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SSP Daily Digest: 7/30

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 2:51 PM EDT


MO-Sen: This is actually starting to be a theme with Rep. Roy Blunt: he's willing to go on the record as hating Medicare. An interview this weekend included the comments:  "We've had Medicare since 1965, and Medicare has never done anything to make people more healthy." I think tens of millions of senior citizens might take exception to that.

NC-Sen: SoS Elaine Marshall is "pretty seriously leaning toward" getting into the race against Richard Burr, according to strategist Thomas Mills in CQ (although with no mention of whether or not he was speaking on her behalf or just running his mouth). He says she doesn't have a firm timeline, but will let us know in late summer or early fall.

TX-Sen/Gov: When the tradmed actually refers to a conversation with a Senator as a "bizarre series of interviews," you know something's seriously gone awry. Kay Bailey Hutchison seemed to try to walk back her resignation announcement from yesterday when talking with the Houston Chronicle, but after some more probing, made it sound more like all she wanted was for Rick Perry to get out of the race. Because it's her turn. Sounds exactly like something someone who's leading in all the polls would do for her.

In the meantime, Rick Perry said he'd consider moving up the date of the special election to replace KBH, by way of mocking her resignation sort-of-decision, saying that there were too many important things going on in Washington. (Although I'm not sure Texas law would let him do so; it's pretty clear about the election's date.) Also, all this dissonance can only help Democratic Houston mayor Bill White in the special election, who got some good news from the FEC yesterday: they issued an advisory opinion saying he can go ahead and additional funds for the special election that technically doesn't exist yet. (It's kind of complex; he's already raised $4 million in his regular 2012 Senate fund, but now he can raise additional money from the same maxed-out donors in the new fund.)

CA-Gov: It's not just Democratic governors who are taking a hit in approvals. Arnold Schwarzenegger is running at 28% approval and 59% disapproval in California, according to PPIC. (By contrast, Obama is at 65/27 in the state!)

PA-Gov: Rep. Jim Gerlach is making coy reference to an internal poll that shows him losing the GOP primary to AG Tom Corbett, but with "the profile" to win. The poll says Corbett beats Gerlach (and Pat Meehan) 39-11-7 overall, but that Gerlach leads in the Philly area and that he wins when only biographical info is read. (For those not familiar with the concept, the "biographical info" poll question is the internal polling equivalent of a Hail Mary pass.)

UT-Gov/Sen/02: Here's one more name to take off the Open Seat Watch: Jim Matheson verified that he will run for re-election to his House seat, rather than roll the dice on a Senate bid or a run in the 2010 gubernatorial special election (despite having a conceivable shot against as-yet-to-be-promoted Gary Herbert or whatever other weirdo makes it out of the convention process).

AK-AL: Nice to see that Rep. Don Young isn't being forgotten, despite the gravitation of all of Alaska's Democratic talent (ex-state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz, State Sen. Hollis French) toward the gubernatorial race. State Rep. Harry Crawford says he's interested in the race, and has met with the DCCC in DC about it.

CT-04: Here's a bullet dodged for Democrats, and a miss for the NRCC, who've haven't had too many targets decline them lately: state Senate minority leader John McKinney, a noted environment-minded moderate and son of former Rep. Stewart McKinney, who represented the area prior to Chris Shays, said he won't run against freshman Rep. Jim Himes. The GOP may look to fellow state Sen. Dan Debicella instead.

HI-01: Another bit of good news on the recruiting front: state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa has met in DC with the DCCC about the open seat being left behind by gubernatorial candidate Neil Abercrombie. She'd probably be our best bet at keeping ex-Rep. Ed Case from making a comeback.

IL-07: The first Democratic candidate has filed for the open seat that Danny Davis is likely to leave behind. Darlena Williams-Burnett is the Cook County chief deputy recorder of deeds; she's married to Chicago alderman Walter Burnett.

MI-07: Although ex-Rep. Tim Walberg is committed to running to regain his seat from freshman Democrat Mark Schauer, it looks like he'll have some competition in the primary and may not even be the establishment's choice in the GOP primary. Brian Rooney, an attorney at the right-wing Thomas More Law Center in Ann Arbor, brother of Florida Rep. Tom Rooney, and grandson of Pittsburgh Steelers founder Art Rooney, has been talking to the NRCC about the race.

MN-03: One more recruiting tidbit. This one sounds like it's far from a sure thing, but state Sen. Terri Bonoff has said she's "undecided" but taking a MN-03 race "under consideration." (Bonoff lost the DFL endorsement to Ashwin Madia in MN-03 last year.)

TX-32: I'm not sure why stories involving blimps are just inherently funny, but Rep. Pete Sessions got into a bit of a blimp-related brouhaha. The ardent foe of all things earmark got busted by Politico, of all places, for very slowly and quietly steering a $1.6 million earmark for blimp construction to an Illinois company with no track record of government contracting, let alone blimp making -- but it did have one of Sessions' former aides lobbying for it.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/30
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Blanco Considering 2011 LA Gov run?
http://www.bayoubuzz.com/News/...
Blanco seems to be considering a come back  

If I were Sarah Steelman
I'd be officially in this race in a heartbeat.  This is the fourth stupid thing Blunt has said this month alone: he's beginning to look more like Kim Hendren than Joe Biden.  Obviously his money can prove a serious threat, but he seems to be doing all he can to make himself look far outside the mainstream.  

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."- Andrew Jackson


Blunt probably cant win without seniors
So I dont get why hes being this foolish. And many people who aren't seniors, but close to that age (55-65 range) will also be quite taken aback by all this. Hell Im only 26 and even Im taken aback.

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure any Republican an win without seniors


"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."- Andrew Jackson


[ Parent ]
Looking at the 2006 Senate exit polls, every age group was almost evenly split
If seniors and the soon to be 65 crowd break Democratic it's probably over for Blunt.  Can't see him making up the ground anywhere else.  

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."- Andrew Jackson


[ Parent ]
Don Young
I guess I'm a little bit bittersweet about the guy seeing as he comes from Alaska I expected him to be more of a party loyalists
But I get the feel he's more of a moderate Repub than a conservative one.

Wondering if it had anything to do with the old/new republican divide in the state


He has
one of the more moderate records among Republicans, but he's not moderate about the same things as the archetypal suburban moderates (Kirk, Reichert, etc.). He's about as die-hard as they come on social issues and especially on the environment. Instead, he's moderate on the economic issues (not adverse to spending, friendly with unions -- reasonable, since Alaska depends on fed dollars for its existence, and it has some of the highest union participation rates of any state). Chris Smith and Peter King are about the only other guys I can think of with that kind of profile.

[ Parent ]
Even Palin's husband
Was a union guy, although i think until a few years ago. So it definitely seems to be union-heavy.

[ Parent ]
You know...
"The First Dude"

[ Parent ]
Young
I know he voted for more federal funds for stem cell research. But does otherwise seem conservative on social issues.

[ Parent ]
TX-Sen
If Bill loses in the special election (heavens forbid) who will be our candidate in 2012?

If White loses
it won't matter who's our candidate in 2012.  We are not going to pick up that seat after three years of incumbency.  Cornyn actually becomes the better candidate for a pickup after that.

ProgressiveHistorians: History For Our Future

[ Parent ]
White, Sharp, Edwards
First, White faces a primary challenge from another strong candidate in Sharp, so he may not even be the D candidate.

If he is the candidate and it's close (say within 5%, which would be better than any D has done statewide in Texas in years), then I'd think Bill White would have the inside track on a rematch if he wanted it.  If it's a blowout and/or White is revealed to be a flawed candidate, then I'd think Sharp might try again or perhaps Chet Edwards if he wanted to try for Senate.  Those three are our top two potential statewide candidates right now.  But, 2012 is a ways off and someone new could emerge by then.  Unfortunately, since Texas is so large and hasn't elected a Democrat to statewide office in about 10-15 years, there are not any potential candidates who have significant statewide name recognition.


[ Parent ]
need editing function
Obviously, should be "Those three are our top three potential statewide candidates . . . ."

[ Parent ]
Wrong - Special Election in Texas
The top two vote getters will go head to head.  That is the primary.  We could end up with two Democrats or two Republicans on the ballot.  There is no primary between Sharp and White.  

[ Parent ]
Edwards
Would probably be a very overrated candidate. Hes actually not even a conservative Democrat, despite his district's lean. In fact hes not even a Blue Dog. Sure he knows how to win his very conservative district...but it doesnt mean he knows how to win other conservative areas. And he will have no name ID besides from those who really follow politics. Texans dont even know who their own congressman is. So they wont know who Chet Edwards is. And if he runs then his district is almost surely going to the Republican.  

[ Parent ]
Agreed... Edwards is better off keeping his House seat.
EOM

[ Parent ]
In all fairness
He has a good shot in a statewide race around 10 years from now when demographics will be much different. And hes still pretty young. But I just meant as of right now.

[ Parent ]
Hmmm
Well i wouldnt say 57 is 'pretty young'. I always assumed he was in his early 50s/late 40s judging by all the pictures ive seen of him lol. Maybe i should just keep up with C-SPAN. As the congressmembers look their real age there! Not old and photoshopped pictures there...

[ Parent ]
Bonoff is a must
got to wonder what we can do to get Terri Bonoff into that race.  I would have prefered the good state senator over Madia last time and still think Terri is the one who can win that seat.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

Rooney
If he wins Congress will have its 3rd set of siblings (assuming all the others are in Congress on Jan. 2011). But the only set to reside in different states. Luckily for him theres not a Steelers/Lions rivarly...as far as I know anyway. Hed probably have a harder time in, say, Dallas Cowboys territory.

Im scratching my head at how KBH can ask Perry to step aside like that. He is the one who is leading in all the polls! Its his race to lose! This isnt like Andrew Cuomo saying Paterson should step aside. Perry actually has a very good chance at winning re-election.  


Fourth
The Levins, Diaz-Balarts and Sanchezes make three. There was a fourth until recently, when Ken Salazar became Interior Sec'y.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I just meant the U.S. House. I dont know why I said Congress.


[ Parent ]
Robin Carnahan must be smiling.
   Oh the attack ads one could write about Medicare-hating Roy Blunt!

  I'm a little nervous about Elaine Marshall.  Will the Republicans be able to tie her to already incredibly unpopular Governor Beverly Perdue?

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy


possibly
but I doubt it. Hasn't Marshall been in the same office for nearly twenty years? Hard to tie Purdue to her when Marshall has been there so much longer.

[ Parent ]
Of course, her long time in Raleigh could be used against her
May be hard to blame all the state's problems on someone who just oversees it's elections, but I'd be shocked if Burr doesn't try it.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."- Andrew Jackson


[ Parent ]
What has Perdue done
that has made her so incredibly unpopular?

[ Parent ]
A few weeks ago, PPP had a good analysis
In short, she's too scared to take risks and isn't looking like a very confident leader.  Here is the link: http://publicpolicypolling.blo...


"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."- Andrew Jackson


[ Parent ]
Arnold has been unpopular for some time
beginning in 2005 when liberals and left-leaning independents got pissed at the special election that they saw was a threat against unions. Arnold was able to win in 2006 thanks to still-strong conservative/Republican support, as well as attracting back enough moderates and Democrats with his environment stances and minimum wage hike, plus the weak Dem opponent couldn't hurt, either.

Arnold had a popularity bump from his reelection in 2006, but it gradually wore away in 2007 and 2008 as the unpopular budget cuts kicked in, before the bottom fell out in early 2009 after the budget deal that included some tax increases seems to have permanently pissed off the Republican base. So now they likely won't vote for Arnold should he run for Senate in either 2010 or 2012, because they'll just see him as the "Taxinator" and no better on taxes than Boxer or Feinstein (or whoever will take her place on the D ticket if she retires in '12). Hell, even the current GOP candidates for governor are distancing themselves from Arnold!

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!


Arnie
Said on a Fox News interview recently that hed run for Pres. (well, didnt say hed definitely run in the primary but basically said hed make much of the necessary steps to run, which im guessing would include an exploratory committee) if he were allowed to. Doesnt he realize that:
A) Hes way, way too liberal to win the primary? This isnt the West Wing!
B) His abysmal poll numbers, whether fair or unfair, will basically make him uncompetitive in the primary or general. The voters will basically think, 'well if 75% of his own state voters dont even think hes doing a good job why should I think hed make a good President?'

If by some stroke of luck the law were to actually change fairly soon i doubt hed end up running. He seems to be a smart man and just has got to know he cant win.


[ Parent ]
You know what would be extremely entertaining to watch?
Al Franken (D) vs. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) in a presidential race.

Throw in Kinky Friedman (I) for good measure if necessary.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway


[ Parent ]
Oh god, there would be *so many*
'Stuart Smalley is a girly man' jokes by Arnold ;). And Bill O'Reilly would probably have a heart attack if Franken ever got a Pres. nomination, LOL. He literally seems to hate him.

The closest Arnold will ever get to the Presidency was when there was a President Arnold Schwarzenegger in Demolition Man. Where Stallone and Snipes were brought back to life (from a state of crionics) a couple decades or so into the future and they found out Arnold was President. I forget if he ever made a cameo, though.  


[ Parent ]
Remember back when he was first elected?
Republicans were making noises about amending the Constitution so he could run for president. And they were serious.

[ Parent ]
The Constitution should be amended
to allow naturalized citizens to run for President - as long as they cannot possibly be considered citizens of any other country and abscond from prosecution like Alberto Fujimori of Peru did (to Japan). A requirement for them to have lived in the US for x-number of years is reasonable, but a lifetime exclusion in all cases is simply discriminatory.

[ Parent ]
I agree it is discriminatory
Especially if you were brought here as a child. Although it would probably be hard to find many immigrants (whom later became citizens) who dont have dual-citizenship unless they literally were brought here as a child. Or had their citizenship revoked by their oppressive birth country, or something. In fact holding dual-citizenship makes things much easier when you want to go visit your birth country and see family. And just other basic things related to the birth country, probably including trying to get family a work/resident visa in America. So them holding dual-citizenship probably has much more to do with convenience and helping family than it is with any kind of pride and patriotism toward their birth country. Afterall very, very few of them even vote in elections in their birth country even though they are entitled to. In fact even Iranians could vote here in America for the recent Iranian Pres. election. Now, rooting for their home country's soccer (football, whatever) team...well...they will probably always root for them ;).

[ Parent ]
Two of my cousins
were born to American parents in Italy and had to choose American or Italian citizenship when they turned, I believe, 18. Until then, they had dual citizenship. So it really depends on the countries involved.

[ Parent ]
Italy is a special case.
If you have say a grandparent who is Italian, then if your parent, descended from the Italian grandparent, decides to become an Italian citizen, he or she can do so without giving up even dual citizenship. That's the case with my boyfriend's great-grandparents who immigrated to Brazil from Italy. If his grandmother decided to become an Italian citizen, then his mother could have the choice of doing so also. And if his mother decided to do so, then my boyfriend could chose to have three citizenships! Brazil, U.S.A., and Italy! (Not sure about EU citizenship.)

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!

[ Parent ]
Yup
EU citizenship as well. If you're a citizen of any EU member-state, then you're automatically a citizen of the EU. Which is very useful, because he could move to anywhere in Europe and find employment in it.

[ Parent ]
That's great!
I'd love to see Europe and maybe live in at least one member country. Spain, Italy, and Greece are my favorites.

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!

[ Parent ]
My only concern with that
Is it could really hurt the economy of developing EU countries as they could experience alot of 'brain drain'...and just alot of people leaving in general. One of the reasons the ex-East Germany's economy is so bad (something that doesnt get talked about in our media, but its very, very real. Think Michigan and Ohio's economy but seemingly 10 times worse) is because so many of them left to the ex-West Germany after the Wall fell. But the good thing is those developing EU countries get massive subsidies. But it may not necessarily help. Ex-East Germany gets it from the German govt and it isnt helping much, if at all.

[ Parent ]
Yes, having dual citizenship does make visiting your birth country easier.
My boyfriend can attest to that at U.S. and Brazilian Customs at the airports.

And even though he lives in the U.S., he is still required to vote for President of Brazil. It is Brazilian law (left over from the military rule from 1960s-1980s) that all literate Brazilian citizens aged 18 to 65 vote for president regardless of where they live unless they provide documentation of inability to vote. So my boyfriend has to go to the nearest Brazilian consulate (in our case Houston) to cast his ballot. I drove to Houston with him and watched him cast his ballot in 2006. I also went to the consulate that year to do paperwork for my passport for our trip to Brazil later that year!

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!


[ Parent ]
Oh wow
Thats a long trip to make just to vote! But Im sure he doesnt want to face any consequences.

Perhaps out of the norm, a Canadian friend of mine doesnt even want to get American citizenship. I guess because of the work involved. Shes been here 7 years. She thinks the only benefit is being able to vote. I dunno about that. There seems to be alot more than that. But still its her desire to one day move back to her native Ontario which i completely understand.  


[ Parent ]
Agreed
One of the many reform amendments I'd like to see, along with making public financing the sole source of campaign funds, abolishing the Electoral College, instituting IRV voting, abolishing the Senate and replacing it with a proportional body (although that would be tough, considering each state would have to agree), codifying a right to privacy, and making basic life necessities into rights (education, housing, sustanence, etc).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I'd like to see those reforms also!
[ Parent ]
Doubt that'll happen though
Amending the Constitution shouldn't be taken lightly, and that's the whole reason it's so hard to change it (as well as the reason it's only been amended 17 times since the Bill of Rights). Even if it passed Congress and was approved by the President, 38 state legislatures would need to ratify the amendment.  

[ Parent ]
I don't take it lightly
and I'm aware of the process required to amend the Constitution. But I think that this amendment would be fair and put the U.S. further on that arc toward justice that Dr. King believed in.

[ Parent ]
I'm sorry
I didn't mean to sound condescending there...I was just trying to emphasize the deliberate difficulty of the process. It would be a good idea, but I don't know if we can get 38 states to agree on that...or much of anything, really.

[ Parent ]
I agree that now is not the time
when this amendment would pass.

[ Parent ]
btw, no apology needed
but thanks anyway. :-)

[ Parent ]
And I bet these were the same people
Who made so much of a fuss over McCain and Giuliani not being conservative enough. Or Lieberman being too liberal to be on the ticket.

[ Parent ]
I remember those days! The recall brought my attention to politics for the very first time.
And now they see him as another Marxist/socialist/Taxinator/tax-and-spend-liberal/pick your slur.

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!

[ Parent ]
I think most "Limbaugh" Republicans
Those who worship right wing talk radio and have similar views to the hosts...are much more tolerant of social moderate/liberals than those who hold fiscally moderate views. I think many can hold their nose for a pro-choice and pro-gun and pro-environment Republican but once that Republican utters the word "tax!" then it drives them crazy.  

[ Parent ]
And most moderate Republicans
Such as Olympia Snowe are not of the modern-day fiscal conservative type. Probably old school fiscal conservative (where the deficit meant more than low taxes) but not the modern type. Notice most of the ones whom the Club for Growth targeted were also social moderates/liberals. Specter, Chafee, Gilchrest, Schwartz, etc. I cant even remember one whom was a social conservative.

[ Parent ]
Well that depends
on whether or not that hypothetical Fox News-loving voter is a religious nut. My aunt, for instance, is an evangelical Christian and, forgive me, not especially smart. She decides who she votes for largely on their positions on abortion, which she views as evil, terrible, etc.  

[ Parent ]
Maloney "leaning against" Gillibrand challenge
Maybe facing reality
I know they're neck and neck in polls right now, but I don't see how Maloney wins.  Gillibrand has moved very quickly to the left and to lock up support from some major interest groups and she has Obama, Schumer, and, I believe, Clinton, on her side, not to mention truckloads of money.

[ Parent ]
Paleo will not be happy


[ Parent ]
When is (s)he ever?!?
Paleo has gone completely off the rails on this topic more than just about anyone I've seen on this site.  While at the time Gillibrand would probably not have been my first or second choice, from what I've seen she's done a good job, and really could develop into an excellent senator.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I thought she was a horrible choice at the time but I'm very pleased with her as a senator, so far.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I thought she was a horrible choice at the time but I'm very pleased with her as a senator, so far.

[ Parent ]
Sorry for the double post
Don't know how that happened.

[ Parent ]
Sen. Dodd has cancer
http://www.courant.com/news/po...

Early stages, should be ok. Best wishes from all here I'm sure.



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