McIntyre

isn't a big improvement over Shuler. He's got a worse voting record then Allen Boyd. I'd prefer pretty much any other candidate over those two. We've lost our two best candidates (Martin and Cooper), how about Marshall or Blue? They've wanted to be Senator in the past, why not now with much better odds?

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by: Populista @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 14:45:43 PM CDT

Say nobody wants to run

But either McIntyre or Shuler does. Would people put up with it if it meant defeating Burr?

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by: conspiracy @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 14:48:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hell yes

ANY Democrat is better than Burr I really trust people on this blog to be smarter than that. If not, they need to reevaluate their priorities. I mean I understand and agree that we could do better than those two both ideologically and electorally but jeez if you want X candidate or bust you're not really thinking pragmatically.  

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog

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by: fitchfan28 @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 15:01:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Put up with it, sure

But I think they could probably kiss goodbye to any hope of netroots support.

The netroots trend left and McIntyre and Shuler have a record, so they can't claim to be further left than they are in the way Jon Tester did. Plus there seems to be a trend across the blogosphere (even at Dkos, which as the biggest blog wields disproportionate influence, but especially at FDL, which is probably #2), beginning in 2007 but especially once it became clear 60 votes didn't solve everything, to focus on only the best candidates.

That's not going to kill their candidacy. God knows both could get PAC cash, money from the North Carolina banking sector and tobacco cash. But I doubt that they'd have much of an online presence or a great activist-led ground operation, and I'd expect a 20% floor even for a wholly unqualified primary challenger from the left.

Personally, I think my attitude would be effective indifference towards the race. I'd be happy to see Burr beaten, sure, but I wouldn't stay up to find out the results.

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by: Englishlefty @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 15:12:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Absolutely

Half a loaf is better than nothing.

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by: sicembears @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 15:23:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I would vote for Shuler or McIntyre, but I will hold my nose

I'm not very keen on either of these guys.  I just can't get excited over Shuler or McIntyre.  I would take McIntyre over Shuler, but mainly because McIntyre has been in the House for 12+ years and Shuler has only started his 2nd term, plus there's a good chance that we would lose his district plus he would lose against Burr.  I've lived in NC for all my 38 years, and I just don't see the Democrats being very enthusiastice with supporting Shuler.  Shuler is a Democrat because his grandmother told him that he should be a Democrat.  He would not be a very reliable vote for the Dems, and if he got fed up with D.C., I could see him switch his affiliation to a Republican.  His voting record in the House is just not what I like to see from a Democrat.  He's a fine representative for a conservative district, but he's probably a bit to the right of the NC electorate.

McIntyre is not as conservative, but he really doesn't excite me much either.  Sure, I'd vote for him, but he will have a hard time exciting the Democratic base.  

The news about Grier Martin disappoints me...I like Grier.  The other candidate that I would like would be Richard Moore, but I don't know how much damage he created for himself last year because of his fight with Bev Perdue for the Dem. nomination for Governor.  I voted for Richard, but from what I've seen and from talking to an elected state official, many Democrats are fairly upset with Richard right now.  He gave a lukewarm endorsement at best for Bev Perdue.

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 16:12:02 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sounds like the best thing for Moore

Would be to get in and for Shuler or McIntyre to join him thus helping the base warm to him again pretty quickly.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 16:17:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Of course

We're hardly a bunch of purity ideologues on SSP, we want to win, and anytime the Democrat is an improvement over the Republican, it's an easy call.

Given Burr, you'd have to search long and hard to find a Democrat who would actually make him look good.

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by: skaje @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 17:20:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

CA-32 Primary Today!

Chu seems to be seen as the slight favorite (especially given Cedillo's, umm, issues), though anything could happen--even Pleitz coming up the middle.

Oh, and all of Gov. Hoover's ballot propositions will be up for defeat as well. How much money could have been saved in the budget by not going through this waste of time?

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by: Nico @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 15:06:40 PM CDT

Annette Taddeo

I was just thinking yesterday that she would be great to follow in Sink's foot steps.  She was a great candidate for Congress and it was too bad the clowns we already have in Congress from South Florida didn't give her and our other two South Florida candidates more support.  I hope she pulls the trigger on this.

Check out Blue Arkansas:
http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/

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by: ARDem @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 15:16:51 PM CDT

Yeah, what I saw of her was pretty excellent

She seems to have a great profile for the new Florida.

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by: andgarden @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 15:33:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Definitely

She ran surprisingly strongly in a race where she received almost no support, getting the same numbers as Lincoln Diaz-Balart's (admittedly pretty ethically dodgy) opponent.

Plus she's a pretty strong progressive. She'd certainly be a nice option to have on the bench for future statewide races.

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by: Englishlefty @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 15:36:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Tom Davis is one of the smartest Republican strategists

We're lucky that he's reduced to commenting in Roll Call.  

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by: andgarden @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 15:30:36 PM CDT

You're giving him too much credit

I have yet to hear him say anything we didn't say months earlier  ;)

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by: Andrew @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 17:01:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ensign: Very Disappointing Poll Numbers

The same Nevada poll also has favorable/unfavorable numbers for Ensign.  I was extremely disappointed and surprised at how well he polled:  53-18 (net +35 favorability).  Those are unbelievably good numbers, near unbeatable-like favorability numbers for an incumbent.  I had thought Ensign would be our top target in 2012 (and one of our very few potential targets) considering that he didn't perform that strongly against a weak challenger in 2006, Nevada has moved blue very fast in the last few years, and he is probably the most ideologically out of step with his state of all Republican senators.  It's still a long ways away of course and things can change, but I never imagined he is that popular.  Any Nevadans that can explain this?

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by: sicembears @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 15:32:49 PM CDT

Damn. We really have won all the Senate seats, if Ensign is the most out-of-step Republican left.

Leave out the retirees, Gregg and Voinovich, and you're right.  Grassley is competitive for the title, I guess.  Nevada really swung very far left for Obama-McCain; I'm not yet confident that will be durable.  But for the time being, Ensign probably is the most out-of-step GOP senator left.

Weird.

We, meanwhile, have a huge list on our side, starting with Byron Dorgan and Bob Byrd.

Oh, and I am relieved to realize that it's probably Susan Collins who is farthest out of step on the other side.  Whew.

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by: texas dem @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 15:46:05 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ensign has been to Iowa

If he is thinking about running for president part of me wonders if he believes he will struggle to get reelected despite these numbers. Particulary if Obama is carrying the state in 2012 by similar numbers to last year.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 16:15:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ensign's up in 2012

not 2010, so it's possible he won't be running for re-election to the Senate in 2012. And if he runs for President in 2012, doesn't get any traction in the GOP primary, and returns to Nevada before the filing deadline, that's likely to hurt him too (a la Dodd 2008).

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by: Crisitunity @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 16:24:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

What I meant

Being on the same ballot as Obama.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 16:28:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

a Dem should primary Reid

He's been an ineffective majority leader. Poll numbers like this will only encourage him to be even more cautious and centrist. Also he'll be 71 at the end of this term. Shelley Berkley would be a good candidate. I hope she realizes if she ever wants to move up 2010 is her only chance. She's a New Dem, not a liberal bombthrower, but she'll still be better than Reid. From now on the majority leader should be a liberal from a safe state, like Leahy.  

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by: duffman @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 16:54:00 PM CDT

I agree with the last line

And vote for Schumer. The primary is a pipe dream.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 16:59:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yeah unfortunately

I had no idea his numbers were that horrible.  He's lucky he has nobody running against him.

But damn, I'd love to see him lose.  I just hate him that much as Majority Leader and now I see why he is that way, his state absolutely hates him and we're stuck with him because he's the Majority Leader.

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by: Andrew @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 17:07:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yeah

The left hates him and so does the right.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 17:08:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

He's not been that terrible and I don't know that we'd beat him

But a primary challenge from the left based specifically on his uselessness as a majority leader might make him more focused on winning a few more cloture votes. And the stress might also push him out and let Schumer (who's far too corporate-friendly for my liking but doesn't suffer from delusions of collegiality) take over.

Or Durbin, although the Illinois thing may preclude that, unfortunately.

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by: Englishlefty @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 17:24:23 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Durbin is the way to go

Who cares if he hails from IL? He's a great leader who stands up for what he believes in and would be a definite improvement over Reid.  

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by: fitchfan28 @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 18:05:23 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'd go for him

Especially as I trust his progressive bona-fides more than Obama's.

Still, there would be dissent raised and Schumer got enough Senators elected that if it wasn't a coronation he could easily sweep in.

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by: Englishlefty @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 19:16:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

i'm glad the posters here are not senators

the most popular guy on most football teams is the backup quarterback, who everyone thinks would do better than the incumbent.

it's really hard to be the majority leader.  balancing the wishes of 59 senators, the speaker, and, most importantly, the president, is an almost impossible act.

does anyone really think that durbin or schumer would be leading to significantly different votes...or ignoring the filibuster, whihc is a part of our process which will probably not change in any significant way in our lifetimes?

and someone here hopes he loses? with all due respect, that's crazy.

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by: st paul sage @ Wed May 20, 2009 at 14:38:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I dont want to get off topic here

but I missed yesterdays conversation about Michigan redistricting in the Daily Digest.  12-2 Democrat is absolutely impossible, but, inspired by IHateBush's comments to my last redistricting Michigan diary, I think that I may have succesfully created a workable 11-3 map that, in a neutral year, would probably support all 11 Democrats.  It's really ugly (although there isnt any touch points or snaking tendrils).  But its better looking that say, Florida or Pennsylvania.  I'll diary it soon.  

"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)

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by: Menhen @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 17:59:25 PM CDT

Look forward to it.

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by: 23Progressive @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 18:33:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You know what would be a great KY redistricting idea

connect Eastern Kentucky where it is Appilacian and very West Virginia like with Lexington and Frankfurt.  That'd create a good Dem leaning district at the local level no doubt and should be no problem for a Dem to hold.

Dem Gov, Dem House, Rep Senate, maybe.  It'd shore up both incumbents anyway.

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by: Andrew @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 22:02:32 PM CDT