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UT-Gov: Herbert Faces 2010 Special Election

by: Crisitunity

Mon May 18, 2009 at 7:25 PM EDT

One consequence of Gov. Jon Huntsman's sudden decision to accept Barack Obama's offer of the position of Ambassador to China is that the newly-promoted governor, current Lt. Gov. Gary Herbert, will need to face the voters in 2010. Huntsman's term would have taken him through 2012, but Utah law is such that a replacement Governor newly elevated in a term's first year faces a special election at the next regularly scheduled general election. (Remember, Huntsman was just re-elected in 2008.)

Herbert seems to be giving every indication that he will not be a placeholder and run for re-election in 2010 (for the remaining two years of the term; if he won, he'd still have to run again in the regularly-scheduled 2012 election if he wanted a full term). However, history may not be on his side. Lt. Gov. Olene Walker took over as Utah Governor in 2003 after Mike Leavitt became the Bush-era EPA Administrator, but because of Utah's weird nominating procedures (previously discussed here), she didn't even make it into the primary for her 2004 re-election, finishing third at the convention. (The top two finishers at the nominating convention advance to the primary, unless one candidate receives more than 60% at the convention, in which case he or she moves straight to the general.)

Herbert does not sound as out-of-step with activist base that dominates the nominating conventions as the somewhat moderate Walker, so he may still survive. He may still face some top-shelf competition, starting with AG Mark Shurtleff, last seen screwing up the announcement of his Senate primary candidacy against Bob Bennett via Twitter. Although Shurtleff is rumored be "Senate or bust," he may be tempted to run against the less-known Herbert rather than longtime institution Bennett. (Another Bennett challenger, Tim Bridgewater, may be also interested in swapping races.)

There's also the possibility that a decent Democrat might be more attracted to a chaotic, off-year gubernatorial election. That probably wouldn't include Rep. Jim Matheson (who'd still have to give up his seat in 2010 to run), but it could include Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon or Salt Lake City Mayor Ralph Becker, who could run without giving up their current seats. While Swing State Project is skeptical of any Democrats' chances in this race (it is, after all, Utah), there is enough fluidity here, especially on the GOP side, for us to add this as a "Race to Watch" to our 2010 Gubernatorial Race Ratings.

UPDATE (James): The Salt Lake Tribune touched bases with both Corroon and Jim Matheson, and they both are refusing to rule anything out:

A run for governor "is certainly not something I was planning for," said Corroon, who "would never say never." He says his "intent" is to finish his second term as Salt Lake County mayor.

Matheson says he will weigh his options. "In politics you always look at your opportunities," he said, "and that's what I always do."

Crisitunity :: UT-Gov: Herbert Faces 2010 Special Election
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if Bennett's strongest potential rivals
in the Senate race do switch over to the newly required Gov. special election instead, then Bob Bennett would really owe Huntsman and President Obama a huge thank you. Whodathunk?

(I'm assuming that one can't run in both the special Gov. race, and the regular Senate race. But Utah Repubs seem to have some odd rules)

Wow to think UT would ever have a "Race to Watch"
But hey, we have shown that Democrats can win everywhere. I hope Kaine and others will realize the symbolic value of winning the governor's mansion in Utah (especially considering the BS we'll hear if the GOP wins in tough states for us like OK, TN, KS, WY, etc.)

WY might be a shoe in for Democrats
and Democrats have very strong candidates lined up in OK

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
I don't think Wyoming looks to promising, unless we get Frudenthal.
However, Oklahoma is going to be a race to watch.  What's the word on the two candidates we've got there?  Either one of them stand out?

[ Parent ]
This I didn't know
I didn't think gubernatorial special elections happened anywhere.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

Had Jim McGreevey resigned immediately
in 2004 rather than on November 15, there would have been a special election in 2004 for the last year of his term.

[ Parent ]
What about Rocky Anderson?
He doesn't hold office any more, so he could run at no cost to his political future.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

He's a known face
That's a hindrance in Utah. You can run better if there's no memory of you doing anything Democratic.

Rocky might win SLC, but he couldn't crack 45% statewide. 40% might be a big ask.

[ Parent ]
I consider myself to be an optimist, but I think the Utah gubernatorial race is out of reach for Team Blue, even with someone like Matheson as our nominee.

Hopefully the DNC and the DGA will use their resources in places where we can win, like Oklahoma.

Does the DGA get all that involved really?
Surely they don't get involved in recruitment, but do they participate in fundraising?

[ Parent ]
The question is really
who is the designated candidate of the Mormon elite/patriarchy? Gov. Huntsman's father, Jon Sr., bears particular attention here, as he's one of the most powerful men in Utah (Multi-millionaire and Mormon elder), has played kingmaker before, and has a vested interest in his son's successor. (Also, he was the main reason that Walker lost the primary, i.e. he wanted his son to be governor, so he snapped his fingers and she came in third.)
The winning candidate in any Utah election, but especially a Republican primary, is the candidate of the Mormon establishment. I don't know anything about Herbert per se, but he seems the type to get such an endorsement, otherwise Jon Jr. wouldn't have picked him in the first place.

As for Bennett, he's the establishment candidate, and will be fine, no matter what the fringe thinks. (There will probably come a time when the CrazyBase in Utah does become powerful enough to overthrow the established order of things, but that won't be soon.)

Also, is it just me, or did Utah borrow the same legal "experts" who made Washington and Louisiana election law such a back-asswards morass? I'm halfway convinced that back in the nineties every big state hired the same questionable legal "expert" to rewrite their election law in much the same way the Democratic establishment used to trust their political strategy to Bob Shrum despite his impressive record of failure. Ah well.  

What of demographics?
A quick look at the Census suggests that Hispanic population in Utah is up from 9.0 to nearly 12% now.

As the demographics emerge - at what point would Ds become competitive in Utah?

When Mormons stop being over 65% of voters
And when Mormons stop voting about 80-20% Republican.

[ Parent ]
Dang. Those are some brutal numbers.
Even though I found your comment somewhat amusing, somehow.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]

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