The Allentown Morning Call has the scoop:
U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach has alerted top officials at the National Republican Congressional Committee that he’ll run for governor next year in lieu of a reelection effort in Congress.
The decision is expected in an announcement Tuesday. It sets up a GOP primary battle for governor of Pennsylvania between the four-term suburban Philadelphia lawmaker and Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett and leaves the Republican Party facing a battle to retain a congressional seat that Gerlach has held since the district was drawn at the turn of the decade.
A “GOP source” is confirming the news with Roll Call. This will be a pretty hot open-seat battle; while the GOP does have some bench strength in this district, the ground has rapidly shifted from underneath them on the Presidential level. In 2000, Al Gore barely nosed Bush with 49% of the vote in this CD, while John Kerry bumped that margin up to 52-48 four years later. According to an SSP analysis of the results from last November, Barack Obama blew the door wide open, scoring a ridiculous 58-41 win over McCain while Gerlach won another term with a much narrower margin than anyone expected against an opponent with severe name recognition issues. It’s no wonder that Gerlach is pulling on the ripcord after so many election nights filled with heartburn.
The Democrats’ early recruit, former Philadelphia Inquirer editorial board member Doug Pike, has an early fundraising advantage over the field, having raked in a reported $500K in the second quarter and possessing a substantial amount of personal wealth to supplement that haul in the future… but whether or not that will scare off other potential Democratic candidates in this CD remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the GOP’s leading recruit, state Rep. Curt Schroder, only raised $20K during this exploratory phase of his campaign. Presumably he’ll kick things into gear now that he’s no longer fundraising for an officially-hypothetical race, but that’s still not an impressive way to christen one’s campaign.
UPDATE (David): This also sets up a Republican primary between Gerlach and AG Tom Corbett. Can Gerlach actually win against the more conservative Corbett, given how many moderates have left the PA GOP?
is going to be a fascinating primary battle. I haven’t lived in PA for a bit, by my recollection is that Gerlach doesn’t have anywhere near the statewide name recognition that Corbett does. I also wonder how the wingnut base would react to Gerlach’s “moderate” voting record in the House.
This should be a good one, and Gerlach is no slam-dunk to be a nominee. We could get a top-tier open seat for free!
Who do we have for Guv running?
Who else could step up besides Pike?
Who do we have for Guv running?
Who else could step up besides Pike?
are going to have a contested primary, and give us a shot at the 6th.
We get a slightly easier run at the governor’s mansion, and get an open seat in a D+4 district where the best candidate is on our side.
Couldn’t have worked out any better. It looks like we’ve got good shots at pickups in a lot of places now, PA-6, IL-10 now that Kirk is out, DE-1 assuming Castle bolts, LA-2, etc, etc. It’s good to have these because we’re probably gonna lose a few tough ones like AL-2, TN-4, FL-24, and ID-1 (though Minnick’s approvals are good enough that he might be able to squeak through) I can’t even think of what the Idaho legislature would do to him in redistricting though, an R+20 or greater district maybe?