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FL-10: Charlie Justice Will Run Against Young

by: James L.

Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 2:02 AM EDT


It's time to bring 'em to Justice:

Democrat Charlie Justice will end a decade-long state legislative career to challenge C.W. Bill Young for Congress. "The decisions made in Washington D.C. more and more impact our daily lives and  that's what drew me to public service in the first place," said the 39-year-old state senator from St. Petersburg. "We need people in Washington that understand their decisions have real impact on the families and small businesses here." [...]

Either way, Justice says he's in: "If he decides to retire after 40 years in Washington, we'll thank him for his service and if he decides to run again, we'll have a healthy debate,'' said Justice, an academic adviser at the University of South Florida.

This is another major, major score for the DCCC, who hoped to lure Justice (whose state Senate district is a competitive one which mostly overlaps with Young's 10th CD) into this race last cycle. The 10th District is one of the most evenly-split seats in the nation in terms of its partisan composition; Obama and Gore both won the district under its current lines by four and two points, respectively, while Bush won the district by a 51-49 margin in 2004.

Like Delaware's Mike Castle, Young has routinely won re-election by massive margins, but often against unheralded and unknown challengers. Most recently, Young turned away his latest challenge from Dunedin Mayor Bob Hackworth, whose campaign suffered from being both underfunded and decidedly last-minute, by a 61-39 margin. But also like Castle, Young is getting pretty long in the tooth -- he will turn 80 just weeks after the 2010 elections, and he hasn't had to run a real race in eons. Perhaps the idea of actually needing to run a full-geared campaign will be enough to nudge the old crumb-bum into retirement.

James L. :: FL-10: Charlie Justice Will Run Against Young
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Too bad.
I was hoping for Phoenix Wright.

OBJECTION!!


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
What about Dick Swett?
With a name like that, one has to wonder if his parents hated him.

[ Parent ]
It's the great election, Charlie Brown.
Too bad he lost it again.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Excellent
It was reported today that Young didn't raise any money at all in the first quarter and has $412,000 CoH.  Retirement?  http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Perhaps this convinced Justice to take the plunge?  Regardless, good move by Justice as I see one of three things happening:  (1) Young retires and Justice likely wins; (2) Justice beats Young; or (3) Justice loses despite running a good campaign and sets himself up as the front runner for 2012 if Young retires.


What an awesome name
I can't think of a single politician with a more kick-ass name than Charlie Justice.  There are a whole bunch with just awful names, though, like Congressmen Boehner and Weiner.

Hopefully Young will decide that 40 years in Congress is a nice even number to retire on.


You left out the best one
Congressman Norm Dicks (WA-06)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
When is Dick Trickle running for office?
The campaign writes itself. As does it's opposition.

Regardless of his positions, I'd have a hard time NOT checking the box next to "Dick Trickle" on a ballot.  


[ Parent ]
oh gawd.
trickle-down economics...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
hahaha
I would have to vote for him, just as I would have to vote for Senator Crap-o... I don't care how he says its said, and also, Butch Otter, I mean, come on... Something kinda hot about Butch Otter!!! Maybe its the gay man in me. haha

[ Parent ]
There is nothing hot about Butch Otter
Trust the gay man in ME. Not an attractive older man.

[ Parent ]
I can't believe I forgot to mention my favorite
Dianne Feinstein's 2006 opponent, Dick Mountjoy.  


[ Parent ]
Narrowly defeating
Richard Almondjoy in the primary.

The vote really depended on if Republicans felt like a nut that day.


[ Parent ]
Sometimes you feel like a nut,
Sometimes you don't.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Is it possible to replace both Youngs with young'uns?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
and he's so young
This'll push C.W. Young into retirement. He's already raised nothing and hasn't run a real campaign in decades. He's too old to be campaigning and fundraising too much. Surely he'll want to call it wuits by now? What's there left to fight for? He sees he's in the minority and it'll like be that way for a time to come.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

I think so too
Young will probably retire.

[ Parent ]
Would that set up a Dem primary?
If Young retires, are there other Dems who would throw their hats into the ring?

Or is Justice the best of a short bench in this district?


[ Parent ]
The field will clear for Justice
He's by far and away the best known and best overall candidate.  I believe there are a couple state house Democrats in the 10th district, but it's likely they will run for Justice's vacated state Senate seat rather than in the Dem primary for FL-10.

[ Parent ]
Big score
Great to see these people stepping up early.  Despite our massive gains over the past two cycles, there are still a bunch of low fruit hanging, just waiting to be picked off.  In particular, Republicans in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, and especially California represent districts that are sliding out from under them.

So far, I really only see maybe five or six vulnerable seats on our side, all freshmen elected in tough districts.  Of course this will change with retirements, but it's a good place for us to be at this point.  There's at least 20 or so Republicans that I already see in difficult positions, and they will probably face crippling retirements again.


What Justice is thinking
I believe his strategy here is to push Young into retirement.  In a Young vs. Justice race I'd stll give Young a slight edge due to incumbancy, but Justice knows Young is very close to retirement.  Even if he challenges Young and loses in 2010 he'll probably just run again in 2012 when Young does retire.

Plus there is next to nothig republicans can do to gerrymander this seat in 2012.  It's already drawn about as republican as it can get.


For what it's worth
Justice currently holds slightly republican-leaning state Senate seat in Florida up for re-election in 2010.  Justice vacating that seat is going to set off a very tough open seat fight.  Though it really doesn't make much difference since Republicans have a massive 26-14 state senate edge.

Yeah
That could very well be another state Senate seat gone, but yeah, Democrats have no chance of any role in the next redistricting process unless we win the Governor's race, which of course requires Crist running for the Senate. Still, hopefully the Democrats can recruit someone to hold that seat. If they can pick up at least a couple Senate seats, we could have some influence in the Senate on important issues.

Anyway, Justice is a great candidate and I'm sure his fundraising will make Young wish he was laying back on a tropical island in retirement.


[ Parent ]
I'm of two minds about this
Either Charlie Justice is giving up a competitive State Senate seat we'd like to hold for a kamikaze run against a true institution of Florida politics, or this is like Ron Klein versus Clay Shaw in 2006 (up-and-coming state legislator takes down aging giant of the Florida congressional delegation in one of the most expensive House races in the country).

Which way this goes down will depend on how vigorously Young can campaign, how much money Justice can raise, how many Pinellas County Obamican types (and there are many of them who are registered Republicans but have been voting Dem for President since Clinton) finally abandon Young, and overall how strong a case Justice can lay out.

Of course, Young is nearing 80 years old and may retire, especially if polls show a close race, but his statement about the matter sounds like someone planning to run again, or at least someone who wants people to assume he'll run again. Might he pull a ballot switcheroo with his younger (fiftysomething) wife right around the filing deadline?

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.


That was always the fear
That Young would sneak out at the last minute and get his wife to file to run against only a token Dem.  This basically prevents that from happening.

And it's far from a kamikaze run.  Justice is very well known and respected in the district.  Hackworth was and underfunded stiff for a candidate and still got around 40% of the vote last year.  Young hasn't had a real race in... well, probably ever.  Justice has run and won many close races in swing state house and senate races.  He's the real deal.

I still think Young is probably 70/30 leaning towards retirement.


[ Parent ]
justice and carney
in 2 days. awesome!  i was just reading rothenburg's analysis of the dccc employing the "retirement strategy" in the last couple of cycles.  basically either hitting senior republicans in blueing districts with ads or, even better, recruiting tough opponents which cause them to rethink another run for congress.

nice work, van hollen and team!


The Repubs really screwed up
by not employing the "retirement" strategy in the early part of this decade against Blue Dog Democrats in the South.

[ Parent ]
Please elaborate
what is this strategy?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Pushing incumbents into retirement
With the threat of a strong challenge the likes of which they haven't faced in years.

[ Parent ]
True
Everyone just assumed districts like Cramer's (AL-05) would go republicans when he retired.  Republicans would have benefitted from targetting him years ago, but they didn't.  And look what happened, we held the open seat.

[ Parent ]
Didn't Charlie Justice run before?
Like, in 2006 or so?

And yes, that is freaking awesome name.  Like, automatic law-and-order credentials or something.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


No
This is hir first run for U.S. House.  He ran and won a close race for State Senate in 2006 in a republican-leaning district.  Before that he served 3 or 4 terms in the state House, also winning in a swing/lean GOP district.

[ Parent ]
I remember seeing his name before on Facebook
involving U.S. House races.  Maybe was considering FL-10 in 2006 or 2008, but ultimately didn't run.

Also, what are our chances of holding his FL State Senate seat?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
DCCC tried to recruit him in 2008.


[ Parent ]
I'll have to look into it
I'm almost positive we have at least 2 Democratic state Reps in the district.  Several of our pickups in the Florida House in 2006 came in Pinellas County.  I believe we also picked up quite a few Pinellas County Council seats since 2006.

Assuming one or more of those commissioners or state reps will run for the open State Senate seat we might have a 50/50 shot.  The area is trending Democratic.  

A possible republican candidate for the state senate district would be the woman Justice defeated for the seat in 2006, Kim Berfield.  Yes... she has obvious advantages as you can see from her pic.
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/Ca...


[ Parent ]
Hell-oooooo, Nurse!


26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Hell-ooooo, marketer?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Why
is he giving up his state Senate to do this?  Why not have done this in a presidential year?  Maybe this is the year then he's going to retire and Justice knows it?

Even if he loses
He knows Young can't stay for more than one more term.  He'll just turn around and run again in 2012 if he loses.

And as others have speculated, there have always been rumors he would drop out just before filing deadline to allow his wife to run.  If we don't have a good candidate and that happens we might not get this seat for a long time.


[ Parent ]
Dunedin Mayor Hackworth
Completely forgot about him.  He may not make a good candidate for Congress but I wouldn't be surprised if he ran for the state Senate seat Justice is leaving behind.  It overlaps Dunedin.

How did he do last time?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Ow,
maybe?  How much did he raise/spend?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
He wasn't really competitive in any way


[ Parent ]
Raised and spent very little
If ya ask me it wasn't a serious run.  He probably just ran to raise his name ID.  He would still be a decent candidate for State Senate.  Though we would probably be better served running a state rep.

[ Parent ]

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