It’s been over two months since we last took stock of the open seat situation in the House, so, once again, our crack team of open seat forensic analysts down at SSP Labs have put together a new edition of the 2010 House Open Seat Watch.
As always, we’ve compiled three separate lists: one of confirmed vacancies/retirements, another of potential open seats, and a third – available below the fold – of names that have dropped off the watch list. As always, please note that “age” in our charts reflects the incumbent’s age on election day, 2010. Blue boxes indicate a new entry (or an incumbent who has been shuffled between categories). All tables are sortable – just click on any column header to sort.
Definite Retirements/Vacancies:
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-07 | Artur Davis | D | D+18 | Running for Governor |
| DE-AL | Mike Castle | R | D+7 | Running for Senate |
| FL-12 | Adam Putnam | R | R+6 | Running for Ag Comm’r |
| FL-17 | Kendrick Meek | D | D+34 | Running for Senate |
| FL-19 | Robert Wexler | D | D+15 | Resigning to join non-profit |
| GA-09 | Nathan Deal | R | R+28 | Running for Governor |
| HI-01 | Neil Abercrombie | D | D+11 | Running for Governor |
| IL-10 | Mark Kirk | R | D+6 | Running for Senate |
| KS-01 | Jerry Moran | R | R+23 | Running for Senate |
| KS-04 | Todd Tiahrt | R | R+14 | Running for Senate |
| LA-03 | Charlie Melancon | D | R+12 | Running for Senate |
| MI-02 | Peter Hoekstra | R | R+7 | Running for Governor |
| MO-07 | Roy Blunt | R | R+17 | Running for Senate |
| NH-02 | Paul Hodes | D | D+3 | Running for Senate |
| OK-05 | Mary Fallin | R | R+13 | Running for Governor |
| PA-06 | Jim Gerlach | R | D+4 | Running for Governor |
| PA-07 | Joe Sestak | D | D+3 | Running for Senate |
| SC-03 | Gresham Barrett | R | R+17 | Running for Governor |
| TN-03 | Zach Wamp | R | R+13 | Running for Governor |
Amazingly, it’s mid-November and we still have zero true-blue, hang-up-your-spurs, spend-more-time-with-your-family retirements. At this point last cycle, about a dozen members (all Republicans save one) had decided to call it quits. And at least a handful had in 2005 as well. But so far this year, nuttin’. In fact, in a rare move, one guy even dropped off the “definite retirements” list: Danny Davis, who withdrew from his race for Cook County Board President to seek re-election to the House. Meanwhile, only two names are new to the watch list, while five come off:
Potential Retirements/Vacancies:
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-AL | Don Young | R | R+13 | 77 | Age/Legal issues |
| AZ-03 | John Shadegg | R | R+9 | 61 | Botched retirement attempt in 2008 |
| CA-36 | Jane Harman | D | D+12 | 65 | Scandal/Primary challenge |
| CA-44 | Ken Calvert | R | R+6 | 57 | Primary challenge |
| FL-02 | Allen Boyd | D | R+6 | 65 | Primary challenge (Declined Senate run) |
| FL-10 | Bill Young | R | R+1 | 79 | Age/Strong challenge |
| GA-04 | Hank Johnson | D | D+24 | 56 | Possible primary challenge |
| IA-03 | Leonard Boswell | D | D+1 | 76 | Age/health |
| IN-03 | Mark Souder | R | R+14 | 60 | Primary challenge |
| IN-05 | Dan Burton | R | R+17 | 72 | Primary challenge |
| MD-04 | Donna Edwards | D | D+31 | 52 | Possible primary challenge |
| MI-08 | Mike Rogers | R | R+2 | 47 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| MI-10 | Candice Miller | R | R+5 | 56 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| MI-12 | Sander Levin | D | D+12 | 79 | Age/Primary challenge |
| MI-13 | Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick | D | D+31 | 65 | Possible primary challenge |
| MN-06 | Michele Bachmann | R | R+7 | 54 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| NC-06 | Howard Coble | R | R+18 | 79 | Age |
| NV-02 | Dean Heller | R | R+5 | 50 | Possible gube run (Declined Senate run) |
| NY-15 | Charlie Rangel | D | D+41 | 80 | Age/legal issues/possible primary |
| OR-02 | Greg Walden | R | R+10 | 53 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| OR-04 | Peter DeFazio | D | D+2 | 63 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| PA-11 | Paul Kanjorski | D | D+4 | 73 | Age/primary challenge | PA-19 | Todd Platts | R | R+12 | 48 | Seeking GAO appointment |
| SC-01 | Henry Brown | R | R+10 | 74 | Age/Primary challenge |
| SC-04 | Bob Inglis | R | R+15 | 51 | Primary challenge |
| TN-01 | Phil Roe | R | R+21 | 65 | Possible primary challenge |
| TN-09 | Steve Cohen | D | D+23 | 61 | Primary challenge |
| TX-03 | Sam Johnson | R | R+14 | 80 | Age |
| TX-04 | Ralph Hall | R | R+21 | 87 | Age |
| TX-06 | Joe Barton | R | R+15 | 61 | Possible Senate run |
| TX-23 | Ciro Rodriguez | D | R+4 | 63 | Primary challenge |
| UT-03 | Jason Chaffetz | R | R+26 | 43 | Possible Senate run |
A list of incumbents whose names we’ve removed from the Open Seat Watch is available below the fold.
Off the Watch List:
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-01 | Jo Bonner | R | R+14 | 50 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| AL-02 | Bobby Bright | D | R+16 | 58 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| CA-24 | Elton Gallegly | R | R+4 | 66 | Seeking re-election |
| CA-31 | Xavier Becerra | D | D+29 | 52 | Declined USTR/Commerce Sec’y |
| CA-47 | Loretta Sanchez | D | D+4 | 50 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| CT-03 | Rosa DeLauro | D | D+9 | 67 | Considered for Labor Sec’y |
| FL-03 | Corrine Brown | D | D+18 | 63 | Declined Senate run |
| FL-13 | Vern Buchanan | R | R+6 | 59 | Declined Senate/gubernatorial run |
| FL-14 | Connie Mack | R | R+11 | 43 | Declined Senate run |
| FL-20 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz | D | D+13 | 44 | Declined Senate run |
| FL-21 | Lincoln Diaz-Balart | R | R+5 | 56 | Declined to seek Senate appointment |
| FL-22 | Ron Klein | D | D+1 | 53 | Declined Senate run |
| FL-25 | Mario Diaz-Balart | R | R+5 | 49 | Never expressed interest in Senate run |
| GA-01 | Jack Kingston | R | R+16 | 55 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| GA-03 | Lynn Westmoreland | R | R+19 | 60 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| GA-08 | Jim Marshall | D | R+10 | 62 | Never expressed interest in gubernatorial run |
| IA-01 | Bruce Braley | D | D+5 | 53 | Declined Senate run |
| IA-05 | Steve King | R | R+9 | 61 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| IL-07 | Danny Davis | D | D+35 | 69 | Withdrew from run for local office |
| IL-06 | Peter Roskam | R | D+0 | 49 | Declined Senate run |
| IL-09 | Jan Schakowsky | D | D+20 | 66 | Declined Senate run |
| IL-13 | Judy Biggert | R | R+1 | 73 | Seeking re-election |
| KS-03 | Dennis Moore | D | R+3 | 64 | Declined Senate run/Won’t retire |
| KY-01 | Ed Whitfield | R | R+15 | 67 | Declined Senate Run |
| KY-06 | Ben Chandler | D | R+9 | 51 | Declined Senate Run |
| MD-06 | Roscoe Bartlett | R | R+13 | 84 | Seeking re-election |
| MI-01 | Bart Stupak | D | R+3 | 58 | Never expressed interest in gubernatorial run |
| MO-01 | Lacy Clay | D | D+27 | 54 | Has not expressed interest in Senate run |
| MO-08 | Jo Ann Emerson | R | R+15 | 60 | Declined Senate run |
| NC-02 | Bob Etheridge | D | R+2 | 69 | Declined Senate run |
| NC-07 | Mike McIntyre | D | R+5 | 54 | Declined Senate run |
| NC-11 | Heath Shuler | D | R+6 | 38 | Declined Senate run |
| NH-01 | Carol Shea-Porter | D | R+0 | 57 | Declined Senate run |
| NJ-02 | Frank LoBiondo | R | D+1 | 64 | Not tapped for Lt. Governor |
| NY-02 | Steve Israel | D | D+4 | 52 | Declined Senate run |
| NY-03 | Peter King | R | R+4 | 66 | Declined Senate run |
| NY-04 | Carolyn McCarthy | D | D+26 | 66 | Declined Senate run |
| NY-09 | Anthony Weiner | D | D+5 | 46 | Declined mayoral run |
| NY-14 | Carolyn Maloney | D | D+6 | 62 | Declined Senate run |
| NY-16 | Jose Serrano | D | D+41 | 67 | Declined Senate run |
| OH-08 | John Boehner | R | R+14 | 60 | Averted primary challenge |
| OH-17 | Tim Ryan | D | D+12 | 37 | Declined Senate/Lt. Gov. run |
| OH-18 | Zack Space | D | R+7 | 49 | Declined Senate run |
| OK-04 | Tom Cole | R | R+18 | 61 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| PA-08 | Patrick Murphy | D | D+2 | 37 | Never expressed interest in Senate run |
| PA-13 | Allyson Schwartz | D | D+7 | 62 | Declined Senate run |
| SD-AL | Stephanie Herseth | D | R+9 | 39 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| TN-04 | Lincoln Davis | D | R+13 | 67 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| TX-10 | Mike McCaul | R | R+10 | 48 | Declined AG run |
| TX-17 | Chet Edwards | D | R+20 | 58 | Declined VA Sec’y |
| UT-02 | Jim Matheson | D | R+15 | 50 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| VA-10 | Frank Wolf | R | R+2 | 71 | Seeking re-election |
| WI-01 | Paul Ryan | R | R+2 | 40 | Declined Senate run/Declined gube run |
| WI-03 | Ron Kind | D | D+4 | 47 | Declined gubernatorial run |
Putnam resigning to go for Ag Commish is still funny to me after all this time. Now what ever happened to this primary? If he resigns and loses, that will be icing on the cake. Pretty amusing to see Blunt resigning as well, although Senate is a more sensible career move. Oh well, the two of em will make top-tier lobbyists if they fail.
I would be honestly shocked to see Bachmann run for governor. There are so many candidates already on both sides. Unless she wants to run on behalf of whatever Alan Keyes’s party is… American Independent Jesus Flag Apple Pie Warriors or whatever.
I’m glad Chet Edwards declined VA Sec. That story musta slipped by me at the time, but I can’t believe Obama wanted to take a Democrat out of a R+20 district…!! I was already rather disappointed in his decision to take so many Senators and Senate candidates for his cabinet (plenty of other folks to pick from). Edwards has some DINO tenancies but God knows what we could end up with.
Heath Shuler and Bart Stupak on the other hand… their districts seem more moderate than they are, kinda wish Obama would find ambassadorships to Siberia for em.
you should also put Murtha on the list of potential retirements.
I would say Feb 1 is usually the limit on those, but I don’t have any data to back that up. Occasionally, you will get a late last minute one.
Does this list include ALL credible primary challenges? I assume it does since Inglis is not likely to retire but does face a tough primary.
isn’t going to run for governor. She clearly has a ton of ambition, but I think it’s directed more at the Senate. Being governor requires building consensus, which she clearly has no interest in doing.
Plus, Bachmann arguably has more support from national Republicans than from Minnesota republicans. I think she’s more likely to pull a Tancredo-esque run for President than for Governor.
Unless we see an avalanche of vulnerable Dems retire in early 2010 losses should be modest (25 or less at most). 1994 saw FAR more retirements and Dems have a good track record of incumbents rarely losing.
because incumbents will want to wait until redistricting to see what happens.
I haven’t seen it on the radar here at SSP yet, but over the past couple of weeks Steve Buyer has been in big trouble with the press after it came out that his congressional “charity” is actually a slush fund operated by his son, daughter, and campaign finance director that takes money from lobbyists who represent industries in the same sectors covered by Buyer’s committee assignments. It’s also come out that Buyer’s son, while serving on the board of this “foundation”, was also on the payroll of one of Buyer’s favorite pharmaceutical lobbyists. It’s been heavily covered by local media, including the Indy Star, and CBS News has even picked the story up at the national level.
Of course, being the shameless putz that he is, I doubt Buyer resigns willingly, and being that it’s an R +14 district there’s little chance that he loses to a Democrat, but you’d think there’d be a primary challenge at this point – and even if there isn’t, the pressure behind the scenes to get rid of him has got to be building by now.
This also makes it entirely possible that the four Republican-represented CD’s in Indiana will have entirely different representation by 2012.
be listed as off the retirement list as he was awhile back for not running for Senate but now he is officially retiring.
He’s a relatively spry 66, but is eternally dogged by ethical problems, and his campaign account is nearly empty. Man, he and Nick Rahall have been in Congress for a long time.