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PA-Gov, PA-06: Gerlach to Run for Governor

by: James L.

Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 9:29 AM EDT

The Allentown Morning Call has the scoop:

U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach has alerted top officials at the National Republican Congressional Committee that he'll run for governor next year in lieu of a reelection effort in Congress.
The decision is expected in an announcement Tuesday. It sets up a GOP primary battle for governor of Pennsylvania between the four-term suburban Philadelphia lawmaker and Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett and leaves the Republican Party facing a battle to retain a congressional seat that Gerlach has held since the district was drawn at the turn of the decade.

A "GOP source" is confirming the news with Roll Call. This will be a pretty hot open-seat battle; while the GOP does have some bench strength in this district, the ground has rapidly shifted from underneath them on the Presidential level. In 2000, Al Gore barely nosed Bush with 49% of the vote in this CD, while John Kerry bumped that margin up to 52-48 four years later. According to an SSP analysis of the results from last November, Barack Obama blew the door wide open, scoring a ridiculous 58-41 win over McCain while Gerlach won another term with a much narrower margin than anyone expected against an opponent with severe name recognition issues. It's no wonder that Gerlach is pulling on the ripcord after so many election nights filled with heartburn.

The Democrats' early recruit, former Philadelphia Inquirer editorial board member Doug Pike, has an early fundraising advantage over the field, having raked in a reported $500K in the second quarter and possessing a substantial amount of personal wealth to supplement that haul in the future... but whether or not that will scare off other potential Democratic candidates in this CD remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the GOP's leading recruit, state Rep. Curt Schroder, only raised $20K during this exploratory phase of his campaign. Presumably he'll kick things into gear now that he's no longer fundraising for an officially-hypothetical race, but that's still not an impressive way to christen one's campaign.

UPDATE (David): This also sets up a Republican primary between Gerlach and AG Tom Corbett. Can Gerlach actually win against the more conservative Corbett, given how many moderates have left the PA GOP?

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-06 | PA-Gov

James L. :: PA-Gov, PA-06: Gerlach to Run for Governor

Tags: 2010 House Open Seat Watch, PA-Gov, PA-06, Jim Gerlach, Dan Pike, (All Tags)

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PA-Gov, PA-06: Gerlach to Run for Governor | 22 comments

Corbett v. Gerlach

is going to be a fascinating primary battle. I haven't lived in PA for a bit, by my recollection is that Gerlach doesn't have anywhere near the statewide name recognition that Corbett does. I also wonder how the wingnut base would react to Gerlach's "moderate" voting record in the House.

This should be a good one, and Gerlach is no slam-dunk to be a nominee. We could get a top-tier open seat for free!

by: greg91020 @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 08:46:47 AM CDT

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Who do we have for Guv running?

Who else could step up besides Pike?

by: Tekzilla @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 08:59:42 AM CDT

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Who do we have for Guv running?

Who else could step up besides Pike?

by: Tekzilla @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 09:00:54 AM CDT

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The D-Establishment has rallied around Pike already

And is 500K in 3 months not good enough for you? Haha

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:12:43 AM CDT

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I hope theres still a serious primary, though

As this is a seat that is likely to flip and stay with the Dems for a long time.

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 23:47:25 PM CDT

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For Governor:

Allegheny County Exec. Dan Oronato
State Auditor Jack Wagner
some millionaire from Philadelphia

by: corran horn @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:19:25 AM CDT

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Governor and PA-06

Unfortunatly are bench for Governor is lackluster - Allegheny County CEO Dan Onorato and State Auditor are our best bets. '04 Senate nominee Joe Hoeffel may run as well, but none of the candidates are that inspiring, to say the least. Still, we have a chance to hold the seat.

As for PA-06, Doug Pike is in the running. Bob Casey's brother Chris Casey may also make a go for it. '02 nominee Dan Wofford is another possibility.

by: DFLer @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:23:00 AM CDT

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Don Onorato is very inspiring

he carries a solid base in western PA. Its very simply poli logic, Republicans can't win statewide without carrying that region, just can't nada, no. The central isn't enough. Onorato is only tied due to a large number of undecideds in the Philly area, however, that area is going to back any Democrat anyway giving a solid shot at it.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 12:12:01 PM CDT

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I wonder who could run for Corbett's AG seat.

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 23:48:26 PM CDT

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Not sure

Thing is, the elections for PA downballot offices (AG, Treasurer, Auditor) are held in presidential years, not midterm years.

If Corbett loses, he will be term-limited, and the office will be open in 2012. If he wins, he'll get to appoint his successor.

by: corran horn @ Wed Jul 15, 2009 at 12:35:48 PM CDT

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I'm glad that the Republicans

are going to have a contested primary, and give us a shot at the 6th.

by: andgarden @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 09:09:51 AM CDT

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A shot?

It would be embarrassing not to win here. With the Cao and Kirk seats, if Castle gives it up then that really should be +4 seats whatever the environment. I've seen a few rumblings lately that some people think the GOP might have a shot at taking the House back next year. No way! Say for the sake of argument they hold New York 23. They are not getting anywhere near a 44 seat pickup no matter how the economy looks. I'm not worried at all.

by: conspiracy @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:02:10 AM CDT

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I wont be worried for quite some time

Our incumbents in these tough seats will lock it down and probably keep them for awhile while the seats we have that we should be expecting to lose at some point kinda soon (although Griffith holding AL-5 seems to nullify the notion that we'll see lose all of our Southern seats.)

by: Andrew @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 20:37:55 PM CDT

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this is great

We get a slightly easier run at the governor's mansion, and get an open seat in a D+4 district where the best candidate is on our side.

Couldn't have worked out any better. It looks like we've got good shots at pickups in a lot of places now, PA-6, IL-10 now that Kirk is out, DE-1 assuming Castle bolts, LA-2, etc, etc. It's good to have these because we're probably gonna lose a few tough ones like AL-2, TN-4, FL-24, and ID-1 (though Minnick's approvals are good enough that he might be able to squeak through) I can't even think of what the Idaho legislature would do to him in redistricting though, an R+20 or greater district maybe?

by: StephenCLE @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 09:33:34 AM CDT

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TN-4?

Lincoln Davis won last year by over 20 points. Am I missing something here?

by: generalleeferd @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 09:49:31 AM CDT

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Possibly

the OP thinks that Davis was still planning a run for Governor, but he isn't. He's running again, and should be fine.

by: SC @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:30:23 AM CDT

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FL-24

Is Kosmas really that vulnerable? I do admit she did knock off Tom "Apologizing for my corruption" Feeney, but it looks like Republicans are going to head to a very divisive primary.

by: ehstronghold @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:39:15 AM CDT

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At this point

I'm more concerned about Alan Grayson.

by: James L. @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:16:58 AM CDT

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really?

the demographics in that district are corroding udner the Republicns feet faster than any other one I could think of besides maybe one or two Cali districts and maybe a Texas district, I mean in one cycle it shifted 12 points and minority is still skrocketing and Orlando is becoming a modern ideolopolis political entity; spreading its more urbanized and liberalized political culture over into its suburbs.

While Kossuma shouldn't be in trouble because her district is not all that Republican anymore and trends more Democratic every year, and because she is such a solid campaigner with a solid base and fractured field of second tier at best opponents, I would still be more worried about her than Grayson, especially since his toughest opponents are under indictment now.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 12:09:08 PM CDT

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sorry, Kosmas, a very bad typo there

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 12:09:43 PM CDT

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It's a good swing district for us

But Grayson is not making life easy for himself lately. He has time to turn things around, and maybe the GOP's candidates will explode on the launching pad, but man, almost every local news article on Grayson for the past several months has not put the ex-beardo in a favorable light. He seems to enjoy controversy -- not a quality you like to see in a frosh incumbent occupying a swing district (albeit a district that is swinging D).

by: James L. @ Wed Jul 15, 2009 at 01:34:27 AM CDT

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I agree

Grayson is the larger concern for me too, as it seems he may receive a tough challenger and the Orlando Sentinel hasn't been giving him the best press. He's going to need to turn out new voters from the 2008 election, particularly the many Puerto Ricans moving into the district. Kosmas is likely to have a well-funded challenger, as well, however I think she's a good fit for her district and she can certainly raise a significant amount of campaign money. I do not think Republicans will be able to build a strong campaign message against her.

by: Progressive America @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 13:08:43 PM CDT

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PA-Gov, PA-06: Gerlach to Run for Governor | 22 comments