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2010 House Open Seat Watch (6/19/09)

by: James L.

Fri Jun 19, 2009 at 7:56 AM EDT


It's been a while since we posted our last 2010 House Open Seat Watch, so our crack research team down at SSP Labs took extra time in compiling this latest entry of the Watch. Special acknowledgment must be given to SSP Forensic Open Seat Analyst DavidNYC for making sure that no stone was left unturned.

So once again, we've compiled a list of confirmed and potential retirements/vacancies in the House, as well as a list of seats that we've removed from our watch list (which is available below the fold). Once again, please note that "age" in our charts reflects the incumbent's age on election day, 2010. Blue boxes indicate a new entry (or an incumbent who has been shuffled between categories). All tables are now sortable - just click on any column header to sort.

Here we go:

Definite Retirements/Vacancies:

District Incumbent Party PVI Notes
AL-07 Artur Davis D D+18 Running for Governor
CA-10 Ellen Tauscher D D+11 Appointed to State Dept.
CA-32 Hilda Solis D D+15 Appointed Labor Sec'y
FL-12 Adam Putnam R R+6 Running for Ag Comm'r
FL-17 Kendrick Meek D D+34 Running for Senate
GA-09 Nathan Deal R R+28 Running for Governor
HI-01 Neil Abercrombie D D+11 Running for Governor
KS-01 Jerry Moran R R+23 Running for Senate
KS-04 Todd Tiahrt R R+14 Running for Senate
MI-02 Peter Hoekstra R R+7 Running for Governor
MO-07 Roy Blunt R R+17 Running for Senate
NH-02 Paul Hodes D D+3 Running for Senate
NY-23 John McHugh R R+1 Appointed Sec'y of Army
OK-05 Mary Fallin R R+13 Running for Governor
SC-03 Gresham Barrett R R+17 Running for Governor
TN-03 Zach Wamp R R+13 Running for Governor

Only one new open seat for our list this time, and open seat fans can thank a Democratic operative named Barack Obama for making it happen through the appointment of upstate New York Rep. John McHugh to be the nation's newest Secretary of the Army. We can probably expect to see more retirements later this summer; the Congressional recess in August is a particularly popular time for sitting House members to take stock of their lives and make decisions on the future of their DC careers. So who might be clearing out? Perhaps some of these representatives will be the next ones to hang up their spurs:

Potential Retirements/Vacancies:

District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AK-AL Don Young R R+13 77 Age/Legal issues/Possible primary
AZ-03 John Shadegg R R+9 61 Botched retirement attempt in 2008
CA-24 Elton Gallegly R R+4 66 Botched retirement attempt in 2006
CA-36 Jane Harman D D+12 65 Scandal/Primary challenge
CA-44 Ken Calvert R R+6 57 Primary challenge
DE-AL Mike Castle R D+7 71 Possible Senate run/Strong challenge
FL-02 Allen Boyd D R+6 65 Primary challenge (Declined Senate run)
FL-03 Corrine Brown D D+18 63 Possible Senate run
FL-10 Bill Young R R+1 79 Age/Strong challenge
IA-03 Leonard Boswell D D+1 76 Age/health
IA-05 Steve King R R+9 61 Possible gubernatorial run
IL-06 Peter Roskam R D+0 49 Possible Senate run
IL-07 Danny Davis D D+35 69 Possible Senate run
IL-10 Mark Kirk R D+6 51 Possible Senate/gubernatorial run
IN-05 Dan Burton R R+17 72 Primary challenge
LA-03 Charlie Melancon D R+12 63 Possible Senate run
MD-04 Donna Edwards D D+31 52 Possible primary challenge
MI-01 Bart Stupak D R+3 58 Possible gubernatorial run
MI-08 Mike Rogers R R+2 47 Possible gubernatorial run
MI-10 Candice Miller R R+5 56 Possible gubernatorial run
MI-12 Sander Levin D D+12 79 Age/Primary challenge
MN-06 Michele Bachmann R R+7 54 Possible gubernatorial run
MO-01 Lacy Clay D D+27 54 Possible Senate run
NC-02 Bob Etheridge D R+2 69 Possible Senate run
NC-06 Howard Coble R R+18 79 Age
NC-07 Mike McIntyre D R+5 54 Possible Senate run
NJ-02 Frank LoBiondo R D+1 64 Possible Lt. Gov. run
NV-02 Dean Heller R R+5 50 Possible gubernatorial/Senate run
NY-03 Peter King R R+4 66 Possible Senate run
NY-14 Carolyn Maloney D D+26 62 Possible Senate run
NY-16 Jose Serrano D D+41 67 Possible Senate run
OR-02 Greg Walden R R+10 53 Possible gubernatorial run
OR-04 Peter DeFazio D D+2 63 Possible gubernatorial run
PA-06 Jim Gerlach R D+4 55 Possible gubernatorial/Senate run
PA-07 Joe Sestak D D+3 58 Possible Senate run
PA-11 Paul Kanjorski D D+4 73 Age/Possible primary challenge
SC-01 Henry Brown R R+10 74 Age/Primary challenge
SC-04 Bob Inglis R R+15 51 Primary challenge
SD-AL Stephanie Herseth D R+9 39 Possible gubernatorial run
TN-01 Phil Roe R R+21 65 Possible primary challenge
TN-09 Steve Cohen D D+23 61 Primary challenge
TX-03 Sam Johnson R R+14 80 Age
TX-04 Ralph Hall R R+21 87 Age
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez D R+4 63 Primary challenge
UT-02 Jim Matheson D R+15 50 Possible gubernatorial run

See anything we missed? A list of incumbents whose names we've removed from our Open Seat Watch is available below the fold.

James L. :: 2010 House Open Seat Watch (6/19/09)
Off the Watch List:

District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AL-01 Jo Bonner R R+14 50 Declined gubernatorial run
CA-31 Xavier Becerra D D+29 52 Declined USTR/Commerce Sec'y
CT-03 Rosa DeLauro D D+9 67 Considered for Labor Sec'y
FL-13 Vern Buchanan R R+6 59 Declined Senate/Gubernatorial run
FL-14 Connie Mack R R+11 43 Declined Senate run
FL-19 Robert Wexler D D+15 49 Declined Senate run
FL-20 Debbie Wasserman Schultz D D+13 44 Declined Senate run
FL-22 Ron Klein D D+1 53 Declined Senate run
FL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart R R+5 49 Never expressed interest in Senate run
GA-01 Jack Kingston R R+16 55 Declined gubernatorial run
GA-03 Lynn Westmoreland R R+19 60 Declined gubernatorial run
GA-08 Jim Marshall D R+10 62 Never expressed interest in gubernatorial run
IL-09 Jan Schakowsky D D+20 66 Declined Senate run
IL-13 Judy Biggert R R+1 73 Seeking re-election
KS-03 Dennis Moore D R+3 64 Declined Senate run/Won't retire
KY-01 Ed Whitfield R R+15 67 Declined Senate Run
KY-06 Ben Chandler D R+9 51 Declined Senate Run
MD-06 Roscoe Bartlett R R+13 84 Seeking re-election
MO-08 Jo Ann Emerson R R+15 60 Declined Senate run
NC-11 Heath Shuler D R+6 38 Declined Senate run
NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter D R+0 57 Declined Senate run
NY-02 Steve Israel D D+4 52 Declined Senate run
NY-04 Carolyn McCarthy D D+6 66 Declined Senate run
NY-09 Anthony Weiner D D+5 46 Declined mayoral run
OH-08 John Boehner R R+14 60 Averted primary challenge
OH-17 Tim Ryan D D+12 37 Declined Senate/Lt. Gov. run
OH-18 Zack Space D R+7 49 Declined Senate run
OK-04 Tom Cole R R+18 61 Declined gubernatorial run
PA-08 Patrick Murphy D D+2 37 Never expressed interest in Senate run
PA-13 Allyson Schwartz D D+7 62 Declined Senate run
TN-04 Lincoln Davis D R+13 67 Declined gubernatorial run
TX-10 Mike McCaul R R+10 48 Declined AG run
TX-17 Chet Edwards D R+20 58 Declined VA Sec'y
VA-10 Frank Wolf R R+2 71 Seeking re-election
WI-01 Paul Ryan R R+2 40 Declined Senate run

Resolved vacancies.

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John Boehner (D)
Getting a little Fox Newsy around here...

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

I don't think Steve King needs watching
on this list. Several western Iowa Republican are already planning to get in the governor's race--I've heard nothing to indicate that King is seriously looking at it.

Looks like Melancon is running against Vitter
Told everyone
we're going to win this seat. We just needed a good candidate to run. Time to adjust the ratings for LA-Sen.

[ Parent ]
There's no way Donna Edwards has a R+3 district.


and no way
Maloney's is only D+6 or is that a typo as well?  (D+16 maybe)

[ Parent ]
I think you overzealously fixed that
As now Carolyn McCarthy's seat says D+26 as well.  

[ Parent ]
Ah
Looks like when I originally published, I had the PVIs for those two seats swapped. Thanks for the eagle eye.

[ Parent ]
Lacy Clay
I think the Democratic field has pretty much solidified with Robin Carnahan; I doubt Lacy Clay wants to mess that up and almost certainly lose a primary. Plus that dairy you linked was posted in February.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

Just being complete
I don't think he runs, either.

[ Parent ]
The PVI sort needs a little work
sorts it by the first number not ascending order.

(aka D+1,D+11,D+2,D+24,D+3,D+9,R+0,R+1,R+15,R+3, etc)


Yep
That's a "feature," not a bug, in the sense that the javascript which handles the sorting is limited in what it can do. I don't know how to program in javascript, but if you do, by all means take a crack at improving the underlying script.

[ Parent ]
Here you go
I added PVI sorting support to your sort script:

http://github.com/bombino/sort...

Enjoy!

[note: I tested this on this page and it seems to work, if for whatever reason you have problems, just roll back to your old version]


[ Parent ]
Wow!
That is frackin' rad! Talk about answering the call! I just implemented the new script and it looks like it works perfectly. You truly rock.

[ Parent ]

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