SSP Daily Digest: 11/10 (Part II)

CT-Sen: Rumors are popping up that ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, still the GOP Senate primary’s frontrunner by most people’s estimation but financially outgunned on a variety of different fronts, may switch to the now-open gubernatorial race. Simmons, however, says his plans are “unchanged,” and touts his foreign policy background, saying that’s much more useful in the Senate. Meanwhile, an interesting CQ piece looks at pro wrestling svengali Linda McMahon’s role in the race, and wonders whether her vast fortunes will really help her that much in a state where a convention attended by party insiders (where Simmons would be favored) is decisive in shaping the field. (Although even if she doesn’t win the convention outright or meet the 15% threshold for getting on the ballot, she can still get on the ballot by collecting enough signatures — certainly an expensive process, but one she could pay for with whatever change she finds under her couch cushions.)

FL-Sen: Here’s about as close as you can get to a Jeb Bush endorsement without his lips actually moving. Bush’s sons, Jeb Bush Jr. and George P. Bush, are headlining a Marco Rubio fundraiser in mid-December.

CT-Gov: Ned Lamont is already staffing up, and a familiar face is going to be one of his key advisors: Howard Wolfson. Wolfson was adviser to Lamont in 2006, but is better known for his lead role in Hillary Clinton’s campaign last year, as well as Michael Bloomberg’s campaign this year.

MN-Gov: Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak ran into a snafu with his campaign still on the launching pad, as the state’s campaign finance board ruled that he spent money on his campaign before he’d filed the campaign paperwork. Rybak paid for a message-testing poll, although it didn’t directly ask questions about the governor’s race. If you want to see the whole polling memo (not something you usually get to see with internal polls), check it out.

WI-Gov: Politics abhors a vacuum, and Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett is acting quickly to fill the vacuum that has formed on the Democratic side of the gubernatorial race. He says he’ll make a decision “one way or the other” by the week’s end.

CO-04: Although state Rep. Cory Gardner is clearly the NRCC’s favorite in the Republican field, that didn’t deter former Ft. Collins city councilor Diggs Brown, who will be announcing his candidacy on Saturday. He had been considered a likely candidate all year, but was on a year-long Army deployment and unable to announce until now. Univ. of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero rounds out the trio of GOPers seeking to take on first-term Dem Rep. Betsy Markey.

FL-13: James Golden, an African-American minister, attorney and former Bradenton city councilor, launched his campaign last week against Rep. Vern Buchanan. Golden will face an uphill fight against the self-funding Buchanan — unless Buchanan, facing ongoing scrutiny over mysterious campaign finance machinations, goes down in a legal implosion.

ID-01: This may be a surprise, or may not — state House majority leader Ken Roberts withdrew from the GOP primary race to take on freshman Dem Rep. Walt Minnick. Roberts cited health reasons. Roberts initially would have seemed to have a leg up based on name recognition, but veteran and former McCain campaign official Vaughn Ward seemed to be capturing most of the buzz, including a good fundraising start and NRCC touting.

IN-03: Democrats have taken notice in the last few cycles of Rep. Mark Souder’s decidedly lackadaisical approach to re-election in this dark-red district, but now someone from the teabaggy right is taking notice too, and launching a primary campaign. Republican Attorney Phil Troyer (a former staffer to Dick Lugar and Dan Coats) announced his campaign today. (This seems less like an ideological challenge, as Souder is down-the-line conservative, as just opportunistic, taking advantage of his sloth.) Tom Hayhurst, who narrowly lost in 2006, is on track to the Democratic nod again.

MN-03: Add a second Democratic challenger to the list in the 3rd: Minnesota PTA president, and executive director of the Minnesota Optometrists Association, Jim Meffert filed to run. He joins psychiatrist Maureen Hackett; they may still both be joined by state Sen. Teri Bonoff, although Meffert says that Bonoff has hinted to him that she’s likely to take a pass.

NJ-03: Best wishes to state Sen. Diane Allen, who is entering treatment for an aggressive form of cancer. The moderate Allen, who lost the 2002 Senate primary and was short-listed for Lt. Governor this year, had been considered a possible candidate against Rep. John Adler in the 3rd.

NV-02: We’ve got another Democrat lined up to go against Rep. Dean Heller in the 2nd (after Cindy Trigg dropped out several months ago), and he has a strong resume. Jack Schofield is a member of the state’s Board of Regents, and is a former state Senator. Unfortunately, he may not be running the most vigorous campaign in the world, as he was a state Senator in the 1970s, and is a World War II veteran (do the math).

NY-23: The Washington Post has a nice, human-level retrospective on Dede Scozzafava’s collapse in the special election and the difference in how the GOP and the Dems treated her, leading to her Bill Owens endorsement. Meanwhile, things continue to play out, as Scozzafava either stepped down from or was stripped of her leadership role in the Assembly Republicans, depending on who you believe. Start counting down to her party switch (not that the Assembly Dems need the help, what with their 109-41 margin).

OH-02: What’s with all these former Apprentice contestants thinking that’s somehow a stepping stone to political office? Surya Yalimanchili is now planning to run as an independent in the 2nd, currently held by GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt. He’s sounding centrist notes so far rather than sounding teabaggy, though, so he may not help the Dems too much by siphoning off far-right Republican votes.

PA-07: One more Democrat is getting into the open seat field in the 7th, although it’s unclear whether she’ll get much traction against state Rep. Bryan Lentz. Environmental lawyer Gail Conner, an Obama convention delegate last year, threw her hat into the ring.

PA-11: Third time’s the charm? It looks like Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta will give crusty Dem incumbent Paul Kanjorski another challenge next year. Barletta fell just a few points shy of knocking off Kanjorski last year, prompting Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien to enter the Democratic primary for the seat. With pressure from both sides, one has to wonder if Kanjo will hit the eject button. (J)

PA-17: Here’s an example of how voting against health care reform does Blue Dogs a fat lot of good: Rep. Tim Holden got about two days of peace before a Republican state Senator started making noises about a campaign against him anyway. Holden has had little in the way of opposition recently, but now he may face David Argall, who represents Holden’s coal-country turf of Schuylkill County. Relatedly, over in Ohio’s 16th, a Cleveland Plain Dealer profile of fellow anti-HCR vote John Boccieri shows how he managed to win over exactly no Republicans while ticking off his base.

PA-19: With Republican Rep. Todd Platts looking to bail on the House and head over to the GAO, candidates are already scoping out the potential special election. Although it’s a dark-red district (R+12), one good-sounding Dem is gearing up: Ryan Sanders, real estate developer, president of the Red Lion Area Business Association, and most usefully, an organizer for the Obama campaign in York County.

UT-02: More fallout from the health care reform vote: Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson (one of the ‘no’ votes) may, as a result, be facing a primary challenge from the left from state Sen. Scott McCoy (Utah’s only gay state Senator and one of its few liberals). The Salt Lake City-based district is still strongly Republican, although it hasn’t presented Matheson with much trouble lately.

MI-St. Sen.: Here’s an interesting look at the fight by Dems to reclaim the state Senate in Michigan (currently held 22-16 by the GOP, but where the majority of seats are open next year), which would give them the redistricting trifecta. Even if they don’t pick it up (or do while losing the gubernatorial race), the state Supreme Court breaks any logjam, making next year’s Supreme Court elections paramount too. The article also contains a map of the Dems’ preferred redistricting plan, to turf out Rep. Vern Ehlers by creating a Dem-leaning 3rd District linking Grand Rapids and Muskegon.

NH-St. Sen.: A special election will be happening in New Hampshire, giving the Dems the chance to add to their narrow lead in the state Senate there (they currently have a 14-10 edge). Republican state Sen. Ted Gatsas is poised to resign after having been elected Manchester mayor. Democratic state Rep. Jeff Goley is set to get into the race, though several other state House Dems are looking at it too.

Mayors: The Seattle mayor’s race has finally come to an end, with as late-breaking ballots are going more toward former local Sierra Club leader Mike McGinn. Joe Mallahan conceded after McGinn’s lead pushed up to nearly 5,000, for a 51-49 edge.

Ads: In the wake of this weekend’s health care vote, the DNC is planning to target 32 House Republicans in Obama districts who voted ‘no.’ They aren’t planning on using paid media yet, but will use the OFA campaign e-mail lists to organize in those districts. Meanwhile, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee is promising ads against 10 ‘no’ votes, saying it’s “payback” time: Barrow, Shuler, Herseth Sandlin, Murphy, Altmire, Nye, Kissell, Adler, Kosmas, and Ross.

Demographics: If you’re like me, you may spend a lot of time wondering how Scandinavian-Americans got so liberal and Dutch-Americans got so conservative. Dreaminonempty takes a look at ancestry and voting patterns in a very interesting diary at Open Left.

100 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 11/10 (Part II)”

  1. I always enjoy reading the Congressional race roundups here at SSP, but – does anyone know of a running list of candidates for Congressional races in 2010? Is this available anywhere on the Internet?

    I did a cursory look at the races in North Carolina and Ohio, the two states where I have lived most of my life, and I could only find a few Republican-held seats where we have a Democratic candidate challenger in play for 2010.

    Quite a contrast from two and four years ago, when there was such an emphasis on “contesting every district…”

    Anyway, just wanted to ask if anyone knows of such a list. It’s really going to be a shame if we don’t have a Democratic candidate on the ballot in dozens of races nationwide. I also can’t help but think that it will depress base turnout if we ignore Congressional races in deep red districts.

  2. Is this the same David Argall who was just elected to the State Senate a couple of months ago?

    Methinks Holden will be fine.

  3. I’m not sure saying that’s the Dems’ preferred Redistricting plan is quite accurate. That’s the West Michigan Dems’ preferred redistricting plan, but, here in East Michigan, there’s a lot of us that want to redistrict the 11th (McCotter) out of existence. There are probably ways to do both at once if the Dems can get the Senate and Gov. (We’re not losing the House.) But, whether redistricting is up to them or not, getting Bob Young out of the MI SC is crucial.

  4. blog post you link to, a total must-read if you live in the Upper Midwest.

    It finally explained to me why the Red River Valley part of MN is so Republican, they are all of German ancestry!  

  5. I have a personal theory on why Scandinavian-Americans are more liberal. Hundreds of years ago, the most conservative, hot-blooded Scandinavians became Vikings and either moved elsewhere or were killed. The people who were left were the more peaceful, reasonable Scandinavians, which is perhaps why their descendants are so liberal.

    It’s really fascinating to read about some of the liberal Scandinavian-American political activity in the early 1900s. In Rockford, Illinois, there was actually a majority of Swedish-American Socialists on the city council at one point in the 1920s. Rockford multiple Swedish-American Socialist mayors between 1921 and 1953. One of them, Herman Hallstrom, was actually born in Sweden and immigrated to Rockford at the age of 20 in 1908, becoming mayor at the age of 32 in 1921.

    There was a huge Swedish-American socialist movement in the Midwest in the early part of the 20th century, called Svenska Socialisten. By 1920, there were 68 Swedish-American socialist clubs with over 2,500 members nationwide. There is no longer really a Swedish-American socialist movement, but Swedish-Americans have been involved in liberal politics in the U.S. essentially since they first immigrated here.

  6. I HAVE wondered about Dutch immigrants, as my father immigrated in the 1950’s from Holland and I was never able to understand why he is as far to the right as he is, even having lived most of his life in Southern California! Thank you for the link!

  7. This could be too good to be true.  Mark Souder is, as Cristunity correctly says, a “down-the-line” conservative.  But, he’s part of the establishment now, seems to at least live most of his life on this planet (although he says blazingly stupid stuff now and then) — but his biggest problem is that he’s about as invisible a Congressman as you’ll find.  If some teabagging nutjob comes out with all guns blazing, this could be fun!!

    Half the district is in Fort Wayne and its suburbs, and this is a battleground now — Democrats have actually carried “The Fort” against the GOP in several elections recently, and even many of the Republicans are of the more reasonable variety. But you get into some of the other more rural counties in the district (especially Kosciusko — Obama’s worst county in the state, I think), you get into prime Teabagging/Birther Territory.  Add the fact that it is a really cheap district to run a campaign in, as I said, this could be fun to watch if this challenge goes anywhere.

    Add to this Wacky Jackie in IN-02 and Marvin Scott running again here in Indy, the Republicans are putting their craziest foot forward next fall in Indiana!

  8. That will be tough for a Democrat to win. I know because I lived near PA-19 for 2 years, and had coworkers from PA-19. In order to win, the Democrat will have to concede cultural issues (abortion, etc) and tax issues. Issues that could help the Democrats in this district (of done right) are environmentalism, transportation and economic populism.

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