DE-Sen, DE-AL: Castle Leaning Toward Senate Run or Retirement

It’s starting to look like the DCCC’s power-play of recruiting former Lt. Gov John Carney to run against Mike Castle for Delaware’s at-large House seat may be successful in pushing the aging incumbent out of the House — and possibly into the state’s open seat Senate race instead. From Roll Call:

Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) said Thursday that he’s leaning more toward running for Senate rather than another term in the House, if he decides to run for Congress again in 2010.

In an interview on Capitol Hill, Castle also acknowledged that several GOP Senators, including John McCain (Ariz.), have been pushing him in recent weeks to make the move to the other side of Capitol Hill. He said a final decision on his 2010 plans would likely have to come by early summer “at the latest.”

It seems that since Castle figures he’s going to get the race of his lifetime, he’s decided that if he’s going to run again in 2010 at all, he might as well go out with a bang by trying his hand at the Senate:

Castle said that he met last month with Carney, whom he considers a friend, and knew at that point that the former lieutenant governor was planning on jumping into the House race.

At that meeting Castle told Carney “there’s probably a better chance I’ll run for the Senate than the House. [But] I said there’s a chance I won’t run at all.”

While Castle believes he can beat Carney – a recent poll showed Castle winning a head-to-head contest – the Delaware Congressman said the race would represent his toughest challenge since his first election in 1992 against another former lieutenant governor, S.B. Woo (D).

While this news would seem to push DE-AL just shy of Joe Cao’s seat in Louisiana on the flip index, Castle’s entry in the Senate race would create an instantly competitive contest. A recent PPP poll had Castle leading Democrat Beau Biden by 44-36 for the open seat.

In other words, the DCCC’s gain could end up being the DSCC’s headache.

40 thoughts on “DE-Sen, DE-AL: Castle Leaning Toward Senate Run or Retirement”

  1. and this would Beau Biden’s chance to really prove himself.

    The way I see it progressive Democrats are going to pick up several seats in states like New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Ohio anyway, with likely conservative Democrats also being added from NC and Kentucky. We could lose one reliable Democratic vote and still have a pretty strong, filibuster-proof majority.

  2. Do you really think that Mike Castle is scared of John Carney? I doubt it. I imagine that if he retires or runs for the Senate it’ll be for personal reasons, not because Steve Israel is some recruiting genius.

  3. I think more wheels would turn for Biden than they would for Carney.  He’s the Vice President’s son, Obama and Biden would definitely make an appearance for him and a senate seat, not so much a house seat.  Starting only down 8 points here will be easy to make up in the big picture.  

  4. But, in the worst case, if Castle beats Beau and joins the Senate, would he really vote on strict party line?  I mean there wouldn’t be much incentive for him to do so since it’s likely that he’ll be in it for just one term…

  5. Why would he go from a tough race to a tougher race, when he’s been sleepwalking through Congressional races for the last decade?

  6. Good news all around.

    1. It basically hands us a House seat if he leaves it open.

    2. I’m not convinced Castle would have a clear path in the republican primary for the Senate race if he runs.  You just know the Club for Growth and other right-wing groups would set out to destroy Castle.

    3. Castle would be an underdog even if he did win the Republican nomination for Senate.

  7. Nah, that’s just bluster.  Castle is retiring.  If he’s not sure whether he can beat Carney, he definitely isn’t sure about his ability to beat Biden for the Senate seat.  The DCCC might not spend heavily against Castle, given his ability to hold that entrenched House seat, but the DSCC would unleash hell on the guy if he tried to take a Senate seat from us.

    This reminds me of former Senator Chuck Hagel “almost” running for president, when in fact he had no intention to do so and was basically done with politics.

    Former Rep. Tom Davis also chose to abandon the House after he realized the long odds he faced in a Senate race, or if he chose to run for re-election instead.

    I would bet money Castle isn’t a candidate for anything next November, with statements like that, and fundraising like this.

  8. He probably will retire, but that does not mean he doesn’t want move up to the Senate for one last legacy run. He’s probably keeping the door just in case, but I doubt he will do it.

    Besides, like someone said earlier, the DSCC will tear the !@#$%^* out of him if ran. They aren’ going to go easy on him – on the other hand, if he ran for reelection, the DCCC might be inclined against run hard against him. But as someone sai earlier, his fundraising isn’t good.

    My prediction: If He retires, and win both the Senate and House seat. If he doesn’t, will lose one or the either.  

  9. I think a House race would be the hardest to win. Beau Biden will get major help from the White House, DNC and DSCC. He may not be a better candidate but he will get much more national help and effort beacuse of the shear embarrassment of the Vice Presidents son losing. A lot of national money would come into play and Castle’s got plenty on his record to attack (stimulus, budget to name two). And so I honestly can’t see us losing a Castle / Biden race while I could easily see Castle beating Carney.

    Hopefully he’ll just retire and spare us all the trouble.  

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