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CA-10: Tauscher to State?

by: James L.

Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 9:20 PM EDT


From the WaPo:

Word is that Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.), chair of the House Armed Services Committee's subcommittee on strategic forces and a staunch superdelegate for presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton, is in line for a top post at the State Department, most likely for the undersecretary for arms control and nonproliferation slot.

It had been widely reported that highly regarded arms control guru Robert Einhorn, who had been assistant secretary for arms control in the Clinton administration, was penciled in to move up to that post, but we're hearing he has turned it down for personal reasons. And Secretary of State Clinton did, after all, win the California primary.

Well, I don't really see what Hillary's California primary win has to do with any of this, but that's neither here nor there. Assuming Tauscher is tapped for this gig, we'll have another California special election on our hands (Hilda Solis' vacancy in CA-32 being the other). While Tauscher used to hold a competitive district in the '90s, her CD was redrawn after the most recent census to include more Democratic turf -- on top of that, the 10th CD has taken a sharp turn in the Democratic direction over the last pair of Presidential elections. According to SSP's Prez-by-CD analysis, Obama carried the 10th district by a 65-33 margin, a significant jump from the 59-40 Kerry win here four years earlier (and the 55-41 performance by Gore in 2000).

If a special election happens here, Team Blue will be in pretty good shape. Anyone have any ideas as to who may run?

(Hat-tip: mikeel)

UPDATE: Roll Call says that it's a done deal:

Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.) will be tapped for a top State Department post, sources with knowledge of the pending nomination said.
James L. :: CA-10: Tauscher to State?
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CA-10: Tauscher to State? | 51 comments
Regardless of who wins
Good riddance to Tauscher, she's been one of the problem members on the House side and her district is blue enough that we should get a strong progressive in there.

Visit Election Inspection for first-rate political analysis.
she hasn't been that big
of a problem and you have to understand she beat a conservative two term incumbent in 1996 to represent a swingish northern CA district. She's been relatively good and better than most southern dems. It really isn't her fault that State Dems overcompensated enormously on hers and Mike Thompson's districts for that matter. They turned them into super-Democratic districts when either could easily have won just slightly adjusted districts.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Tauscher sucks for CA
The 1996 district no longer exists.  The current district is far more Democratic and far less swingy.  In fact, in the four years between 2004 and 2008, CA Democrats gained a net total of more than 800,000 registered voters on CA Republicans.  In the two elections, CA Democrats gained one House seat (out of 53), not much bang for the buck.  One of the reasons: Democratic seats are now safe Democratic seats.

Southern Democrats are a totally different creature, or at least some are. She is not a southern Democrat.  The district has swung sharply left.  She is starting to "get it" but is not a throughly dependable vote.  If named, any replacement will be better.  Probably much better.

[ Parent ]
I completly agree with you...
... that Tauscher is a huge disappointment and I can't wait for someone more progressive. But I think what the above commenter was saying is that Tauscher was electing at a time her district was swingy and thus more fitted for someone like her, and it's not her fault that state Democrats redistricted her into a very progressive district, thus wasting a lot of Democratic precincts to protect someone who isn't very liberal.
[ Parent ]
It's a fair point
And I think that can be said of quite of a few of the California Democratic representatives. With that being said, it doesn't change the fact that getting rid of her and putting someone in who is more in touch with the current manifestation of the district (ie someone who is more progressive) is still a worthy endeavor.

Visit Election Inspection for first-rate political analysis.
[ Parent ]
indeed,
and I hope CA Democrats undertake a more aggressive redistricting plan this time around, but if the past is any indication, (including their fierce opposition to Schwarzenegger's plan to put redistricting under the control of a bipartisan panel of judges.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
IIRC Tauscher herself was angry that her district was made so Democratic.

[ Parent ]
no true
she was upset that the CA legislature removed Livermore Lab from her district. She is the only Congressperson representing two federal defense laboratories in her district. This is revisionist history as she was only winning with 53-54% before redistricting and spending millions of her own money. Do you honestly think she wanted to continue doing that instead of winning with 60+% which is what happened after she got her new district?  
[ Parent ]
Um yeah
http://www.google.com/search?h...

Whether she should have been mad or not, she was livid, and it is pretty clear Burton and Pelosi did not care one little bit that she was mad.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

[ Parent ]
You caught me.
I am part of a vast conspiracy to revise redistricting history. There is no chance that I was simply wrong. I was clearly acting maliciously.
[ Parent ]
But seriously, let me explain
that I remember reading in the almanac of American politics that some moderate California Democrat complained that her new, more Democratic district, didn't fit her profile. I must have confused her with the other conservative female Democratic Representative from California whose name escapes me right now.
[ Parent ]
Jane Harman
and I thought you were right, too.  And what the hey, I have a copy of one of the almanacs right next to me!

Bauh, Kanamit is indeed correct!!!

From 2004 Almanac,

"While most Democrats would welcome getting a more Democratic district, Tauscher complained and accused other Democrats of giving her a district where her moderate voting record would be a liability..."
  Pg 193.
[ Parent ]
and
I was gonna step up for you earlier because I definitely remembered reading that at some point in my life but then I kind of assumed we just both read it here on this blog and some other person just probably made some shit up or that we couldnt prove it.

Didnt realize it'd be in a book I own!  $5 off Ebay, hell yes.

[ Parent ]
Thanks

[ Parent ]
And I think her complaint is completely legitimate
assuming that she is in fact rather conservative in terms of her voting record.

Not only is she vulnerable to a primary from the left, but she's also not as representative of her district as she used to be.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

[ Parent ]
More confirmation it was Tauscher
from the Washington Monthly, which may have been linked to above:

Ellen Tauscher (California)
Who: Millionaire, former Wall Street stockbroker, model New Democrat.
Misdeed: Being the only Californian to back Hoyer for minority whip.
Punishment: In 2002, Tauscher claimed Pelosi pushed California redistricters to make her seat more liberal, opening her up to a possible primary challenge. Pelosi ally Joe Burton called Tauscher "full of shit," while Pelosi dismissed the charges as "amateur hour."

http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

It says Joe Burton in the article, but they meant John Burton, who was the State Senate leader in 2002.  It definitely sounds like something John Burton would say;  colorful and direct as always.

[ Parent ]
Not particularly colorful
[ Parent ]
Yes!
Her house seat is safe and anyone would be better than her.
Correct
See my comment above.  The 1996 district no longer exists.
[ Parent ]
Out of curiosity
Who picks these sub-cabinet level positions?  Does Hillary pick the undersecretary or does Obama?
Obama has the final say
technically but he's let Hillary have a very big hand in picking her deputies as part of the deal the camps worked out before she took the job.  
[ Parent ]
CA-10
Won't that be one of the districts that should be weakened a bit in 2012 in order to make McNerney's adjacent district more favorable for him?
Probably
But it was D+9 before, and Obama dominated in California. It can lose a fair bit and still strongly favour any Democrat.
[ Parent ]
Sure
But his district has gotten much better. Obama won in 54-45. We should probably pump him up a bit, but we won't need to redraw it too much.
[ Parent ]
Well I agree
But I'm pretty sure the 11th is the only district in that area of California that needs to be strengthened for Democrats.  the other marginal districts likely to be targeted appear to be in other parts of the state.
[ Parent ]
Might be a subtle way for Obama to get rid of her
If so then clever work on Obama's part
Does Obama make the pick?
Or does the Secretary of the Department (in this case Hillary) make the pick for people working under her?
[ Parent ]
Coming on the heels
of the imbroglio over mortgage cramdown, that was my first thought... by promoting her, decapitate the New Dems and get one of the main people out of the way who's in a position to water down his agenda. (Again, shades of being a great chess player, a la Judd Gregg to Commerce.) Now if only we could find a nice cushy out-of-the-way job for Jim Cooper, now that it looks like we're actually going to move on health care.
[ Parent ]
I'm sure Jim Cooper
would make an excellent ambassador to Australia or something.
[ Parent ]
How sure would we be to keep his seat, though?
According to sicembears's new CPVIs diary, TN-05's CPVI went from D+6.0 to D+0.6 (an R+5.4 movement).  I wonder what its old and new SPVIs are...

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway
[ Parent ]
Please tell me that that was snark
Because if it wasn't, I'm going to have slap you with a fish or something!

In case you are serious, Obama won the district by 13 points (56-43) so I actually like our odds of holding the district.

Visit Election Inspection for first-rate political analysis.

[ Parent ]
Don't slap me with a fish just yet
I was looking at the new CPVI thread.

Assuming you're right (which a quick check of the Swing State Project Presidential Vote by Congressional District list confirms), that means that that's 56-43 in 2008 compared to 53-47 (D+3) versus 52-48 in 2004 compared to 49-51 (D+3).

It's a D+3 district by the SPVI.

Given that this is Tennessee, and this is only D+3, I'd still be careful.  Even Obama's 13-point win might not mean that much, especially if it's a low-turnout special that might see stuff like how the low Black turnout elected Joe Cao.

However, the Wikipedia article says it's only 23.6% Black (probably as of 2000), and says that it's generally trending very fast toward liberal college students and young professionals.  And that the Republicans don't challenge the seat much.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, even though I'd still warn against complacency.  It's not like IL-05 where we'll be running against a completely unviable candidate.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

[ Parent ]
Correction:
It's not like IL-05 where we're as likely to be running against a completely unviable candidate.

Since this is a political site, I should probably cover my rear end.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway

[ Parent ]
Heh, consider your ass thoroughly covered
Although the thing is, the 5th district is mostly the city of Nashville, which is pretty Democratic and liberal (in fact, not only did Obama win this district by 13 points in the general, he also won the district by 15 points in the Super Tuesday primary, and in Tennessee, that means something).

Visit Election Inspection for first-rate political analysis.
[ Parent ]
Possible Replacement
Tom Torlakson would be a good choice to run in this district. He is termed out of the assembly in 2010 and he has already announced his candidacy for California Superintendent of Public Instruction. However, I think he would put that on hold for a chance at this seat. He is a solid progressive and would be an upgrade over Tauscher.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T...

Awesome
dominoes are being very good to us so far minus the Senate seats.

 

Other Possible Replacements
State Senator Mark DeSaulnier is an obvious candidate to run for the seat. He currently represents almost all of the district and is well-known and well-liked in the area.

Other possible candidates include Contra Costa Supervisors Susan Bonilla and Federal Glover and Orinda Councilmember Amy Worth.  

Garamendi
I know Lt. Gov. Garamendi lives in this district but i doubt hed give up ambitions to run for Gov. to run for Congress. Going from Lt. Gov. in CA to being one of like 52 is perhaps a step down.  
[ Parent ]
Depopulate Congress
Why don't we just appoint every Democrat in congress to a position in the executive branch in order to give the Republicans a realistic chance of winning back congress.  No need to hold the 2010 midterms then.
LOL
Tauscher's seat isn't going anywhere, other than possibly more progressive.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
It depends, I guess
If this seat is made less Democatic after redistricting, such as 60-40 Obama, and the representative is more in the mold of a Stark, Woolsey and Lee rather than a Pelosi, Miller or Eshoo then i could see a Republican winning it in the right political environment. I know Pelosi, Miller and Eshoo's voting records arent much less liberal than those first 3 but they are not seen as being 'too far left' like those are. Especially with regards to rhetoric.
[ Parent ]
This is a good one, not like the others
Take someone fine on one issue and problematic on others and give her one-issue responsibilities.

And this is a seat we should win, with a decent progressive too.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

[ Parent ]
This could also be a way
To slow down debate on a DADT repeal, which Tauscher has been spearheading after introducing legislation in this Congress.

She has lots of cosponsors sure, but she's been one of the most vocal advocates. Maybe Obama thinks her advocacy is too outspoken right now, and he and Hillary move her to State...

I kind of feel for Tauscher
Shes blasted by many on the left for being too moderate, but if she were to have moved to the left (after redistricting) shed have been considered, by the center and right, not have much political convictions. Kind of a 'damned if i do, damned if i dont' situation.
She did feel the heat of criticism
I remember back in the last session of Congress there were various lefists groups that wanted to primary her Joe Lieberman style because of her views on foreign policy (i.e Iraq). Well Tauscher must of been freaked out by the talk of it and moved to the left on Iraq a lot.

Oh well it dosen't really matter at this point. Tauscher is gone and let's work to get a progressive in that district? we got any that reside there?

[ Parent ]
Tauscher used to be my Rep
A couple years ago.  She was not a great fit for the district politically but she was ok.  I also worked in the district at this time at a restaurant and some of our better customers who knew me well would tell me stories about her.  Supposedly, she is not the kindest person and her constituent services werent great either.  I cant speak of any direct knowledge, especially after 2006, but take that for what its worth.

Also, as has been mentioned DeSaulnier and Torlakson would be fantastic candidates.  I met DeSaulnier once and he was engaging and personable.  Intuitively, seemed like he possessed the ideal personality for a legislator.  I havent followed his politics closely enough to give a good, practical opinion of DeSaulnier, but I do like Torlakson.  Buchanan is good too but she needs to build her legislative cred in the state legislature so I really dont see her running for this seat, but stranger things have happened.

Looks like DeSaulnier may be in.
A press release from Torlakson says that he's endorsing DeSaulnier for CA-10 and will continue his campaign for Superintendent of Public Instruction.

http://www.bearflagblue.com/20...

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!

[ Parent ]
Superintendent of Public Instruction
Id probably rather be that than be a U.S. Representative from California. Not a bad move. Besides, if he does a good job (if he wins the race, of course) he could always be next in line for Secretary of Education in an Obama admin.  
[ Parent ]
CQ Politics
I noticed that in a CQ Politics article on this potential special election someone was quoted as saying this is a 'conservative Democratic' district. I have the feeling thats inaccurate, though, based on all the comments here about this district and my own feeling of it. But, not blaming CQ, they were only quoting someone.
[ Parent ]
Quite inaccurate, I'd say
It's wealthy as sin, but as long as it contains Livermore and areas of Alameda County, it's not "conservative".  Well, maybe by Bay Area standards.  And if wealth were a consideration alone for conservatism then Marin County and Upper East Side Manhattan should be downright scary.  As it is, they're only scary to the GOP.
[ Parent ]
Yep
Many political analysts seem to think almost all affluent/upper middle class, socially liberal districts are basically fiscally conservative. As if theyre liberal Republican at heart. They dont seem to realize that a good number of the voters, in those districts, actually care more than whats in their own pockets. They care a great deal about the govt helping the working class. People seem to forget that even the real liberal Republicans, way way way back in the day, were actually far from fiscally conservative by todays standards. No one would dare call Lincoln Chafee a fiscal conservative by today's standards. Most of them actually were quite willing to have the govt help the working class. Many moreso than many southern yellow dog Dems.
[ Parent ]
CA-10: Tauscher to State? | 51 comments

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