With retirement fever becoming an epidemic on Capitol Hill this week, I thought it would be useful to take a look back at how the open seat picture unfolded in the 2006 election cycle and compare it to where we stand today.
At this point in 2005, Republicans were dealing with nine open seats of an eventual total of twenty. Interestingly, only two of these nine were straight-up retirements, whereas the bulk of these early announcements were made by House members seeking a promotion to a statewide office. While the rumors and speculation are rampant, only five Republicans have announced retirements this year:
However, of these five, four are "straight-up" retirements, while the fifth (Duncan Hunter) may as well be, too. Additionally, retirements by Rick Renzi (AZ-01) and Ralph Regula (OH-16) seem all but official, and many are convinced that Dave Hobson (OH-07) will throw in the towel, as well. I don't expect that we'll see too many Republican House members (if any) bothering to try their hand at statewide races next year, but I do expect, with the shocking retirement announcements of Pryce and Pickering, that many more Republican members will test the winds during the August recess and make similar decisions (if not announcements) around Labor Day. I believe that this rings especially true when one considers that most the "true" retirements of 2006 (i.e. the desire to end one's political career) came in the fall/winter of '05 and '06. And in a Presidential cycle, perhaps many potential retirees will feel obligated to give their would-be successors more of an opportunity to build their campaigns before the media cycle is utterly dominated by the top of the ticket.
