Blunt and Portman are seriously weak nominees, fundraising ability aside. Especially Portman who not only is a free trader (I would assume, anyway) but is known as 'Bush's trade guy'. Also, the Dems have a good shot at winning NH and KY. Still, I predict the GOP will make a little bit of gains.  

[ Parent ]
Bright side
Well on the bright side the Dems can pick up the DL at large House seat with former LG Carney at the helm.
Not surprised
I was getting the heeby-jeebies from all the pre-mature, Castle-ain't-runnin'-for-jack-next-cycle sentiments that were going around here, and had internally come to the conclusion that the GOP's recruiting successes have been self-perpetuating to the point that even reluctant pols like Castle are finding 2010 to be as prime an opportunity as ever to move up in their careers.

Ergo, rather than slamming my head into a wall, I look at the glass half-full: we're almost certainly picking up DE-AL now.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

I'd rather have the Senate seat
our agenda usually passes the House easily, then dies in the Senate.

[ Parent ]
wait until CfG and the rightwing freakshow gets a hold
of Castle.  it will be like what they did to Gilchrest in Maryland, only with bigger stakes.

and the Rubio vs. Crist thing in Florida and Grayson vs. Paul in KY will ensure that whoever emerges will be bloody and without cash or complete base support in the general.

[ Parent ]
I still think there's an off chance
Rubio could beat Crist in Florida, or bloody him up enough, that Meek has a chance to win.
[ Parent ]
i think Rubio pulls it out and Meek has less than a 50/50 shot
Crist has a ton of cash, but 2010 will be a last gasp attempt by Rush and Beck and RedState to prove they are still relevant before the Publicans recognize on a national level that appealing to a rabid base to win elections is a loser's strategy when their base is shrinking daily.
[ Parent ]
I think Meek will lose handily...
...to either Crist or Rubio. He probably has an equal shot against either. Crist will bring in the independents and cross-over Dems, but Rubio will excite the base.  
[ Parent ]
Our base could be excited
there really should be at least one single African-American in the Senate.  And once Feinstein retires, Sanchez could be holding it down for the Latino community.  (Yeah Sanchez is a blue Dog but she doesnt vote like one and wouldnt be any worse than Feinstein.)
[ Parent ]
I take it you're talking about Loretta Sanchez
And not her more liberal sister Linda (who represents CA-39)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Good point
I'd ask if there's any bench for the rightists in DE, but as KY-Sen has shown they can just recruit some random guy and it can work.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Rand Paul is not "some random guy"
And his challenge to Grayson, who is extremely conservative, is not from the right.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
Castle won't have a primary fight at all......
The Delaware GOP couldn't be weaker.  Conservatives there can't be happy, but they know they're too few to win and have to settle for someone like Castle.  And after all, he did vote "no" on the stimulus and I bet he votes no on health care.

I have more hope for Rubio in FL-Sen given today's fundraising report, but still not much.  That money still isn't that good a haul in a state as big and expensive as Florida.  I don't think Rubio can come close to actually winning unless momentum moves his way bigtime.  Those county-level straw polls aren't worth a damn.

Rand Paul is more interesting simply because he's polling surprisingly well, but ultimately I think Grayson beats him back without too much trouble.  As long as we nominate Conway there, I feel good it will go down to the wire.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Althogh
DE AL is nowhere near as important as DE Senate A/B but at least he is 71 so he won't hold it long.
[ Parent ]
he'd be renting the seat until 2014
when Biden can win it.
[ Parent ]
He could be there 20 years.
If he wanted to retire, this would be a good time.  Castle, like many others, appears he can't imagine life without being in public office.  

If he wins the seat in 2010 he could be there for 3-4 terms.

[ Parent ]
So it wasn't Monday...
...but I was still dead wrong. I just didn't think that Castle had it in him. In fact, I still don't. I wanna see how he campaigns before I get overly concerned. Delawareans won't just hand Castle the Senate seat. On the other hand, they won't just hand one to Beau, either. Now the seat must be fought over, which is probably how it should be.
Agree
I kind of want Biden to have to face a top tier challenger and earn that seat.  I just dont want to A. lose the seat B. have such a good challenger that Biden will lose and/or C. have such a good challenger Biden wont even run.
[ Parent ]
Surprising
and not good.
Truly bizarre.
I'm not convinced Politico isn't jumping the gun here, that the vague "highly placed GOP sources" aren't either speculating or flat out lying, or both. Castle has shown NO signs to date of actually wanting this, and plenty of signs to the contrary, from lackluster fundraising to his age and health problems to the "Florida beaches" comment. Until an actual announcement is made by Castle himself, color me extremely skeptical.

...Unless, of course, he knows something that we don't, which would pretty much have to be that Beau is passing on the race. Ugh. I hope that isn't true.

Anyway, we'll see where this goes. We haven't heard the entire story yet.  

Pretty much confirmed
Press sources are reporting the sign on the podium at the PC says "Mike Castle US Senate"
[ Parent ]
Chalk another race to an appointment clusterfuck.
Carney should've been appointed to the Senate, and then Beau could test his mettle in the House.  Carney would then be an experienced incumbent, a race Castle would be less likely to get into.

This is in addition to CO-Sen and IL-Sen.  NY-Sen worked out only due to blind luck (in terms of winning Gillibrand's House seat).

But Jesus.  How could every single one of these appointments be fucked up?  This has got to be some kind of record.

Post-Clinton appointments
were worse...Al Gore's Senate seat was lost in 1994. Llyod Bentsen's appoint to Sec of Treasury led to a loss of his Senate seat, Les Aspin as SecDef led to a loss of his House seat. Leon Panetta's House seat was in jeopardy after he was appointed head of OMB. Even the Arkansas Governorship was lost after Bill Clinton's Lt. Governor proved to be corrupt. Clinton's was a much bigger fiasco.

Similarly, Republicans lost the Wisconsin Governorship after Tommy Thompson became Bush's HHS Secretary.  

[ Parent ]
Aspin to SecDef "led to" loss of his House seat?
Well, not directly. Peter Barca (D) won the May 1993 special election, and then was defeated for a full term in 1994 by Mark Neumann (R).

(Tragically, Aspin died in 1995, at 56.)

[ Parent ]
At least this time
it's the governors who are screwing up, for the most part.

Ritter - tried to do some kind of three-dimensional ninja appointment jujitsu that led to him appointing a guy from the wrong part of the state that nobody's ever heard of and putting his own seat in jeopardy to boot.

Paterson - never elected in the first place and would've been about as popular as cancer even if he hadn't tried the same three-dimensional appointment jujitsu crap.

Blago - Tried a different kind of appointment jujitsu, got caught by the FBI hawking the seat for favors and, once the room cleared, ended up appointing the one guy vain enough to grab the cursed apple from the tree even though he'd already promised not to appoint anybody to the seat.

Minner - Oldest governor in the country makes one final appointment on autopilot before heading for greener pastures and picks the first guy she can think of instead of thinking it through or letting the new guy do it right. (Of course, with the record we're having this year, Markell might've screwed it up, too.)

Now, Obama probably should've picked a more logical Interior Secretary than Salazar (and a better VP than Biden, for that matter), but for the most part it's stupid governors acting stupidly, including Eliot Spitzer.

The good news is that Blago and Minner are gone for good, and Ritter and Paterson won't survive the current cycle. 2010 is going to be ugly, but at least it'll purge some of the worst foxes from the henhouse.  

[ Parent ]
Ritter
Isn't it simply that Ritter has poisonous relationships with the most logical pick for the open Senate appointment, popular Denver mayor John Hickenlooper? Honestly, I'm still hoping that Hickenlooper primaries Ritter.

I'm not sure why Romanoff got passed over, whether there's bad blood there or whether Ritter was trying to do some sort of mind-meld with Bennett's former employer, the Colorado-based right-wing billionaire Philip Anschutz.

[ Parent ]
Well,
even if that was the issue, Bennet wasn't even on anybody's radar until he got picked. It was a completely illogical decision. Strategically, if you're going to pick a Democrat in a state like Colorado for an unelected position, you pick a guy like Majority Leader John Morse, who frankly would've been perfect - represents a conservative area, but doesn't run from his own positions and is actually more progressive than Bennet on pretty much everything. When you've just elected a "Boulder liberal" to the other seat, you a.) don't appoint a guy from Denver, b.) don't appoint a guy who works in education, which most of the Mountain West scorns, and c.) don't appoint a guy from Denver who works in education who even most of Denver hasn't heard of. I'm sure there was some kind of backroom deal behind it all, but still, incredibly stupid move on Ritter's part.

And yes, I agree. Hickenlooper should primary Ritter. The problem is he probably won't; he's got his current gig for life, after all, and Ritter would put up more of a fight than most politicians in Hickenlooper's position would be willing to risk losing.  

[ Parent ]
Correction.
Minner didn't really do anything wrong, and it's unfair to lump her in with the likes of Ritter, Paterson, and Blago. And Kaufman is actually a pretty good Senator. I don't care for the choice of Castle vs. Another Biden in the long term, but that's hardly Minner's fault. Ironically, either would be better than that sorry excuse for a Democrat/human being occupying Delaware's other Senate seat. And as I say, Markell might've screwed it up by appointing his dog even if Minner had deferred (and cost her state full representation in the Senate for two months). It seems to be that kind of year.  
[ Parent ]
This has been discussed
Ad nauseum so I'm reticent to bring it up again. I see absolutely no problems with Miner appointing a placeholder and then let the people of Delaware decide who they want to represent them because defeating an incumbent senator in a primary is next to impossible.
[ Parent ]
DE-Senate appointment, totally right to me
It's to hard to discern if there is hypocrisy at play amongst many of the posters on this blog as so many people are quite new.  But back during all the appointments, everyone was all screw appointments, we should have elections to determine who our Senators are, not some Governor.  But then when it came to DE-Sen, everyone was all annoyed that a placeholder was appointed so that Joe's son could get elected instead of allowing Merkel to appoint Carney.

Im of the mindset that appointing placeholders is the best method until an election can occur as I dont like winning because of unfair incumbency.  Id rather Biden lose to Castle in a fair and democratic way than have appointed someone who can rack up incumbency he wasnt elected to earn.

There is the good governance in me chiming in.

[ Parent ]
If there were a special election shortly after...
... inauguration, the party of the winner would not be in doubt.  I have always been an advocate of the TX model - an appointment, followed by a quick special election.  What you appear to be suggesting, mandating a placeholder appointment, is probably unconstitutional.  

Besides that, you can't take the politics out of politics.  What MA did was far greasier than appointing a non-placeholder.  I supported the change (the second law, anyways).  Because these outcomes matter.

BTW, we're talking about someone trying to win an election because his dad is Veep.  That may not be an advantage as large as brief incumbency, but it would be hard to call it any less "unfair." There's no way he would've cleared the field if Beau were a Carney.

[ Parent ]
Actually I really don't see what was wrong with the Deleware appointment
     I mean yes, I know that this was sort of done to give Beau a leg up on the seat. But, I actually think this was what all the other states should have done. Appoint a placeholder, and let everyone who want's to run throw there hat into the ring. I agree with you that the IL-Sen and the NY-Sen were complete fuck up's. Although with CO, I don't neccesarly think that was as bad. Yes, Bennett is a political novice, but at least the process wasn't a three ring circus. In regards to Biden Vs Castle. I think some people are getting a little hysterical here. Yes, Castle has the potential to make the race competitive. But Biden also has alot of other advantages that work in his favor. Including the fact that he has been elected to statewide office before. In fact I suspect he's probably the strongest canidate that the Dems have now. And wasn't Carney only elected as the Lt governor, which is basically a sidekick position.
[ Parent ]
well I'll be damned
I called this one wrong.  I really, really, really didn't think Castle wanted to risk a loss to to Beau Biden.  But I guess he's got nothing better to do.

btw, I still think the polls are showing a high-water mark for Castle.  He hasn't been seriously contested since...well I can't remember.  The DSCC isn't going to let this seat be lost.  The Vice President is not going to let a Republican get his seat.  There's going to be millions of dollars coming in for our side, Castle is going to get outspent badly.

And oh man, wouldn't it be priceless if the Club for Growth gets involved here?

Club for Growth probably won't get involved
although they'd love to.  There just isn't much of a bench in the state for them to turn to, much less someone crazy enough to take on the one guy who is the Delaware Republican Party.  Also, Castle is pro-business and not too union-friendly so he may avoid their ire.

I've said this before but I'll give full disclosure again: I did direct mail in Delaware back in 2008, although I didn't work directy on Beau's AG campaign (the AG race takes place in off years, while the Governor's race takes place in Prez election years.  I know, it's weird).  However, many of the folks I worked with were endorsed and prominently featured Beau Biden, Jack Markell, and Tom Carper.  So, you can take my prognostications with a grain of salt as I'm probably biased on Delaware.

Here's the deal with Beau - he's only won a single election, and only did so by about 8 points in a strong Democratic year against a relatively unknown Republican.  Not a good sign.  There's also some resentment amongst Delawareans that his success is too attached to his dad.  However, I do know that his endorsements were featured in some of the most Republican parts of the state to great effect in downballot races, which makes me believe that centrist GOPers in New Castle County (where over 1/2 of the state population resides) would be receptive to voting for him.  Also, Castle hasn't been challenged since 1992 (see my post below about how the Carper "swap" protected him) so it remains to be seen how well he has kept his skills on the stump.  Fundraising won't be a problem for him; there's enough national GOP groups that want to stick it to Biden (and by extension the Administration) that will pour money into this race.

There is also the question of local demographic changes.  The Republican Speaker of the state house, Terry Spence, was very much in the same mold as Castle - moderate, pro-business, low-profile - but lost his seat in re-election last year to a generic Democrat by a wide margin simply because his district had a 2-1 D to R ratio, about the same as the entire state.  Republicans got slaughtered up and down the ballot last year despite a deeply unpopular outgoing Democratic Governor largely because the race was made about national politics and Republican screwups.  What I'm getting at is that we shouldn't necessarily fear this race.  If it becomes about teabaggers and GOP obstruction and extremism, and if Beau can get the base turned out in the same numbers as in 2008, we should be able to win this but not by more than 4-5 points.  If Beau makes a high-profile fuckup however, it will only reinforce his image as a "favored son" with nothing else and will put him in a deep hole.  

[ Parent ]
His impressive favorables now
Outweigh how much he won by in the first place no?
[ Parent ]
To some extent
but his electoral history allows Republicans to circulate the storyline that he is "weak" or "untested," which will give more credence to Castle's campaign.

I think we should also note that even though Castle has done well, almost none of the candidates he has endorsed or supported have done well.  Last cycle he heavily endorsed GOP Lt. Governor candidate Charlie Copeland, the former state Senate Minority Leader who was widely seen as his heir apparent, and he still lost by a big margin.  I think it shows that Castle's favorables do have a limit.  On the flip side, nearly every candidate that featured Carper and/or both Bidens on the campaign trail won, even in traditionall Republican areas.  

[ Parent ]
Wilmington News Journal
Here's the story from the local paper.
Next shoe to drop?
I wouldn't be surprised if within a month John Hoeven announces he'll run against Byron Dorgan. The NRSC has just been that good.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
And then Pataki

[ Parent ]
doesn't matter, neither will win
I will bet even money (any size wager) right now on Dorgan and/or Gillibrand, and give me 2 to 1 and I will bet Gillibrand wins by double digits.  she is a savvy politician and Pataki is still a joke in NY state.  nothing would please me more than watching Pataki on the stump and later on getting his clocked cleaned by Gillibrand in the debates.

unfortunately, Pataki isn't quite dumb enough to go head to head with Schumer's star pupil.

and by the time January rolls around and health care reform is in the books, I won't be surprised to see CW clowns like Rothenberg and Broder and the rest of the 2 months behind crowd talking about Obama's rope a dope strategy and the continued problems of "moderate" vs. frakkin' insane that continue to destroy the Publican party.

[ Parent ]
I agree
But the resources strain is a pain in the ass. If Hoeven and Pataki do run that makes ten top-tier targets. Dems never had that many in 2006 and 2008.
[ Parent ]
we should all write thankyou notes to the Hamptons
Imagine if Ensign (running the RSCC) hadn't been getting biblical with his staffer's wife during the 2006 and 2008 cycles?  Wonder how much money they left on the table and how many candidates sat it out with Ensign more concerned about the Hamptons than on winning elections for his party in the senate...
[ Parent ]
Pataki
At the end of the day I think NY'ers will remember the George Pataki whom was an unpopular Governor in the last year or so of his term. Thats one of the reasons he didnt run for another re-election. Yeah he had the Spitz to contend with (who would have beaten a popular Pataki) but it was a reason.  
[ Parent ]
Gallows humor
Replace Pluto Nash with Mike Castle.
Replace film studio with DSCC/SSP comment threads.
Replace weekend box office numbers with latest generic ballot polling.
And "enjoy".
http://www.adultswim.com/video...

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
GROAN
I was already thinking about Hoeven, but had forgot about Pataki. At least these are the only two seats that could get worse. I hope.

Feingold, Bayh, and Murray better hope they keep a low profile in Cornyn's line of sight.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Mmmm
Not seeing anybody there. Nobody is beating Bayh. Feingold would need Tommy Thompson and I imagine it would take Reichert to even be competitive with Murray. I actually find it funny - seems the GOP have convinced themselves it really is going to be 1994 all over again. I think they are in for a serious rude awakening which will be just as sweet as the last two cycles.
[ Parent ]
Agreed!
This is why they are getting their top recruits, they think they will be doing well.

It's a long way to November 2010.  My one worry, success breeds successes which breeds success.  Even if the environment is different, the current anti-Democrat/incumbent environment may not last, but these top tier recruits will and they may win.  

[ Parent ]
Democrats need to get some achievements stat.
Both to: 1) Reawaken the base and 2) Show the people that Democrats can actually deliver on both explicit and implied promises.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
The key remains
Their vulnerable seats are mostly on purple turf while the vulnerable Dem seats are mostly on blue turf. They are gonna struggle if and when the environment improves for Dems.
[ Parent ]
That's why I'm optimistic
I think we'll win Ohio, New Hampshire, and Missouri while defending Delaware, New York, Illinois, Connecticut, and Nevada.  I think our only lose will be Arkansas, which is really no great loss anyways.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
They have been generally
But deserve criticism with their support for Blunt and Portman. Those 2 may have experience, name ID and fundraising prowess but they would be weak in a GE. For different reasons. Still, Cornyn has done a good job overall and a solid midterm election will really help his political legacy. As he is not a really popular Senator here in Texas.  
[ Parent ]
What is Rothenberg smoking?
http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

We are talking about the popular state Attorney General not some schmuck dragged off the street. Not to mention the son of the frickin' VP. In a blue state. He has been sounding more reasonable lately too. Would go as far as to say disrespectful. And Castle hasn't run a race in years.

Rothenberg always veers right
at least in the 5 years since i have been obsessed with this horserace stuff.
[ Parent ]
In his commentary yes
But his ratings are usually good. I can't understand this one. Unless he has insider info that Beau is out.
[ Parent ]
OTOH
I don't know how he has Bennet as a clear favorite.
[ Parent ]
And Alex Sink
Odd.
[ Parent ]
Agree, Stu is badly jumping the gun......
At first before I read his commentary I thought maybe Stu was just giving a "lean takeaway" rating as a placeholder until Beau decides what to do.  But he wrote he would keep the rating even if Beau gets in!  That's just crazy.  And he bases it on early polling, by which logic Stu needs to change a bunch of his ratings which now would have to be considered outdated.  

And to further confuse himself and us, Stu's commentary goes on to say DE-Sen will still be competitive even if Beau opts not to run.

I think Stu just didn't think it through very well on this.  By all predictable factors, this race right now should be rated a tossup.  A sitting statewide elected A.G., who is the son of the sitting V.P., in a state heavily biased in favor of their own party is not "lean takeover" by the other party's standard-bearer, especially over a year out when the polling is close and the A.G., as a bonus, has military service with a tour in Iraq on his resume.

Methinks this goes down to the wire.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
A Quarter Century of Easy Wins
Castle has been winning, easily, statewide for decades, even though his party's strength in his state has been weakening. That shows Castle has lots of personal strength as a candidate. With that kind of record, why shouldn't he be favored in this race? Beau's got a famous name, but he doesn't have the same record of winning races.
[ Parent ]
Nonsense
He hasn't had to run a race in forever. Beau has high favorables himself. This has Roth/Carper written all over it.
[ Parent ]
But Part of Not Having to Run a Race
Is the ability to scare off the competition. Given how Democratic Delaware has been in recent years the fact that Castle hasn't had to "run a race" in years says a great deal about his standing in the state. For years otherwise ambitious Democratic pols have been too fearful of his popularity to oppose him.
[ Parent ]
Well I keep seeing people
Worry about these southern Dems in the same situation.
[ Parent ]
You forget the Carper-Castle swap
in 1992, where they respectively switched their Governorship and House seat.  Due to that, Carper essentially promised Castle he wouldn't let anyone challenge him, which is why the state party has never supported or been involved in the House challengers.  Castle's "support" from Carper is a large reason why he's been viewed so favorably in the state.  If Carper throws his weight behind Beau and makes this a race about national politics Castle will be in trouble.
[ Parent ]
Just 'Cause Dems are Feaful Doesn't Mean they Should Be
I mean, it's not like Carper is some paragon of electoral courage.

And if Castle doesn't scare Biden out of the race, it really won't matter how good he's been at scaring people out of races before, will it?

[ Parent ]
I don't think it's fear
as much as it was convenience.  Delaware loves its incumbents and politically speaking politicians like to just stay put in a particular office rather than make a huge risk and rock the boat.  That's why Markell's primary challenge to Carney last year was such a big deal as a hand-picked candidate almost never gets challenged.

Castle's broad appeal has always been due to Democratic support, but if they're forced to choose between him and the most legit Democrat in Delaware besides Joe Biden himself I think many of them will come home on Election Day.

[ Parent ]
What a god damn idiot
Lean takeover?  WORST RATING IVE EVER SEEN IN MY ENTIRE LIFE FROM ANYONE, period.
[ Parent ]
Not really
Races are usually rated on candidates actually running, not someone who they are unsure if they are running, especially since it had been said that Biden may not run against Castle.  
[ Parent ]
Wrong, Stu's commentary actually said...
...he would keep this rating even if Beau gets in.

It's very premature and bad judgement by Stu.  Not that it really matters, Stu's ratings don't affect anything except his own reputation, but he ought to be, and normally is, much more cautious than this.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Beau Biden
He hasn't announced yet, has he? If I'm right, why is everyone assuming he won't pass on the race?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
He might yet
Could be why Castle is in. I imagine Carney would switch then.
[ Parent ]
I kind of doubt it
Carney has an automatic Congressional career on his hands for 30-40 years vs a much tougher race.

Although, he did jump in the race against Castle, and that's when he figured he didnt have much of a choice as to which race he got run in (with Biden going for Senate obviously).

Maybe he will if Biden pusses out, then Biden will run for the House and have that be a slam dunk.

[ Parent ]
I imagine the pressure on him
Would be considerable.
[ Parent ]
If Biden and Carney don't run
Who would the Dems run? I'm sure they have a deep bench
[ Parent ]
Without Beau and Carney
Who does the DE Democratic Party have? Im thinking just alot of local politicians most average voters havent heard of.  
[ Parent ]
New Castle County Executive Christopher A. Coons is a name I've hear a bit
He may not have name recognition in Delaware's other two counties but he's very popular in the one that has most of the state's people.  He'd have a good shot if he runs.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Heir apparent
Most people believe his dad worked it out that Beau would take over his Senate seat once he left office, hence the appointment of a Biden loyalist to the seat in the interim to ensure nobody else got any ideas. If that's the case, that's a hard thing to back out on.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
If Beau passes on this race there will be hell to pay
Will Delaware Democrats ever forgive him for allowing a Republican to come in help block Obama's agenda? I mean he wouldn't lose his current job as I believe Delaware state level elections are on during Presidential years, and losing to Castle wouldn't be a killer because he is uniquely appealing to the Delaware. Walking away however would label him as a spinless coward and a daddy's boy: I mean Miller might as well have appointed someone who could run for reelection, which Castle would not have tried to run against.

Do you think that if Biden doesn't run because of Castle if DE Democrats will try to get Carney to switch to the Senate from the House seat. Yes, unlike the House seat it would be 50/50 at best and he would be out of elected office for years, but certainly DE Democrats would reward him by favoring him over Biden in the 2014 Dem primary after Castle (very likely) retires?

[ Parent ]
Carney
Hopefully he would move because any Dem should win the House seat without Castle.
[ Parent ]
Well Carney was kinda of blown off by the state establisment.
That might be a reason why he wouldn't want to jump in, it would have to be a pretty large movement by rank and file Delaware Democrats to get him to switch to the tougher race. Altho it's not hard for me to see such a grassroots recruiting movement to happen.
[ Parent ]
Depends how ambitious he is
Also whether he had an inkling Castle was always going to bail or not. Because if he was willing to get in anyway he might just be up for a quick promotion. Castle will be tough but there are some tough votes to hang around his kneck. The stimulus in particular.
[ Parent ]
Speaking of tough votes
If Castle really does have a clear path to the nomination then perhaps he will veer to the left this year and the next? Hes definitely not in the same situation as, say, Mark Kirk and Rob Simmons.  
[ Parent ]
Doubt it
I read that was part of the reason Castle even considered the Senate race...he and Carney are supposedly very good friends.
[ Parent ]
Carney is in atouch spot
If he wants to be a senator, this may be his best shot, but that deends on if Castle commits to running for a full term should he win (it will come up during the campaign I'm sure).

If I were him, I take the house seat and wait for Carper to retire, hoping he will do so sooner rather than later.  Carne is only 9 years younger than Carper so I'm not sure this strategy would ever work out though.

And what about the placeholder Senator, any chance for him to actually run if Biden drops out?

[ Parent ]
Unless there is anybody else
That would be an option. Charlie Cook seems to be quite certain Beau is in.

http://cookpolitical.com/

[ Parent ]
Unless the rumours that Carper having bad health is true
Then there is no chance that Carney would be able to run in 2012 as I doubt Carper would retire. 2014 in which Castle retires is more likely.
[ Parent ]
2012 may be a bad time
If there is truly an open seat in 2012, don't you think that it would be a bit early for Carney to bail from the house? Most campaigns start in early to mid 2011 for 2012. He will be sworn in in January 2011. He would be better off waiting for the open seat in 2014, if Castle wins
[ Parent ]
MN-Sen
Rod Grams ran for the House in 1992 and then elected to the Senate in 1994.  

And wow, I cant believe we picked up his house seat in 1994 that year, hot damn.  Bill Luther won it and the results were 50% to 50%.  One of 4 Democrats to pick-up a seat in 1994.

[ Parent ]
Wrong, 2012 is the perfect year for Carney if...
...he's running for an open Senate seat.

Obama-Biden will be running for reelection, there will be big coattails for Delaware Dems.  Democratic turnout will be massive.

It will be an interesting year because the math goes against Dems with 24 Dem-held seats compared to just 9 GOP-held seats, but on the flip side the Obama machine will drive up Democratic turnout to massive proportions.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
If Beau passes
the hell with him.  Forever.

And I hope Carney switches to the Senate, and wins.  Or even would go for carper's seat in 2012.  If Beau has no balls, he would be a miserably pathetic senator.

In contrast, if he does take on Castle, good for him. It'd make him a man, not daddy's boy.

[ Parent ]
Age and health will be a huge issue
Castle will be 71 on election day and will have had two strokes. This is similar to why Roth lost to Carper in 2000.
71 isn't very old
How serious were the strokes? Did he miss more than a couple of weeks of work either time?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
71 isn't old in general for the Senate
However it's extremly rare for someone in their 70's to be running as a non-incumbent for the Senate: Castle would be losing all of his senority in the House, which I don't understand. If I was in his shoes I would greatly prefer to run for re-election because at least I could have an incumbent advantage.
[ Parent ]
Hmmm...
Jaxx I wonder if being in such a minority (party) in the house makes being in the minority in the Senate kind of a wash.  Sure you lose seniority, but you're also in the Senate so that is more meaningful to politicians.
[ Parent ]
And
he'll be incredibly powerful as he'll be another Snowe in the Senate, with the Democrats coming to him often.
[ Parent ]
being a Senator in the minority
you actually still have a fair amount of power, such as placing holds on appointments and legislation, voting against cloture, etc.
Being in the House minority you really have little to zero power.
[ Parent ]
71 is old
To run your first campaign for senate. His strokes were both in 2006 and are characterized as "minor" at Wikipedia.
[ Parent ]
Ouch
Mike Castle's probably gonna be a tough guy to beat, even in a dark-blue state as Delaware, and even against a guy named Biden. Christine O'Donnell will be irrelevent if she continues on in her bid for the nomination. But really, this is a testament to the GOP's confidence heading into 2010.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
I wonder if O'Donnell
Will switch to the House race. I would.
[ Parent ]
I don't think that she would
The only way O'Donnell could win the House race would be if the Democrats refused to nominate a candidate. Perhaps she feels she could get more of a kickkick hitting Castle on his moderation in the Senate then hitting lesser known opponnets in the GOP primary, and with her very conservative profile, there is no way Delaware Republicans are going to just give her the nomination like they did VP Biden's Senate race in which victory was a given no matter who Republicans nominated.
[ Parent ]
IL SEN
Kirk has 2.3 million CoH
G (the dem) has 2.4 milion CoH

This according to cqpolitics.  I think Kirk probably needs more money than G seeing as it is in IL, Obama can campaign for G and Kirk is probably pretty unknown.

That is a good amount of money for Kirk
He is going to need it in a state as expensive as Illinois, especially in the Chicago media market.

Not sure if he needs more money than Giannoulias however, with the mafia connection rumours spreading around.

[ Parent ]
Those were around
When he was elected Treasuer. I'm thinking it hurts as much as Rezko, Wright and Ayers hurt Obama.
[ Parent ]
Giannoulias can self fund if he felt the cards weren't falling the way he wants them.
So as long as he's keeping pace now, I'm not too concerned.  
[ Parent ]
wait for the open thread
there will always be one  ;)
[ Parent ]
Still not concerned.
A former lt. governor, governor, and multi-term governor was shown leading a less expierenced candidate barely outside the margin of error.  And that's with the political winds less conducive to Democrats now than there were.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Dems better make use of those 60 seats while they last.
Reid and Lincoln are probably (hopefully?) toast no matter what, and Delaware will be very difficult to hold. But Bennet and Dodd still have a chance, and Giannoulias and Specter/Sestak should have no problem by November. We should be able to limit our losses here to 2 or 3, 4 at the most. (-2 or 3, maybe 4).

We should easily pick up Missouri and Ohio. We have really strong candidates, and the GOP candidates stink of corruption and the Bush years. (+2)

New Hampshire, Louisiana, and Kentucky will all be tougher, but we should be able to take at least one or two of them, if not all 3. (+1 or +2, maybe +3)

There are still opportunities in North Carolina and maybe even Texas.

I'm still seeing a 60-seat Democratic Senate here, but with a new and hopefully more effecitve Majority Leader and without the esteemed Senator from Walmart.

Once the Dems actually start accomplishing something, now that they've finally realized you can't negotiate with terrorists (the GOP), they should start improving in the polls. It's incredibly frustrating to see the country turn so quickly on the people it just elected in a landslide.

I'm not writing off anybody yet
Not Lincoln and especially Reid. But I agree there is high likelihood of a scattershot result in the senate next year. The House too since Dems really should win the Cao, Castle, Gerlach and Kirk seats even in a negative environment.
[ Parent ]
It's short-sighted to write off Reid and Lincoln. The only Dem...
...in real long-term trouble is Chris Dodd, because his problems are personal to him and not tied very closely to the current political environment.

The timing on the environment is terrible for Republicans, they needed this next year not now (except in Virginia where I am, dammit!).

As the economy gradually improves and health care legislation is enacted, a lot of our incumbents will see their numbers improve.

That doesn't mean the current bad enviornment has no long-term consequences, because it obviously helps the GOP with recruiting and fundraising which will matter a lot this time next year.

But the current polling simply isn't worth anything except in a very few cases, like Dodd's.  And even with Dodd, we we see today isn't necessarily what we'll see next September/October.  After all, I thought for many months that Corzine was toast and a lost cause, and Deeds was in the game, and here we are saying differently now.  It just proves Chuck Todd's refrain:  "candidates and campaigns matter."

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
What exactly
is specifically wrong with Lincoln?  I've been wondering this for a while.  She's about as Blue Doggish as any Senate Democrat, and Mark Pryor didn't even have an opponent for reelection.  In the long run, I have a hard time writing her off.

Same with Reid, ultimately, given how much money he has.

[ Parent ]
A black man is President
and she's a member of his party.

the end.

If Hillary Clinton was President, Lincoln would be safe.  

[ Parent ]
I'm writing them off because
I kind of want them to lose. I'd much prefer them resigning to being replaced by a Republican, but the Senate has made it pretty clear that they will not elect a new leader, and Lincoln has made it clear that she's going to vote for industry over people. She refuses to support a public option in any form (and will probably filibuster it) and generally votes how Walmart wants her to.
[ Parent ]
Oh, right, didn't even notice this the first two times I read the post.
A Senate term is six years, not four. Which makes me question even more what Castle is thinking.  
it is for the remainder
Of Biden's term that he won in 2008
[ Parent ]
Four years of Joe's uncompleted term
The Delaware seat is a special election.
[ Parent ]
Right, of course.
Biden was just re-elected. My bad.
[ Parent ]
Remember
If Beau Biden runs and has the Democrats working then
It Is not a sure bet Castle will win.This Is a Democratic
State.Obama's popular,and Castle did vote against the
stimulas.It should also be noted that the last poll from
RAS had It closer.

If Democrats pass Helath Care reform with a form of a Public Option,but with no trigger,they will be all right.

I see the 2010 senate races like this

Democratic seats In Danger

Nevada,Arkansas,Colorado,CT,and now Delaware.

Repub seats In Trouble

Missouri,Ohio,and NC(remember this seat flips every 6
years between parties)

Wild cards:Kentuckey,New York(If Patterson Is In the general election and eather Patki or Saint rudy runs
against Gilibrand) and NH(based on some polls)

Democrats will keep Illinois,and PA.Republicans will keep
Florida and LA.

agree with most
My take as of today:

Top 14 chances of flipping from most to lease likely (7 for each team):

1. MO: Virtually nobody likes Blount and most like Carnahan (the race will be defined in part by the family representation at least as much as the individual candidates themselves)

2. OH: Porter will successfully be defined as a Dubya stooge

3. AR: with Lincoln against the public option and other useful portions of healthcare reform, costing her valuable support from labor and core democrats, in a state that dropped most from 2004 to 2008 in terms of Dem votes, who exactly is Lincoln's constituency?

4. NH: wait until NH gets a better look at Ayotte on the stump, the poor thing just hasn't a clue how to campaign and takes not having a position to a new level (caveat: Hodes has come across as the 2010 version of Allen (ME-Sen in 2008), he needs to be more forceful)

5. CO: Bennet is a wildcard to me, might get bloodied by Romanoff, no clue how he campaigns, Ritter has bad coattails, and Colorado is still purple and has some serious freakshow street cred and which will be galvanized by the socialist/fascist/humanist/racist calls unlike most other states

6. CT: Dodd will pull it out, the state is just too Blue to vote against the Obama agenda of education, healthcare and energy reform

7. NV: having 2 Reids on the ballot will make it close, but having Ensign and Gibbons as the face of the Pubs in NV will give it to Harry the hopeless in a fairly close race

8. DE: Castle hasn't campaigned in years (decades?), the teabaggers already showed what they think of him, he voted for too much for Dubya's agenda and not enough of Obama/Biden's and Biden will be fundraising daily to ensure the seat won't flip

9. LA: Melancon is a good get but Vitter has the requisite fire to campaign and has no problem getting in the mud when required

10. KY: Conway vs. Grayson in a purple state is a toss-up but Kentucky is not Obama country

11. PA: Toomey has said some really outlandish stuff and Specter/Sestak/DSCC will have no problem painting him as too far right for a state Obama won by double digits

12. NC: Burr is not offensive and Marshall doesn't have the fire (or the DSCC cash) that Hagan had (and 2008 won't be 2010)

13. TX: White is a good get, but Texas is still 4 yrs away from being a legit Democratic pick-up (give the economy time to recover and healthcare reform time to settle in and take effect)

14. IL: Kirk is overrated and Gianoullias/Obama will pull it out by more 7%

[ Parent ]
doh #2 should be Portman not Porter
was typing too quickly while on a conference call
[ Parent ]
Hrm
I think you mean 2010 wont be 2008? Also, Toomey has said all the right things. He is painting himself into a moderate, not the other way. With Castle in, it is much less likely that Biden gets in, because supposedly Joe and Mike have a long friendship. In NV, you count on the negative influence of Gibbons hurting the GOP in the Senate race. Gibbons will be long gone by then, no way he makes it out of a 2-way primary with Brian Sandoval.  
[ Parent ]
Biden chose to run against his then-pal McCain in 2008
I feel that however close Joe is to Castle he'd rather see his son in the Senate.  But I guess we'll see.  


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Hmm, I think...
1. AR (D -> R)
2. NV (D -> R)
3. OH (R -> D)
(look more likely than not.)
-----------------
4. DE (D -> R)
5. NC (R -> D)
6. MO (R -> D)
7. CO (D -> R)
8. NH (R -> D)
(coin flip.)
-----------------
9. CT (D -> R)
10. IL (D -> R)
11. PA (D -> R)
(decent GOP candidates trying to defy odds in very blue states.)
-----------------
12. TX (R -> D)
13. KY (R -> D)
(meh GOP candidates not having to defy any odds because they're states are redder than a hot tamale.)

I'll say 4 D pick-ups (Fisher, Marshall, Carnahan, Hodes) and 5 R pick-ups (Baker, Lowden, Castle, Simmons, Kirk).

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Check out this from Political Wire
It basically says Biden is going to win because Castle is leading now based on name recog, and most of the undecides are Democrats.

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

This feels like a replay of Delaware's 1972 Senate Race
There we had an elderly Republicsn incumbent (J. Caleb Boggs) who had a long career as Delaware's Governor and Congressman running somewhat reluctantly.  His opponent is a much younger more energetic Democrat (Joe Biden).  The year also isn't a great one for Democrats (to put it mildly about 1972).  Just worth pointing out in addition to the Carper-Roth comparisons.  Will history repeat itself one more time?

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


My prediction:
Carney runs for the House and wins, Castle runs for the Senate and wins, and Biden runs for re-election to AG and wins. To put it another way, the Delaware Way wins.

I don't think Castle will have much of a challenge from Christine O'Donnell, because most Republicans will realize that Castle is their only shot at the seat and backing a nut like O'Donnell is a one-way ticket to 40% of the vote.

Similarly, there will be no hard feelings from the Delaware Democratic Party apparatus if Biden waits until 2014. Heck, they probably won't give any institutional support to a non-Biden candidate. The DSCC might be able to beg Lt. Gov. Matt Denn into the race, but he'd be a distinct underdog.

If Beau passes I've heard New Castle County Executive Christopher A. Coons' name tossed around
He doesn't have the statewide name recognition as Beau but he's apparently very popular in the county, which has more than half the state's people.  If he runs he may be the underdog but he wouldn't be a pushover.    

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
2010
People are being too pesmetic.On hardball Tweety said
Republicans could take the House.Obama's approval Is In
the 50's not the level Clinton was at.The media IS already
In the memo that Corzine winning In New Jersey would not
matter.The democrats must pass health Care with some kind
of public opotion.If they want Obama's base to come out
they have to do It.Even If they have to go reconncilation.
I remember for years democrats being ahead In Generic ballet yet Republicans keep the Congress,and some at one
time thought 2002 would be a good year for Democrats.

I call the senate this way

Nevada-Reid Is not liked but If a public opotion passes
this helps Reid getting Democrats to come out for him.
Republicans keep ailenating Hispanic voters.And Republicans
have their own problems In Nevada that people keep forgetting about.Reid can lose If this Is a antoreid campagin but If they try to make this a antiObama campagin
Reid could pull It out

CO-This can go eather way.Bennent Is the weakest of the
appointed senators running for a full term.But,he might
be able to pull It off.

MO-Robin Carnahan will beat Roy Blunt.I live In Missouri.
She can win.

Illinois-Kirk will not win Obama's seat.Just wait till Obama cuts ads against him and It Is pointed out Kirk
voted against the stimulas and will be voting against
Health Reform.

Ohio-Portman will lose.Just wait for Ads of him as Bush's
Budget Director.Remember people who worked for Clinton have
lost.

PA-Eather Spector or Sestick will beat Toomey.Once they
end the primary Toomey's real record will be exposed.

CT-Dodd Is In trouble but he Is starting to do better In
the polls.He could be the Corzine of 2010.CT Is a blue
state and Simmons will vote against the Obama agenda.

New York-Gilibrand only loses If Paterson Is the Democratic
Nominee for Governor and eather patki or Saint Rudy runs
against her

Delaware-Castle Is a good candiate for Republicans.But
remember Delaware Is a Democratic state.Castle voted against the Stimulas.He will likely vote against health
Care reform.When he starts attacking Obama,Biden,and Democrats he could have problems.And If Biden could attack
mccain It Is crazy to think he would leave Castle alone.
And don't underestimate Beau Biden.He did great at the
convention,and having the President and Vice President
for him will help.

NH-It depends how accute the polls are.There were off polls
last fall here.

NC-This seat flips every 6 years.

Arkansas-This Is turning Into a antiObama state.This Is
Lincoln's biggest problem.

LA-Vitter will win.But this shows what a bunch of Hypcrates
Republicans are.

Texas-If Hutchenson resigns this is a wild card My first
Instincy would be to write this off however Texas could
In a few years become a swing state unfortinly It may be
till 2016 that this happens.

Kentucky-My first Instincy would be to write this off as a
Republican win however polls suggest that might not be true.So I am unsure.

Florida-No way Crist loes.

I have a prediction
2011.

Senator Beau Biden  

Not sure if this has been mentioned
But First Read reports that Beau Biden "might be having more cold feet than some realize, so we're hearing."

If true Tommy will be mad and I am not amused.  

DE-Sen, DE-AL: Harold & Kumar Go to Mike Castle | 150 comments

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